Abstract Background and Aims Hypo- and hypernatremia are frequently encountered electrolyte disturbances in clinical practice. Rapid correction of these dysnatremias can result in severe neurological complications. Therefore, various formulas have been developed to predict changes in plasma sodium concentration ([Na+]) after treatment. However, these kidney-centered formulas have been shown to be inaccurate. A potential explanation for the discrepancy between predicted and measured plasma [Na+] is the accumulation of sodium in the skin, which is not explicitly taken into account in these formulas. The purpose of this post-hoc analysis is to evaluate the association between factors related to tissue sodium accumulation and the discrepancy between measured and predicted plasma [Na+]. Method We used data from a hypernatremic intensive care unit (ICU) cohort with 66 patients and 1,034 ICU days with complete data on sodium, potassium and water balance. We excluded ICU days with incomplete balances, dialysis and severe diarrhea. The predicted plasma [Na+] was calculated using the Barsoum-Levine (BL) and the Nguyen-Kurtz (NK) formula. Then, we calculated the discrepancy between predicted and measured plasma [Na+] (∆[Na+]). We fitted a linear mixed-effect model to investigate the association between factors related to tissue sodium content and ∆[Na+]. Age, sex, blood pressure, eGFR, CRP, plasma albumin, total body water (TBW), baseline plasma [Na+] and changes in plasma [Na+] were incorporated as fixed effects in the model, while the subjects were introduced as a random effect. TBW was estimated as 60% of body weight for males and 50% of body weight for females, corrected for fluid balances on subsequent ICU days. Results A total of 613 ICU days of 66 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 58 ± 15 years and 38% was female. The mean plasma [Na+] at inclusion day was 145 ± 9 mmol/L and mean eGFR CKD-EPI was 52 ± 28 ml/min/1.73 m2. On average, the deviation between predicted and measured plasma [Na+] was 3.8 ± 3.3 mmol/L for the BL formula and 3.9 ± 3.4 mmol/L for the NK formula. For both formulas, TBW (p = 0.01), baseline plasma [Na+] (p < 0.001) and plasma [Na+] change (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the discrepancy between predicted and measured plasma [Na+] (Table 1). Plasma albumin (p = 0.02) was also significantly associated with this discrepancy when the NK formula was used. Conclusion In a hypernatremic ICU cohort, baseline plasma [Na+], estimated TBW and plasma [Na+] changes are associated with the inaccurateness of plasma [Na+] prediction. As baseline plasma [Na+] and estimated TBW are available when initiating treatment, incorporation of these variables in the currently available formulas may improve the prediction of plasma [Na+].
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