Changes In Prevalence Of Obesity Research Articles

Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach.

Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens. Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years. Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years. Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study

England implemented a menu calorie labelling policy in large, out-of-home food businesses in 2022. We aimed to model the likely policy impact on population-level obesity and cardiovascular disease mortality, as well as the socioeconomic equity of estimated effects, in the adult population in England. For this modelling analysis, we built a comparative assessment model using two scenarios: the current implementation scenario refers to actual deployment only in large (≥250 employees), out-of-home food businesses, whereas the full implementation scenario refers to deployment in every out-of-home food business. We compared each scenario with a counterfactual: the scenario in which no intervention is implemented (ie, baseline). For both scenarios, we modelled the impact of the policy through assumed changes in energy intake due to either consumer response or product reformulation by retailers. We used data from the Office for National Statistics and the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2009-19, and modelled the effect over 20 years (ie, 2022-41) to capture the long-term impact of the policy and provided mid-period results after 10 years. We used the Monte Carlo approach (2500 iterations) to estimate the uncertainty of model parameters. For each scenario, the model generated the change in obesity prevalence and the total number of deaths prevented or postponed. The current implementation scenario was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 0·31 percentage points (absolute; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·10-0·35), which would prevent or postpone 730 cardiovascular disease deaths (UI 430-1300) of the 830 000 deaths (UI 600 000-1 200 000) expected over 20 years. However, the health benefits would be increased if calorie labelling was implemented in all out-of-home food businesses (2·65 percentage points reduction in obesity prevalence [UI 1·97-3·24] and 9200 cardiovascular disease deaths prevented or postponed [UI 5500-16 000]). Results were similar in the most and the least deprived socioeconomic groups. This study offers the first modelled estimation of the impact of the menu calorie labelling regulation on the adult population in England, although we did not include a cost-effectiveness analysis. Calorie labelling might result in a reduction in obesity prevalence and cardiovascular disease mortality without widening health inequalities. However, our results emphasise the need for the government to be more ambitious by applying this policy to all out-of-home food businesses to maximise impact. European Research Council.

Changes in Obesity Prevalence Among U.S. Adults After the COVID-19 Pandemic by State and Territorial Stay-at-Home Order Level and Sociodemographic Characteristics.

To examine changes in obesity prevalence among US adults after the COVID-19 pandemic by level of stay-at-home order and sociodemographic characteristics. Quasi-experimental study using repeated cross-sectional data. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Pooled data for US adults ages ≥26years (n = 1,107,673) from BRFSS (2018-2021). States/territories were classified into three levels of stay-at-home order: none, advisory/only for persons at risk, or mandatory for all. Individual-level sociodemographic characteristics were self-reported. The difference-in-differences method was conducted with weighted multiple logistic regression analysis to examine obesity (body mass index ≥30kg/m2) prevalence by stay-at-home order level and sociodemographic characteristics before/after the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2018-February 2020 vs March 2020-February 2022). After adjusting for a secular trend and multiple covariates, adults in states/territories with mandatory stay-at-home orders experienced a larger increase in obesity prevalence (adjusted odds ratio: 1.05; 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.11) than adults in states/territories with no stay-at-home order. Younger adults (vs ≥65years) and individuals with <high school education (vs ≥4-year college) experienced larger increases in obesity prevalence. Increases in obesity prevalence were perpetuated 2years after implementation of stay-at-home orders, indicating that longer-term health implications are co-occurring during the pandemic recovery period. Future research should focus on successful methods for staying active and healthy during social distancing and beyond.

Projected impact of anti-obesity pharmacotherapy use on racial and ethnic disparities in adolescent obesity.

Paediatric obesity disproportionately impacts individuals from minoritized racial and ethnic backgrounds. Recent guidelines support use of anti-obesity pharmacotherapy for adolescents with obesity, but the potential impact on disparities in obesity prevalence has not been evaluated. To model changes in obesity prevalence with increasing utilization of anti-obesity pharmacotherapy among adolescents. Data representative of American adolescents ages 12-17 years were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, cycles 2011 through pre-pandemic 2020. A body mass index (BMI) reduction of 16.7% was applied to each participant based on clinical trial results of weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg among adolescents. Utilization disparities were based on utilization of the same medication class among adults. Obesity prevalence was calculated assuming utilization of 10%-100%, stratified by race and ethnicity. Among 4442 adolescents representing 26 247 384 American adolescents, projected overall obesity prevalence decreased from 22.2% to 8.4% with 100% utilization. However, disparities increased relative to Non-Hispanic White youth, with prevalence among Non-Hispanic Black and Mexican American youth ranging from 40%-60% higher to 90%-120% higher, respectively. Increasing utilization of anti-obesity pharmacotherapy may widen relative disparities in obesity, particularly if utilization is unequal. Advocacy for equitable access is needed to minimize worsening of obesity-related disparities.

Changes in Obesity Prevalence Following Spinal Cord Injury: A Retrospective Review of Body Mass Index

Background: The prevalence of obesity is high in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) due to the alterations in body composition that occur as a direct result of injury. Body mass index (BMI) is used to classify body habitus. In 2009, an adjusted BMI classification, with lower thresholds for obesity, was recommended for individuals with SCI. Objective: Determine obesity prevalence before and after SCI to examine the trajectory of obesity development. Furthermore, we discuss the challenges of applying a modified BMI classification system in this population. Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical record review. Adults with traumatic SCI were selected. Height and body weight measurements were used to calculate BMI two years before injury through two years after injury. Results: Obesity prevalence is high in SCI participants. However, we report no significant difference in BMI between motor complete and incomplete injuries, or between tetraplegic or paraplegic injuries. We report a decrease in BMI from one year before injury to one- and two-years after injury for all groups. With moderate obesity before injury, the transition to a new BMI classification system creates a challenge in reducing obesity prevalence. Conclusion: Obesity prevalence encompassed nearly all participants by the second year following SCI. The adjusted BMI classification system dictates the high obesity prevalence in this population and is best used as a screening tool to track the risk of developing obesity. Exceptions should be considered when using the SCI-adjusted BMI classification system, and tissue composition analysis is preferred.

10 Year Changes In Prevalence Of Obesity In Rural School Children

10 Year Changes In Prevalence Of Obesity In Rural School Children

An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Testing Novel Obesity Interventions in School Environment Design

Studying the impact of built-environment changes on human behavior and health is empirically challenging. To overcome this challenge, there has been increasing recognition of the usefulness of systems’ approaches for scenario testing to understand and prioritize such public health interventions. Limited research has shown a potential effect on the positive energy expenditure as a result of the use of dynamic furniture that promotes micromovement among school children. In this article, we aim to determine, via experiments in simulated populations of elementary school students, whether the use of dynamic furniture in the school environment has an impact on the childhood obesity over time. An agent-based model is developed to simulate three physical activity (PA) profiles over a period of six years with and without the dynamic furniture. Based on the prevalence trends from the experiments, there is no apparent impact of dynamic furniture use among boys, regardless of activity profile category. However, there are some pieces of evidence of differing trends among girls with a low PA profile. Although the intervention produces a marginal change in obesity prevalence in one population, the dynamic furniture is not a sole solution to the obesity epidemic. However, the use of dynamic furniture in schools may be a worthwhile component of prevention interventions.

Associations between trajectories of obesity prevalence in English primary school children and the UK soft drinks industry levy: An interrupted time series analysis of surveillance data.

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are the primary source of dietary added sugars in children, with high consumption commonly observed in more deprived areas where obesity prevalence is also highest. Associations between SSB consumption and obesity in children have been widely reported. In March 2016, a two-tier soft drinks industry levy (SDIL) on drinks manufacturers to encourage reformulation of SSBs in the United Kingdom was announced and then implemented in April 2018. We examined trajectories in the prevalence of obesity at ages 4 to 5 years and 10 to 11 years, 19 months after the implementation of SDIL, overall and by sex and deprivation. Data were from the National Child Measurement Programme and included annual repeat cross-sectional measurement of over 1 million children in reception (4 to 5 years old) and year 6 (10 to 11 years old) in state-maintained English primary schools. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly obesity prevalence data from September 2013 to November 2019 was used to estimate absolute and relative changes in obesity prevalence compared to a counterfactual (adjusted for temporal variations in obesity prevalence) estimated from the trend prior to SDIL announcement. Differences between observed and counterfactual estimates were examined in November 2019 by age (reception or year 6) and additionally by sex and deprivation quintile. In year 6 girls, there was an overall absolute reduction in obesity prevalence (defined as >95th centile on the UK90 growth charts) of 1.6 percentage points (PPs) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 2.1), with greatest reductions in the two most deprived quintiles (e.g., there was an absolute reduction of 2.4 PP (95% CI: 1.6, 3.2) in prevalence of obesity in the most deprived quintile). In year 6 boys, there was no change in obesity prevalence, except in the least deprived quintile where there was a 1.6-PP (95% CI: 0.7, 2.5) absolute increase. In reception children, relative to the counterfactual, there were no overall changes in obesity prevalence in boys (0.5 PP (95% CI: 1.0, -0.1)) or girls (0.2 PP (95% CI: 0.8, -0.3)). This study is limited by use of index of multiple deprivation of the school attended to assess individual socioeconomic disadvantage. ITS analyses are vulnerable to unidentified cointerventions and time-varying confounding, neither of which we can rule out. Our results suggest that the SDIL was associated with decreased prevalence of obesity in year 6 girls, with the greatest differences in those living in the most deprived areas. Additional strategies beyond SSB taxation will be needed to reduce obesity prevalence overall, and particularly in older boys and younger children. ISRCTN18042742.

Application of the Community Readiness Model for childhood obesity prevention: a scoping review.

The Community Readiness Model (CRM) provides an approach to determine community readiness (CR), which is the degree of a community's preparedness to address a health issue. This scoping review aims to characterize internationally existing applications of the CRM for childhood obesity prevention. Therefore, a systematic literature research was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Library, LIVIVO and Google Scholar. Of 285 identified records, 17 studies met the eligibility criteria and were included in the scoping review. The CRM has already been applied to childhood obesity prevention in the USA (n = 10), Australia (n = 4), UK (n = 1), Iran (n = 1) and South Africa (n = 1). Mainly geographically defined communities (n = 12) like counties and cities were analysed but also schools (n = 4) and churches (n = 1). The scoping review revealed various methodological changes to the standard protocol of which some are particularly relevant for the application to childhood obesity prevention. The identified studies reported readiness scores in the low to mid-range of the nine-point readiness scale. To increase CR, strategies were proposed that addressed raising awareness and knowledge of childhood obesity, but also supporting connectivity in and between settings. This scoping review provides researchers and health promoters with an overview of international CR measurements and setting-specific strategies to increase CR. It highlights the potential of targeted interventions to increase readiness and shows tentative support for the assumption of a possible link between CR level and changes in obesity prevalence.

Association of Changes in Obesity Prevalence With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Youth in Massachusetts

Association of Changes in Obesity Prevalence With the COVID-19 Pandemic in Youth in Massachusetts

Trends in Obesity Prevalence Among Adults Aged 18 Through 25 Years, 1976-2018

This study uses nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to examine changes in obesity prevalence in the US over the last 4 decades among adults aged 18 through 25 years.

Trends and epidemiology of radial head subluxation in the United States from 2004 to 2018.

Increased body mass may predispose children to a greater risk for radial head subluxation (RHS). Recent studies in the literature have reported a plateau in obesity prevalence among infants and toddlers. This study sought to examine recent epidemiological trends in RHS incidence from 2004 to 2018 using the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System database to determine how obesity patterns may affect RHS incidence. The National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) database was queried for patients 6years of age or younger presenting with radial head subluxation between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2018. Patient demographics, mechanisms of injury, and location of injury were recorded. An estimated total 253,578 children 6years or younger were treated for RHS with 14,204 (95% CI = 8124-20,284) in 2004 to 21,408 (95% CI = 12,882-29,934) in 2018. The overall annual rate of RHS per 10,000 children ≤ 6years was 6.03 (95% CI = 4.85-7.58). The annual rate of RHS per 10,000 children ≤ 6years increased (m = 0.200, ß = 0.802, p < 0.001) from 5.18 (95% CI 2.96-7.39) in 2004 to 7.69 (95% CI = 4.63-10.75) in 2018. The most common mechanism associated with RHS was falls (39.4%) with 103,466 (95% CI 74,806-132,125) cases. Pulls accounted for the second most common mechanism of injury, accounting for 90,146 (95% CI 68,274-112,018) cases or 36.2%. Yearly RHS incidence was compared to obesity prevalence for ages 2-5 children provided by the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES) surveys. Changes in obesity prevalence may visually reflect RHS incidence trends, but no causality between obesity prevalence and RHS incidence could be confirmed. This study corroborated previous findings that falls and arm pulling contribute to the vast majority of RHS cases. The nonsignificant rise in RHS cases may reflect a possible plateau in obesity prevalence of children aged 2-5years in recent years. III.

Childhood Obesity in Serbia on the Rise.

The aim of the study was to examine changes in obesity prevalence among primary school children in Serbia between 2015 and 2019 rounds of the national WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative (COSI-Serbia). Cross-sectional studies were conducted in 2015 and 2019. The nationally representative samples of primary school children were measured for body height and weight, following the COSI protocol. Body Mass Index was calculated, and the IOTF and WHO definitions were used to classify children as overweight or obese. Participants were children of both sexes aged 7.00–8.99 years (n = 6105). Significant differences in overweight (obesity included) prevalence between two COSI rounds were identified regardless of definitions applied. According to the WHO definitions, prevalence of overweight and obesity combined increased in 7–9-year-old children in Serbia from 30.7% in 2015 to 34.8% in 2019 (z = −3.309, p < 0.05), and according to the IOTF standards, the increase from 22.8% to 30% was registered (z = −6.08, p = 0.00). The childhood overweight/obesity rate is increasing in Serbia, which places monitoring and surveillance of children’s nutritional status high on the public health agenda.

The Changes in Obesity Prevalence and Dietary Habits in Korean Adults by Residential Area during the Last 10 Years — Based on the 4th (2007–2009) and the 7th (2016–2018) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data

The Changes in Obesity Prevalence and Dietary Habits in Korean Adults by Residential Area during the Last 10 Years — Based on the 4^th (2007–2009) and the 7^th (2016–2018) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Prevalence of Obesity Among Chinese Children and Adolescents, 1985-2005.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Prevalence of Obesity Among Chinese Children and Adolescents, 1985-2005.

Obesity Prevalence in Alabama: Trends from 2011 to 2017 and Evaluation of a State Obesity Program

Abstract Background Alabama, one of the southeastern states in the US, suffers from a heavy burden of obesity. In 2014, Alabama launched a state program named ’ALProHealth’, aiming to prevent and reduce obesity prevalence. The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impact of the ALProHealth Program on the prevalence of obesity in Alabama from 2014 to 2017. Methods Data for this study come from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). An interrupted time series design was employed. The state obesity prevalence trend for the pre-program period (2011-2014) was estimated and compared with the post-program period (2015-2017). Statistical analyses were conducted using segmented linear regression. Indiana was chosen as the control group in this study. Results The obesity prevalence in Alabama significantly increased from 31.8% in 2011 to 36.2% in 2017, increasing by 0.81% on average each year (95% CI: 0.47 to 1.15, p = 0.002). Before the ALProHealth Program, the obesity prevalence increased by 0.59% (p = 0.11) and 0.32% (p = 0.34) in both Alabama and Indiana respectively, though it is not statistically significant. After the program implementation, the slope of obesity prevalence increased by 0.43 (p = 0.45) and 0.03 (p = 0.96) in Alabama and Indiana respectively, though change is not significant. When comparing Alabama and Indiana, the rate of slope change is higher in Alabama (0.73) compared with Indiana (0.093), indicating the rate of slope change in obesity prevalence increased faster in Alabama than Indiana. Conclusions To sum up, the study found no evidence that the ALProHealth Program contributed to the decrease of obesity prevalence in Alabama. One possible reason is that there was low program coverage. Future studies should examine the potential effectiveness of other programs using a similar conceptual model as ALProHealth Program. Key messages In 2014, Alabama launched a state program named ‘ALProHealth’, aiming to prevent and reduce obesity prevalence. The study found no evidence that the ALProHealth Program contributed to the statewide decrease of obesity prevalence in Alabama, which may attribute to low program coverage.

Rapidly increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity in older Ghanaian adults from 2007-2015: Evidence from WHO-SAGE Waves 1 & 2.

BackgroundStudies on changes in the prevalence and determinants of obesity in older adults living in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. We examined recent changes in obesity prevalence and associated factors for older adults in Ghana between 2007/08 and 2014/15.MethodsData on adults aged 50 years and older in Ghana were drawn from the WHO SAGE 2007/08 (Wave 1; n = 4158) and 2014/15 (Wave 2; n = 1663). The weighted prevalence of obesity, overweight, normal weight and underweight, and of high central adiposity were compared in 2007/08 and 2014/15. Multinomial and binomial logistic regressions were used to examine whether the determinants of weight status based on objectively measured body mass index and waist circumference changed between the two time periods.ResultsThe prevalence of overweight (2007/08 = 19.6%, 95% CI: 18.0–21.4%; 2014/15 = 24.5%, 95% CI: 21.7–27.5%) and obesity (2007/08 = 10.2%, 95% CI: 8.9–11.7%; 2014/15 = 15.0%, 95% CI: 12.6–17.7%) was higher in 2014/15 than 2007/08 and more than half of the population had high central adiposity (2007/08 = 57.7%, 95% CI: 55.4–60.1%; 2014/15 = 66.9%, 95% CI: 63.7–70.0%) in both study periods. While the prevalence of overweight increased in both sexes, obesity prevalence was 16% lower in males and 55% higher in females comparing 2007/08 to 2014/15. Female sex, urban residence, and high household wealth were associated with higher odds of overweight/obesity and high central adiposity. Those aged 70+ years had lower odds of obesity in both study waves. In 2014/15, females who did not meet the recommended physical activity were more likely to be obese.ConclusionOver the 7-year period between the surveys, the prevalence of underweight decreased and overweight increased in both sexes, while obesity decreased in males but increased in females. The difference in obesity prevalence may point to differential impacts of past initiatives to reduce overweight and obesity, potential high-risk groups in Ghana, and the need to increase surveillance.

Trends in obesity and impact on obstetric outcomes in a regional hospital in Victoria, Australia.

Obesity-related complications have been identified across the entire childbearing journey. This study investigated changes in obesity prevalence and their impact on obstetric outcomes in a regional hospital in Victoria, Australia. All women delivering during 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016 were eligible to participate. Trends over time and outcomes were assessed on body mass indices (BMI). Incidences of complications were compared by BMI categories. The effect of obesity on hospital length of stay (LoS) was further assessed using the Generalised Estimating Equations approach. During the study period a total of 6661 women of whom 27.5% were overweight, and 16.1, 7.7, and 5.5% were respectively obese class I, class II, and class III, contributed to 8838 births. An increased trend over time in the prevalence of obesity (BMI>35.0) (P=0.041) and a decreased trend for vaginal deliveries for the whole sample (P=0.003) were found. Multiple adverse outcomes were associated with increasing maternal BMI including increased risk of gestational diabetes, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, emergency caesarean section, shoulder dystocia, macrosomia, and admission to special care. The multivariable analysis showed no associations between LoS and BMI. Over a short period of seven years, this study provides evidence of a significant trend toward more obesity and fewer vaginal births in a non-urban childbearing population, with increasing trends of poorer health outcomes. Assessing needs and risk factors tailored to this population is crucial to ensuring a model of care that safeguards a sustainable and effective regional maternity health service.

Trajectories of change in childhood obesity prevalence across local authorities 2007/08-2015/16: a latent trajectory analysis.

We investigated differing trajectories of childhood obesity prevalence amongst English local authorities (LAs). Data on prevalence of childhood obesity (BMI ≥ 95th centile) for Reception year and Year 6 for 150 LAs in England from 2006/07 to 2015/16 were obtained from the National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP). Latent class mixture modelling (LCCM) was used to identify classes of change in obesity prevalence. In Reception, most LAs showed little change across the period (Class 1; stable, moderate obesity prevalence;84%), with a smaller group with a high prevalence that fell thereafter (Class 2; high but falling obesity prevalence; 16%). In Year 6 we identified three classes: moderate obesity prevalence (Class 3; 43%); high and rising obesity prevalence (Class 2; 36%); and stable low obesity prevalence (Class 1; 21%). Greater LA deprivation and higher LA proportion of non-white ethnicity increased risk of being in Class 2 (Reception) or Class 2 or 3 (Year 6) compared with Class 1. The prevalence of childhood obesity in LAs in England follow a small number of differing trajectories that are influenced by LA deprivation and ethnic composition. LAs following a stable low obesity trajectory for Year 6 are targets for further investigation.

Correction to: Change in Obesity Prevalence among New York City Adults: the NYC Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2004 and 2013–2014

Readers should note the following two typographical errors in this article.