Party Change Research Articles

Electoral Defeat As ‘Mother of Party Change’: Towards Objective-Subjective Approach

The purpose of the paper is to provide a theoretical framework for the study of electoral defeat and its influence on party transformation. The opening paragraphs present the state of the art on the topic, which leads to conclusions about significant shortcomings in the existing studies. In order to address them, in the following sections of the article, the authors propose an approach to the issue that is based on a two-dimensional perspective. The first one – the objective dimension – takes into account the environmental aspect and institutional nature of political parties. The second – the subjective – emphasizes the human factor and considers the role of the personal experience of collective failure, and its perception and impact on collective actions as a response to it. On this basis several lines of study are suggested together with appropriate methodological approaches.

Crónica general de la Legislatura Post-Bipartidista

La X legislatura ha certificado el fin de un sistema político en Andalucía que, como en la gran mayoría de los subsistemas autonómicos, estaba caracterizado por la propia lógica bipartidista, y en buena medida también, semi-presidencialista, que hasta hace muy poco regía en el parlamentarismo español a nivel nacional. Sin duda alguna, pese a que esa ruptura con el paradigma bipartidista no significó un cambio en el partido de gobierno andaluz, sí que ha tenido una incidencia relevante en las instituciones parlamentarias de la comunidad autónoma, habiéndose dado, en este sentido, circunstancias hasta ahora inéditas desde el origen de la autonomía andaluza.

Principle of Loyal Opposition: The Case of Political Parties in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic

Modern understandings of democracy not only suggest a regime in which those who govern are selected through contested elections, but more fundamentally, a system of government in which parties lose elections. Yet, the mechanism of vertical accountability whereby the people can hold the ruling government responsible depends on parties in opposition providing choices for voters while remaining loyal to the idea of governmental power. Adopting the principle of loyal opposition as the basis of this study in the Nigerian context, we try to interrogate whether the duty to serve as “government in-waiting’’ equally affects how the duty to critique the actions of the government is performed. The study further probed; can a ruling party cope with the criticism of the opposition party? To answer these questions, the study argued that it is tempting not to assume that, the institution of political party is still at its lowest ebb despite the successful democratic transition in Nigeria since 1999, and the alternation of political power resulting in the change of party in government from the People’s Democratic Party to the All Progressives Congress in 2015. These issues have consequences for the principle of loyal opposition and democratic stability in Nigeria.

Left parties, voter preferences, and economic policy-making in Europe

ABSTRACTClassic partisan theory posits that political parties translate their electorates’ preferences into policies. Accordingly, the recent changes in left parties’ voter base, from predominantly working-class to middle-class voters, should have resulted in changing policy positions and policy effects of left parties. We test this expectation for economic policies (i.e., subsidies, product market regulation, and privatization) in 16 European countries between 1980 and 2012. We find the expected relationships for subsidies but not for regulation and privatization. This can be explained by the fact that only with regard to subsidies, preferences substantially differ between the working- and the middle-class. Thus, economic policy preferences of voters of left parties diverge less than could be expected. Methodologically, the study suggests that empirically testing the complete causal mechanism of classic partisan theory, assessing voters’ preferences and investigating more than one issue area, are promising ways to study partisan effects on public policies.

Migration as an opportunity to register changing partisan loyalty in the United States

AbstractWe explore the connection between residential migration choices and political party identification by movers who change their political party registration. We find that an impressive number of migrants choose neighbourhoods that favor their new party of registration. The association between the party change of the migrant and the balance of local partisanship in their new neighborhood cannot be accounted for by a process of neighbourhood socialisation because the move is too recent for socialisation pressures to have operated. It is more likely that the migrant's political transition occurred well before the relocation and shaped the destination search. Relocation offered an opportunity to mark a previously transformed partisan preference on the voter rolls. In this sense, partisan identification is stable, but observing any large subset of migrants may make it appear unhinged, as this group collectively takes its opportunity to officially disclose their change in political party loyalty when they have a chance to relocate and must reregister.

Foreign threat and political party change: Russia and changes in party manifestos

How do political parties react to foreign security threats? There has been very little attention paid in the literature generally to how parties react to international events, particularly how parties react to foreign policy threats. Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project, we examine how political parties in countries in Europe have reacted to Russian actions in terms of their emphasis on security issues. Based upon our analysis of the manifestoes from 331 parties in 36 countries we find that, generally, interstate threats have no significant effect on the military position adopted by political parties, although these effects vary by party type and by the type of threat. Russian based threats appear to be associated with the Far Left becoming more dovish (which is consistent with what would be expected by the literature) and the Far Right becoming significantly less hawkish.

スウェーデン環境党の議会政治戦略と「ブロック政治」の新展開

スウェーデン環境党の議会政治戦略と「ブロック政治」の新展開

Is There a War Party? Party Change, the Left–Right Divide, and International Conflict

Are leaders from certain parties particularly likely to engage in military conflict? This question is difficult to answer because of selection bias. For example, countries may be more likely to elect right-wing leaders if their publics are more hawkish or if the international system is particularly dangerous. Put simply, who comes to power is not random, which makes causal inference difficult. We overcome this problem by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we look at close presidential elections that were essentially “tossups” between two candidates. We find that electing right-wing candidates increases state aggression. We also find that electing candidates from challenger parties makes countries much more likely to initiate military disputes, particularly in the first year of the new leader’s term. This result is consistent with other studies that find that the likelihood of state aggression increases following major leadership transitions.

From secessionism to regionalism: Intra-organizational change and ideological moderation within armed secessionist movements

Secessionist movements rarely succeed in their quests for separate statehood. Hence, conflict resolution efforts in secessionist wars tend to focus on making autonomy frameworks acceptable to both sides. This article posits that de-radicalization on the issue of secession and specifically the endorsement of regionalism over secessionism is an important prerequisite for such autonomy arrangements to succeed. A programmatic shift toward regionalism represents a determinant shift in the ideology and raison d’être of secessionist movements. Drawing on insights from the literature on party change and rebel group transformation, a twofold contribution is made. First, moderation can occur in the absence of electoral participation as a result of internal shifts in the dominant faction of a rebel group. Second, identifying two mechanisms as drivers for group identity change, organizational diversification and internal debate, it shows how under certain condition fragmentation may induce moderation on core ideological issues of the armed movement. These arguments are developed through an inductive analysis of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). In this case, moderation on the issue of secession was the outcome of the formation and strengthening of a moderate domestic wing, increased internal debate and the subsequent weakening of the symbolic powers of a long-standing insurgent leadership.

Political uncertainty and the cost of equity capital

We study the impact of political uncertainty on the cost of equity. The change of communist party secretaries every several years in Chinese cities provides a good setting for our analysis. Our results suggest that a firm's cost of equity is higher when facing political uncertainty. In addition, we find that when a firm receives a large amount of government subsidies, the CEO/chairman is politically connected, or when the stock market is a bear market, the adverse effect is stronger. In contrast, after the anti-corruption campaign in 2012 or the city is financially advanced, the adverse impact is less pronounced.

Party novelty and congruence: A new approach to measuring party change and volatility

We propose a new three-dimensional approach to party newness and an interval index of party congruence/novelty. Building on this, we also propose a split-vote-by-congruence (SBC) approach to electoral volatility that employs the index. Four elections from different countries that exhibited different forms of party change are used to illustrate the approach. The congruence/novelty index corresponds to our qualitative case knowledge, and the SBC approach leads to meaningful volatility scores. Ad hoc coding of parties as new/old or singular successors/predecessors can seriously over- or underestimate volatility that explains divergence among volatility scores in literature. By eliminating the need for dichotomous and often controversial coding decisions, the SBC approach allows for a substantially more reliable calculation of volatility.

Groups Agendas as the Root of Party Position Change

Abstract One dimension of party realignment – party position change – has been debated extensively in recent political science literature. This article reviews recent evidence presented to explain position change: candidates, politically active groups, and ideology. Based on historical case studies, I make the case for treating politically active groups as the most important factor in party change. A clear understanding of these factors can help us understand whether recent changes in both parties are harbingers of long term trends.

The 48th Japanese General Election and the Changes of Political Parties in Japan

The 48th Japanese General Election and the Changes of Political Parties in Japan

All Brexiteers now? Brexit, the Conservatives and party change

The 2016 referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU) brought about significant change in the policy and strategy of the Conservative Party. Despite David Cameron’s resignation, these dramatic shifts have not been matched by changes in personnel or dominant faction as MPs who voted Remain continue to outnumber those who voted Leave at the top echelons of the party. 140 Conservative MPs, many with a record of rebellion on EU issues, voted Leave, but among Remain-voting MPs were many ‘reluctant Remainers’. All except Ken Clarke subsequently voted for the Bill triggering Article 50 but, in a party long divided over the EU issue, the institutional support mechanisms underpinning policy change are fragile. Conservative divisions have also changed as soft and hard Brexiteers disagree over the withdrawal process and the UK’s future relationship with the EU. With the Conservatives now a minority government, parliament offers various ways in which MPs can register dissent and influence policy, from amending core Brexit legislation to supporting critical Select Committee reports.

Whose Embryo Is It Anyway?: The Need for a Federal Statute Enforcing Frozen Embryo Disposition Contracts

Affording a couple the right to decide what should become of their frozen embryos in the event they divorce is of the utmost importance. The right to procreate, as well as not to procreate, has been observed as a constitutionally protected right under the Fourteenth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The interference by the judiciary in overriding, superseding, or simply ignoring disposition contracts is severely problematic. The parties have theoretically decided the best course of action by addressing potential future complications in disposition contracts. Not enforcing disposition contracts creates a lack of trust between the in vitro fertilization (IVF) facility and the parties and between the parties themselves. Knowing the contract they are signing may be thrown out if one party changes their mind, severely undermines contractual authority in assisted reproductive technology. This Note proposes multiple psychological, legal, and medical safeguards to be implemented by IVF facilities in order to ensure the parties enter into a valid and enforceable contract.

Conflict or consensus? Synchronous change in mother–young vocal communication across weaning in the cat

Since parent–offspring conflict theory was first proposed, a number of studies in a range of mammalian species have questioned its importance, suggesting that coordination, rather than conflict, occurs during weaning. In this study we propose a set of behaviours for studying the development of the mother–offspring relationship: offspring separation calls and the corresponding maternal response, which can be used to describe the continually developing motivational changes in both parties accompanying weaning. We recorded and analysed separation calls of kittens of the domestic cat, Felis silvestris catus, during the first two postnatal months, and performed playback experiments to observe their mothers' behavioural response. Three different stimuli were played back: calls of the mothers' kittens at their correct age, calls of their kittens from an earlier age (1 week old) and a control sound. We found that kittens' separation calls changed in several respects across the 8 weeks of the study. After the first postnatal month, the number, intensity and fundamental frequency of calls declined markedly, while kittens' latency to call increased. In parallel, we found that during playback tests, mothers' willingness to return to the nest or reunite with their kittens decreased notably as the kittens approached weaning age. Since this decline was present even when mothers were played back the calls of their own kittens previously recorded at an earlier age, we conclude that the decline in responsiveness was not due to a change in the kittens' vocalizations, but rather to a change in the mothers' motivational state. Our findings support the view that weaning in the domestic cat is a well-synchronized process between mothers and offspring, at least under the favourable nutritional conditions of the present study.

Genuine effects of vote advice applications on party choice: Filtering out factors that affect both the advice obtained and the vote

Previous research shows effects of the advice from voting advice applications (VAAs) on party choice. These effects could be spurious because common antecedent factors like prior voting, a voter's prior issue positions and election campaign news may explain both party choice and the opinions someone reports to the VAA, and hence the voting advice obtained from the VAA. Often VAAs will advise users to opt for parties that they were already likely to vote for, based on antecedent factors. Here, three-wave panel surveys and media content data for the Dutch national election campaigns of 2010 and 2012 are employed. In spite of spurious correlations resulting from common antecedent factors, genuine VAA effects show up, especially for doubting voters. Party change based on positive VAA-advice for a party is least likely (a) for voters who already have an abundance of antecedent factors in favour of that party anyway, and (b) for those without a single antecedent factor in favour of that party. Genuine VAA effects imply that VAAs make it less easy for political parties to neglect each other's owned issues, because VAAs weigh issues equally for each party.

Attitudes and opinions of Italian middle-level elites in the new millennium. Adaptation, innovation, or persistence?

The literature on party politics has generally conceived of party change as party adaptation. Building on the theories of institutional change based on critical juncture analysis, our work contributes to the literature in two ways. Theoretically, by unpacking the concept of party change in three dimensions: adaptation, innovation, and persistence. This multidimensionality has been unduly neglected in the literature, too exclusively focussed on party adaptation. Empirically, the article analyses whether the attitudes and opinions of middle-level elites reveal adaptation, innovation, or persistence in their belief system at the beginning of the third millennium. Drawing upon a unique data set of national party delegates of 15 Italian political parties, regression results suggest that high entry barriers in party organizations may hinder Schumpeterian innovation.

Elite Change of the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 2001–2015

In 2001 the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania and the Democratic Labor Party of Lithuania (the ex-Communist Party) completed their formal merger under the name Lithuanian Social Democratic Party and became one of the largest and the most influential political organization in Lithuania. This article aims to examine rate of replacement and social-demographic characteristics of the members of the LSDP National Executive Committee (Presidium) after party completed merger in 2001. The analysis exposed that pace and scope of the LSDP elite replacement was quite intensive between 2001 and 2015. However the rate of survival is greater in the case of founding members, who entered party elite in 2001 than in that of newcomers i.e., who were elected to the Presidium for the first time after 2001. With regard to age of the LSDP elite, dominant member age grouping is 50 years and older. The data indicates that there is a low percentage of female and especially youth in the National Executive Committee.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ppaa.16.1.18013

Party Patronage in Lithuanian Public Sector

The main issue of this paper is party patronage in Lithuania. Firstly, the phenomenon of party patronage is shortly described focusing on main research questions. Afterwards methodology of semi-structured expert interviews is presented. Lastly this article shows the main findings of party patronage study in Lithuania: party patronage index is constructed, data regarding motivation or party patronage, candidates’ selection criteria, impact of ruling party change on practices of party patronage, party patronage as a part of political culture is presented and analysis of Lithuanian political parties most prone to usage of party patronage is given.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ppaa.16.1.18012