Future Changes Research Articles

Inequities in Unmet Oral Care Needs after a Swedish Subsidization Reform: An Intersectional Analysis.

The main strategy to achieve equal provision of oral care in Sweden has been to offer partial subsidies for the adult population. However, their effects on unmet oral care needs (UOCNs) have not been extensively assessed. This study used an intersectionality framework to examine 1) the overall frequency of UOCNs, 2) single-indicator inequities, and 3) intersectional inequities in total UOCNs and financial-related UOCNs (FUOCNs) in Sweden before and after implementation of a partial subsidization reform in 2008. Data from 12 national surveys conducted over 2004 to 2018 were divided into 3 periods: prereform (2004 to 2007), early postreform (2008 to 2011), and late postreform (2012 to 2018). The analytic sample consisted of 98,177 respondents aged 24 to 84 y. Changes in the prevalence of UOCNs were estimated by inferential statistics. Single-indicator and intersectional inequities were examined by intersectional analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy, across 48 strata defined by gender, age, educational level, income, and immigrant status. The prevalence of total UOCNs and FUOCNs decreased significantly early after the reform, followed by a slight rebound. Relative inequities increased by education, income, and immigrant status after the reform and decreased for age. The discriminatory accuracy for both types of UOCNs was moderate and improved marginally but significantly with the inclusion of the intersectional strata. Most intersectional strata showed greater FUOCN inequities after the reform. Contrary to expected, larger inequities in FUOCNs were identified in most intersectional strata after the reform. The moderate discriminatory accuracy suggested that Sweden could benefit from future strategies to foster equity that are universal but proportionately more intense among the intersectional strata with greater inequities (proportionate universalism). This analysis highlighted the benefit of adopting the principle of proportionate universalism as a strategy to reduce unmet oral care needs in Sweden. This would mean implementing universal strategies and specific support measures for the most vulnerable social groups as a future oral care policy change in Sweden.

Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems

The stability of future carbon sinks is crucial for accurately predicting the global carbon cycle. However, the future dynamics and stability of carbon sinks remain largely unknown, especially in China, a significant global carbon sink region. Here, we examined the dynamics and stability of carbon sinks in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2015 to 2,100 under two CMIP6 scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), using XGBoost and SHAP models to quantify the impact of climatic drivers on carbon sink stability. China’s future terrestrial ecosystems will act as a “carbon sink” (0.27–0.33 PgC/yr), with an initial increase that levels off over time. Although the carbon sink capacity increases, its stability does not consistently improve. Specifically, the stability of carbon sinks in future China’s terrestrial ecosystems transitions from strengthening to weakening, primarily occurring in areas with higher carbon sink capacity. Further analysis revealed that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature (Tas) are the two primary factors influencing carbon sink stability, with significant differences in their impacts across different scenarios. Under the SSP245 scenario, variations in VPD (VPD.CV) regulate water availability through stomatal conductance, making it the key driver of changes in carbon sink stability. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, although VPD.CV still plays an important role, temperature variability (Tas.CV) becomes the dominant factor, with more frequent extreme climate events exacerbating carbon cycle instability. The study highlights the differences in driving factors of carbon sink stability under different scenarios and stresses the importance of considering these differences, along with the scale and stability of carbon sinks, when developing long-term carbon management policies to effectively support carbon neutrality goals.

Human resource management in homecare in England: managing people for safe care during crisis

BackgroundHuman resource management (HRM) of healthcare organisations plays an important role in improving the continuity of care, managing staff, and ensuring patient safety. During COVID-19, there were several HR-related issues, creating a significant challenging situation for health and social care institutions. This study explored the HRM issues that are associated with the patient safety in homecare, and how homecare providers have responded to these HR-related challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this is to explore the role of HRM practices in helping care organisations operate efficiently and supporting their workforce to adapt to future disruptive changes and crises.MethodsQualitative strategies include narrative inquiry involving gathering information in the form of storytelling by the research participants. Between February 2021 and December 2021, data were collected through semi-structured interviews of 31 participants, including homecare staff (homecare transition practitioners, homecare social workers, and carers), family members, and service users in England.ResultsThe research identified key HRM challenges during the pandemic, including staff shortages, high turnover, ineffective communication, occupational stress for front-line carers, and lack of training, all adversely affecting the safety of homecare patients. In response, homecare providers employed strategies like opportunistic recruitment, digital technology for training and communication, and flexible work arrangements to mitigate these issues.ConclusionsSeveral implications are proposed, with the over-riding aim of ensuring effective management of HRM practices in responding to address key areas: staffing, performance management, and training. Homecare providers should utilise short-term adaptive recruitment strategies, while also focusing on long-term workforce development and resilience to effectively respond to current and future care needs. Prioritising staff well-being for retention and care quality are crucial. Homecare providers are encouraged to offer flexible work arrangements and digital communication methods, all while being mindful of preventing technostress and digital exhaustion among their staff. They also need to bridge training gaps and employ effective delivery methods to equip healthcare workers with essential skills, thereby enhancing resilience and adaptability in homecare.

Salt-wedge estuary's response to rising sea level, reduced discharge, and Nature-Based Solution

Vulnerable estuaries face resilience challenges against climate-induced salinization. This study examines the Po di Goro estuary in the Northern Adriatic Sea using an innovative modeling approach. It assesses the effectiveness of a Nature-Based Solution in reducing the threat of salt-wedge intrusion. An intermediate-complexity numerical model is considered, leveraging its low computational cost, which is suitable for climate projections, along with robust physics encompassing the main estuarine processes. Two centennial climate experiments covering 1991–2100 are proposed following a mechanistic modeling approach to understand the compound effects of sea level rise and river discharge changes. The first experiment is a full forcing experiment. The second experiment uses the same model but removes the sea level rise as an input forcing. A third experiment, referred to as the Digital Twin Experiment, assesses the effectiveness of a location-specific Nature-Based Solution. This experiment specifically examines the impact of reducing salt levels in the water by using a halophyte plant along the estuary. The results show that, in a future climate change scenario, the salt-wedge intrusion increases. This response is due to the non-linear combination of reduced river discharge and the local sea level rise. The discharge decrease acts as the main driver in the mid-term future (i.e., 2050–2080). In the long-term future (i.e., 2080–2100), the local sea level rise becomes more relevant as the discharge trend is expected to be null. The salt-wedge intrusion in the Po di Goro is projected to increase up to 63% annually (120% in summertime). Additionally, the river mouth salinity could rise by 27% annually (69% in summertime) in the long-term future (2081–2100). The halophyte plant, Atriplex portulaciodes, proposed as Nature-Based Solution, could reduce salt-wedge intrusion in the Po di Goro by up to 16% annually (22% in summer) in the long-term future. In the short-term future, this Nature-Based Solution may be effective enough to counteract the salt increase.

TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RESTAURANT SERVICES MARKET: METHODS OF DETERMINATION AND CHARACTERISTICS

Methodical approaches to determining the current state and development trends of the restaurant services market which serve as a toolkit for forecasting future dynamic changes in the industry and planning measures for the adaptation of enterprises to the new conditions of the organization of their activities are considered in the article. The purpose of this article is the study of modern trends in the development of the restaurant services market and the formation of methodical approaches to their determination. In this study, based on the analysis of the external environment of restaurant establishments, the main methods for determining the current state of the catering services market are established, which include the methods of analyzing market stability, consumer preferences, competitive environment, and segmentation. With the help of the formed methodological toolkit, the following is carried out: survey of consumers; study of new popular dishes, recipes, technologies and trends in the industry; analysis of menus, concepts, price policy; forecasting future directions of industry development. The use of these methods allows: to determine the features of demand, supply and market equilibrium; evaluate and characterize changes in consumer needs; establish competitive advantages and disadvantages in the operation of the enterprise; determine the target audience according to established criteria. Based on the mentioned approaches and methods, the main trends affecting the development of the restaurant services market were identified and characterized. Thus, it was proven that the key directions of the development of the restaurant services market are the growing popularity of healthy food, the development of social media and information technologies, technological progress, and the development of gastronomic tourism. Certain methods are used as a tool for determining trends in the development of the industry, which provide the ability to adapt restaurant enterprises to dynamic changes in the service market. They include: marketing research methods, analysis of trends in the gastronomic industry, observation of competitors, cooperation with specialists and experts, analysis of changes in consumer demand. With the help of these methods, the main trends in the development of the restaurant business were determined, namely: economic, gastronomic, technological innovations, macroeconomic and demographic factors. These trends characterize the demand for restaurant services, the development of the restaurant business, digital development, changing consumption habits and the state of the consumer market.

A circumpolar review of the breeding distribution and habitat use of the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea), the world’s most southerly breeding vertebrate

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of many polar seabird species is incomplete due to the remoteness of their breeding locations. Here, we compiled a new database of published and unpublished records of all known snow petrel Pagodroma nivea breeding sites. We quantified local environmental conditions at sites by appending indices of climate and substrate, and regional-scale conditions by appending 30 year mean (1992–2021) sea-ice conditions within accessible foraging areas. Breeding snow petrels are reported at 456 sites across Antarctica and subantarctic islands. Although many counts are old or have large margins of error, population estimates available for 222 known sites totalled a minimum of ~ 77400 breeding pairs. However with so many missing data, the true breeding population will be much higher. Most sites are close to the coast (median = 1.15 km) and research stations (median = 26 km). Median distance to the November sea-ice edge (breeding season sea-ice maximum) is 430 km. Locally, most nests occur in cavities in high-grade metamorphic rocks. Minimum air temperatures occur at inland sites, and maxima at their northern breeding limit. Breeding location and cavity selection is likely determined by availability of suitable breeding substrate within sustainable distance of suitable foraging habitat. Within this range, nest sites may then be selected based on local conditions such as cavity size and aspect. Our database will allow formal analyses of habitat selection and provides a baseline against which to monitor future snow petrel distribution changes in response to climate change.

Soil CO2 efflux response to two decades of altered carbon inputs in a temperate coniferous forest

Global soils play a critical role in carbon (C) cycling and storage, and even minor disturbances to soil C flux can cause CO2 release to the atmosphere, exacerbating the greenhouse effect. This study investigates the long-term effects of forest detrital manipulation on soil CO2 efflux at a temperate forest site in Oregon’s western Cascade Mountains. We assessed the variation in seasonal and diurnal autotrophic and heterotrophic contributions to in situ soil CO2 efflux after 25 + years of detritus additions and removals and found slight increases in soil CO2 efflux rates concurrent with slight increases in soil C stocks, relative to C input rates, that may reflect underlying changes to C cycling in this system resulting from sustained detritus manipulation coupled with environmental change. Total CO2 efflux experienced increased contributions from functionally autotrophic root and rhizosphere respiration relative to the heterotrophic component. Seasonal and diurnal differences between soil respiration rates by treatment suggest a soil moisture buffering effect provided by the extra woody detritus that may support vegetative growth at times when seasonal drought would ordinarily slow plant and soil microbial metabolic activity. Overall, this research highlights the long-term effects of sustained litter additions and removals on soil CO2 efflux, which can help illuminate the response of C cycling in forests to current and future global change.

Mapping potential environmental impacts of alien species in the face of climate change

Risk maps are a useful tool to prioritise sites for management and allocate resources where they are most needed as they can show us where impacts of biological invasions are most likely to happen or expected to be largest. Given the pace of global changes, we need to understand not only the risks under current conditions, but future risks taking these changes into account. In this study, we use Australian acacias alien to South Africa as a case study to model their potential distribution under future climate change to map their potential impacts at the middle and end of the century and the uncertainty related to three socio-economic pathways and five climatic models. The resulting risk maps across South Africa are a pioneering attempt to combine impacts of alien species with potential future distributions. We found that although climatic suitability and therefore the risk is predicted to decrease under climate change in 51,4% of the country’s area, the opposite is predicted for 26% of the area and the highly vulnerable fynbos biome remains an area with high projected impacts. Such risk maps can help us prioritise management actions and aid the development of suitable plans to protect biodiversity under current and future climate conditions. However, they have to be interpreted with caution and we highlight some shortcomings around species distribution models in general, vulnerability of ecosystems to the potential impacts, data gaps on impacts, as well as currently benign or unknown invaders, which are not included in the projections.

Exploring perceptions and experiences of gender-based violence among women in a refugee camp setting in Uganda-A qualitative study.

Gender-based violence (GBV) is an internationally widespread human rights and public health issue, known to be exacerbated and underreported in humanitarian settings and among conflict-affected populations. A combination of factors including increased vulnerability, lack of protection and marginalization are believed to increase the risk for GBV in settings such as displacement and refugee camps. An increased understanding of GBV in these populations is needed to inform and improve future policy changes and interventions. This qualitative study sought to explore women's perceptions and experiences of GBV in a refugee camp setting in Uganda to increase the understanding of the dynamics and risk contexts of GBV in the context of displacement and refugee camps. This was a qualitative study based on individual semi-structured interviews and content analysis. The interviews were conducted during October 2023 with women living in a refugee camp setting in Western Uganda. The participants (N = 13) included female refugees, residing in the refugee camp, above eighteen years of age and who were survivors of GBV. Findings showed no easy escape route from gender-based violence, with a high exposure to GBV throughout the refugee experience. The nature of GBV, the perpetrators and risk contexts however seemed to shift throughout the process from conflict to the refugee camp. Increased marginalization and lack of resources compounded by a shift in gender roles in the refugee camp where women seemed to assume the role of the primary provider increased the risk of violence in pursuit of basic needs. Women described extensive intimate partner violence (IPV) in the camp often connected to new gendered power dynamics and the control of resources. Faced with the struggles of migration, marginalization, and GBV, women displayed various coping mechanisms including rebuilding networks and support systems. Our study showed the complexity of GBV in settings such as refugee camps, where various structural and individual changes involved in migration and life in a refugee camp seemed to create new risk contexts for GBV both inside and outside of the household. Interventions across various dimensions including addressing underlying conditions of marginalization and gendered power dynamics are therefore warranted to address GBV in refugee camps. Further research is essential to better understand this complex issue, as well as the perception and effectiveness of services and interventions in place.

Uncharted territory: the arrival of Psychoda albipennis (Zetterstedt, 1850) (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Maritime Antarctica

Despite increasing awareness of the threats they pose, exotic species continue to arrive in Antarctica with anthropogenic assistance, some of which inevitably have the potential to become aggressively invasive. Here, we provide the first report of the globally cosmopolitan species Psychoda albipennis (Diptera, Psychodidae; commonly known as moth flies) in Antarctica during the austral summer of 2021/2022, with the identification confirmed using traditional taxonomic and molecular approaches. The species was present in very large numbers and, although predominantly associated with the drainage and wastewater systems of Antarctic national operator stations in synanthropic situations, it was also present in surrounding natural habitats. While it is unclear if P. albipennis is capable of long-distance dispersal, adult psychodid flies are known to travel more than 90 m from their emergence sites, and up to 1.5 km with wind assistance. Thus, once established in the natural environment of King George Island there appears to be a high risk of the species rapidly becoming invasive. The introduction of non-native species such as P. albipennis can be a significant driver of future biodiversity change and loss, and seriously impact ecosystem health. In vulnerable low diversity ecosystems, such as in the terrestrial environments of Antarctica, non-native species can lead to step changes in ecological functions and interactions, displace native species and, potentially, lead to the extinction of native biota.

Run-off impacts on Arctic kelp holobionts have strong implications on ecosystem functioning and bioeconomy

Kelps (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae) are foundation species along Arctic rocky shores, providing the basis for complex ecosystems and supporting a high secondary production. Due to ongoing climate change glacial and terrestrial run-off are currently accelerating, drastically changing physical and chemical water column parameters, e.g., water transparency for photosynthetically active radiation or dissolved concentrations of (harmful) elements. We investigated the performance and functioning of Arctic kelp holobionts in response to run-off gradients, with a focus on the effect of altered element concentrations in the water column. We found that the kelp Saccharina latissima accumulates harmful elements (e.g., cadmium, mercury) originating from coastal run-off. As kelps are at the basis of the food web, this might lead to biomagnification, with potential consequences for high-latitude kelp maricultures. In contrast, the high biosorption potential of kelps might be advantageous in monitoring environmental pollution or potentially extracting dissolved rare earth elements. Further, we found that the relative abundances of several kelp-associated microbial taxa significantly responded to increasing run-off influence, changing the kelps functioning in the ecosystem, e.g., the holobionts nutritional value and elemental cycling. The responses of kelp holobionts to environmental changes imply cascading ecological and economic consequences for Arctic kelp ecosystems in future climate change scenarios.

A Slower North Equatorial Countercurrent but Faster Equatorial Undercurrent in a Warming Climate

Abstract We analyze century-end projections for the tropical Pacific upper-ocean currents simulated within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under global warming. We find that while the intensity of precipitation within the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) increases, the ITCZ also shifts toward the equator and broadens, which reduces wind stress curl north of the equator. Consequently, the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) shifts equatorward, following the ITCZ, and weakens, despite the more intense ITCZ. The strength of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the South Equatorial Current (SEC) also decreases due to the weakening of the Walker circulation and the corresponding wind stress. However, despite the weaker winds, the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) intensifies as it shoals due to stronger vertical stratification induced by surface warming. Furthermore, we find a slightly stronger zonal pressure gradient along the core of the EUC, instead of a weaker one expected from weaker wind stress and sea surface height (SSH) gradient along the equator. Ultimately, we suggest that the reduced vertical friction, driven by enhanced ocean stratification and a higher Richardson number, is essential for the accelerated EUC. These intricate balances control future changes in equatorial currents, and the uncertainties of projected changes need to be further examined.

Contrasting Southern Ocean Sea Level Responses to Surface Flux Changes in Eddy-Rich and Eddy-Parameterized Climate Model Configurations

Abstract The impact of ocean model resolution on sea level projections in the Southern Ocean is investigated using eddy-rich (ER) and eddy-parameterized configurations of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario. We employ the Flux-Anomaly Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) experiment—heat, stress, and freshwater perturbations—at both resolutions to pinpoint the sources of these differences. South of 55°S, we found that the changes in thermosteric and halosteric sea levels vary substantially between resolutions due to different responses to freshwater perturbations. In the eddy-parameterized model, the resulting increase in stratification suppresses the mixing of salt and heat from the Circumpolar Deep Water with surface layers. These cause differences in the response of surface fluxes and meridional transports yielding an increase in thermosteric sea levels and a decrease in halosteric sea levels. In the eddy-rich configuration, the main driver of eddy-induced warming and salinification between 40° and 44°S is wind stress perturbations. The efficiency of direct eddy effects in ER is restricted to small areas such as the Agulhas Retroflection, the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone, the Tasman Sea, and, to some extent, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Contrary to expectations, ACC transport increases in the eddy-rich model while decreasing in the eddy-parameterized model under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. FAFMIP results reveal that this decrease is a result of the overcompensation of wind-induced changes by freshwater flux forcing. These results underscore the critical importance of high-resolution models for capturing the processes in sea level projections in the Southern Ocean and beyond. Significance Statement We studied how ocean model resolution affects sea level projections in the Southern Ocean using Max Planck Institute Earth System Model simulations. Higher-resolution models provide a more accurate representation of ocean circulation and its response to changing forcings. We examined how surface heat, momentum, and water fluxes, both separately and combined, shape ocean dynamics. In a strong global warming scenario, significant differences in steric sea level change were observed south of 55°S between the model that simulates eddies and the one that has their effects parameterized. The response to surface freshwater forcing is the primary cause of these differences. Our findings emphasize the critical role of ocean model resolution in accurately understanding and predicting future sea level changes, which is essential for effectively addressing our needs for adaptation.

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Reproductive performance of Channa striata in wetland ecosystems: a fuzzy logic approach to water quality and eco-climatic factors for long-term sustainable management and aquaculture advancement.

The striped snakehead, Channa striata, is commercially and nutritionally important due to its medicinal properties, such as wound healing and antimicrobial abilities. This study investigated the reproductive biology of C. striata in relation to hydro-climatic changes using a fuzzy logic approach for long-term management in the wetland ecosystem (Gajner beel), Bangladesh. A total of 1200 C. striata individuals were collected monthly during January to December 2019 using various fishing methods. Measurements of total length (TL), body weight (BW), and gonad weight (GW) were taken with a precision of 0.01cm and 0.01g, respectively. The GSI (gonadosomatic index in %), MGSI (modified gonadosomatic index in %), and DI (Dobriyal index) were used to determine size at sexual maturity (Lm) and the spawning season. Results revealed a wide range of TL, ranging from 12.7 to 46cm. The Lm was estimated between 21.7 and 25.33cm based on various model as TL vs. GSI, MGSI, and DI; TL-fork length (FL) regressions; and maximum length (Lmax) for this species. The spawning period was observed from April to July, peaking in May, indicated by higher GSI, MGSI, and DI values. Eco-climatic factors showed a significant relationship with GSI, except for total dissolved solids (TDS). Rising temperatures and declining rainfall could delay spawning of C. striata. A fuzzy logic approach was employed to predict future GSI changes over extended periods (e.g., 50 or 60years), enabling anticipation of shifts in the timing and duration of the spawning season. Finally, the findings of our research might be effective to carry out specific conservation efforts of C. striata in response to climate variability in sub-tropical water.

Future Subnational Population Change in Germany: The Role of Internal and International Migration

ABSTRACTPopulation change in Germany at the subnational level is particularly driven by changes in net international migration and shifts in internal migration flows between urbanisation, suburbanisation and counter‐urbanisation. Official population projections at the county level use a single scenario, thereby omitting uncertainty that arises from changing patterns in the assumed components of demographic change. We use a cohort‐component model that incorporates the spatial distribution of a net number of international migrants and internal migration matrices to provide population projections for 401 counties in Germany until 2070, encompassing nine total international and internal migration scenario combinations. Our results show a full potential outcome space of future subnational population change in Germany and highlight the variability in this possible change in terms of population structure, size, and spatial distribution. Across the scenarios, the total population of Germany is projected to be between 74.25 and 86.84 million people in 2040 (83.4 in 2023). There are also considerable differences in how the total population and its distribution might change spatially, both between urban and rural areas and in age structure. Thus, depending on the assumed absolute level of net international migration and the direction of internal migratory patterns we, highlight how internal and international migration patterns will continue to play a large role in future population development in Germany at the county level.

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

Prediction of short- and long-term atmospheric corrosion in the changing low pollution climate for inland and coastal areas

Abstract This paper studies the impact of the changing climate on atmospheric corrosion loss in the future low pollution environment. Two climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) are studied and they reveal a warmer environment with decreasing sulphur dioxide contamination and slightly changed relative humidity and precipitation from 2010 to 2100. As a consequence, environment corrosivity is both enhanced by increased time-of-wetness and weakened by decreased sulphur dioxide deposition rate. To consider the low pollution environment in the future changing climate, a relative error minimized short-term corrosion model and a re-scaled power-linear long-term corrosion model are proposed. Corrosion loss evaluation results show that, on the overall scale which is mainly representative of remote rural areas, first-year corrosion loss C of different metals under the two SSPs has different trends. On the regional scale of urban and marine areas with high SO2 or Cl− levels, C will decrease continuously under both SSPs for all three metals. The long-term corrosion loss will also decrease as the environment continues to be less and less corrosive.

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Societal Impact StatementForest ecosystems absorb and store about 25% of global carbon dioxide emissions annually and are increasingly shaped by human land use and management. Climate change interacts with land use and forest dynamics to influence observed carbon stocks and the strength of the land carbon sink. We show that climate change effects on modeled forest land carbon stocks are strongest in tropical wildlands that have limited human influence. Global forest carbon stocks and carbon sink strength may decline as climate change and anthropogenic influences intensify, with wildland tropical forests, especially in Amazonia, likely being especially vulnerable.Summary Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900‐present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land‐use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

Barriers, facilitators and next steps for sustaining and scaling virtual hospital services in Australia: aqualitative descriptive study.

To describe the barriers to and facilitators of implementing and delivering virtual hospital (VH) services, and evidence and practice gaps where further research and policy changes are needed to drive continuous improvement. Qualitative descriptive study. Online semi-structured interviews and a focus group were conducted between July 2022 and April 2023 with doctors, nurses and leadership staff involved in VH services at three sites in New South Wales, Australia. Barriers to and facilitators of implementing and delivering VH services in sites with differing operating structures and levels of maturity, and evidence and practice gaps relating to VH services. A total of 22 individuals took part in the study. Barriers, facilitators, and evidence and practice gaps emerged within five major themes: scope and structure of VH services; development and implementation of VH models of care; delivery of VH models of care; evaluation of VHs and VH models of care; and sustainment and scalability of VH services. Facilitators of VH success included hybrid approaches to care, partnerships with external services, and skills of the VH workforce. Barriers and gaps in evidence and practice included technical challenges, the need to define the role of VH services, the need to evaluate the tangible impact of VH care models and technologies, and the need to develop funding models that support VH care delivery. Participants also highlighted the perceived impacts and benefits of VH services on the workforce (within and beyond the VH setting), consumers, and the health care system. Our findings can help inform the development of new VH services and the improvement of existing VH services. As VH services become more mainstream, gaps in evidence and practice must be addressed by future research and policy changes to maximise the benefits.