A pivotal limitation in the widespread adoption of geopolymer stems from their notable and substantial drying shrinkage properties, which significantly constrain their potential applications. The complex reaction processes and amorphous gel structures make it difficult to quantitatively calculate the drying shrinkage rate. In this study, alkali-activated slag-metakaolin-based geopolymer was used to develop a method for predicting drying shrinkage. By analyzing the internal relative humidity changes, contact angles on the structure surface at different ratios, and the surface tension of pore solutions, the capillary tensile stress within the structure was calculated. This analysis was combined with measurements of drying shrinkage, elastic modulus, and porosity to establish a predictive method for the drying shrinkage of alkali-activated slag-metakaolin-based geopolymer. The results indicated that as the system's relative humidity decreased, the surface tension of the pore solution increased, the interface contact angle reduced, and the capillary tensile stress, as calculated using the Young-Laplace equation, increased. These changes intensified the microstructural shrinkage and, consequently, increased the geopolymer's overall shrinkage rate. At the same time, the larger the porosity of the geopolymer system, the smaller the elastic modulus, the larger the dry shrinkage rate of the geopolymer. At a porosity of 29.0 %, an elastic modulus of 1.83 GPa, and a capillary tensile stress of 3.6 MPa, the dry shrinkage of the geopolymer is only 0.899 %. By adjusting the porosity and elastic modulus to 38.3 % and 1.60 GPa, respectively, and increasing the capillary tensile stress to 10.84 MPa, the dry shrinkage of the geopolymer reaches a maximum of 1.942 %. The prediction method for geopolymer drying shrinkage, established based on these factors, has a correlation coefficient of 0.97, effectively predicting the trend of geopolymer drying shrinkage rate characteristics. The current study provides a theoretical basis for methods to reduce shrinkage in geopolymers and their application in engineering.
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