Changes In Labor Supply Research Articles

The Effect of Inheritance Receipt on Labor Supply: A Longitudinal Study of Japanese Women

Abstract This study examines the effect of inheritance receipt on labor supply, exploring the empirical issues associated with inheritance expectations, informal caregiving, and liquidity constraints. The literature has not examined the possibility that ignoring the labor supply increase associated with the termination of caregiving can lead to an underestimation of the decrease in labor supply after inheritance. Based on a dataset of Japanese women, we found that inheritance decreased labor supply, primarily through changes in the extensive margin, particularly for recipients in their 50s and under 40 years of age with children. Unlike labor supply, household expenditures hardly change after an inheritance. Furthermore, unanticipated inheritances reduce labor supply compared to anticipated inheritances. Additionally, controlling for the termination of caregiving responsibilities resulted in a 25 % larger estimate of the wealth effect of inheritance receipt on labor supply. Finally, pre-inheritance liquidity constraints have no effect on changes in labor supply.

Robots and immigration

Changes in local labor supply may affect robot adoption by firms. We test this hypothesis by exploiting an increase in the number of workers and a change in the local workforce composition induced by exogenous immigration into Danish municipalities. Using the Danish employer-employee matched dataset over the period 1995-2019, we show in a shift-share regression that a larger share of non-Western immigrants in a municipality leads to fewer robot adoptions at the firm-level. Several demographic characteristics, including prime age and low skill level, make immigrant workers particularly substitutable for robots. As many advanced economies are facing labor shortages, this paper sheds light on the future of robotization.

Labour supply and the cost of house price booms and busts

Fluctuations in house prices generate substantial heterogeneity in the price of purchase of similar dwellings depending on the time of purchase. These differences in the price of purchase have large effects on income-net-of-housing-costs. We document these effects using the large house price fluctuations during the recent housing boom-bust in Spain. Households can mitigate these impacts through changing labour supply. Men work more subsequent to paying higher house prices at purchase , whereas the correlation of house prices and labour supply for women is driven by selection: households where women work more, buy more expensive houses.

Labour supply responses to a negative income tax in Spain

One of the major drawbacks of a Basic Income proposal is that it could induce people to reduce their labour supply. The main aim of this paper is to put forward a financially viable alternative to the current Spanish system of social protection, based on a Negative Income Tax proposal and introducing several changes in the social protection system. Using EUROMOD, the labour behavioural responses to these new conditions are studied in detail, using a structural model of labour supply.The main result is that a reform as the one described in this work will not make people to abandon the labour market, as usually argued for Basic Income proposals. Under this scheme, on the contrary, we can observe a slightly increase in labour supply. This finding has strong implications for policy. Modifying the tax-benefit system, bringing it closer to a Basic Income scheme, will produce significant improvements in inequality and poverty without a significant change in labour supply.

Higher Education and Africa's Economic Development: Challenges for the Nigerian Economy

The paper tried to determine the impact of higher education and Africa's economic development: challenges for the Nigerian economy. It was observed from the study that high quality and of course market relevant education is capable of providing a genuine cure to economic problems. The paper employed the Solow growth model where on the process to promote economic growth and development, factors of production like capital and labour are employed. However the efficient use of these factors (capital and labour) demands that the workers are well trained and skillful through education. This study assumes a straight forward production function in which changes in output are due to changes in the quantity and quality of inputs, economies of scale and advances in knowledge. The findings of the study suggest that some of the chosen variables conform to theoretical predictions and as such affect economic development. The researcher recommends governments can induce changes in labour demand and supply through specific labour market policies and social protection programmes and offering opportunities for workers to upgrade their skills, and offering education and training at an affordable cost, help raise a corporation's and an economy's productivity and also Educational budget allocation stakeholders should focus more on increasing capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, and human capital development to foster economic growth in the country.

Estimating labor supply responses to Danish tax reforms

This paper estimates the elasticity of labor supply at the intensive margin by applying the latest estimation strategies from the elasticity of taxable income literature to administrative register data on performed hours of work. Performed hours of work are contract hours plus paid overtime, minus paid absence, vacation, and holiday leave. I estimate elasticities of labor supply at the intensive margin (ELS), labor income (ELI), and taxable income (ETI) of 0.08, 0.06, and 0.1. The results show that the high ratio of ELI to ETI can be attributed to changes in labor supply for wage earners, capturing inherent labor responses. As a result, I explicitly connect the labor supply and ETI literatures. The labor supply response is driven by changes in contract hours, paid absence, and individuals switching between main and secondary employment. These results suggest that contextual factors such as labor market fluidity and flexibility are important to facilitate real responses to taxation and that labor supply responses are core underlying drivers of total responses to taxation.

Short-Term Labor Supply Response to the Expanded Child Tax Credit

We estimate the extensive and intensive margin labor supply response to the monthly Child Tax Credit disbursed in 2021 as a part of the American Rescue Plan Act. Using Current Population Survey microdata, we compare labor supply outcomes among households who qualify for varying relative increases in household income as a result of their income level and household size. We do not find strong evidence of a change in labor supply for families receiving the credit. The results are robust to alternative labor supply models, where households respond mainly to cash on hand or changes in the annual budget set.

Minimum Wages and Labour Supply in an Emerging Market: The Case of Mauritius

Abstract This paper investigates the effect of multiple minimum wages, known as remuneration orders, on employment and working hours in Mauritius. Using data between 2005 and 2014, the analysis finds no effect on overall employment and different effects in sign for men and women. The minimum wage has a positive long-term effect on women's employment (0.141) and a negative effect on male employment (−0.097). The estimated employment elasticity magnitudes for men and women are within the range of elasticities found in previous studies of employment effects of minimum wages in low- and middle-income countries. The aggregate employment effect of the minimum wage in Mauritius is not significant, due to the larger share of men who are employed. The extensive margin effect of minimum wages is also associated with a 2.2% increase in average working hours for men but a 1.3% decline in average working hours for women in the covered sector. In the uncovered sector, the significant positive effect along the intensive margin, estimated at 4.6%, is driven by changes in labour supply among men.

Where Are the Missing Workers? Anticipated and Unanticipated Labor Supply Changes in the Pandemic's Aftermath

ABSTRACT: Labor force participation and average hours of work both fell sharply at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Neither had fully recovered by the end of 2022. The drop in participation between December 2019 and December 2022 implies a loss of 3 million people from the labor force; the decline in average hours over the same period translates to the equivalent of 2.6 million fewer workers. Demographic and other trend factors that predated the pandemic explain most of the participation shortfall. Taken together, COVID-19-related health effects and the persistent (though shrinking) effects of the fear of contracting COVID-19 more than explain the rest. In contrast, pre-pandemic factors account for little of the shortfall in hours. COVID-19-related health effects account for perhaps 40 percent of that decline, but we are unable to explain the majority of the hours shortfall. We speculate that the lower level of hours in the post-pandemic period may reflect a shift in the desired balance between work and other aspects of workers' lives.

Local attributes and migration balance – evidence for different age and skill groups from a machine learning approach

AbstractMany European regions are currently experiencing a significant population decline and, related to this, are increasingly confronted with labour shortage. Migration is a main driver of changes in regional labour supply and the local level of human capital. A region's ability to attract residents thus becomes more and more important for its growth prospects. We use a large panel dataset for the period 2003 to 2017 to investigate the relationship between local attributes and the migration balance of regions in Germany. In particular, we examine whether the factors that determine the migration balance of regions significantly differ across age and skill groups because their contribution to regional human capital likely varies. Our econometric specification can be understood as an aggregate formulation of a two‐region random utility model. The dataset includes 30 factors that might potentially influence a region's migration balance. Given this large number of explanatory variables and significant multicollinearity issues, we apply machine learning techniques [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), complete subset regression] to identify important local characteristics. Our results point to a robust negative relationship between the net migration rate and population density, yet locations in close proximity to large urban centres seem to be rather attractive destination regions, and the size of the effects differs significantly across age and skill groups. Moreover, labour market conditions and some amenities are significantly correlated with the region's migration balance. However, the former and, in particular, facilities for vocational training matter primarily for young workers.

The impact of digital economy development on the demand and supply of labor market

With the continuous development of the digital economy, the labor market has been affected to some extent. Therefore, in order to prevent employment problems caused by the changes, this paper will study the impact of the development of the digital economy on the supply and demand of the labor market. This paper will find out whether the market matches the supply and demand of labor by combining the analysis of how the digital economy affects the demand and supply of the labor market. Through the research, this paper finds that in the long term, the changes in labor supply roughly match the changes in demand affected by the digital economy; in the short term, the labor supply cannot match the demand for jobs in some fields in terms of quantity. This study helps to provide entry points and methods to solve employment problems in the context of digital economy development.

Statistical evaluation of the impact of education on changes in labor supply in the labor market

Introduction. The particular role of statistical evaluation of the impact of education on changes in the supply of labor resources in the labor market is corroborated in the presented paper. A comparative analysis is conducted related to the evaluation of the impact of the structure of competencies and education of accountants and auditors on meeting the demands of the labor market. The presented study employed the quantitative research design. It allows to provide replies to questions concerning the relationships existing between variables in order to elucidate, predict and control the respective phenomena. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the sustainability of qualifications among accounting graduates in accordance with the demands of the labor market. Results. The authors deem it necessary to conduct further research for the purpose of searching for modern tools, particularly in terms of quantitative and qualitative evaluation of human resources at every life cycle of an individual. A survey was carried out among 250 auditors - graduates of Oles Honchar Dnipro National University. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was utilized for data analysis. The following statistical tools were employed: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality; Pearson correlation coefficient for validity; Cronbach's Alpha for reliability statistics; frequency and descriptive analysis; T-test. Conclusion. The analysis of the data showed that the university’s contribution to improving the skills of accounting graduates is high, with the mean value (skills of accounting graduates) amounting to 3.86, the test value = 16.5 and P-value = 0. Furthermore, the results of the data analysis also identified positive feedback with regard to the university's contribution to the professional development of accounting graduates, with results showing that the university plays a prominent role therein, the mean value (suitability of accounting curricula) equals 3.67, test value=-12.5 and P-value=0. Recommendations were provided for the improvement of the educational process related to professional training of future accountants and auditors. Prospects for further research lie in the analysis of the compliance of accounting curricula employed in universities with the demands of the labor market.

The Gendered Impacts of Income Fluctuations on Household Departure, Labor Supply, and Human Capital Decisions: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

How do fluctuations in income affect labor supply decisions, and how do their effects differ by gender? This study analyzes data from a thirteen-year rolling panel in Kyrgyzstan spanning 2004–16. It addresses the endogeneity of fluctuations in income to labor supply decisions by employing shift share instruments that exploit region-level changes over time in growth rates of different sources of revenue and production costs. Estimating a household fixed effects model, the study finds that reductions in income relative to the median spur departure from the household (for example, due to migration), with smaller impacts on women than men. However, women’s labor supply at the origin is affected significantly more, with short-term increases in hours of employment and declines in home production and other activities. Reductions in income also fuel temporary migration for both genders, with larger effects for men, and widen the gender gap in pursuit of non-compulsory education. HIGHLIGHTS Declines in income spur household departure, with larger impacts on men than women. Women are not always “left behind” following shocks; like men, they respond through changes in labor supply and livelihood decisions. At the origin, women face significantly greater increases in workloads than do men. Declines in income widen the gender gap in pursuit of non-compulsory education, favoring men. Policies that support women’s ability to control income can promote domestic work sharing and ensure income generation empowers women.

Hours Constraints, Occupational Choice, and Gender: Evidence from Medical Residents

Abstract Do the long work hours required by many high-paying professions inhibit the entry of women? I investigate this question by studying a 2003 policy that capped the average workweek for medical residents at 80 hours. Using data on the universe of US medical school graduates, I find that when a specialty reduces its weekly hours, more women enter the specialty, whereas there is little change in men’s entry. I provide evidence that the increase in women is due to changes in labour supply, rather than labour demand. At the residency program level, I document that baseline female representation predicts female entry after the reform. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the reallocation of women among medical specialties due to the hours reduction can close the physician gender wage gap by 11$\%$.

Structural change in labor supply and cross-country differences in hours worked

This paper studies how structural change in labor supply along the development spectrum shapes cross-country differences in hours worked. We emphasize two main forces: sectoral reallocation from self-employment to wage work, and declining fixed costs of wage work. We show that these forces are crucial for understanding how the extensive margin (the employment rate) and intensive margin (hours per worker) of aggregate hours worked vary with income per capita. To do so we build and estimate a quantitative model of labor supply featuring a traditional self-employment sector and a modern wage-employment sector. When estimated to match cross-country data, the model predicts that sectoral reallocation explains more than half of the total hours decrease at lower levels of development. Declining fixed costs drive the rise in employment rates at higher levels of income per capita, and imply higher hours in the future, in contrast to the lower hours resulting from income effects and expansions in tax-and-transfer systems.

Order assignment and scheduling under processing and distribution time uncertainty

In response to increasingly fierce competition and highly customized demands, many companies adopt a distributed production model but manage their orders in a centralized manner. Coordination between multiple factories requires unified information and resources to provide a close match between supply and demand. One of the crucial tasks is to solve the order assignment and scheduling problem with uncertainties introduced by unexpected changes in upstream supply, labor supply, and transportation capacity. Managing uncertainties in production and distribution is important, as they can significantly interrupt and delay the timely and constant supply of orders if not appropriately managed. We address an order assignment and scheduling problem with direct distribution under uncertainties in processing and distribution time. The aim is to achieve a minimum of weighted sum cost and timeliness, which involves the optimization of the order assignments to multi-factory and production scheduling for orders at each site. We first formulate the problem as a two-stage stochastic programming model. To manage a large scale of possible scenarios, we apply a sample average approximation (SAA) method to approximate the model. We propose a novel model with fewer binary variables and big-M constraints. An exact logic-based Benders decomposition (LBBD) method is developed to deal with practical-sized instances. Numerical results indicate the superiority of our new model and the LBBD method. Managerial implications are discussed to demonstrate its advantages and potential applicability in practice.

Schooling and Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from COVID-19 School Closures in the United States.

This article examines changes in parental labor supply in response to the unanticipated closure of schools following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The authors collect detailed daily information on school closures at the school-district level, which they merge to individual-level data on labor supply and sociodemographic characteristics from the monthly Current Population Survey spanning from January 2019 through May 2020. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach, the authors find evidence of non-negligible labor supply reductions. Having a partner at home helped offset the negative effect of school closures, particularly for maternal employment, although respondents' job traits played a more significant role in shaping labor supply responses to school closures. Overall, the labor supply impacts of school closures prove robust to identification checks and to controlling for other coexistent social distancing measures. In addition, these early school closures seem to have had a long-lasting negative impact on parental labor supply.

Does the actuarial adjustment for pension delay affect retirement and claiming decisions?

AbstractWe investigate the impact of a 2005 policy that provided more generous terms for delaying state pensions in the United Kingdom. First, we find that the policy reduced the fraction of males and possibly females receiving pensions at the earliest eligibility age and shortly thereafter. This shift affected cohorts who became eligible for state pensions at or after the policy change. Second, the policy is associated with increases in male and female labor supply around the earliest pension eligibility age, consistent with some individuals working longer to finance pension delay. However, further analysis suggests that these labor supply changes are more likely to reflect longer-term trends across birth cohorts rather than a causal effect of the policy.

Gender and Racial Discrimination in Hiring Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from a Field Experiment of Accountants, 2018-2020.

In this article, we ask whether macro-level changes during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to changes in the levels of discrimination against women and Black job-seekers at the point of hire. We develop three main hypotheses: that discrimination against women and Black job-seekers increases due to a reduction in labor demand; that discrimination against women decreases due to the reduced supply of women employees and applicants; and that discrimination against Black job-seekers decreases due to increased attention toward racial inequities associated with the Black Lives Matter protests during the summer of 2020. We test these hypotheses using a correspondence audit study collected over two periods, before and during the early COVID-19 pandemic, for one professional occupation: accountants. We find that White women experience a positive change in callbacks during the pandemic, being preferred over White men, and this change is concentrated in geographic areas that experienced relatively larger decreases in women's labor supply. Black women experience discrimination pre-pandemic but receive similar callbacks to White men during the pandemic. In contrast to both White and Black women, discrimination against Black men is persistent before and during the pandemic. Our findings are consistent with the prediction of gender-specific changes in labor supply being associated with gender-specific changes in hiring discrimination during the COVID-19 pandemic. More broadly, our study shows how hiring decision-making is related to macro-level labor market processes.

Prediction Algorithm of Labor Employment Capacity and Structure Based on Improved Genetic Algorithm

As a general economic resource or capital, labor plays a vital role in the development of a country. The improvement of people’s living standards is the fundamental purpose of economic development. The economic development of a country is impossible from the support of the labor force. The supply and support of the labor force will directly affect the normal operation of a country’s economy. Since the reforms are opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in rapid economic development, but some new problems have gradually emerged in the labor market. On the one hand, important changes have taken place in the supply and demand situation of the labor market. The labor shortage crisis has started to spread across the country. With the increase of labor costs of enterprises and the adjustment of industrial structure, the problems of employment in the labor market such as large-scale layoffs and reduction of labor have become more prominent. On the other hand, the population’s age structure is gradually changing. China is about to enter an aging society in the future. This means that the proportion of old people towards youngsters will increase. At that time, China’s huge population size will likely evolve from a booster of economic growth to a burden on the economy. Therefore, the labor structure needs to be optimized urgently. Deepening the reforms requires China to transform its growth model and develop knowledge-intensive industries. It requires optimizing the capacity and structure of the labor market and improving the quality of the labor force. Measuring the total workforce in the future is an important prerequisite for addressing various challenges in the new situation. A genetic algorithm is a computational model of the biological evolution process that simulates the natural selection and genetic mechanism of Darwin’s theory of biological evolution. This is a technique of modeling the natural evolution process to get the best solution. In data mining, genetic algorithm has been widely used around the world. It is an important development direction to use them to effectively mine and predict data. Based on the changes in the age structure of the population, this paper will use an improved genetic algorithm. This algorithm will calculate the total labor supply and structural changes in China in the next few years. This study will provide a reference for the formulation of China’s macroeconomic and population policies.