CFA Zone Research Articles

Research on Summer Hourly Climate-Influencing Factors in Suburban Areas of Cities in CFA Zone—Taking Chengdu, China as an Example

Research on Summer Hourly Climate-Influencing Factors in Suburban Areas of Cities in CFA Zone—Taking Chengdu, China as an Example

Genetic Structure of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus Populations in Russia.

Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus was found for the first time in 2011 on the Black Sea coast in Russia, and during 2011-2019, the species expanded over two climate zones Cfa and Csa. Here, we studied the sequence diversity of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene, 1317-1433bp in length. In total, 131 specimens of Ae. albopictus sampled from 21 locations in Russia and Abkhazia were examined. Two of the six identified mitochondrial haplotypes were detected for the first time. Four COI haplotypes were shared by at least two studied local populations. The most prevalent H1 and H2 haplotypes dominated in all the sampled localities in the Cfa zone. The H3 haplotype was prevalent in the Csa zone. Other haplotypes were rare. Phylogenetic analyses, spatial isolation and limited gene flow revealed that the samples from the Csa zone differed significantly from those from the Cfa zone. Two spatially isolated genetic lineages exist in Ae. albopictus population in southern region of Russia. One lineage obtained on the seacoast and inland (in valleys of the Caucasus Mountains and steppe zone) is widely distributed worldwide including Mediterranean populations. This confirms the hypothesis that the emergence of Ae. albopictus population in southern region of Russia may be associated with the terrestrial spread of mosquitoes from the well-established European population due to human activity. The other lineage, discovered in Novorossiysk, a maritime port, is similar to Ae. albopictus from the USA and Japan, suggesting the independent introduction of these mosquitoes.

The impact of fiscal rules on government debt: evidence from the CFA zone

The impact of fiscal rules on government debt: evidence from the CFA zone

ВОЕННОЕ ПРИСУТСТВИЕ ФРАНЦИИ В МАЛИ: СТРУКТУРНАЯ ВЛАСТЬ СУБИМПЕРИИ «КОЛЛЕКТИВНОГО ЗАПАДА»

The French military presence in Mali is considered in the context of other instruments of the first-level structural power (according to Suzan Strange) - in the fields of economics and law (OHADA), finance (CFA zone), distribution of knowledge (France 24 and TV5 Monde). It is shown that the former metropolitan power itself acts as a sub-empire of the «collective West» led by the United States with its own zone of influence (French-speaking African countries), and its potential is complemented by Western structural power (NATO, OECD, Bretton Woods Institutions, etc.). However, it is the military factor, including regular operations in Africa, that acts as the most important tool of French influence on the continent. The article examines the system of bilateral agreements in the military sphere between France and Mali, but the focus is on the current stage of development of the situation in the Sahel: the events after the overthrow of M. Gaddafi, when jihadist activity intensified in the region, in response to which the French operations Serval and Barkhane were launched. The phenomenon of France's «situational multilateralism» in the field of security and peacekeeping is being investigated, when the UN forces (MINUSMA), the EU forces (EUTM Mali, EUCAP Sahel, Takuba) and local actors (G5 Sahel) become its partners in the implementation of operations depending on the situation. At the first stage of the intervention, France and its partners managed to somewhat stabilize the situation, but the further build-up of the military component did not lead to a clear improvement in the situation. In the current circumstances, the military leadership of Mali has bet on the withdrawal of France from the country and on the search for new security allies, primarily Russian assistance. At the same time, other instruments of French structural power remain in place.

Estimating Terrestrial Radiation for Human Thermal Comfort in Outdoor Urban Space

Cities inadvertently create warmer and drier urban climate conditions than their surrounding areas through urbanization that replaces natural surfaces with impervious materials. These changes cause heat-related health problems and many studies suggest microclimatic urban design (MUD) as an approach to address these problems. In MUD-related research, although terrestrial radiation plays an important role in human thermal comfort and previous studies use thermal comfort models to identify human heat stress, few studies have addressed the effect of terrestrial radiation. This study develops the ground ratio factor (GRF) model to estimate the different terrestrial radiation according to different ground conditions. Three types of ground materials (asphalt, concrete, and grass) were considered in the model, and field studies were conducted in humid subtropical climate (Cfa) zone during the hot season (13 July to 19 September 2020). The model was validated by comparing the predicated terrestrial radiation (PTR) from the model with the actual terrestrial radiation (ATR). The results showed that there is a statistically significant strong correlation between PTR and ATR. The model can contribute to MUD strategies by updating existing human energy budget models, which can lead to the measurement of more accurate human thermal comfort for mitigating thermal environments.

Central bank independence, fiscal deficits and currency union: Lessons from Africa

Can central bank independence (CBI) help to reduce fiscal balances? In this paper, we answer this question using novel measures of CBI based on the turnover rate of central bank governors (TOR) and the Garriga measure of legal independence for 30 African countries for the period 1990–2017. Our novel measures of CBI capture the degree of alliance between the fiscal authority and the monetary authority which can potentially lead to debt monetization and higher fiscal balances. Thus, we classify central bank governor changes into ally changes or non-ally changes; in addition to that, we decompose our full sample into CFA zone countries and non-CFA zone countries to capture the effect of currency union membership. Our results show that for CFA zone countries, central bank autonomy, when proxied by the turnover rate of central bank governors, is associated with a decrease in fiscal balances and replacing a central banker with a non-ally, is negatively and significantly associated with fiscal balances.

Projection of future extreme precipitation in Iran based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

Extreme precipitation is the leading cause of the flood, soil erosion, and drought with significant socioeconomic impacts on human resources. Therefore, projecting future precipitation changes, especially the intensity of extreme precipitation (IEP) in the future, is very important. This study’s main objective is IEP projection in Iran based on CMIP6 bias-correction (BC) multi-model ensemble (MME). The daily precipitation data of five CMIP6 BC models with 0.5 horizontal resolution was used under three shared socioeconomic pathways; SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Simple Daily Intensity (SDII) and maximum consecutive 1-day precipitation (RX1day) were used to measure IEP changes. Two Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE) and percent bias (PBIAS) methods evaluate the performance of the models, and the independence weighted mean (IWM) method was applied for ensemble averaging. Among the studied CMIP6 bias-correction models, the IPSL-CM6A-LR model has more underestimation than other models with a KGE score of 0.751 has the lowest performance and the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model (0.768) showed the highest performance. In general, the study results showed the uncertainties in CMIP6 models for precipitation, according to which no single model is reliable even in the BC method. The PBIAS in the region affected by Asian summer monsoon (ASM) in Iran is about 10%, based on which the bias of the mentioned models for monsoon precipitation is high. SDII and RX1day anomalies in all climatic zones of Iran except for the RX1day index in Cfa climatic zones in other zones and scenarios during the two periods 2021-2060 and 2061-2100 are positive. Also, the trend and slope of the IEP are increasing in all zones except for BWh, BWk, and Cfa zones for SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Investigation of trend IEP changes showed that the maximum of these changes will occur in the BWh climate zone, and the minimum would occur in the cold and mountainous climate zone of Iran (Dsc).

Political influence, central bank independence and inflation in Africa: A comparative analysis

This paper develops a new de facto measure of central bank independence (CBI) based on two recent measures of the turnover rates of central bank governors introduced by Vuletin and Zhu (2011), complemented with measures of alliance with the government in power, captured by prior executive appointment, tribe proximity, and political party affiliation. Using 1980–2009 data from 13 countries from the CFA zone (a currency union) and 18 non-CFA countries, the new index is used to 1) examine whether CBI can help achieve price stability in Africa and 2) show how CBI affects African countries that are part of a monetary union. We find that higher turnover rates lead to higher inflation. Our results are robust to the decomposition of the turnover rates into premature removals and ally replacements. Furthermore, we find that for CFA zone countries, central bank autonomy has no effect on inflation and instead inflation is driven by other variables such as the fixed exchange rate regime or commodity price shocks.

Did Mali benefit from joining the CFA zone? An analysis using the synthetic control method

AbstractThis article examines the benefits of CFA zone membership by estimating the effects of joining the CFA zone on short‐run business cycle indicators such as income per capita and inflation as well as long‐term economic indicators such as trade relations with France and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mali. Using the synthetic control method, we show that Mali’s CFA membership has a positive effect on its income, inflation, and FDI but no discernible effect on trade relations with France. We conclude that joining the CFA zone can generate potential economic gains for countries seeking membership by fostering growth and providing price stability but does not necessarily increase trade relations with France even though the CFA is a former French colonial currency.

External Dependence of the African Franc CFA zone. Empirical Investigations on Money Supply Process

The objective of this paper is to study the operating mechanisms of the issuing institutions in CFA area and the different sources of money creation. Our approach consists in studying, respectively the automatic or discretionary nature of monetary policies, through the establishment of non-neutralization/non-sterilization monetary indices (index); and in a second step we test, using co-integration models, the evolution of monetary base in relation of Net External Asset (NFA) and in relation to the evolution of Net Domestic Assets. Our results mainly indicate the existence of a preponderance of the external sector or NFA over the evolution of the monetary base or money supply, compared to the domestic sector. In addition, we observe an automatic adjustment in both WAEMU and CEMAC over the long term. But the return to equilibrium is slower in WAEMU due to a mix of automation and discretion. On the other hand, in CEMAC, the return to equilibrium is almost automatic with a strong dependence on the external sector.

A new currency for West African states: the theoretical and political conditions of its feasibility

Recent developments in the monetary situation in West Africa, in particular the transformation for the CFA franc area and the project to build a single currency for the CEDEAO/ECOWAS, require a systematic review of the assumptions underlying the formation of monetary unions. The article provides a critical review of the traditional theoretical foundations of optimal currency areas (OCAs) and their subsequent amendments, in light of the problems that emerged in the most relevant monetary unions. On specific points, a comparison is made between the eurozone and the CFA zone. The article then investigates the specific characteristics of the monetary area affected by the reform project, and finally it indicates the main lines along which the project of a common currency to all the states that currently make up the CEDEAO/ECOWAS could evolve, identifying four possible alternative roadmaps. JEL codes : F33, F53, F45

Measure of Macroeconomics of CFA Zone Countries Compare to SSA Countries

The research is financed by the school of finance and economics of Jiangsu University (+86 511 8878 0011) Abstract The influence of services activity in the economic development regarding the macroeconomics tactics and application. We investigate the sources of macroeconomics fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries with particular attention to the development growth, federal investment, gross national income and consumer price with a structural Vector Auto regression (VAR) model with limited capital mobility and long run restrictions to identify the shocks. The research data analyzed by Linear square, in the first step data has been manipulated by level of stationary in first root and then with unit root individually classify the regions distribution with each expects to estimation development and confirm that even though the development techniques by individual development of SSA. However, terms of growth intention and development tend to influence the CFA zone to a greater extent and there seems to be a higher influence of demand shocks on output and the federal investment and consumer prices in the non-CFA countries. Supply and terms of trade shocks tend to dominate output movements in the CFA and non-CFA countries alike. Keywords: Economic development; SSA and CFA; macroeconomics DOI: 10.7176/RJFA/11-4-11 Publication date: February 29 th 2020

Persistent Inequality in Guinea-Bissau: The Role of France, the CFA Franc, and Long-Term Currency Imperialism

Guinea-Bissau is among the world’s most unequal countries. Its use of the CFA currency, pegged to the euro and controlled by France, raises continuing concern . This paper investigates the impact of joining the C.F.A zone (1997) on Guinea-Bissau per capita GDP, fisheries capture, and rice yields. In the absence of randomization, we apply a synthetic control method SCM (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003) to build a counterfactual using a weighted combination of potential countries as control units and estimate the effects of entering the CFA zone on economic growth. The SCM results for Guinea-Bissau suggested that joining the CFA union contributed substantially to the decline of per capita GDP, fisheries capture, and rice yields. Other economic indicators such as cotton seed net per capita production and cashew nuts yields included in our study were inconclusive. Overall, Guinea-Bissau did not show evidence of economic growth after it entered the Franc zone. The country has been in long-term decline since then.

The Effects of Foreign Direct Investments on Industrialization: A Comparative Approach between the Franc and the Non-Franc Zone

The aim of this paper is to contribute to literature by showing explicitly the direct and the indirect effect of foreign direct investment on industrialization by comparing the franc and the non-franc zone countries in Africa. Our empirical evidence has made use of data from 12 countries of the franc zone and 11 countries of the non CFA zone making a total of 23 African countries spanning from 1990-2017. After carrying out preliminary test to permit us choose the appropriate method, we employed the Pooled Mean Group estimation technique for both groups of countries, which is appropriate for drawing conclusions from dynamic heterogeneous panels by considering long-run equilibrium relation. The results show that FDI has a significant positive effect on industrialization within the franc zone countries mean while it has a negative but significant effect on industrialization within the non-zone franc countries. In other words, the results reveal that within the franc zone, industrialization is more favored when compared to the non-franc zone countries. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

Comparative study on economic performance within the 2 area of the CFA zone

Comparative study on economic performance within the 2 area of the CFA zone

Monetary Union, Competitiveness and Raw Commodity Dependence: Insights from Africa

This paper investigates macroeconomic interactions in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, and more specifically, in the franc CFA zone. The CFA monetary zone is a unique case study because it is the only one that uses a common currency pegged to another currency, namely the euro. Additionally, the SSA region is heavily dependent on raw commodities. How monetary policy constraints affect trade, competitiveness and growth level of commodity-dependent economies? We estimate a Panel Vector Auto-Regressive model using four key macroeconomic variables: growth, current account, real exchange rate, foreign direct investment and the terms of trade. The analysis relies on a sample of 25 SSA countries including 14 belonging to the CFA zone. Two key results emerge from our analysis. First, the results show that foreign investments in CFA countries fail to generate the same positive spillover effects in the extra-CFA countries, highlighting the adverse effect of capital flight. Secondly, this paper shows that the Marshall–Lerner condition is not verified in the CFA context. As a consequence, nominal devaluation could not be used to stimulate the CFA trade balance. In terms of public policy, the most efficient ways to address the challenges generated by raw commodity dependence are through the close monitoring of foreign inbound investments, as well as complimentary domestic investments dedicated to sectors contributing to diversification and long-term growth.

Is regional integration in the CFA zone sustainable?

ABSTRACTThis article aims to study the long-term sustainability of regional integration in the (Communauté Financière Africaine) CFA zone, based on the theory of the endogeneity of monetary zones. To this end, we consider trade and intra-CFA migration as the two quantitative vectors of regional integration. Using robust estimation techniques to overcome the endogeneity bias, our results show that integration in the CFA zone is moderately sustainable. More precisely, while the monetary unions of the CFA zone, in particular that of the WAEMU, contribute to reinforcing the intra-regional mobility of goods and people, they fail to induce strong synchronization of the macroeconomic cycles.

Funkcjonowanie strefy franka CFA – wstęp do krytycznej analizy

The CFA franc zone is a unique, on a worldwide scale, example of integration group based on monetary and economic cooperation, linking diverse countries which have one common feature – namely they were integral part of the French colonial empire. The CFA franc zone should contribute to economic growth and monetary and financial stability of the member states. The national economies are characterized by numerous structural and institutional weaknesses. The majority of franc CFA zone countries belong to the group of the poorest and the least developed states of the world. In the case of inflation, the countries were able to keep inflation within the convergence criteria limit, and they are characterized by the large cohesion in inflations rates, the countries differ significantly in terms of GDP growth and current account balance deficit. Moreover, WAEMU and CAEMC – the two unions within the CFA franc zone – are characterized by: low diversification of production and export structures, low proportion of intra-regional trade, low labour mobility, weak financial markets integration and lack of common fiscal policy.

Did Mali Benefit from Joining the CFA Zone? An Analysis Using the Synthetic Control Method.

This article examines the benefits of CFA zone’s membership by estimating the effects of joining the CFA zone on GDP per capita and other macroeconomic fundamentals in Mali. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), we show that Mali’s CFA membership has a positive effect on its income, inflation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) but no discernible effect on its trade with France. We conclude that joining the CFA zone can generate potential economic gains for countries seeking membership by fostering growth and providing price stability but does not necessarily increase trade relations with France even though the CFA is a former French colonial currency.

Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system

AbstractThis paper analyzes the link between the exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system focusing on the former French colonies of Africa (the CFA zone). Having discussed and chosen an appropriate analytical framework, it addresses the issue of model uncertainty regarding the equilibrium exchange rate model before estimating currency misalignments. The results show that misalignments have a negative and asymmetric impact on the current account. While overvaluation of the CFA franc deteriorates the current account, undervaluation does not improve it. Finally, our results highlight that the export concentration tends to exacerbate the overall negative impact of currency misalignments.