Changes In Case Mix Research Articles

Commercial inpatient hospital price growth driven by system affiliation and nonprofit-status hospitals

Abstract As policymakers continue to grapple with rising health care costs and prices, understanding trends and variations in inpatient prices among hospital characteristics is an important benchmark to allow policymakers to craft targeted policies. In this study, we provide descriptive trends on variation in inpatient prices paid by commercial health plans stratified by hospital characteristics using data from Health Care Cost Institute's employer-sponsored insured claims data. Our analyses found evidence of considerable variation among inpatient price levels and growth among system affiliation and profitability. Prices among system-affiliated hospitals grew from $14 281.74 in 2012 to $20 731.95 in 2021, corresponding to a 45.2% increase during this period. On the other hand, prices among independent hospitals grew more slowly, from $13 460.50 in 2012 to $18 196.90 in 2021, corresponding to a 35.2% increase. We did not observe a similar trend in growth rates among case mix index by hospital characteristics, implying that differential inpatient price growth is not driven by changes in case mix by hospital characteristics. Heterogeneity in hospital prices and price growth by type of hospital suggests that public and private policymakers aiming to rein in health spending should consider policies that address this variation.

Temporal Trends in Mortality of Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis in the United Kingdom, 1988-2019.

Rationale: Sepsis is a frequent cause of ICU admission and mortality. Objectives: To evaluate temporal trends in the presentation and outcomes of patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis and to assess the contribution of changing case mix to outcomes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to 261 ICUs in the United Kingdom during 1988-1990 and 1996-2019 with nonsurgical sepsis. Measurements and Main Results: A total of 426,812 patients met study inclusion criteria. The patients had a median (interquartile range) age of 66 (53-75) years, and 55.6% were male. The most common sites of infection were respiratory (60.9%), genitourinary (11.5%), and gastrointestinal (10.3%). Compared with patients in 1988-1990, patients in 2017-2019 were older (median age, 66 vs. 63 yr), were less acutely ill (median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II acute physiology score, 14 vs. 20), and more often had genitourinary sepsis (13.4% vs. 2.0%). Hospital mortality decreased from 54.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.0-58.1%) in 1988-1990 to 32.4% (95% CI, 32.1-32.7%) in 2017-2019, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.54-0.75). The adjusted absolute hospital mortality reduction from 1988-1990 to 2017-2019 was 8.8% (95% CI, 5.6-12.1). Thus, of the observed 22.2-percentage point reduction in hospital mortality, 13.4 percentage points (60% of total reduction) were explained by case mix changes, whereas 8.8 percentage points (40% of total reduction) were not explained by measured factors and may be a result of improvements in ICU management. Conclusions: Over a 30-year period, mortality for ICU admissions with sepsis decreased substantially. Although changes in case mix accounted for the majority of observed mortality reduction, there was an 8.8-percentage point reduction in mortality not explained by case mix.

Impact of COVID-19 on urgent care diagnoses and the new AXR metric.

We examined the antibiotic prescribing rate for respiratory diagnoses (AXR) before and after onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in urgent care clinics. At the onset, AXR declined substantially due to changes in case mix. Using AXR as a stewardship metric requires monitoring of changes in case mix.

Explaining the Extraordinary Decline in Chicago’s Homicide Arrest Rates, 1965 to 1994 and Beyond: Trends in Case Mix Versus Standards for Arrest

Chicago’s homicide arrest rate dropped from 91% in 1965 to 57% in 1994 and dropped still lower in recent years. This pattern mirrors the trend in the national homicide clearance rate. A plausible explanation for this great decline is the trend in homicide case mix, which arguably has made it intrinsically more difficult to solve homicide cases. Our analysis describes the change in case mix for the period 1965 to 2020 and analyzes the effect on the arrest rate for the first 30 years of this period, all by use of a unique homicide case microdata set. We document the large changes in case mix: for example, the percentage of all homicides in which a male victim was shot outdoors increased from 18% (1965) to 69% (2020). But the change in case mix does not account for Chicago’s great decline during the earlier decades, as we demonstrate by use of a novel arrest rate index. In fact, the arrest rates in each of the categories defined by location, sex, and weapon type exhibited similar declines through 1994. (Subsequent years of arrest data are unavailable for now.) Our preferred explanation for the great decline is that the operational standard for making an arrest increased during this period. That interpretation is well supported by evidence explaining the corresponding national trend, though direct evidence is lacking for Chicago. This interpretation challenges the use of the arrest rate as a police performance indicator and offers a positive interpretation of the great decline.

Trends in mortality outcomes of hospital-admitted injury in Victoria, Australia 2001–2021

Due to advancements in trauma treatment methods, it is expected that survivability of hospital-admitted injuries gradually improves over time. However, measurement of trends in all-cause injury survivability is complicated by changes in case mix, demographics and hospital admission policy. The aim of this study is to determine trends in hospital-admitted injury survivability in Victoria, Australia, taking case-mix and patient demographics into account, and to explore the potential impact of changes in hospital admission practices. Injury admission records (ICD-10-AM codes S00-T75 and T79) between 1 July 2001 and 30 June 2021 were extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset. ICD-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS) calculated from Survival Risk Ratios for Victoria was used as an injury severity measure. Death-in-hospital was modelled as a function of financial year, adjusting for age group, sex and ICISS, as well as admission type and length of stay. There were 19,064 in-hospital deaths recorded in 2,362,991 injury-related hospital admissions in 2001/02–2020/21. Rates of in-hospital death decreased from 1.00% (866/86,998) in 2001/02 to 0.72% (1115/154,009) in 2020/21. ICISS was a good predictor of in-hospital death with an area-under-the-curve of 0.91. In-hospital death was associated with financial year (Odds Ratio 0.950 [95%CI 0.947, 0.952]), in logistic regression modelling adjusted for ICISS, age and sex. In stratified modelling, decreasing injury death trends were observed in each of the top 10 injury diagnoses (together constituting > 50% of cases). Admission type and length of stay were added to the model: these did not alter the effect of year on in-hospital death. In conclusion, a 28% reduction in rates of in-hospital deaths in Victoria was observed over the 20-year study period, in spite of aging of the injured population. This amounts to 1222 additional lives saved in 2020/21 alone. Survival Risk Ratios therefore change markedly over time. A better understanding of the drivers of positive change will help to further reduce the injury burden in Victoria.

COVID-19 containment measures impact utilization and provision of healthcare in Europe

Abstract Background The COVID-19 containment measures, implemented to curb the pandemic, impacted health of children and adolescents by numerous pathways. We present the impact on health care utilization and provision. Methods A systematic review on secondary health impact is ongoing (PubMed, PsychInfo, Embase). Literature is screened (title, abstract, full-text) by 2 researchers, and data of interest extracted systematically.. Inclusion criteria are age (0 - 25 yrs.), exposure: containment measures, outcome: secondary health outcome, and European data origin. Results Jan. 2020 - Aug. 2021 10112 studies were identified, 337 were included. n = 60 were on health care utilization and provision. Utilization studies relied on objective hospital or registry data, care provision studies more often on survey data (professionals, parents). Data yields a large but varying decrease in emergency department visits during the lockdown: Italy ∼75%, Spain ∼65%, France ∼60%, and Germany ∼64%, and a substantial change in case mix and severity compared to comparable pre-COVID. Specialized and primary pediatric practices report that elective interventions were postponed, state of the art diagnostics withheld, and rehabilitation services disrupted. Vaccinations in infants, children, and adolescents dropped during the lockdown inversely proportional to children's age. Studies repeatedly suggest patients’ health services avoidance out of fear of infection and stay-at-home rules.Results on catch-up utilization and provision to follow (ongoing study). Conclusions COVID-19 measures exerted a measurable impact on health utilization and provision in children and adolescents. The utilization was comparatively lower and service provision disrupted across Europe. So far little can be said about a potential recovery in terms of catch-up of visits, diagnostics, or treatments. Analyses of the long-term health impact of the observed effects is recommended and can serve to improve future pandemic preparedness. Key messages • COVID-19 confinement measures had measurable secondary health impact on children and adolescents. • Data on catch-up healthcare is important to establish long term impact and learnings.

The unintended consequences of hospital strikes on patient outcomes evidence from multiple strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service.

Hospital strikes in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) are becoming increasingly frequent. This paper analyses the effect of different health professionals' strikes (physicians, nurses, and diagnostic and therapeutic technicians (DTT) - DTT) on patient outcomes and hospital activity. Patient-level data, comprising all NHS hospital admissions in mainland Portugal from 2012 to 2018, is used together with a comprehensive strike dataset with almost 130 protests. Data suggests that hospital operations are partially disrupted during strikes, with sharp reductions in surgical admissions (up to 54%) and a decline on both inpatient and outpatient care admissions. The model controls for hospital characteristics, time and regional fixed effects, and case-mix changes. Results suggest a modest increase in hospital mortality limited for patients admitted during physicians' strikes, and a slight reduction in mortality for patients already at the hospital when a strike takes place. Increases in readmission rates and length of stay are also found. Results suggest that hospitals and legal minimum staffing levels defined during strikes are not flexible enough to accommodate sudden disruptions in staffing, regardless of hospital quality in periods without strikes.

Abstract No. 234 Interventional radiology case mix changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented radiology volume loss and substantial changes in case mix. This study seeks to identify the specific sources of procedural volume loss and recovery in a large academic system at the epicenter of the pandemic.

Trends in prevalence of chronic disease and multimorbidity in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND:New case-mix tools from the Canadian Institute for Health Information offer a novel way of exploring the prevalence of chronic disease and multimorbidity using diagnostic data. We took a comprehensive approach to determine whether the prevalence of chronic disease and multimorbidity has been rising in Ontario, Canada.METHODS:In this observational study, we applied case-mix methodology to a population-based cohort. We used 10 years of patient-level data (fiscal years 2008/09 to 2017/18) from multiple care settings to compute the rolling 5-year prevalence of 85 chronic diseases and multimorbidity (i.e., the co-occurrence of 2 or more diagnoses). Diseases were further classified based on type and severity. We report both crude and age- and sex-standardized trends.RESULTS:The number of patients with chronic disease increased by 11.0% over the 10-year study period to 9.8 million in 2017/18, and the number with multimorbidity increased 12.2% to 6.5 million. Overall increases from 2008/09 to 2017/18 in the crude prevalence of chronic conditions and multimorbidity were driven by population aging. After adjustments for age and sex, the prevalence of patients with ≥ 1 chronic conditions decreased from 70.2% to 69.1%, and the prevalence of multimorbidity decreased from 47.1% to 45.6%. This downward trend was concentrated in minor and moderate diseases, whereas the prevalence of many major chronic diseases rose, along with instances of extreme multimorbidity (≥ 8 conditions). Age- and sex-standardized resource intensity weights, which reflect relative expected costs associated with patient diagnostic profiles, increased 4.6%.INTERPRETATION:Evidence of an upward trend in the prevalence of chronic disease was mixed. However, the change in case mix toward more serious conditions, along with increasing patient resource intensity weights overall, may portend a future need for population health management and increased health system spending above that predicted by population aging.

Impact of early Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic on pediatric cardiac surgery in China

ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide an insight into the impact of the early outbreak of the novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 on the care management for patients with congenital heart disease. MethodsThis study respectively enrolled a cohort of surgical patients who underwent surgery in 2018 (group I), 2019 (group II), and 2020 (group III) and a cohort of follow-up patients who had follow-up in 2017 (group A), 2018 (group B), and 2019 (group C) in 13 children hospitals. ResultsDuring the Coronavirus Disease 2019 era, there was a significant decrease in total surgical volume and a change in case mix in terms of an increase in the proportion of emergency operations. Decrease in migration scale index was correlated to the decrease in both surgical volume (r = 0.64, P = .02) and outpatient visit volume (r = 0.61, P = .03). There was a significantly higher proportion of patients who had follow-up through the internet or phone in group C (26.4% vs 9.6% in group B and 8.9% in group A; P < .0001). There was no statistical difference in death or rehospitalization among the 3 follow-up groups (P = .49). There was higher parents' anxiety score (P < .0001) and more use of telemedicine (P = .004) in group C compared with groups A and B. ConclusionsThe Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic has resulted in a considerable decrease in total surgical volume and a change of case mix, which seems to be related to the strict traffic ban. Follow-up through the online medical service appears to be an effective alternative to the conventional method.

Association of Skilled Nursing Facility Participation in a Bundled Payment Model With Institutional Spending for Joint Replacement Surgery

Medicare recently concluded a national voluntary payment demonstration, Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) model 3, in which skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) assumed accountability for patients' Medicare spending for 90 days from initial SNF admission. There is little evidence on outcomes associated with this novel payment model. To evaluate the association of BPCI model 3 with spending, health care utilization, and patient outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries undergoing lower extremity joint replacement (LEJR). Observational difference-in-difference analysis using Medicare claims from 2013-2017 to evaluate the association of BPCI model 3 with outcomes for 80 648 patients undergoing LEJR. The preintervention period was from January 2013 through September 2013, which was 9 months prior to enrollment of the first BPCI cohort. The postintervention period extended from 3 months post-BPCI enrollment for each SNF through December 2017. BPCI SNFs were matched with control SNFs using propensity score matching on 2013 SNF characteristics. Admission to a BPCI model 3-participating SNF. The primary outcome was institutional spending, a combination of postacute care and hospital Medicare-allowed payments. Additional outcomes included other categories of spending, changes in case mix, admission volume, home health use, length of stay, and hospital use within 90 days of SNF admission. There were 448 BPCI SNFs with 18 870 LEJR episodes among 16 837 patients (mean [SD] age, 77.5 [9.4] years; 12 173 [72.3%] women) matched with 1958 control SNFs with 72 005 LEJR episodes among 63 811 patients (mean [SD] age, 77.6 [9.4] years; 46 072 [72.2%] women) in the preintervention and postintervention periods. Seventy-nine percent of matched BPCI SNFs were for-profit facilities, 85% were located in an urban area, and 85% were part of a larger corporate chain. There were no systematic changes in patient case mix or episode volume between BPCI-participating SNFs and controls during the program. Institutional spending decreased from $17 956 to $15 746 in BPCI SNFs and from $17 765 to $16 563 in matched controls, a differential decrease of 5.6% (-$1008 [95% CI, -$1603 to -$414]; P < .001). This decrease was related to a decline in SNF days per beneficiary (from 26.2 to 21.3 days in BPCI SNFs and from 26.3 to 23.4 days in matched controls; differential change, -2.0 days [95% CI, -2.9 to -1.1]). There was no significant change in mortality or 90-day readmissions. Among Medicare patients undergoing lower extremity joint replacement from 2013-2017, the BPCI model 3 was significantly associated with a decrease in mean institutional spending on episodes initiated by admission to SNFs. Further research is needed to assess bundled payments in other clinical contexts.

Changes in Opioid Overdose Emergency Encounters Associated with Expansion of Wisconsin Medicaid to Childless Adults in Poverty

The purpose of this study was to measure changes in the payer mix and incidence of emergency department (ED) opioid-related overdose encounters after an April 2014 expansion of Medicaid to childless adults led to a 43% increase in Medicaid coverage for men and 8% for women statewide. We explored two competing hypotheses using data visualization and comparative interrupted time-series analysis (CITS): (a) expanded eligibility for Medicaid is associated with a change in payer mix only and (b) sociodemographic groups that gained Medicaid eligibility were more likely to use ED services for opioid overdose. Data included encounters at all Wisconsin nonfederal hospitals over 23 quarters from 2010 to 2015 and American Community Survey estimates of pre- and post-policy Medicaid eligibility by sex and age. We found an increase in the share of opioid-related ED visits covered by Medicaid for men and women ages 19-29 and for men ages 30-49 following the expansion. The number of visits increased substantially in April 2014 for men ages 30-49, with Medicaid-covered visits driving this result. We found little evidence of an increase in overall visits for other age groups for either men or women. The relationship between Medicaid expansion and opioid ED use is complex. Changes in case mix and increased access to care likely both play a role in the overall increase in these ED visits. Being uninsured may be an important barrier to seeking emergency care for opioid-related overdoses.

A Composite Risk Score for Capsule Complications Based on Data from the Swedish National Cataract Register: Relation to Surgery Volumes

To investigate case mix in relation to capsule complication, possible associations between case mix and operation volume, and change in case mix over time. Register-based study. Swedish patients who underwent cataract surgery between 2007 and2016. Demographics and data on ocular comorbidity, intraoperative difficulties, and capsule complications were registered from 2007 to 2016 and analyzed retrospectively in relation to coded data on individual surgeons' operation volume. Single factor analysis and logistic regression were performed, and a composite risk score was created. Risk of capsule complication, given as adjusted and composite odds ratio in relation to cataract surgery volume. Preoperative and intraoperative variables significantly associated with capsule complications were best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) ≤0.1 (decimal, adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.82; P < 0.001); pseudoexfoliation (PEX) (aOR, 1.53; P < 0.001); sight-threatening ocular comorbidity other than age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, or cornea guttata (aOR, 1.35; P= 0.006); use of Trypan blue (aOR, 1.76; P< 0.001); mechanical pupil dilation (aOR, 1.36; P= 0.024); and iris hooks at the rhexis margin (aOR, 6.99; P <0.001). The composite risk score was 3.09 ± 6.40 (mean ± standard deviation) for patients with capsule complication and 1.28 ± 1.66 for uncomplicated procedures (P < 0.001). High-volume cataract surgeons (≥500 procedures yearly) had a significantly lower composite risk score (mean risk score ≤1.28; range, 1.01-2.02) compared with low- and medium-volume cataract surgeons (1.34 ± 0.56; range, 1.00-4.55 and 1.49 ± 0.58; range, 1.01-5.19), respectively. During the period 2007-2016, the proportion of patients aged >88 years, patients with BCVA ≤0.1, and patients with intraoperative difficulties decreased. Case mix, as calculated from a composite risk score based on preoperative and intraoperative parameters registered in the National Cataract Register (NCR), may contribute to the decrease in capsule complications from 2007 to 2016 and the lower complication rate observed in cases managed by high-volume cataract surgeons.

Case-mix affects calibration of cardiosurgical severity scores.

Prognostic models are often used to assess the quality of healthcare. Several scores were developed to predict mortality after cardiac surgery, but none has reached optimal performance in subsequent validations. We validate the most used scores (EUROSCORE I and II, STS, and ACEF) on a cohort of cardiac-surgery patients, assessing their robustness against case-mix changes. The scores were validated on 14,559 patients admitted to 16 Italian cardiosurgical ICUs participating to Margherita-Prosafe project in 2014 and 2015. Calibration was assessed through Hosmer-Lemeshow Test, standardized mortality ratio, and GiViTI calibration test and belt. Discrimination was measured by the area under the ROC curve. The study included 10,317 patients who were eligible to the calculation of the STS Score (4156 isolated valve, 4681 isolated CABG and 1480 single valve and CABG) which calibrated well in these subgroups. The ACEF Score and EUROSCORE I and II were available for 14,139, and 14,071 patients, respectively. EUROSCORE I significantly overestimated mortality; EUROSCORE II calibrated well overall, but underestimated mortality of patients undergoing complex surgery and non-elective ones. The ACEF Score calibrated poorly in elective and non-elective patients. Discrimination was acceptable for all models (AUC>0.70), but not for the ACEF Score. Cardiac surgery scores calibrate poorly when the case-mix of validation and development samples differs. To grant reliability for benchmarking, they should be validated in the clinical settings on which they are applied and updated periodically. Advanced statistical tools are essential for the correct interpretation and application of severity scores.

Physician code creep after the initiation of outpatient volume control program and implications for appropriate ICD-10-CM coding

BackgroundMost studies on the physician code creep (i.e., changes in case mix record-keeping practices to improve reimbursement) have focused on episodes (inpatient hospitalizations or outpatient procedures). Little is known regarding changes in diagnostic coding practices for better reimbursement among a fixed cohort of patients with chronic diseases.MethodsTo examine whether physicians in tertiary medical centers changed their coding practices after the initiation of the Outpatient Volume Control Program (OVCP) in Taiwan, we conducted a retrospective observational study of four patient cohorts (two interventions and two controls) from January 2016 to September 2017 in Taiwan. The main outcomes were the number of outpatient visits with four coding practices: 1) OVCP monitoring code recorded as primary diagnosis; 2) OVCP monitoring code recorded as secondary diagnosis; 3) non-OVCP monitoring code recorded as primary diagnosis; 4) non-OVCP monitoring code recorded as secondary diagnosis.ResultsThe percentage change of the number of visits with coding practice 1 between 2016Q1 and 2017Q3 was − 74% for patients with hypertension and − 73% with diabetes in tertiary medical centers and − 23% and − 17% in clinics, respectively. By contrast, the percentage changes of coding practice 3 were + 73% for patients with hypertension and + 46% for patients with diabetes in tertiary medical centers and − 19% and − 2% in clinics, respectively.ConclusionsPhysician code creep occurred after the initiation of the OVCP. Education regarding appropriate outpatient coding for physicians will be relatively effective when proper coding is related to reimbursement.

Trends in the Medical Complexity and Outcomes of Medicare-insured Patients Undergoing Kidney Transplant in the Years 1998-2014.

Graft and patient survival following kidney transplant are improving. However, the drivers of this trend are unclear. To gain further insight, we set out to examine concurrent changes in pretransplant patient complexity, posttransplant survival, and cause-specific hospitalization. We identified 101 332 Medicare-insured patients who underwent their first kidney transplant in the United States between the years 1998 and 2014. We analyzed secular trends in (1) posttransplant patient and graft survival and (2) posttransplant hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, infection, and cancer using Cox models with year of kidney transplant as the primary exposure of interest. Age, dialysis vintage, body mass index, and the prevalence of a number of baseline medical comorbidities increased during the study period. Despite these adverse changes in case mix, patient survival improved: the unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for death in 2014 (versus 1998) were 0.61 (confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.73) and 0.46 (CI, 0.39-0.55), respectively. For graft failure excluding death with a functioning graft, the unadjusted and multivariable adjusted subdistribution HRs in 2014 versus 1998 were 0.4 (CI, 0.25-0.55) and 0.45 (CI, 0.3-0.6), respectively. There was a marked decrease in hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease following transplant between 1998 and 2011, subdistribution HR 0.51 (CI, 0.43-0.6). Hospitalization for infection remained unchanged, while cancer hospitalization increased modestly. Medicare-insured patients undergoing kidney transplant became increasingly medically complex between 1998 and 2014. Despite this, both patient and graft survival improved during this period. A marked decrease in serious cardiovascular events likely contributed to this positive trend.

Association of Hospital Participation in a Medicare Bundled Payment Program With Volume and Case Mix of Lower Extremity Joint Replacement Episodes

Medicare's Bundled Payments for Care Improvement (BPCI) initiative for lower extremity joint replacement (LEJR) surgery has been associated with a reduction in episode spending and stable-to-improved quality. However, BPCI may create unintended effects by prompting participating hospitals to increase the overall volume of episodes paid for by Medicare, which could potentially eliminate program-related savings or prompt them to shift case mix to lower-risk patients. To evaluate whether hospital BPCI participation for LEJR was associated with changes in overall volume and case mix. Observational study using Medicare claims data and a difference-in-differences method to compare 131 markets (hospital referral regions) with at least 1 BPCI participant hospital (n = 322) and 175 markets with no participating hospitals (n = 1340), accounting for 580 043 Medicare beneficiaries treated before (January 2011-September 2013) and 462 161 after (October 2013-December 2015) establishing the BPCI initiative. Hospital-level case-mix changes were assessed by comparing 265 participating hospitals with a 1:1 propensity-matched set of nonparticipating hospitals from non-BPCI markets. Hospital BPCI participation. Changes in market-level LEJR volume in the before vs after BPCI periods and changes in hospital-level case mix based on demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and utilization factors. Among the 1 717 243 Medicare beneficiaries who underwent LEJR (mean age, 75 years; 64% women; and 95% nonblack race/ethnicity), BPCI participation was not significantly associated with a change in overall market-level volume. The mean quarterly market volume in non-BPCI markets increased 3.8% from 3.8 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries before BPCI to 3.9 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries after BPCI was launched. For BPCI markets, the mean quarterly market volume increased 4.4% from 3.6 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries before BPCI to 3.8 episodes per 1000 beneficiaries after BPCI was launched. The adjusted difference-in-differences estimate between the market types was 0.32% (95% CI, -0.06% to 0.69%; P = .10). Among 20 demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, and utilization factors, BPCI participation was associated with differential changes in hospital-level case mix for only 1 factor, prior skilled nursing facility use (adjusted difference-in-differences estimate, -0.53%; 95% CI, -0.96% to -0.10%; P = .01) in BPCI vs non-BPCI markets. In this observational study of Medicare beneficiaries who underwent LEJR, hospital participation in Bundled Payments for Care Improvement was not associated with changes in market-level lower extremity joint replacement volume and largely was not associated with changes in hospital case mix. These findings may provide reassurance regarding 2 potential unintended effects associated with bundled payments for LEJR.

Improving the forecasting of hospital services: A comparison between projections and actual utilization of hospital services

ObjectivesTo compare projected and observed hospital inpatient use in Belgium and to draw lessons from that comparison. MethodsIn 2005, projections for hospital service use were generated up to 2015, based on demographic change, substitution from inpatient to day care, and, the evolution of the average length of stay (LOS). The accuracy of the forecasts was assessed by comparing projected and observed population size, admissions and inpatient days, average LOS and percentage change in case mix. ResultsThe demographic growth was underestimated. Overall, the baseline projection for hospital admissions was remarkably close to the observed figures but the underlying case mix diverged importantly. With substitution between inpatient and day care, the number of admissions was underestimated by 15%–40%. The number of days was projected to increase in every scenario, whereas a decreasing trend was observed mainly due to the faster decline in average LOS than projected. ConclusionHospital capacity planning is an important component of evidence informed policymaking. Projection results benefit from a well-designed methodology: choice of forecast groups, estimation models, selection criteria, and a sensitivity analysis of the results. To cope with the dynamic and continuously evolving context in which hospitals operate, regular updates to incorporate new data and to reassess estimated trends should be an integral part of the projection framework.

Changes in Case-Mix and Health Outcomes of Medicare Fee-for-Service Beneficiaries and Managed Care Enrollees During the Years 1992-2011.

Recent studies suggest that managed care enrollees (MCEs) and fee-for-service beneficiaries (FFSBs) have become similar in case-mix over time; but comparisons of health outcomes have yielded mixed results. To examine changes in differentials between MCEs and FFSBs both in case-mix and health outcomes over time. Temporal study of the linked Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Medicare data, comparing case-mix and health outcomes between MCEs and FFSBs across 3 time periods: 1992-1998, 1999-2004, and 2005-2011. We used multivariable analysis, stratified by, and pooled across the study periods. The unit of analysis was the person-wave (n=167,204). HRS participants who were also enrolled in Medicare. Outcome measures included self-reported fair/poor health, 2-year self-rated worse health, and 2-year mortality. Our main covariate was a composite measure of multimorbidity (MM), MM0-MM3, defined as the co-occurrence of chronic conditions, functional limitations, and/or geriatric syndromes. The case-mix differential between MCEs and FFSBs persisted over time. Results from multivariable models on the pooled data and incorporating interaction terms between managed care status and study period indicated that MCEs and FFSBs were as likely to die within 2 years from the HRS interview (P=0.073). This likelihood remained unchanged across the study periods. However, MCEs were more likely than FFSBs to report fair/poor health in the third study period (change in probability for the interaction term: 0.024, P=0.008), but less likely to rate their health worse in the last 2 years, albeit at borderline significance (change in probability: -0.021, P=0.059). Despite the persistence of selection bias, the differential in self-reported fair/poor status between MCEs and FFSBs seems to be closing over time.

Change in psychotropic drug use in Norwegian nursing homes between 2004 and 2011.

We conducted a secondary analysis of two cohort studies of two Norwegian nursing home samples (2004/05 and 2010/11). Multivariate models were applied. We found a significant decrease in the prescription of antipsychotic drugs between 2004 and 2011 (0.63 OR, 95%CI = 0.49-0.82, p < 0.001) even after adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical variables. There are only minor changes for the other psychotropic drugs. We found that (1) the use of specific psychotropic drug groups as well as the number of psychotropic drugs used was associated with more affective symptoms and (2) the use of specific psychotropic drug groups as well as the number of psychotropic drugs used was associated with lower scores on the Physical Self-Maintenance scale. This is the first study to show a robust decrease in antipsychotic drug use in nursing home patients with dementia unrelated to possible changes in case mix. The change might be explained by treatment recommendations against its use except in the most severe conditions of aggression or psychosis. Our findings indicate that it takes several years to implement scientific knowledge in clinical practice in nursing homes.