Seasonal Cycle Changes Research Articles

Urban Environmental Planning in Shimla Smart City: Review of Related Literature

Urban environmental concerns are on rise due to increasing population pressure on finite natural resources, deforestation, over grazing, unplanned construction, networking of roads and large-scale modification of natural landscape. It has caused irreversible damage to the ecology of this Himalayan state. Number of ultra modern projects, road networking, hydropower projects, and SEZ and real estate projects are costing Himalayan ecology. Unplanned developmental activities and urban processes in city have resulted in several ecological problems like environmental pollution, noise pollution extreme climatic conditions, shortage of drinking water, landslides, sinking land and change in seasonal cycle. Poor urban planning will cause social, economic and environmental implications in long term. Cities needs to be planned professionally keeping in mind future sustainability. Before planning a city in hilly areas, needs proper understanding of complex and dynamic phenomena involving interaction between environmental and socio- economic and political factors with multi disciplinary approach and vision. Urbanization and industrialization on one side is contributing its share in economic development of a region but on the other hand, it is degenerating water, air, soil and natural resources resulting in the degradation of environmental quality (Anjum, 1998). Urban environmental degradation leaves direct impact on the ecology and causes ecological imbalance (Singh, 1996). The most striking reason for the environmental degradation is the changing man and environment relationship. (Dasman, 1976), Shah (2001). Developmental activities in Himalayan region need different treatment and systematic planning.

Projected Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Madden‐Julian Oscillation Precipitation and Wind Amplitude

AbstractAlthough recent studies have examined the responses of annual‐ and seasonal‐mean Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) activity to global warming, little is known about the seasonal cycle changes that determine the timing of the peak MJO influence on local weather and climate. By analyzing the Community Earth System Model version 2 large ensemble at the end of the 21st century, we report changes in both the phase and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of MJO precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean and southwestern Pacific. While the seasonal delay in phase of the MJO is related to the seasonal delay of total precipitation, with contributions from surface latent heat flux and circulation changes, the amplification in seasonal amplitude is consistent with the increase in MJO amplitude due to mean temperature increases. The shifts in phase of the seasonal cycle of the MJO under global warming may influence the predictability of extreme events.

Robust Anthropogenic Signal Identified in the Seasonal Cycle of Tropospheric Temperature

Abstract Previous work identified an anthropogenic fingerprint pattern in TAC(x, t), the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT), but did not explicitly consider whether fingerprint identification in satellite TAC(x, t) data could have been influenced by real-world multidecadal internal variability (MIV). We address this question here using large ensembles (LEs) performed with five climate models. LEs provide many different sequences of internal variability noise superimposed on an underlying forced signal. Despite differences in historical external forcings, climate sensitivity, and MIV properties of the five models, their TAC(x, t) fingerprints are similar and statistically identifiable in 239 of the 240 LE realizations of historical climate change. Comparing simulated and observed variability spectra reveals that consistent fingerprint identification is unlikely to be biased by model underestimates of observed MIV. Even in the presence of large (factor of 3–4) intermodel and inter-realization differences in the amplitude of MIV, the anthropogenic fingerprints of seasonal cycle changes are robustly identifiable in models and satellite data. This is primarily due to the fact that the distinctive, global-scale fingerprint patterns are spatially dissimilar to the smaller-scale patterns of internal TAC(x, t) variability associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The robustness of the seasonal cycle detection and attribution results shown here, taken together with the evidence from idealized aquaplanet simulations, suggest that basic physical processes are dictating a common pattern of forced TAC(x, t) changes in observations and in the five LEs. The key processes involved include GHG-induced expansion of the tropics, lapse-rate changes, land surface drying, and sea ice decrease.

Changes in anthropogenic precursor emissions drive shifts in the ozone seasonal cycle throughout the northern midlatitude troposphere

Abstract. Simulations by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models indicate that the seasonal cycle of baseline tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes has been shifting since the mid-20th century. Beginning in ∼ 1940, the magnitude of the seasonal cycle increased by ∼10 ppb (measured from seasonal minimum to maximum), and the seasonal maximum shifted to later in the year by about 3 weeks. This shift maximized in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal – the seasonal cycle decreased in amplitude and the maximum shifted back to earlier in the year. Similar changes are seen in measurements collected from the 1970s to the present. The timing of the seasonal cycle changes is generally concurrent with the rise and fall of anthropogenic emissions that followed industrialization and the subsequent implementation of air quality emission controls. A quantitative comparison of the temporal changes in the ozone seasonal cycle at sites in both Europe and North America with the temporal changes in ozone precursor emissions across the northern midlatitudes found a high degree of similarity between these two temporal patterns. We hypothesize that changing precursor emissions are responsible for the shift in the ozone seasonal cycle; this is supported by the absence of such seasonal shifts in southern midlatitudes where anthropogenic emissions are much smaller. We also suggest a mechanism by which changing emissions drive the changing seasonal cycle: increasing emissions of NOx allow summertime photochemical production of ozone to become more important than ozone transported from the stratosphere, and increasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) lead to progressively greater photochemical ozone production in the summer months, thereby increasing the amplitude of the seasonal ozone cycle. Decreasing emissions of both precursor classes then reverse these changes. The quantitative parameter values that characterize the seasonal shifts provide useful benchmarks for evaluating model simulations, both against observations and between models.

Melatonin Regulates the Periodic Growth of Cashmere by Upregulating the Expression of Wnt10b and β-catenin in Inner Mongolia Cashmere Goats.

Secondary hair follicle growth in cashmere goats has seasonal cycle changes, and melatonin (MT) has a regulatory effect on the cashmere growth cycle. In this study, the growth length of cashmere was measured by implanting MT in live cashmere goats. The results indicated that the continuous implantation of MT promoted cashmere to enter the anagen 2 months earlier and induce secondary hair follicle development. HE staining of skin tissues showed that the number of secondary hair follicles in the MT-implanted goats was significantly higher than that in the control goats (P < 0.05). Transcriptome sequencing of the skin tissue of cashmere goats was used to identify differentially expressed genes: 532 in February, 641 in October, and 305 in December. Fluorescence quantitative PCR and Western blotting results showed that MT had a significant effect on the expression of Wnt10b, β-catenin, and proteins in the skin tissue of Inner Mongolia cashmere goats. This finding suggested that MT alters the cycle of secondary hair follicle development by changing the expression of related genes. This research lays the foundation for further study on the mechanism by which MT regulates cashmere growth.

A Later Onset of the Rainy Season in California

AbstractCalifornian hydroclimate is strongly seasonal and prone to severe water shortages. Recent changes in climate trends have induced shifts in seasonality, thus exacerbating droughts, wildfires, and adverse water shortage effects on the environment and economy. Previous studies have examined the timing of the seasonal cycle shifts mainly as temperature driven earlier onset of the spring season. In this paper, we address quantitative changes in the onset, amounts, and termination of the precipitation season over the past 6 decades, as well as the large‐scale atmospheric circulation underpinning the seasonal cycle changes. We discover that the onset of the rainy season has been progressively delayed since the 1960s, and as a result the precipitation season has become shorter and sharper in California. The progressively later onset of the rainy season is shown to be related to the summer circulation pattern extending into autumn across the North Pacific, in particular, a delay in the strengthening of the Aleutian Low and later southward displacement of the North Pacific westerlies.

On the Oceanic Origin for the Enhanced Seasonal Cycle of SST in the Midlatitudes under Global Warming

AbstractClimate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. The underlying mechanisms are investigated using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 effects (i.e., the response in the absence of wind change) and wind feedbacks can be isolated from each other. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind speed feedback reveals the importance of the wind stress–driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic wind speed feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates the SST seasonal cycle through the warming-induced shoaling in the annual mean mixed layer depth (MLD) as well as the MLD difference between winter and summer. Moreover, the surface wind seasonal cycle changes due solely to the direct CO2 effect are found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, suggesting that the root cause for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle resides in the direct CO2 effect. This notion is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that reproduces the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing.

Change Detection and Trend Analysis of Future Temperature and Rainfall over West Africa

This paper examined future trends with change detection in temperature and rainfall over three agro-climatic zones of West Africa. Historical (1961–2000) and projection (2020–2099) data of ensemble-mean of six RCMs that dynamically downscaled five GCMs that participated in CMIP5 obtained from Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used. Standard normal homogeneity, Buishand’s, Pettitt’s, and Mann–Kendall test were used for change point detection and trend analysis at 5% significant level. Inter-annual anomaly and projected change in the seasonal cycle relative to historical mean were investigated. The ensemble-mean evaluation performed for the historical period (1961–2000) using CRU dataset revealed that the change point occurred in rainfall and temperature series in the 1970s and 1980s, while a significant increasing trend is observed in temperature in all climatic zones. Change-point detection test projects rainfall series to be homogeneous as significant change point is expected to occur in temperature for all zones under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for near (2020–2059) and far-future (2060–2099). For the near-future, an increase in the mean temperature between 0.5–1.30 ℃ and 0.19–1.67 ℃ is projected to occur under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Projected relative change in seasonal cycle shows that winter months may witness increase in rainfall amounts under RCP4.5 but significantly dry under RCP8.5 in near and far-future as temperature is expected to become warmer in all months. Rainfall anomaly projects the Sahel to have a reduced amount of rainfall compared to other zones as temperature anomaly reveals a continuous increase in all the zones under the two RCPs. The results of this study show that climate change will intensify in West Africa in the future.

Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920–2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010–2049) and mid-term (2030–2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060–2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

Study of long-term variations in the Black Sea fields using an interdisciplinary physical and biogeochemical model

Using an interdisciplinary three-dimensional physical and biogeochemical model developed for the Black Sea, the long-term evolution of marine dynamics and ecosystem is investigated. The hydrophysical fields were calculated from a model of Black Sea circulation with assimilation of hydrographic survey and satellite measurement data from 1971 to 2001. The circulation model reproduces well processes of various scales in both space and time (particularly the seasonal course and interannual variability of main hydrophysical fields). The resulting flow fields are then used to calculate the long-term evolution of the components of the lower level of the food chain in the Black Sea ecosystem. The biogeochemical model used in the calculations is based on the nitrogen cycle and includes a parameterization of the main biological and chemical interactions and processes in the upper layer of the Black Sea. The numerical experiments indicated that the biogeochemical component of the model rather successfully reproduces the main features and evolution trends in the Black Sea ecosystem for the period under consideration: the growth in the phytoplankton biomass during eutrophication and changes in seasonal cycles of the main ecosystem components. Also, the hydrophysical processes were shown to be important for a reliable reproduction of long-term changes in the ecosystem.

Behind uncertainties in projections of Australian tropical climate: Analysis of 19 CMIP3 models

A systematic study is undertaken for projected changes in tropical Australian climate in 19 CMIP3 Coupled Models for the A2 scenario over the 21st century. While equatorial regions to the north of Australia are projected to have increased precipitation during austral summer (December to February) by the end of the 21st century, there is no significant change over northern Australia based on the model ensemble mean. There is a large spread in model simulations of precipitation change, with both large positive and negative anomalies. The ensemble mean change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation over tropical Australia is small, with precipitation increase during March and April, suggesting a prolonged Australian wet season. There is no model consensus on how interannual variability of tropical Australian precipitation will change in future climate, although more models simulate increased variability than decreased. Correlations between full wet season (October to April) precipitation and austral spring (September to November) NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a slight weakening. The spread in projected precipitation seasonal cycle changes between simulations from the same model is larger than the inter‐model range, indicating that there is large internal or natural variability in tropical Australian precipitation relative to the climate change signal. Zonal wind changes indicate an intensification of austral summer low level westerlies although combined with a weakening of upper easterlies. Low level westerlies also persist for longer, consistent with a delay in the monsoon retreat. All models simulate an increase in the land‐ocean temperature contrast in austral summer, with a significant correlation between changes in land‐ocean temperature contrast in the pre‐monsoon (austral spring) and summer precipitation changes. Analysis of precipitation changes using regime‐sorting techniques shows offsetting tendencies from thermodynamic changes associated with enhanced atmospheric moisture and dynamic changes associated with a weakened atmospheric circulation.

Interannual variations of the diurnal tide in the mesosphere generated by the quasi‐biennial oscillation

We report results from a study with the numerical spectral model (NSM), which produces significant interannual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines's Doppler spread parameterization, small‐scale gravity waves (GWs) drive the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and semiannual oscillation. With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 25 m s−1 at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO also modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms is discussed, which involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide. These interactions generate pronounced QBO modulations of the tide at altitudes below 50 km. In the mesosphere between 50 and 80 km the signature is not well defined because of interference from the seasonal variations. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO‐related interannual variations of the tide are again relatively large, but they are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. Since the period of the QBO is variable and its phase is relative to the seasonal cycle changes, the magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide in the upper mesosphere varies considerably as our long‐term model simulation shows. This intermittency must be attributed to nonlinear interactions, and GW drag (momentum deposition) is discussed as a potential candidate.

Variations in the abundance of Centropages typicus and Calanus helgolandicus in the North Sea: deviations from close relationships with temperature

The interannual variations in abundance of the calanoid copepod Centropages typicus (Kroyer) in the North Sea are significantly positively correlated with sea-surface temperature. The same is true of Calanus helgolandicus Claus. In both cases there was a deviation from the close relationship with temperature for several years in the early to mid-1980s. Centropages typicus was less abundant than expected from 1981 to 1984, but Calanus helgolandicus recovered from a period of lower than expected abundance from 1980 to 1982, to become more abundant than expected from 1983 to 1987. The difference between the responses of the two species to climate-driven changes in seasonal cycles of phytoplankton is interpreted in relation to their biology. Geographical variations of the interannual variability and seasonal cycles of Centropages typicus in the North Sea are analysed. The centre of the population of this species in the North Sea is in the German and Southern Bights, but the variations in abundance may be partly influenced by advection from areas to the west of Britain.

Secular Changes in Great Lakes Water Level Seasonal Cycles

The three primary scales of Great Lakes water level fluctuations are interannual, seasonal, and episodic. Of these three, the seasonal water level fluctuations have received relatively little attention. The Great Lakes water levels have a well defined seasonal cycle driven primarily by snowmelt in the spring and summer and lake evaporation in the fall and winter. The present average seasonal cycle ranges from 26 cm on Lake Superior to 38 cm on Lake Ontario. Great Lakes monthly water levels from 1860 to 2000 were used to assess changes in the seasonal cycle of each of the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair over the past 140 years. Changes are found on all of the lakes during the period of record. They usually resulted in a decrease in seasonal range and a time shift in the months of seasonal maximum and minimum. The effects of lake regulation were found to be negligible in the case of Lake Superior and significant for Lake Ontario. The major changes on Lakes St. Clair and Erie are likely a result of changes in the connecting channels ice retardation rather than changes in seasonal hydrometeorology. Seasonal cycle regimes are delineated for each of the lakes and possible rationale for the changes discussed.