Chance Of Passage Research Articles

Ideology, Party, and Opinions of Taxes on the Rich and Middle Class in the United States: Evidence from the 2016 General Social Survey

This paper examines attitudes toward taxes on the rich and middle class in the United States with emphasis on the impacts of political ideology and party identification. Using the 2016 General Social Survey, we estimate bivariate ordered probit models for a full cross-sectional sample, and subsamples stratified by party. Results suggest that proposals to reduce income and wealth inequalities and/or fund large federal expenditure increases by raising taxes on the rich will have difficulty in gaining the political traction necessary for success. Any proposal to raise taxes on both the rich and middle class has almost no chance of passage. Findings also indicate that party affiliation moderates ideological impacts on opinions of taxes on the rich and middle class, in some cases substantially.

The success of legislators’ bills in strong presidential systems: Chile, 1990–2018

ABSTRACT In democracies where the executive has bill initiation powers and controls the legislative agenda, most laws enacted should come from executive-initiated bills. In Chile’s strong presidential system where the executive has broad legislative powers, one in three laws enacted are legislator-initiated. We postulate 5 hypotheses on the effect of the attributes of the authors of a bill on its success. We test them using sequential logit models, to distinguish between partial and overall success (passing the original chamber and getting enacted, respectively). We utilise the 6005 legislator-initiated bills introduced in the Chamber of Deputies of Chile (1990–2018) – 15.2% of those bills passed the chamber and 8.1% were enacted. Bills concurrently authored by government and opposition legislators are more likely to pass. Having more authors increases a bill’ chances of passing in the first chamber but not the changes of overall passage. A higher presence of first-term legislators reduces the chances of passage.

Shared decision making: why do patients choose ureteroscopy?

To evaluate patient's characteristics that affects their decision on the management of asymptomatic renal calculi, and to determine the impact of anesthetic on the selection of shockwave lithotripsy (SWL). A survey was distributed to 100 patients in our multi-disciplinary stone clinic. The patients were given a hypothetical scenario of an asymptomatic 8 mm lower pole stone and descriptions for managements options including active surveillance (annual radiography, 40% chance of growth >10 mm within 4 years, 20% chance of passage), SWL under conscious sedation (65% success rate), and URS (90% success rate, with stent placement for 1 week). Patients were asked what was the most important variable impacting the choice of treatment. Patients preferred SWL (45%) over URS (32%) and active surveillance (23%). Patients with a previous experience with URS were more likely to choose it again (p = 0.0433). Decisions were driven primarily by success rate (52%), followed by risk of complications (29%), postoperative pain (7%) and others (12%). Patients choosing URS had the highest magnitude of history of pain (p = 0.03) and were more likely to prioritize success (78%) and less likely to prioritize surgical risk (13%) or anticipated pain after surgery (0%) (p = 0.01). Most (85%) of the patients would rely on the physician's recommendation for the treatment modality. Patients place differing value on risk versus success. As they rely heavily on the physician's recommendation, it is important that their urologist determine whether risk or success is of highest priority for them to facilitate a shared medical decision.

The equine guttural pouch: Clinically relevant anatomy and basic treatment options for trauma

The equine guttural pouch: Clinically relevant anatomy and basic treatment options for trauma

On working for Henry Waxman.

On working for Henry Waxman.

Patient Decision Making for Asymptomatic Renal Calculi: Balancing Benefit and Risk

To evaluate which variables affect patients' decisions on the management of asymptomatic renal calculi. We hypothesized that patients who had experienced greater pain, passed larger or more stones, or passed stones more recently would be more likely to choose surgical intervention (ureteroscopy [URS] or shock wave lithotripsy [ESWL]) instead of observation (OBS). The survey was distributed to 101 patients in our stone clinic. The patients were given a hypothetical scenario of an asymptomatic 8-mm lower pole stone and descriptions for OBS (annual radiography, 40% chance of growth >10 mm within 4 years, 20% chance of passage), ESWL (65% success rate), and URS (90% success rate, with stent placement for 1 week). The patients were also asked whether they would rather defer the decision to their physician. Of the patients, 22.8% chose OBS, 29.7% chose URS, and 47.5% chose ESWL. The patients who had passed larger stones (P = .029) were less likely to choose OBS over surgery. Of the 78 patients who chose intervention, 61.5% preferred ESWL. The patients were more likely to choose URS if they had previously undergone URS (P = .0064) and stent placement (P = .048), and the patients were more likely to choose ESWL if they had a previously undergone ESWL (P = .019). Surgical choice was not affect by size of the largest stone passed (P = .46), date of last passage (P = .080), previous pain intensity (P = .11), previous percutaneous nephrolithotomy (P = .73), or number of stones passed (P = .51). Finally, 56.4% of patients deferred the decision of the treatment approach to the physician. Previous stone experience and treatment significantly affected treatment choice. Patients rely on their physician to educate them on the alternatives and play an active role in selecting the treatment approach.

2260 PATIENT PREFERENCES IN STONE SURGERY: THE INFORMED CONSENT APPROACH

You have accessJournal of UrologyStone Disease: Evaluation & Medical Management II1 Apr 20122260 PATIENT PREFERENCES IN STONE SURGERY: THE INFORMED CONSENT APPROACH Carl Sarkissian, Mark Noble, Jianbo Li, and Manoj Monga Carl SarkissianCarl Sarkissian Cleveland, OH More articles by this author , Mark NobleMark Noble Cleveland, OH More articles by this author , Jianbo LiJianbo Li Cleveland, OH More articles by this author , and Manoj MongaManoj Monga Cleveland, OH More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2012.02.2437AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES We aimed to evaluate what variables impact patients' decisions on the management of asymptomatic renal calculi, to test our hypothesis that patients who have experienced greater pain, passed larger stones, passed more stones, or passed stones more recently, are more likely to choose surgical intervention (ureteroscopy (URS) or shockwave lithotrispy (SWL)) over observational (OBS) management. It is often believed SWL is an overused treatment method by physicians, so we hoped to characterize patient preferences and identify how past experiences affect a patient's decision between URS and SWL. METHODS An anonymous survey was randomly distributed to 101 patients in our stone clinic. Patients were given a hypothetical scenario of an asymptomatic 8mm lower pole renal stone, and were asked to choose one of three treatment options: 1 OBS (annual x-ray, 40% chance growth to larger than 10mm over4 years and no longer option of SWL, 30% chance over 4 years of moving into ureter, 20% chance of passage). 2 SWL (65% success, 1/1000 risk of serious bleed, 1/100 risk of emergent 2nd procedure). 3 URS (90% success, stent required for 1 week - 80% chance will cause bladder and/or kidney pain - 10% will experience significant discomfort, 1/1000 risk of major ureteral injury requiring major surgery, 1/100 risk of minor injury requiring 2-3 weeks w/ stent). Patients also asked whether they would rather defer the decision to their physician. Answers were correlated to the total number of previous stones passed, date of last stone passage, size of largest stone passed, worst pain from stones, and surgical stone history (stent/SWL/URS/PCNL). RESULTS Patients elected OBS 22.8%, URS 29.7%, and SWL 47.5%. Patients who passed larger stones (p=0.029) and a greater number of stones (p=0.0055) were less likely to choose OBS over surgical intervention. Of the 78 patients who chose intervention, 61.5% preferred SWL over URS. Patients were more likely to choose URS if they previously had a URS (p=0.0064) and stent (p=0.048), while patients were more likely to choose SWL if they had a previous SWL (p=0.019). Surgical choice was not impacted by size of largest stone passed (p=0.46), date of last stone passage (p=0.080), previous pain intensity (p=0.11), previous PCNL (p=0.73), or # of stones passed (p=0.51). 56.4% of patients deferred treatment approach to the physician. CONCLUSIONS Past stone experiences and treatments significantly affect treatment choice. Patients rely on their physician not only to educate them on the alternatives, but also to play an active role in selecting the treatment approach. © 2012 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 187Issue 4SApril 2012Page: e912 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2012 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Carl Sarkissian Cleveland, OH More articles by this author Mark Noble Cleveland, OH More articles by this author Jianbo Li Cleveland, OH More articles by this author Manoj Monga Cleveland, OH More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...

Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives

The conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more to support their ballot measure when, without that spending, their ballot measure is more likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive data set of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood.

Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives

The conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more when their ballot measure is likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive dataset of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood.

Emergency Room Management of Ureteral Calculi: Current Practices

To evaluate current practice patterns in U.S. emergency departments (EDs) for the diagnosis, treatment, and counseling of patients with ureteral calculi. Hospital-based ED physicians were invited by e-mail to participate in a Survey-Monkey survey. E-mails were delivered in March 2008 by Direct Medical Data using a listserv provided by the American Medical Association. Of the e-mails sent, 173 e-mails were opened, and 135 physicians responded. Physicians were compensated with a $10 Amazon.com gift card. Ninety percent of ED physicians use noncontrast CT as their initial imaging modality, and 63% use alpha-blockers for medical expulsive therapy. Only 13% of evaluated EDs have guidelines for the management of renal colic, and only 58% of these guidelines that recommend the use of an alpha-blocker. Alpha-blocker use was more common with physicians who have been practicing fewer than 5 years (81%) compared with those with more than 10 years of experience (56%). The majority of physicians used ketorolac and morphine to achieve effective analgesia. Although the average responses concerning the chance of spontaneous stone passage for stones <or=4 mm (87%) and >4 mm (44%) were close to evidence-based values, great variation in the answers was noted (standard deviations: 12% and 22%, respectively). Indeed, 38% of respondents stated that stones <or=4 mm had a >95% chance of passage. Twenty-eight percent of ED physicians would arrange follow-up with a primary care physician, while the remainder would arrange follow-up with a urologist. This study establishes a need for educational opportunities for ED physicians in the management of renal colic. The development of collaborative practice guidelines between urology and emergency medicine associations may be warranted.

Constitutional Implications of Regional CO2 Cap-and-Trade Programs: The Northeast Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative as a Case in Point

I. INTRODUCTION II. THE RGGI III. PREEMPTION IV. COMPACT CLAUSE V. THE DORMANT COMMERCE CLAUSE A. Offsets B. Leakage VI. CONCLUSION I. INTRODUCTION For eight years the Bush administration avoided addressing global warming, first denying its existence, then denying its anthropogenic contributions, and finally denying the government's legal ability to combat it. There is a new administration, however, and Presidential candidate Obama campaigned in favor of a national cap-and-trade program. Nevertheless, there are many matters of critical importance on the U.S. Congress' plate, and as of this writing Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, was hoping to take up climate change legislation by the end of the summer of 2009. The chances of passage even then are not clear. Economic woes and Republican opposition could still do it in. This political reality suggests that existing and proposed regional cap-and-trade programs may have continuing importance. Consequently, the constitutional implications of these programs are worthy of consideration. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is already in effect in ten northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, (1) while the Western Climate Initiative and Mid-western Regional GHG Reduction Accord are still far from operational. This Article considers three possible constitutional issues with regard to a regional cap-and-trade program, focusing on the RGGI: preemption, the Compact Clause, and the Dormant Commerce Clause. II. THE RGGI The RGGI is a cooperative undertaking of ten states (2) that began in 2005 with a Memorandum of Understanding. (3) In 2006 the RGGI developed a Model Rule. (4) Each state undertook to cap overall C[O.sub.2] emissions from electrical generating plants in the state in accordance with the RGGI Model Rule. (5) In essence, beginning in 2009 and lasting until 2014, the cap is set at the estimated amount of emissions in 2008. Thereafter, the cap is decreased by 2.5 percent each year until 2018, for a total decrease in emissions of 10 percent from the 2008 baseline. Each fossil-fuel-fired electric generating unit serving a generator of twenty-five MW or larger must possess sufficient for its emissions in any compliance period. Most of these are sold at auction, and the purchasers can freely trade them on the market. Those who need more to cover their emissions will need to buy them; those that possess more than they need may sell them. The money generated by the auctions will be used to fund energy conservation, energy efficiency, and clean energy programs. The RGGI also allows for the assignment of allowances to generating facilities for certain types of projects that reduce or sequester greenhouse gas emissions in areas outside of electrical generation. Currently, only five types of projects can qualify for offset allowances. (6) Generally no more than 3.3 percent of a facility's can be offset allowances. (7) There are strict application and verification processes to qualify an offset. An offset project may be located in any state, not just a RGGI state, if the other state has a cooperating regulatory agency that has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the RGGI states to provide oversight of the offset projects in that state. The RGGI is implemented by each state enacting its own laws, which must conform to the RGGI Model Rule, to govern the generating facilities in its state. (8) RGGI, Inc., a nonprofit corporation, was created to provide technical and administrative services to the RGGI states. The allowance auctions are performed by World Energy Solutions, Inc., which operates online exchanges for energy and green commodities, and Potomac Economics, which performs monitoring and competitive assessment of wholesale electricity markets in the United States, oversees the auction. III. …

Just Semantics: The Lost Readings of the Americans with Disabilities Act

Disability rights advocates and commentators agree that the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) has veered far off course from the Act’s mandate of protecting people with actual or perceived disabilities from discrimination. They likewise agree that the fault lies in the language of the statute itself and in the courts’ so-called literalist reading of its definition of disability. As a result, many disability rights advocates have pinned their hopes for doctrinal reform on the proposed ADA Restoration Act, now in congressional committee. Although the Act would likely be a boon to plaintiffs, its chances of passage are uncertain. This Article tells a very different story of the problem and its solution. I agree that blame should fall on the courts, but not for reading the statute too closely. Rather, they have not read it closely enough. A truly rigorous interpretation of the ADA would expose a structural ambiguity in the regarded-as prong of the disability definition, with important consequences for interpretation. Although this ambiguity is a basic one — the kind that we resolve every day without thinking about it — it creates what is in fact a nine-way ambiguity in the statute. The courts have to date overlooked all but one of a corresponding nine readings; the other eight are effectively lost. Drawing on ordinary intuitions about sentence meaning, and borrowing some basic conceptual tools from formal linguistics, this Article aims to make ambiguity in the regarded-as prong visible to the reader. This opens the door to invoking the ADA’s rich legislative history for the purpose of resolving the ambiguity. Such history favors a broad reading of the statute and would mark a departure from an era of increasingly narrow interpretation of the ADA’s disability definition. Thus, while it may be a surprising alliance to consider, formal linguistic rigor in the hands of civil rights advocates holds the potential to realign ADA jurisprudence with the statute’s purpose.

Approach to the Patient with Accidentally Swallowing a Needle

People are capable of ingesting, inserting, or injecting themselves or others with all manner of foreign objects. Ingested or inserted foreign bodies may cause bowel obstruction or perforation; which lead to severe hemorrhage, abscess formation, or septicemia; or distant embolization. Fortunately, once a foreign body has reached the stomach, it has an 80-90% chance of passage. All sharp foreign bodies should be removed before they pass from the stomach because 15-35% of these will cause intestinal perforation, usually in the area of the ileocecal valve. The abdominal radiograph should be made and repeated to confirm the location of foreign bodies. If a sharp foreign body does not progress for three consecutive days, surgical intervention should be considered and, if the patient becomes symptomatic, surgical intervention will be necessary. In this case, the patient had accidentally swallowed needle 2 days prior to admission, with no complaint any symptoms of abdominal discomfort, and no bloody stools. Observation is the treatment of choice for this case, since needle had passed stomach and reached colon, and it is hoped that the needle pass through without any complication. Keywords : sharp foreign bodies, needle, swallowing

Advocates Vow to Fend Off Parity Bill Compromises

Advocates Vow to Fend Off Parity Bill Compromises

Different Ways to Compete

When it comes to improving U.S. innovation, some legislators are thinking big whereas others say that small is better. This week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) led a bipartisan coalition of senators endorsing the America COMPETES Act, a sprawling bill drawn from the recommendations of a 2005 National Academies report on how to strengthen the U.S. scientific enterprise ( Science , 21 October 2005, p. [423][1]). The proposal would authorize a doubling of funding for the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Science and support a raft of programs to train more scientists and improve science and math education at all grade levels. Reid said he plans a floor vote on the bill, whose provisions would cost $16 billion over 4 years, sometime next month. Meanwhile, the House Science and Technology Committee last week approved a measure to expand early career and graduate training programs at NSF and DOE and monitor the need for research instrumentation across the government. The bill (H.R. 363) addresses a tiny slice of what the Senate legislation covers, but the panel's chair, Representative Bart Gordon (D-TN), believes that narrowly focused legislation stands a better chance of passage by Congress. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.310.5747.423

Congress’s Psychiatrist Still Says Single-Payer System Needed

Back to table of contents Previous article Next article Government NewsFull AccessCongress’s Psychiatrist Still Says Single-Payer System NeededKate MulliganKate MulliganSearch for more papers by this authorPublished Online:19 Dec 2003https://doi.org/10.1176/pn.38.24.0010Rep. Jim McDermott, M.D. (D-Wash.), calls the recently passed Medicare legislation a “turkey” because of its diversion of funds that could have helped seniors rather than pharmaceutical and insurance companies.Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Wash.), the only psychiatrist in Congress, takes no pleasure in his prophetic abilities. In 1994 he warned APA members and anyone else who would listen about the potential hazards of managed care and urged support for a single-payer system of financing health care.McDermott told the audience at the William C. Menninger Memorial Convocation Lecture at APA’s annual meeting that year, “The wildfire of managed care competition is sweeping across the landscape of medical practice.” He also quoted health care economist Uwe Reinhardt, who had predicted that in five years all doctors would be “serfs of the insurance industry.”Earlier that year, McDermott, the only psychiatrist in Congress, urged APA’s Board of Trustees to support single-payer legislation, arguing, “[I]t is the only way you are going to have any chance in the future to have a say about health policy.”In a recent interview with Psychiatric News, he discussed the political and economic factors that affect the current debate about health care reform and his single-payer legislative proposal.“Everywhere you turn, there is another problem,” McDermott said. “The same tide that led to managed care in the early 1990s is building.”The number of people without health insurance is increasing, as is the cost of health care. Now, however, little or no hope remains that managed care can solve the fiscal and access problems of the health care system.“Our ability to deal with access problems is limited because there is no real health care system,” he said.As in the 1990s, health care reform has become an important political issue. According to an analysis in the September 30 New York Times, “[As] the plight of the uninsured becomes more of a middle-class issue, . . . it is more politically potent.”According to a September Gallup poll, 43 percent of Americans cited a candidate’s position on health care as “extremely important,” ranking just below terrorism and the economy.With the failure of managed care to reform the health care system, there appears to be increasing receptivity to proposals for a single-payer system of financing care.An ABC News-Washington Post poll released in late October found that by a margin of 62 percent to 32 percent the public favors a “universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that’s run by the government and financed by the taxpayers,” as opposed to the “current health insurance system, in which people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance.”That change is welcome news to McDermott, who introduced the American Health Security Act (HR 1200) last March. The bill, which has 40 cosponsors, would establish a national and universal health program that would be funded by the federal government and administered by the states (Psychiatric News, October 3).McDermott looked back to the 1960s when asked to consider the bill’s chances of passage. He said proposals for what would become the Medicare program had been “kicked around for a long time,” but had been defeated by forces that included strong opposition from the AMA and health insurance carriers.But ultimately, in 1965, McDermott said, pressure on politicians from constituents became too great to resist, and the legislation was passed.McDermott voted against the Medicare legislation that passed the House of Representatives on November 22, charging that its “real goal” is to privatize Medicare (see Original article: page 2).He added, “The bill is designed to protect and increase drug companies’ and insurance companies’ profits. The pharmaceutical industry will reap about $140 billion in profits if this becomes law. The bill explicitly prohibits the secretary of Health and Human Services from negotiating lower drug prices on behalf of America’s 40 million Medicare beneficiaries.”McDermott cited stigma and ignorance as factors that have prevented passage of federal legislation promoting parity in benefits for mental illness with those for other forms of illness.“The idea that one must pull oneself up by the bootstraps still has a lot of power,” he said. Unless people have had direct contact with mental illness, they often do not understand that it is a chronic, but treatable disease.“Get to know your local politicians. Become active in the community in visible ways,” McDermott urged APA members. “Education about mental illness must be a constant process.”He praised the work of APA in helping to establish the Mental Health Caucus in the House of Representatives, which has worked to provide that education. ▪ ISSUES NewArchived

Perennial Budget Reform Proposals: Budget Staff versus Elected Officials

This article defines budget reform perennials at the national level as those that reoccur multiple times, with little chance of passage and little change from one iteration to the next. The literature has seldom examined proposals that do not pass or the staff effort that goes into keeping flawed proposals from passing. The article describes the sources of such proposals and what can conceivably be done to lessen the tension they cause. The research is based primarily on qualitative interviews and legislative testimony. Examples of reform perennials include biennial and capital budgeting.

Support for the National Science Education Act

In the ScienceScope item “Late hit” (26 May, p. 1313), the chances of passage of Representative Vernon Ehlers's (R-MI) bill, H.R. 4271, the National Science Education Act, are described as “slim.” But such a description is contrary to what the American Association of Engineering Societies (

Democracy at Rest: Strategic Ratification of the Twenty-First Amendment

The Prohibition (Eighteenth, 1919) and repeal (Twenty-First, 1933) amendments, which represent the only case of a later amendment directly reversing an earlier one, were ratified by the two different methods allowed by Article V of the United States Constitution: the former by state legislatures, the latter by state conventions. This essay examines the legislatures-or-conventions dichotomy as a microcosm of William Riker's treatment of liberalism and populism, with specific attention paid to the state conventions that ratified repeal. Using previously uncollected county data from the special elections to choose the 1933 convention delegates, this study demonstrates that invocation of the convention method was strategic, and intended not only to legitimate the Twenty-First Amendment but also to improve its chances of passage.