Change-related Risks Research Articles

Relationship between Climate Change and Health Sector Planning

Abstract Climate change and its impact on the environment will have negative effects on health worldwide. National health strategies and plans (NHSPs) play an essential role in defining the future of a country's health system. It remains unknown whether and how NHSPs take climate change and related health risks into account and if this is done by countries that are most affected by climate change. This study aims (1) to understand the content of NHSPs with regard to climate change, (2) to assess the characteristics of countries with NHSPs that take climate change into account and (3) to analyze the factors that influence countries addressing climate change in NHSPs. NHSPs from 101 countries were studied. Keyword searches of NHSPs were used to identify concepts linked to climate change and related health risks. NHSPs were classified into red (no consideration of climate change), yellow (discussion of climate issues) and green (yellow + discussion of adaptation strategies). Two logistic regression models were conducted to analyze the relationship between NHSP categorization and potential explanatory factors, such as wealth (GNI/capita), Climate Risk, Climate Vulnerability or Climate Change-related Health Risk. Climate change is addressed in 66 NHSPs but only 38 NHSPs propose adaptation strategies (green category). African and low-income countries tend to address climate change in their NHSPs more frequently than high-income countries. The regression analysis found that NHSPs are more likely to address climate change (green and yellow) if countries face a higher degree of climate risk and climate vulnerability. No statistically significant association was found for climate change-related health risk and gross national income. Only about one third of all analyzed NHSPs discussed both the effects of climate change and potential adaptation measures. Climate change is addressed mostly by NHSPs of countries strongly affected by climate change. Key messages NHSPs could potentially provide strategic direction for health systems to adapt to climate change. NHSPs of many countries do not discuss how to adapt the health system to climate change.

Epidemiology of infective endocarditis in Hong Kong, 2000–2019

Abstract Background/Introduction Despite improvements in diagnostic and therapeutic strategies, the mortality and morbidity of infective endocarditis (IE) remain high. The incidence, outcomes, and surgical intervention of IE, particularly in an Asian population, are poorly understood and characterised, and the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines revision on the incidence of IE remains unexplored. Purpose We aim to describe temporal changes in the epidemiology and surgical intervention for IE in Hong Kong in the past 2 decades. Methods From a well-validated territory-wide database in Hong Kong, all patients aged 20 or above diagnosed with incident IE from 2000–2019 were included. The temporal trends in the incidence of IE, rate of surgical intervention, and mean Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were characterised using Poisson regression analysis and expressed in annual percentage change (APC [95% CI]). Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the change in incidence after the revision of antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines. The association between surgical intervention and mortality was evaluated using propensity score analytics. Temporal trends in 1-year all-cause mortality were evaluated using multivariable Cox regression. Results A total of 5,657 patients (59.9±18.3 years, 37.2% females) were included. The crude incidence remained was stable from 2000 to 2019 (APC 0.1% [−0.5 to 0.7], P=0.675), and remained unchanged following the revision of antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in 2008 (relative risk of change 0.90 [0.64 to 1.00], P=0.065) (Figure 1). Concordant with an increase in the mean age of IE patients (APC 0.9% [0.8 to 1.1], P<0.001), the comorbidity burden grew substantially from 2000 (CCI 0.55±1.27) to 2019 (CCI 1.09±1.66). The rate of surgical intervention significantly increased from 5.3% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019 (APC 2.7% [1.1 to 4.3], P=0.004), and surgical intervention at 1 year was associated with a 45% risk reduction in 1-year all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio 0.55 [0.46 to 0.65], P<0.001). Nevertheless, the crude all-cause mortality rate at 1 year increased from 27.4% in 2000 to 31.5% in 2019, with no significant trend after adjustment for demographics and comorbidities (APC −0.7% [−1.6 to 0.1], P=0.087). Conclusions In this large cohort of Asian patients, the incidence of IE remained static and did not change following the revision of antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines. Over time, patients with IE have evolved to be older and more comorbid. Despite an increasing rate of surgical intervention that conferred improved survival, the mortality of IE remained irresistibly high. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): The Shenzhen Key Medical DisciplineThe Sanming Project of HKU-SZH Cardiology

Incidence, Microbiology, and Outcomes in Patients Hospitalized With Infective Endocarditis.

Despite improvements in management, infective endocarditis remains associated with high mortality and morbidity. We describe temporal changes in the incidence, microbiology, and outcomes of infective endocarditis and the effect of changes in national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines on incident infective endocarditis. Using a Scotland-wide, individual-level linkage approach, all patients hospitalized with infective endocarditis from 1990 to 2014 were identified and linked to national microbiology, prescribing, and morbidity and mortality datasets. Linked data were used to evaluate trends in the crude and age- and sex-adjusted incidence and outcomes of infective endocarditis hospitalizations. From 2008, microbiology data and associated outcomes adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidity were also analyzed. An interrupted time series analysis was performed to evaluate incidence before and after changes to national antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines. There were 7638 hospitalizations (65±17 years, 51% females) with infective endocarditis. The estimated crude hospitalization rate increased from 5.3/100 000 (95% CI, 4.8-5.9) to 8.6/100 000 (95% CI, 8.1-9.1) between 1990 and 1995 but remained stable thereafter. There was no change in crude incidence following the 2008 change in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines (relative risk of change 1.06 [95% CI, 0.94-1.20]). The incidence rate in patients >80 years of age doubled from 1990 to 2014 (17.7/100 000 [95% CI, 13.4-23.3] to 37.9/100 000 [95% CI, 31.5-45.5]). The predicted 1-year age- and comorbidity-adjusted case fatality rate for a 65-year-old patient decreased in women (27.3% [95% CI, 24.6-30.2] to 23.7% [95% CI, 21.1-26.6]) and men (30.7% [95% CI, 27.7-33.8] to 26.8% [95% CI, 24.0-29.7]) from 1990 to 2014. Blood culture data were available from 2008 (n=2267/7638, 30%), with positive blood cultures recorded in 42% (950/2267). Staphylococcus (403/950, 42.4%) and streptococcus (337/950, 35.5%) species were most common. Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus had the highest 1-year mortality (adjusted odds ratio 4.34 [95% CI, 3.12-6.05] and 3.41 [95% CI, 2.04-5.70], respectively). Despite changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines, the crude incidence of infective endocarditis has remained stable. However, the incidence rate has doubled in the elderly. Positive blood cultures were observed in less than half of patients, with Staphylococcus aureus and enterococcus bacteremia associated with worse outcomes.

Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

BackgroundClimate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation.MethodsCases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997–2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020–2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s.ResultsPrecipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55–136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10–20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models.DiscussionIf new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010–2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

Impact of provision of cardiovascular disease risk estimates to healthcare professionals and patients: a systematic review

ObjectiveTo systematically review whether the provision of information on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to healthcare professionals and patients impacts their decision-making, behaviour and ultimately patient health.DesignA systematic review.Data sourcesAn electronic...

Efforts to counter climate change-related health risks need to be put centre stage, says WHO

Efforts to counter climate change-related health risks need to be put centre stage, says WHO

Home visits reduce the number of hazards for childhood home injuries in Karachi, Pakistan: a randomized controlled trial

BackgroundAlthough unintentional injuries are major causes of morbidity and mortality in less developed countries, they have received scant attention, and injury prevention policies and programs have just begun to be addressed systemically.AimsTo reduce hazards associated with home injuries due to falls and ingestions through an injury prevention program administered by home visitors.MethodsNon-blinded randomized controlled trial design of two interventions where one branch of the study group served as the control for the other in an urban neighborhood in Karachi, Pakistan. The study participants included 340 families with at least one child aged 3 years or less, discharged home from the Emergency Department following a visit for any reason other than an injury. The interventions included: (1) counseling to reduce falls; (2) counseling to reduce poisoning and choking. The primary outcome measure for each intervention was the relative risk of change in the home status from “unsafe” to “safe” after the intervention.ResultsThere were 170 families in the fall prevention and 170 families in the ingestion prevention branch of the study. The percentage of homes deemed “safe” in which the families had received fall intervention counseling was 13.5% compared to 3.5% in the control group (relative risk 3.8; 95% CI: 1.5 to 10.0; p = 0.002), whereas the percentage of homes deemed “safe” in which the families had received the ingestions intervention counseling was 18.8% compared to 2.4% in the control group (relative risk 7.8; 95% CI: 2.4 to 25.3; p < 0.001). Effectiveness did not depend on education or the socioeconomic status of the study participants. The mean number of fall hazards was reduced from 3.1 at baseline to 2.4 in the fall intervention counseling group, and the mean number of ingestion hazards decreased from 2.3 to 1.9. (p < 0.001).ConclusionsOur study demonstrates the effectiveness of an educational intervention aimed at improving the home safety practices of families with young children.

High stress responsivity predicts later blood pressure only in combination with positive family history and high life stress.

High cardiovascular responsivity to stressors has not consistently improved prediction of later blood pressure increases beyond the predictive effects of baseline pressure. Animal models suggest that genetic susceptibility to hypertension and frequent stress exposure are important modulating factors in stress-related hypertension. Thus in 103 men originally tested at age 18 to 22 years and reassessed 10 years later, interactive effects of genetic susceptibility (defined as 1 or more hypertensive parents) with high stress responsivity (defined as top 25% on the basis of blood pressure and cardiac responses during both reaction time and cold pressor tasks) were examined in relation to follow-up systolic and diastolic levels and to change in blood pressure status from normal (diastolic<80 mm Hg) to marginally elevated (diastolic 85 to 95 mm Hg). Men with the combination of high stress response and hypertensive parents demonstrated higher systolic (P<0.05) and diastolic levels (P<0.05) at follow-up, and they showed a 7-fold increase (7.5, 95% confidence intervals 2.3, 24.3; P<0.001) in relative risk of change in blood pressure status versus men with no family history and a 3-fold increase (3.8, confidence intervals 1.5, 9.6; P<0.004) versus less stress-responsive men who also had hypertensive parents. In 65 men who also provided ratings of daily stress, family historyxstress responsivityxdaily stress interactions were significant in predicting follow-up systolic and diastolic levels (P<0.006 and 0.03, respectively), with highest pressure levels seen when high life stress was reported by high stress responders and/or men with hypertensive parents. In conclusion, results suggest that stress responsivity as a long-term predictor is modulated by both genetic and environmental factors.