Central Tropical Indian Ocean Research Articles

Suppressive MJO in April 2014 Downgraded the 2014/15 El Niño

Abstract The sudden halting of the extreme 2014/15 El Niño expected by many was attributed to the absence of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in late spring and early summer 2014 in previous works, yet the cause of the lack of WWBs was overlooked. Using the ERA5 reanalysis and IBTrACS dataset, as well as a set of coupled model experiments, we showed that the absence of WWBs in May efficiently downgraded the intensity of the 2014/15 El Niño from a moderate to a weak event and was closely associated with a strong suppressive MJO originating from the central tropical Indian Ocean in mid-April 2014. The suppressive MJO underwent two pathways once passing through the Maritime Continent in early May. Along the eastward pathway, the strong suppressive MJO prevailed over the western–central equatorial Pacific, directly prohibiting the occurrence of WWBs at the equator via inducing equatorial easterly anomaly. Along the northeastward pathway, the downward motions with relative dry air and strong vertical zonal wind shear associated with the suppressive MJO suppressed the activity of the tropical cyclones in the northwestern tropical Pacific, another source of WWBs. Our results indicate that the contributions of MJO to the development of El Niño from both the direct and indirect ways should be taken into account for improving El Niño prediction.

Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Biomass Revealed by Satellite and BGC‐Argo Data in the Central Tropical Indian Ocean

AbstractThe variability of phytoplankton biomass related to ocean's biological carbon pump in the central tropical Indian Ocean is not fully understood. Using satellite and biogeochemical Argo data, we found that phytoplankton biomass exhibits significantly different and even opposite changes at the near‐surface (0–10 m) and subsurface layer (50–100 m). Results showed that the shoaling/deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline dominated the phytoplankton biomass change in different layers. In February–May, the shallow mixed‐layer depth (MLD) exacerbated the oligotrophic environment in the mixed layer, thus resulting in low near‐surface phytoplankton biomass (Chl a < 0.1 mg m−3). However, strengthened wind stress and surface cooling induced deep vertical mixing (MLD > 50 m), hence increasing the supply of both nutrients and phytoplankton from the subsurface to maintain the near‐surface phytoplankton blooms (Chl a > 0.2 mg m−3) in June–October. Below the mixed layer, wind‐induced upwelling/downwelling modulated the thermocline, which significantly affects the supply of nutrients for phytoplankton growth in the subsurface layer. The shallower thermocline during February and March provided favorable conditions for the subsurface blooms (Chl a > 0.5 mg m−3) with a prominent subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer (SCML). Conversely, the deeper thermocline in June and July was related to the lowest phytoplankton biomass with the disappearance of the SCML. These results may help explain the response of vertical phytoplankton to changes driven by multiple atmospheric and physical forcing factors in future climate‐change scenarios.

Either IOD leading or ENSO leading triggers extreme thermohaline events in the central tropical Indian Ocean

Either IOD leading or ENSO leading triggers extreme thermohaline events in the central tropical Indian Ocean

Influence of climate variability on wind‐sea and swell wave height extreme over the Indo‐Pacific Ocean

AbstractIn the Indo‐Pacific Ocean (IPO), extreme significant wave heights (SWHs) can substantially induce coastal erosion, flooding, and devastating impacts on coastal livelihoods. This study examines the seasonal influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and Pacific North American (PNA) pattern on extreme wind‐wave parameters. The climatic extremes are calculated utilizing ERA5 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2019 and a nonstationary generalized extreme value distribution. Significant increases in extreme wind‐sea (Hmax) and swell SWH (HmaxSw) response to ENSO occur over the northeast North Pacific (NP) during December–February (DJF) and western NP during June–August (JJA). The PNA influence exhibits a similar pattern to ENSO during DJF yet is inactive in JJA. Hmax and HmaxSw responses to the IOD during September–November (SON) include significant increases over the western Pacific, southern Indian Ocean (IO), and southwest tropical IO, yet decreases over the central tropical IO. The HmaxSw response to the SAM is larger than that for Hmax over the southern IPO during DJF, which extends toward the eastern Pacific in March–May (MAM). Overall, extreme wind‐sea and swell parameter responses are found to be associated with sea level pressure (SLP) and SLP gradients.

Modulation of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of South Asian High and Somali Jet in Summer

As two important components of the Asian summer monsoon system, the intensities of South Asian High (SAH) and Somali jet (SMJ) in summer exhibit both interannual and decadal variabilities. On the interdecadal timescale, the temporal evolution of the SAH intensity is in phase with that of the SMJ intensity. By comparison, we find that both of them evolve synchronously with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with AMO cold/warm phases corresponding to the weakening/strengthening of SAH and SMJ. Further diagnoses indicate that the interdecadal variabilities of the SAH and SMJ intensities in summer may be modulated by the AMO phase. Mechanistically, this modulation appears to be achieved via an interdecadal Silk Road pattern (SRP)-like wave train along the Asian westerly jet and Matsuno–Gill tropical atmospheric response. The cold SST anomaly over extratropical North Atlantic related to the AMO firstly induces an anomalous high over Western Europe and produces a well-organized wave train between 30°N and 60°N. The anomalous Iranian Plateau low along with the wave train path leads to a weakened SAH. Besides, the AMO-related cold SST anomalies over tropical North Atlantic cool the tropical tropospheric atmosphere through the moist adjustment process and produce a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response covering the tropical Indian Ocean. Due to the Matsuno–Gill response, subsidence motion anomalies over the central tropical Indian Ocean corresponding to a result in increased lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence are excited over the tropical Indian Ocean. Finally, the tropical Indian Ocean divergence in the lower troposphere leads to the weakened summer SMJ, and the tropical Indian Ocean convergence in the upper troposphere results in the decrease and northward displacement of SAH in summer.

Diurnal Ocean Surface Warming Drives Convective Turbulence and Clouds in the Atmosphere

AbstractSunlight warms sea surface temperature (SST) under calm winds, increasing atmospheric surface buoyancy flux, turbulence, and mixed layer (ML) depth in the afternoon. The diurnal range of SST exceeded 1°C for 24% of days in the central tropical Indian Ocean during the Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation experiment in October‐December 2011. Doppler lidar shows enhancement of the strength and height of convective turbulence in the atmospheric ML over warm SST in the afternoon. The turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate of the marine atmospheric ML scales with surface buoyancy flux like previous measurements of convective MLs. The time of enhanced ML TKE dissipation rate is out of phase with the buoyancy flux generated by nocturnal net radiative cooling of the atmosphere. Diurnal atmospheric convective turbulence over the ocean mixes moisture from the ocean to the lifting condensation level and forms afternoon clouds.

Distinct Mechanisms of Decadal Subsurface Heat Content Variations in the Eastern and Western Indian Ocean Modulated by Tropical Pacific SST

Decadal variability of the subsurface ocean heat content (OHC) in the Indian Ocean is investigated using a coupled climate model experiment, in which observed eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (EPSST) anomalies are specified. This study intends to understand the contributions of external forcing relative to those of internal variability associated with EPSST, as well as the mechanisms by which the Pacific impacts Indian Ocean OHC. Internally generated variations associated with EPSST dominate decadal variations in the subsurface Indian Ocean. Consistent with ocean reanalyses, the coupled model reproduces a pronounced east–west dipole structure in the southern tropical Indian Ocean and discontinuities in westward-propagating signals in the central Indian Ocean around 100°E. This implies distinct mechanisms by which the Pacific impacts the eastern and western Indian Ocean on decadal time scales. Decadal variations of OHC in the eastern Indian Ocean are attributed to 1) western Pacific surface wind anomalies, which trigger oceanic Rossby waves propagating westward through the Indonesian Seas and influence Indonesian Throughflow transport, and 2) zonal wind anomalies over the central tropical Indian Ocean, which trigger eastward-propagating Kelvin waves. Decadal variations of OHC in the western Indian Ocean are linked to conditions in the Pacific via changes in the atmospheric Walker cell, which trigger anomalous wind stress curl and Ekman pumping in the central tropical Indian Ocean. Westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves extend the influence of this anomalous Ekman pumping to the western Indian Ocean.

Joint Impacts of SSTA in Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on Variations of the WPSH

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and HadISST sea surface temperature (SST) data, the joint effects of the tropi-cal Indian Ocean and Pacific on variations of area of the summertime western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) for period 1980–2016 are investigated. It is demonstrated that the central tropical Indian Ocean (CTI) and central equatorial Pacific (CEP) are two key oceanic regions that affect the summertime WPSH. During autumn and winter, warm SST anomalies (SSTAs) in CEP force the Walker circulation to change anomalously, resulting in divergence anomalies over the western Pacific and Maritime Continent (MC). Due to the Gill-type response, the abnormal anticyclonic circulation is generated over the western Pacific and South China Sea (SCS). In the subsequent spring, the warm SSTAs in CEP weaken, while the SST over CTI demonstrates a lagged response to Pacific SSTA. The warm CTI-SSTA and CEP-SSTA cooperate with the eastward propagation of cold Kelvin waves in the western Pacific, leading to the eastward shift of the abnormal divergence center that originally locates at the western Pacific and MC. The anticyclone forced by this divergence subsequently moves eastward, leading to the intensification of the negative vorticity there. Meanwhile, warm SSTA in CTI triggers eastward propagating Kelvin waves, which lead to easterly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean and Indonesia, being favorable for maintenance and intensification of the anticyclone over the SCS and western Pacific. The monsoonal meridional–vertical circulation strengthens, which is favorable for the intensification of the WPSH. Using SSTA over the two key oceanic regions as predictors, a multiple regression model is successfully constructed for prediction of WPSH area. These results are useful for our better understanding the variation mechanisms of WPSH and better predicting summer climate in East Asia.

Low‐Frequency Variability and the Unusual Indian Ocean Dipole Events in 2015 and 2016

AbstractAn unusual positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event occurred in 2015 associated with the 2015/2016 extreme El Niño. Unlike the canonical IOD, sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the west central tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) dominated the strong zonal SST gradient as cooling off Sumatra‐Java was weak. Over the southeastern TIO, deeper thermocline has suppressed the upwelling cooling since 2012. Such deepened thermocline related to a low‐frequency adjustment and curtailed cool anomalies in the 2015 positive IOD but favored warm anomalies in the 2016 negative IOD. Based on statistical analyses, ocean assimilation data confirm that an IOD‐like pattern exists in the TIO on decadal timescale. During a negative decadal IOD‐like phase, thermocline is deeper in the southeastern TIO; the thermocline‐SST feedback is unfavorable for positive IOD occurrence and intensity, but conducive to negative IOD events. Thus, we propose that the 2015–2016 IOD events are modulated by the low‐frequency variability of thermocline.

Winter AO/NAO modifies summer ocean heat content and monsoonal circulation over the western Indian Ocean

This paper analyzes the possible influence of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/ NAO) on the Indian Ocean upper ocean heat content in summer as well as the summer monsoonal circulation. The strong interannual co-variation between winter 1000-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and summer ocean heat content in the uppermost 120 m over the tropical Indian Ocean was investigated by a singular decomposition analysis for the period 1979–2014. The second paired-modes explain 23.8% of the squared covariance, and reveal an AO/NAO pattern over the North Atlantic and a warming upper ocean in the western tropical Indian Ocean. The positive upper ocean heat content enhances evaporation and convection, and results in an anomalous meridional circulation with ascending motion over 5°S–5°N and descending over 15°–25°N. Correspondingly, in the lower troposphere, significantly anomalous northerly winds appear over the western Indian Ocean north of the equator, implying a weaker summer monsoon circulation. The off-equator oceanic Rossby wave plays a key role in linking the AO/NAO and the summer heat content anomalies. In boreal winter, a positive AO/NAO triggers a down-welling Rossby wave in the central tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric teleconnection. As the Rossby wave arrives in the western Indian Ocean in summer, it results in anomalous upper ocean heating near the equator mainly through the meridional advection. The AO/NAO-forced Rossby wave and the resultant upper ocean warming are well reproduced by an ocean circulation model. The winter AO/NAO could be a potential season-lead driver of the summer atmospheric circulation over the northwestern Indian Ocean.

Two flavors of the Indian Ocean Dipole

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is known as a climate mode in the tropical Indian Ocean accompanied by negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern (western) pole during its positive phase. However, the western pole of the IOD is not always covered totally by positive SST anomalies. For this reason, the IOD is further classified into two types in this study based on SST anomalies in the western pole. The first type (hereafter “canonical IOD”) is associated with negative (positive) SST anomalies in the eastern (central to western) tropical Indian Ocean. The second type (hereafter “IOD Modoki”), on the other hand, is associated with negative SST anomalies in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean and positive SST anomalies in the central tropical Indian Ocean. Based on composite analyses, it is found that easterly wind anomalies cover the whole equatorial Indian Ocean in the canonical IOD, and as a result, positive rainfall anomalies are observed over East Africa. Also, due to the basin-wide easterly wind anomalies, the canonical IOD is accompanied by strong sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. In contrast, zonal wind anomalies converge in the central tropical Indian Ocean in the IOD Modoki, and no significant precipitation anomalies are found over East Africa. Also, only weak SSH anomalies are seen, because equatorial downwelling anomalies induced by westerly wind anomalies in the west are counteracted by equatorial upwelling anomalies caused by easterly wind anomalies in the east.

Modulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the recent warming period

AbstractThe Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during the boreal summer has shown a significant warming of 0.3°C in the recent decade (2001–2010) compared to a former decade (1979–1988), and it is most pronounced in the central tropical Indian Ocean. By using reanalysis and satellite‐derived data sets, we investigated how the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) over the South Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region has been influenced by the recent warming in the Indian Ocean. It is found that the MISO variance has increased over the ASM region in the recent period compared with the earlier decade. It is also noted that the characteristic northward propagation of the MISO has slowed over 2001–2010, resembling more of a standing oscillation near the equator. Mechanisms implicated in the observed MISO changes are explored by conducting several model sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model experiments suggest that the mean SST increase over the Indian Ocean, and the associated changes in the air‐sea interaction, the increased mean moisture convergence, and changes in the large‐scale circulation are responsible for the changes in the characteristics of the MISO. The influence of the recent Indian Ocean warming on the MISO characteristics must be understood fully since they determine the seasonal amount of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. An examination of future projections of the MISO using the MPI‐ESM‐LR model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 archive also gives consistent result.

The self-organizing map, a new approach to apprehend the Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on the intraseasonal variability of rainfall in the southern African region

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major mode of intraseasonal variability (30–60 days) in the tropics, having large rainfall impacts globally, and possibly on southern Africa. However, the latter impact is not well understood and needs to be further explored. The life cycle of the MJO, known to be asymmetric, has been nevertheless analyzed usually through methods constrained by both linearity and orthogonality, such as empirical orthogonal function analysis. Here we explore a non-linear classification method, the self-organizing map (SOM), a type of artificial neural network used to produce a low-dimensional representation of high-dimensional datasets, to capture more accurately the life cycle of the MJO and its global impacts. The classification is applied on intraseasonal anomalies of outgoing longwave radiation within the tropical region over the 1980–2009 period. Using the SOM to describe the MJO is a new approach, complimentary to the usual real-time multivariate MJO index. It efficiently captures this propagative phenomenon and its seasonality, and is shown to provide additional temporal and spatial information on MJO activity. For each node, the subtropical convection is analyzed, with a particular focus on the southern Africa region. Results show that the convection activity over the central tropical Indian Ocean is a key factor influencing the intraseasonal convective activity over the southern African region. Enhanced (suppressed) convection over the central Indian Ocean tends to suppress (enhance) convection over the southern African region with a 10-day lag by modulating the moisture transport.

Surface Characteristics Observed over the Central Tropical Indian Ocean During Indoex IFP99

The present study is based on the observations carried out over the IndianOcean from the Indian research vessel ORV Sagar Kanya during the intensive field phase of the Indian Ocean Experiment in January–March 1999. The study area spanned from 15°N to 20°S in the central Indian Ocean. Near surface variations and surface fluxes along the cruise track are presented. A comparison of near surface characteristics over the Indian Ocean and tropical west Pacific has been made. It is observed that the average difference between the sea surface temperature and air temperature at 10 m height was 0.7 °C over the study area, nearly half of that observed over the tropical west Pacific. A comparison between observed and NCEP reanalysissurface data has been made. We find good agreement between ship measured andNCEP reanalysis surface pressure, specific humidity and wind fields.On the other hand, surface air temperature in the reanalysis tends to be lowcompared to observations. The components of the net surface heat flux comparebetter in the north Indian Ocean than in the southern Indian Ocean.

Pyloniid stratigraphy – a new tool to date tropical radiolarian ooze from the central tropical Indian Ocean

Pyloniid stratigraphy, a faunal abundance-variation stratigraphic tool, similar to Cycladophora davisiana stratigraphy employed at high latitudes, is found to work well for tropical radiolarian ooze. The relationship between the spatial distribution of 25 modern radiolarian groups in surface sediments and monsoonal surface salinity from the central Indian Ocean is analyzed. Among them, Pyloniids exhibit the potential to serve in the same way as the C. davisiana stratigraphy. Down-core (temporal) variation of % Pyloniids in a sediment core is compared with (i) the sum of the Earth’s orbital eccentricity, axial tilt and precession (ETP), (ii) solar insolation at the core site (8°S) and 65°N, and (iii) the SPECMAP-δ 18O stratigraphy. The multi-taper (MTM) spectral analysis of Pyloniids for the last 485 ka in a core (AAS 2/3) reveals significant climatic cycles at the eccentricity (100 ka), tilt (41 ka) and precession (23 ka) bands. Cross-spectral analyses suggest coherent (>90%) Pyloniid cycles lag both the ETP and June insolation (65°N) by <9 ka at 100-ka eccentricity and are almost (<2 ka) in-phase with 41-ka tilt and 23-ka precession cycles. Coherent Pyloniid cycles lag SPECMAP-δ 18O by 14 ka at 41-ka tilt and 6 ka at 23-ka precession, while they lag insolation at the core site by 7 ka at 100-ka, lead 18 ka at 41-ka and show in-phase relation with 23-ka cycles. Marginal lead of <10 ka by ETP and insolation over Pyloniids at 100-ka eccentricity and in-phase relation at 41-ka tilt and 23-ka precession cycles suggest Pyloniids variation could be used as a tool to derive age models in tropical radiolarian ooze during the Late Neogene/Quaternary.

The flow field of the subtropical gyre of the South Indian Ocean

The mean state of the transport field of the subtropical gyre of the South Indian Ocean has been derived for the upper 1000 m from selected historical hydrographic data. The subtropical gyre in the southwestern Indian Ocean is stronger than the flow in the other two oceans of the southern hemisphere. Most of the water in the South Indian gyre recirculates in the western and central parts of the basin. In the upper 1000 m the eastward transport of the South Indian Ocean Current starts with 60 Sv in the region southeast of South Africa. Between the longitudes of 40° and 50°E about 20 Sv of the 60 Sv recirculates in a southwest Indian subgyre. Another major diversion northward occurs between 60° and 70°E. At 90°E the remaining 20 Sv of the eastward flow splits up, 10 Sv going north to join the westward flow and only 10 Sv continuing in a northeastward direction to move northward near Australia. Near Australia, there is indication of the poleward flowing Leeuwin Current with a transport of 5 Sv. In the central tropical Indian Ocean between 10°S and 20°S, about 15 Sv flows to the west. The western boundary current of this subtropical gyre consists of the Agulhas Current along the east coast of southern Africa. Its mean flow is composed of 25 Sv from east of Madagascar and 35 Sv from recirculation in the southwest Indian subgyre south of Madagascar, with only 5 Sv being contributed from the Mozambique Channel. A net southward transport of 10 Sv results for the upper 1000 m of the South Indian Ocean. In contrast to the triangular shape of the subtropical gyre in the South Atlantic, probably caused by the cross‐equatorial flow into the North Atlantic, the area influenced by the subtropical gyre in the South Indian Ocean is more rectangular.

Tropical sea surface temperatures and the Earth's orbital eccentricity cycles

The tropical oceanic warm pools are climatologically important regions because their sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to atmospheric greenhouse effect and the cumulonimbus‐cirrus cloud anvil. Such a warm pool is also present in the central tropical Indian Ocean. Paleo‐SSTs estimated by the radiolarian transfer functions for the last ∼200–1400 kiloyears (ka) in a deep‐sea sediment core from this warm pool fluctuated within 2.75°C (26.14–28.89°C) around the threshold temperature (27 °C) for the super greenhouse effect. It is possible that this SST variation might have led to the corresponding fluctuation in the greenhouse effect and the cirrus cloud anvil in the geological past. These paleo‐SSTs also exhibited cyclicities at ∼100‐ and ∼400‐ka corresponding to the Earth's orbital eccentricity cycles. Results, therefore imply that the tropical Indian Ocean warm pool persisted during the Quaternary and the paleo‐SSTs fluctuating at the orbital eccentricity frequencies might have modulated the intensity of greenhouse effect.

Abundance and dynamics of microplankton in the central tropical Indian Ocean

Abundance and dynamics of microplankton in the central tropical Indian Ocean