Chance Of Outbreak Research Articles

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding the leishmaniases among inhabitants from a Paraguayan district in the border area between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay

Leishmaniasis is caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania sp. that differ in their geographical distribution, hosts, and vectors. Knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of the population are important to understand their relation to the disease. The aim of this study was to characterize KAP with regard to the leishmaniases in inhabitants of the triple border area Argentina–Brazil–Paraguay in specific neighborhoods where infected dogs were found and phlebotomine were captured, identifying a transmission focus. This is an observational, descriptive design based on a quantitative transversal survey. Sixty-two surveys were applied in homes located in areas at risk. Surveys were carried out in households in the San Francisco and Santa Rosa neighborhoods where the presence of infected reservoirs (dogs) was confirmed and Lu. longipalpis had been previously identified and captured. Seventy-one percent of respondents stated that they had heard about the disease. Knowledge about types, mode of transmission, and symptoms of the disease was rare. Attitudes and practices were closely related to pet dogs, and confusion between human and canine cases was noticed. There was a major flaw in the public services responsible for the transfer of knowledge to the population. These results suggest the necessity of conducting an educational intervention in these vulnerable populations, to improve conditions for prevention and control of leishmaniasis in the triple border where the flux of people is very intense and the chances of outbreaks are currently very high.

Assessment of Known Risk Factors for Dengue Transmission in Haraincha Village Development Committee of Eastern Nepal

Introduction Currently dengue is a worldwide public health problem. Almost half of world's populations are at risk of dengue. The first case was reported from Nepal in 2004, since then major outbreaks occurred in the year 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2013. As Jhapa district had outbreak in 2012 and 2013, there is a high chance of outbreak in Morang district also. There might be presence of many known risk factor for dengue transmission at Haraincha Village Development Committee (VDC).Objective To assess the known risk factor associated with dengue transmission in Haraincha Village Development Committee of Morang district of Eastern Nepal.Methodology Community based cross-sectional study was conducted from th th 15 October 2013 to 30 November 2013 in Haraincha VDC of Morang district. The data was collected from 122 households by means of interview using a semi structured questionnaires and direct observation after taking informed consent. We observed the known risk factor of possible dengue transmission. Data were entered into Microsoft excel and analyzed by using SPSS.Results The mean age of the respondent was 38 years with male predominance (61.5%). Only 7.4% were illiterate. The major occupation was agriculture (45.9%). Fifty four percent were above the poverty line. Two percent had history of dengue contracted outside the country. Common risk factors observed were poor drainage system (79%), poor natural light (75%), paddy field nearby household (51%), water filled open containers (44%), big plant near household (31%) and flower vases (26%) etc.Conclusion The known risk factors for dengue transmission were present in Haraincha Village Development Committee.Birat Journal of Health Sciences 2016 1(1): 3-7

The effectiveness of mass vaccination on Marek's disease virus (MDV) outbreaks and detection within a broiler barn: A modeling study

Marek's disease virus (MDV), a poultry pathogen, has been increasing in virulence since the mid twentieth century. Since multiple vaccines have been developed and widely implemented, losses due to MDV have decreased. However, vaccine failure has occurred in the past and vaccine breakthroughs remain a problem. Failure of disease control with current vaccines would have significant economic and welfare consequences. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of the disease during a farm outbreak is not well understood. Here we present a mathematical model to predict the effectiveness of vaccines to reduce the outbreak probability and disease burden within a barn. We find that the chance of an outbreak within a barn increases with the virulence of an MDV strain, and is significantly reduced when the flock is vaccinated, especially when there the contaminant strain is of low virulence. With low quantities of contaminated dust, there is nearly a 100% effectiveness of vaccines to reduce MDV outbreaks. However, the vaccine effectiveness drops to zero with an increased amount of contamination with a middle virulence MDV strain. We predict that the larger the barn, and the more virulent the MDV strain is, the more virus is produced by the time the flock is slaughtered. With the low-to-moderate virulence of the strains studied here, the number of deaths due to MDV is very low compared to all-cause mortality regardless of the vaccination status of the birds. However, the cumulative MD incidence can reach 100% for unvaccinated cohorts, and 35% for vaccinated cohorts. These results suggest that death due to MDV is an insufficient metric to assess the prevalence of MDV broiler barns regardless of vaccine status, such that active surveillance is required to successfully assess the probability of MDV outbreaks, and to limit transmission of MDV between successive cohorts of broiler chickens.

CONDITIONING IN AN ORGANIC GREENHOUSE

Organic growers in the Netherlands have to cope with ambitious goals for the emission of CO2, which in practice requires that less fossil fuel is used for heating. With conditioning, the greenhouse air can be cooled and/or dehumidificated mechanically, so that excess summer heat is collected and can be stored in aquifers for reuse with the help of a heat pump in winter. The required energy can be provided through green electricity instead of fossil fuel for heating. Experiences with closed greenhouses have shown that mechanical cooling lowers the need for ventilation, thereby decreasing the CO2 emission and pest pressure. In addition, conditioning can give a more balanced indoor climate and allows for a better management of humidity, which greatly reduces the chance of outbreak of Botrytis and similar diseases. Wageningen UR Greenhouse Horticulture is carrying out a dedicated research with an organic grower who operates a conditioned greenhouse. In this project, the main objective is to find out in what way the advantages of cooling are helpful, or can be improved for organic production, in view of the very strict requirements about application of plant protection chemicals. Conditioning an organic greenhouse may give higher yield and a better control of diseases and insects, but not enough references are available to give a significant comparison.