Tariff Changes Research Articles

The impact of changes in Russian log export tariffs on China's log imports

Russia is a major log supplier to China, and in order to control log exports, Russia has adjusted its log export tariffs. This paper analyzes the impact of changes in Russian log export tariffs on China's log imports using a gravity model based on China-Russia log trade data from 2003 to 2022. The conclusions show that the difference in forest resource endowment between the two countries promotes China's log imports, while the distance between China and Russia and Russia's log export tariffs harm China's log imports, and the effect of export tariffs is significant. The further research shows that the suppression effect of the changes in Russian log tariffs on China's log imports is very significant in the short term, but relatively weak in the long term. Based on the above conclusions, this paper recommends some policies from both short-term and long-term perspectives.

A Prospective Study on the Economic Effects of China-GCC FTA - Simulation and Analyses Based on GTAP Model

In the context of the "Belt and Road" initiative, this paper is based on the China-GCC FTA negotiations, and uses the Global Trade Analysis Model (GTAP) to construct six scenarios of tariff reduction in key sectors and reduction of technical barriers to trade (TBT) between China and the GCC countries, and to assess the impacts of the construction of the FTA on the economies of China and related countries. The paper shows that increased trade liberalization has a positive economic impact on the China-GCC FTA. At the same time, tariff changes in the manufacturing and oil and gas industries dominated the tariff reductions, but the reduction of technical barriers to trade (TBT) has a particularly significant impact compared to tariffs. Bilateral trade will contribute more remarkably to China's continued economic growth than in the GCC countries. Reductions in trade barriers will effectively boost production demand in Chinese and GCC countries, contributing imports, exports and output, which will benefit both economies, specially, China's trade surpluses increasing particularly in various sectors.

Enhancing Renewable Energy Integration in Developing Countries: A Policy-Oriented Analysis of Net Metering in Pakistan Amid Economic Challenges

Net metering (NM) is among the potent regulatory tools used globally for supporting distributed generation and renewable energy sources. This paper examines the trajectory of NM in a developing country such as Pakistan, analyzing the impact of regulatory changes, confidence-building strategies, hindering factors, and technical/financial issues. The three-stage methodology involves three components, namely techno-economic analysis, stakeholder engagement surveys, and impact analysis of financing mechanisms. This study emphasizes the importance of clear regulatory and financial frameworks, grid upgrades, and public–private partnerships for technology distribution in the context of a developing country with weak grid utilities and an import–export energy ratio. It also explores the role of financial incentives, such as tax breaks and subsidies, to encourage investment in NM systems from the perspective of lucrative rates, impact on paybacks, and return on investments, and proposes concrete solutions to enhance financial inclusion for ambitious renewable energy goals. Until April 2023, over 56,000 NM/distributed generation facilities were commissioned, with an installed capacity of 950 MW. By May 2024, the number of NM consumers reached ~100,000, with a 1950 MW capacity, nearly doubling. However, the import and export ratio of IESCO changed most, with 61% exports and 39% imports, directly impacting the revenue stream. A total of 60% of banks have adopted actions linked with green banking criteria, aiming to limit their environmental impact. The change in tariff will result in reduced ROI for NM consumers to 20%, and increase the payback period from less than 4 years to 13 years. Government subsidies, tax breaks, and green financing frameworks are proposed to encourage investment, but have been abruptly halted, and were previously at a 6% interest rate. This research aims to provide insights into effective market evaluation methodologies for NM programs and offer policy recommendations to strengthen legislative and institutional frameworks governing NM.

Climate change, production and trade in apples

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the impacts of climate extremes on the production and trade of apples. Apple production being notoriously sensitive to climate shocks, we show that March and April temperatures and precipitations beyond estimated thresholds cause large yield reductions in Quebec and Ontario. In years when climate shocks are large and highly correlated across space, large variations in national production cause major variations in trade flows. Hence, we exploit the theoretical foundations of a sectoral structural gravity model to implement counterfactual trade experiments about harvest shocks in Canada and the United States. We report changes in tariffs, imports, exports, farmgate prices, and in consumer welfare. The shocks greatly impact trade between North American countries but have little impact on other countries except for Chile and New Zealand which see their exports grow.

Welfare Effects of Food Tariff Changes on Urban and Rural Households

This study aims to analyze the effects of food tariff changes on the welfare of urban and rural households in Iran. The study considers the role of households as consumers, producers, and workers, as well as the market structure over the past fifteen years. Firstly, the study estimated the consumption behavior for the main food groups using the QUAIDS and pseudo-panel data. Then, the extent of tariff pass-through to domestic food prices was determined, and after that, price-wage elasticity and wage changes as a result of tariff changes were estimated. Finally, it calculated the effect of tariff changes on household purchasing power and income through an indirect utility function to get welfare effects. The results indicate that tariff pass-through to food prices is incomplete and varies between urban and rural areas. The study has found that skilled labor is more sensitive to food tariff reductions than unskilled labor, particularly in rural areas. The results reveal that tariff changes positively affect urban households' welfare, while rural households experience a loss due to these changes. Urban areas benefit from reduced household expenditure, while food prices are increasing in rural areas due to weak or absent tariff pass-through. Although these increases favor producers, they do not compensate for the loss suffered by consumers, resulting in reduced welfare in rural areas. The findings show that the effects of tariff changes vary across regions, not only between urban and rural areas but also among different provinces. Furthermore, the tariff reductions have been a boon for consumers, but a bane for producers, ultimately harming production in the long term. The findings suggest that regional markets may be either sufficient or insufficient to convert pass-through-the-border prices into domestic prices. Therefore, policymakers can use this study as a useful guide to reform the regional market structure to raise household welfare, food security, and income inequality.

Unit Cost Analysis of Haemodialysis Services By Activity Based Costing Approach as a Strategy For Increasing Hospital Profits

One of the catastrophic diseases that is the focus of health insurance financing is kidney failure. Haemodialysis is a type of kidney replacement therapy for chronic kidney disease using special equipment. One method of financing haemodialysis procedures is the National Health Insurance Program. Hospitals, as health service providers for JKN participants, have an interest in the INACBG rates. Based on the Regulation of the Minister of Health of the Republic of Indonesia Number 3 of 2023 concerning Health Service Tariff Standards in the Implementation of the Health Insurance Program, there are changes to tariffs for haemodialysis services. With the current tariff changes, single-use and re-use services are divided into two different tariffs. The research was conducted at Siloam Hospital Bali. The data taken is secondary data originating from the Financial Division of Siloam Hospital Bali, the Medical Records Department of Siloam Hospital Bali, and the Haemodialysis Department of Siloam Hospital Bali during the period January–April 2023. The data collected and the hypothesis formulated in this research will be tested using the MANOVA (Multivariate Analysis of Variance) test method, using SPSS software. The research results show that there is a significant difference in total costs for re-use and single-use haemodialysis services; there is a significant difference in the total INACBG rates per patient for re-use and single-use haemodialysis services and there is no significant difference in the difference between INACBG rates and total costs in re-use and single-use haemodialysis services.

Costs versus revenues of flexibility enhancement techniques for thermal power units in electricity-carbon joint markets

Thermal power units (TPUs) are required to enhance operational flexibility to ensure power grids accommodate the increasing penetration of intermittent renewables. The flexibility enhancement includes increasing peak shaving depth, increasing ramp rate, or both. In electricity-carbon joint markets, increasing peak shaving depth means TPUs can generate less electricity during low-tariff periods while increasing ramp rate means TPUs can respond faster to changes in electricity tariffs. Flexibility enhancement brings additional revenues, but also additional investments. The tradeoff between costs and revenues is important for the construction of sustainable power systems mainly based on renewables, but limited literature models them. To address this gap, variable costs, fixed costs, revenues, and an optimization model for maximum profits are proposed and modeled. Then the economic applicability of different flexibility enhancement aspects is evaluated by comparing the maximum profit increase for a day before and after the flexibility enhancement of TPUs. Furthermore, the profitability of applying different flexibility technologies under the same investments is analyzed, obtaining the optimal flexibility enhancement route. The proposed method is applied to TPUs with different live steam parameters, installed capacities, and reheat stages. Numerical simulations provide detailed economic analysis and optimal flexibility enhancement routes for TPUs in electricity-carbon joint markets.

Gravity-Based Tools to Assess the Impact of Tariff Changes: An Application to Armenia

This paper uses two empirical tools to quantify the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade and welfare. Both tools are rooted in structural gravity literature. The first tool estimates the impact of tariff changes on bilateral trade for 5,020 products in a partial equilibrium framework. The second tool quantifies the impact on bilateral aggregate trade in a general equilibrium setup, allowing estimates of trade diversion and welfare changes. These tools are used to estimate the impact of tariff changes on Armenia with regard to (i) its alignment with the external tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union; (ii) free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and other economies, including Iran and the People’s Republic of China; and (iii) Armenia’s loss of beneficiary status under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences of the European Union.

Taking stock of trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s pre-WTO accession

We study the effects on international trade from the annual tariff uncertainty about China’s MFN status renewal in the U.S. prior to joining the WTO. We have four main findings. First, in the monthly data, trade increases significantly in anticipation of uncertain future increases in tariffs and falls upon renewal. The peak-to-trough swings in trade are 62 percent of the possible tariff change. Second, the probability of a tariff increase was perceived to be relatively small, with an average annual probability of non-renewal of about 3.2 percent. Third, the anticipatory dynamics are entirely driven by the expected increase in tariffs, while uncertainty dampens them. We identify these effects using within-year variation in the risk of trade policy changes around the renewal vote and trade flows. We show that a (s̲,s¯) inventory model generates this behavior and that variation in the strength of the stockpiling in advance of the renewal decision is increasing in the storability of goods. Fourth, the costs associated with the trade policy induced stockpiling reduce entrants’ incentive to operate in a market with tariff uncertainty. Our results explain why trade may hold up in advance of a prospective policy change but may fall sharply even if expected tariff increases do not materialize.

Restrictions applied by WTO countries in international trade in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Objective The present article discusses changes in tariff and non-tariff restrictions applied in World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods The employed research tools were a review and analysis of literature along with source statistical data of WTO, UNCTAD, OECD, and ITC. Findings During the pandemic, the average level of tariffs in the WTO countries did not change significantly. From 2019 to 2021, the standard level of duties amounted to less than 15% in more than 90% of the member states. In contrast, 2020 saw an unprecedented increase since 1995 in the number of new non-tariff measures introduced without prior notification. As a result, the restrictions applied as a whole covered the most significant part of world trade since 2009 (13.6%). The newly introduced restrictive measures affected trade worth US$68.8 billion in 2020, i.e., over half as much as in 2019 (US$46.2 billion). Originality A noneconomic factor (pandemic) caused the WTO countries to introduce restrictions that were permitted but eluded normal procedures. This calls into question the effectiveness of liberalization measures within the WTO.

Prediction and Feed-In Tariffs of Municipal Solid Waste Generation in Beijing: Based on a GRA-BiLSTM Model

To cope with the increasing energy demand of people and solve the problem of a “Garbage Siege”, most cities have begun to adopt waste power generation (WTE). Compared to other WTE technologies, incineration has proven to be the most efficient technology for municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment. Therefore, to further explore the economic feasibility of MSW incineration plant construction, this study established a multi-factor prediction of MSW generation based on the GRA-BiLSTM model. By fully considering the relationship between the change in feed-in tariff (FIT) and the building of an incineration plant in Beijing, the economic feasibility of building an incineration plant is discussed based on the three scenarios set. The experimental results showed that (1) the combined model based on the GRA-BiLSTM showed good applicability for predicting MSW generation in Beijing, with MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and R2 values of 12.47, 5.97%, 18.5580, and 0.8950, respectively. (2) Based on the three scenarios set, the incineration power generation of Beijing MSW will show varying degrees of growth in 2022–2035. In order to meet future development, Beijing needs to build seven new incinerators, and the incineration rate should reach 100%. (3) According to setting different feed-in tariffs, based on the economic feasibility analysis, it is found that the feed-in tariff of MSW incineration for power generation in Beijing should be no less than $0.522/kWh. The government should encourage the construction of incineration plants and give policy support to enterprises that build incineration plants.

Industria láctea en Costa Rica: desafíos y oportunidades para su desarrollo sostenible

This article addresses the contemporary status of the dairy industry in Costa Rica, emphasizing the challenges and opportunities it presents for its evolution. A thorough analysis of the industrial structure, production, employment generation, and the dynamics of exports and imports in relation to preferential tariff fluctuations is conducted. During the study period, a significant increase in Costa Rican dairy production is highlighted, and notable challenges are pinpointed, including tariff changes under the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) and heightened competition with global dairy firms. Nevertheless, the vast potential for establishing market differentiators and capturing niche segments in this industry is underscored. The importance of institutional backing and the execution of strategies, designed in synergy between public and private sectors, is accentuated. The study’s outcomes suggest that the competitiveness of the dairy sector, both locally and internationally, is crafted through the amalgamation of efforts in pursuit of a favorable environment. The article concludes with recommendations aimed at amplifying industry competitiveness and advocating sustainable growth.

Nudges versus prices: Lessons and challenges from a water-savings program

This study evaluates the effects of two exogenous interventions targeting residential consumers using both pecuniary and nonpecuniary incentives, with the potential of increasing the moral and monetary costs of water use. The first intervention provided households with personalized reports including normative information regarding household water use compared with neighbors. The second intervention consisted of an exogenous change in water tariffs. The timing of the interventions provides a unique opportunity to separately assess both the individual and combined effects of each policy instrument. The empirical analysis was conducted on the same sample households assessed in the field experiment by Jaime and Carlsson (2018), whose behavior was followed one year after implementation. The results reveal that both nonpecuniary and pecuniary incentives significantly reduce water use when each instrument is applied separately, with the change in tariffs generating larger reductions in water use, compared with information provision, at 11% vs. 7%, respectively. However, the effectiveness of the combined policy depends on the setting of implementation. While the differentiated effects of the social information campaign associated with the change in tariffs suggest this policy remains effective, the evidence also suggests potential crowding-out effects arising upon the introduction of the new tariff regime. The largest reductions in water use are achieved when the instruments are jointly implemented. Findings shed light on the importance of accurately defining the timing and order of the interventions to maximize their impact on resource conservation.

Estimating Residential Water Demand Under Systematic Shifts Between Uniform Price (UP) and Increasing Block Tariffs (IBT)

AbstractWe evaluate whether changing from a uniform price (UP) to an increasing block tariff (IBT) changes people's behavior. We exploit a unique setting in which the price scheme moves back and forth yearly from UP to IBT. We discuss the effectiveness of IBT in reducing summer consumption. This issue is relevant to many countries and policymakers interested in designing tariff structures. There is no evidence of how the same consumer may react to systematically switching from one tariff structure to another yearly. We estimate the residential water demand and its price elasticity using a generalized least squared random effect model for the UP and the discrete/continuous choice model for the IBT. In addition, we split the sample between low and high‐consumption groups. For the low consumption group unaffected by the tariff change, the elasticity in the nonsummer months is higher (more elastic) than in the summer. Consumers in this group reduce their elasticity from nonsummer to summer months (−0.299 vs. −0.071, respectively) and increase their consumption by 13%. The high consumption group increased its summer consumption, but only by 8.7%, and contrary to the first group, its elasticity increased significantly (from −0.299 to −0.568). The high‐consumption group is indeed affected by the change in tariff. From a policy perspective, this implies that the IBT structure is relevant. However, if the policy seeks to promote conservation, it needs to be adjusted to a lower decile of the water consumption distribution to affect a more significant portion of the population.

Evolution of the revenue/ expenditure structure and passenger cost coverage ratio of regular passenger transport between 2007 and 2022

This article presents a general methodology for aggregating the actual costs and revenues of public transport in Hungary, which allows to calculate a realistic passenger (user) cost coverage ratio for the main players in the domestic market (MÁV-Volán Group, GYSEV, BKK). After an international perspective and a presentation of the specificities of the domestic market, it is concluded that the cost coverage ratio for fixed rail transport is significantly lower than for public transport services on road. The main reason for this is that fixed rail infrastructure is expensive to develop and operate and is mainly used by public passenger transport. The ridership ratio is significantly reduced by significant investments, and this has been analysed both on a time series and average basis. We present the timetable, tariff changes and major investments that have had an impact on ridership rates, typically only to a small extent. Our analysis is financially oriented and only touches on positive externalities, social benefits and the general government balance

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ СТРУКТУРЫ ТРАНСПОРТНОЙ ОТРАСЛИ И ЕЕ РОЛЬ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ СТРАНЫ В СОВРЕМЕННЫХ УСЛОВИЯХ

The purpose of the study is to establish the impact of the transport sector on the country’s economy. The paper considers the dynamics of changes in the share of the transport industry in the national economy. A comparative analysis of the structure and level of development of the transport industry of the Russian Federation and China is carried out. The volume of investments in the transport sector of the economy and changes in tariffs for transport services are compared. Based on the conducted research, conclusions are drawn about the existence of a direct relationship between the results of the functioning of the transport industry and the indicators of the development of the Russian economy, an assessment of the level of provision of infrastructure facilities for various types of transport is given, the influence of investments in the transport sector on the price level is revealed. The results obtained allow us to identify the main directions of development of the transport system of the Russian Federation that can stimulate the growth of the country’s economy in modern conditions in the presence of sanctions.

Estimating the Regional Welfare Impact of Tariff Changes: Application to the United States

Estimating the Regional Welfare Impact of Tariff Changes: Application to the United States

Regional Employment Implications of U.S. Pharmaceutical Exports

ABSTRACT We develop an industry-specific sub-national model of exports that takes into account international and domestic shipping costs. We generate econometric estimates of these shipping costs for the U.S. pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing industry by fitting the model to 2017 U.S. export data at the district level. Then, we use the econometric model to estimate the value of exports originating from production in each state. Our estimates of states’ export intensities provide indicators of the exposure of workers in individual states to pharmaceuticals-related changes in patent protection, tariffs, and macroeconomic conditions in export markets.

Introduction to the Special Issue on “Economic Impacts of Tariff Change in Asia”

Introduction to the Special Issue on “Economic Impacts of Tariff Change in Asia”

Rationalization of Electrical Energy Consumption in Households through the Use of Cheap IoT Module with Cloud Data Storage

This article explores mechanisms to enhance the efficient utilization of renewable energy sources (RES), with a particular emphasis on photovoltaic installations. One such strategy involves implementing a customized electricity rate system for individual consumers. This paper discusses the potential economic and environmental benefits of transitioning from a flat-rate tariff to a time-of-day tariff. This modification can lead to increased energy consumption during off-peak hours, aligning with occasional periods of photovoltaic installations’ overproduction, which might require their temporary shutdowns. The energy that could be produced by RES is supplied by conventional power plants (mostly coal-fueled). Not only does this have negative effects on the environment, but it also increases energy costs. In order to make an informed decision regarding the change of tariff, the consumer must be aware of its potential benefits and drawbacks. The article introduces an IoT-based, cost-effective system with cloud data storage for monitoring residential electricity consumption, offering various features, including an assessment of the financial viability of switching tariffs. This system has been operational for more than six months in real installation, encouraging homeowners to transition from a flat rate tariff to time-of-day tariff and optimize their use of electrical appliances. The article presents the potential benefits of this action, encompassing both financial aspects for users of the installation and environmental protection issues.