Central Securities Depository Research Articles

PREDIKSI HARGA SAHAM BERDASARKAN ROA, ROE, PBV, DER, EPS DAN PER MENGGUNAKAN MACHINE LEARNING

Stocks are one of the popular investment instruments in Indonesia, but they also come with high risks. According to a report from PT Central Securities Depository Indonesia (KSEI) on November 21, 2022, the number of investors in the Indonesian capital market has reached 10 million people, followed by 9.3 million mutual fund investors and 803 thousand investors in government securities. Therefore, a method is needed to accurately predict stock prices. This research aims to apply a Machine Learning method based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to predict stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using financial ratio variables as features. The study uses stock data on the IDX from the Kompas100 stock index from 2008 to 2022. The data is then converted, cleaned, and divided into training and testing data. The model is trained with the training data and tested with the testing data. To measure the model's performance, this research uses the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metric. The study finds that the best-performing model produces an RMSE of 14.08. Additionally, the research also discovers that the best combination of financial ratio variables for the machine learning model includes ROA, ROE, PBV, DER, EPS, and PER, compared to combinations such as EPS, ROE, PER, and DER, or ROA, ROE, EPS, and PBV. In conclusion, this study suggests that the Machine Learning method based on RNN can be used to predict stock prices on the IDX using financial ratio variables as features.

Analysis of optimal portfolio formation using the single index model approach on Bisnis-27 index shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2018-2022 period

Based on data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI), the number of investors in the Indonesian stock market is increasing, indicating the popularity of stocks as an investment instrument. This study aims to examine the returns and risks of stocks in the optimal portfolio, compared to those not under the optimal portfolio, using the Single Index Model. Secondary data from the Bisnis-27 index were used for the analysis. The results show that returns differ significantly between stocks in the optimal portfolio and those that are not. However, these risks were found to be insignificant. The determination of the optimal portfolio in this study can be used as a reference by investors when making investment decisions.

The Influence of Representativeness Bias, Optimism Bias and Loss Aversion on Stock Investment Decision Making among Investors in Pontianak City

The study investigates the impact of representativeness bias, optimism bias, and loss aversion on stock investment decision-making among investors in Pontianak City. Using data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository and other sources, the research explores the trends and behaviors of investors in the capital market. Through multiple linear regression analysis, the study finds significant correlations between these cognitive biases and investment decisions. The results suggest that while representativeness bias and optimism bias do not individually influence investment decisions, loss aversion has a significant impact. The research contributes to understanding the psychological factors affecting investment behavior in the stock market.

KEPASTIAN HUKUM DALAM PENERAPAN PLATFORM E-VOTING PADA RAPAT UMUM PEMEGANG SAHAM (RUPS) PERSEROAN TERBATAS YANG DILAKSANAKAN MELALUI TELEKONFERENSI.

Limited Liability Companies that have implemented the use of teleconferencing in the GMS decision making mechanism. Apart from being able to be held via teleconference media directly, GMS participants can also use the e-RUPS platform for decision making, both those who attend physically and those who attend using the teleconference media. The implementation of the use of the e-GMS platform in GMS, especially in Closed PTs, whether all GMS participants can attend it physically or there are GMS participants who attend via teleconferencing media is interesting to research because it is in Article 77 of the PT UUPT. The method used in this research is normative juridical legal research, which was carried out as an effort to obtain the necessary data regarding the problem. The data used is primary data as supporting legal material for secondary data. Data analysis was carried out using qualitative analysis methods. From the results of the research, the implementation of a teleconference GMS (zoom meeting) via electronic means still requires prior summons to Shareholders by registered letter. The summons is made no later than 14 (fourteen) days before the date the GMS is held and the teleconference GMS remains valid in the form of a deed of reassurance but must comply with The legal requirements for a GMS in a closed PT can be carried out as long as each meeting procedure and mechanism can be legally accounted for by holding the GMS via Zoom Meeting. The suggestion is to immediately create a media platform for the implementation of Teleconferencing/Video Conference GMS intended for closed Limited Liability Companies as per the Platform issued by the Indonesian Central Securities Depository for Public Limited Liability Company GMS, implementation through a certain system using a digital system must have a sustainable mechanism. to maintain novelty, clarity and responsibility. Immediately the Ministry of Law and Human Rights together with the DPR and related parties will make regulations regarding procedures for holding GMS by Teleconference/Video conference for Closed Limited Liability Companies so that legal certainty is guaranteed for the parties, and create a media platform for holding GMS that meets special standards for GMS

Some aspects of shares accounting legal regulation for limited liability company members

The article deals with the provisions regarding the accounting of company shares in the shares accounting system of limited liability companies as well as of companies with additional liability. This legal institute is brand new in the law system of Ukraine. The purpose of this legal institute is to introduce European standards for corporate governance in limited liability companies (as in companies with additional liability also) as well as to provide additional protection guarantees for rights and legitimate interests of corporate rights owners in companies.
 The provisions of the legislation regarding the accounting of company shares in the accounting system of limited liability companies shares have an alternative nature, however, the final decision remains with the participants of a certain limited liability company, since the implemented system of accounting for limited liability company shares is similar to the current system of depository accounting of securities, but it will be applied in a voluntary manner by the unanimous decision of the certain company members, if the expediency of such accounting shares and compliance with the rights of participants in corporate legal relations in the context of limited liability companies activities will be proved for the members of the company.
 As of today, the question remains unanswered as to which version of accounting for shares will be preferred by certain limited liability company participants, taking into account the lack of practice need for applying relevant legal norms, in particular, the practice of applying norms by the Supreme Court and other courts, which should be formed after 01.01.2024.
 The Central Securities Depository protection of corporate rights against illegal acquisition by third parties (raiding) is determined by the advantages of shares accounting for limited liability company participants. The ability to clearly determine the moment of acquisition of limited liability company participant share rights as well as to control over the commission of other transactions, the subject of which is the share of limited liability company member is determined by the advantages of shares accounting for limited liability company participants also. The possibility of using the electronic resources of the Central Securities Depository in the part of implementing corporate management of a limited liability company or a company with additional liability is determined by the advantages of shares accounting for limited liability company participants also.

Comparative performance analysis of bitcoin cryptocurrency, stocks and gold as investments alternative

Based on data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI), more people are investing in the capital market due to easy access and education through technology. This study compares the performance of Bitcoin, stocks, and gold to help investors make informed choices. The sample consists of monthly closing prices for these three investments from January 1, 2018, to April 30, 2023, with a total of 192 data. Results show no significant return difference between Bitcoin, LQ45 stock, and UBS gold. However, there are significant differences in risk between these three investments. Performance calculations using Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen methods also show significant differences. Based on the research, LQ45 stock is the best investment option for investors.

Do financial ratios affect stock prices in the consumer non-cyclical sector?

<p>Maintaining a company's position among its competitors requires significant investment funds. The capital market is an alternative for companies to overcome investment funding constraints. Capital market performance is reflected in the Stock Index, which describes stock price movements. Fluctuating stock index movements indicate that there are things that influence the direction of the index. This research method uses secondary data sourced from the official website of the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (<em>Kustiodian Sentral Efek Indonesia-KSEI</em>), the Indonesian Stock Exchange (<em>Bursa Efek Indonesia-BEI</em>), the Financial Services Authority (<em>Otoritas Jada Keuangan-OJK</em>), and www.investing.com. Thirty-three companies operating in the non-cyclical consumer sector and listed on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) for the 2018-2022 period are the sample in this research. Furthermore, the approach used in this research is a quantitative method with multiple linear regression analysis tools processed using the SPSS 25.00 program. The results have a positive and insignificant effect, namely the Current Ratio (CR) and Debt to Equity Ratio (DER). On the contrary, Earning Per Share (EPS) and Return On Equity (ROE) are factors that have a positive and significant influence on share prices in the non-cyclical consumer sector recorded in the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) for the 2018-2022 period.</p>

Аналіз стану організації довгострокових портфельних іноземних інвестицій у Республіці Польща: уроки для України

The article describes the process of creation of the European international capital market, new financial instruments and formation of an investment portfolio from them in order to achieve the main goal of the investor – diversification, caused by investor’s desire not to participate in the operational management of the enterprise, however reducing the risk and maximizing the return on investment of his capital. The article then reviews the recent CEE Capital Markets conference, which was held in Poland, and concludes that by many criteria the Polish capital market is the largest in the region. In addition, the article emphasizes that foreign investment inflows to Poland reached a record level in 2021-2022. Therefore, based on all this data, the article analyses in detail the attraction of foreign investment into the economy of the Republic of Poland, taking into account three main prerequisites, namely: the establishment of uniform and unchanging rules of the game by creating an institutional framework for investment and ensuring the development of capital market infrastructure; ensuring the management of the Polish capital market with the help of two main players (the Central Securities Depository of Poland and Polish Financial Supervision Authority), shaping the professional activities of market participants and providing the supervision. The subsequent analysis of the state of Poland investment activity, presented in the National Banks Report “Poland International Investment Position for 2021”, showed that all this has played a significant role in attracting long-term portfolio investments, the biggest share of which is treasury debt, to the neighbouring countrys economy in recent years. Drawing a parallel with the current situation on the Ukrainian securities market, the article goes on to note that its regulatory framework generally meets the contemporary requirements. The other two prerequisites for creating acceptable conditions for a foreign portfolio investor are only under establishment. Right now, there is an urgent need to start building the infrastructure of Ukrainian securities market with the help of a neighbouring country.

A STOCK PREDICTION SYSTEM USING TEKNIKAL INDICATORS WITH THE LSTM METHOD

The capital market industry in Indonesia is developing in a better direction so that the growth of new investors is also increasing. Until the end of February 2021, operational data from the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) and data from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) recorded that the number of new capital market investors had increased by 16.35% or 634,350 investors, from the previous 3,880,753 investors. to 4,515,103 investors. The development of the capital market industry in Indonesia, which has increased investor interest in investing, is expected to mobilize public funds to support national economic development. Some companies that are familiar to the community are BCA, BNI, BRI and MANDIRI. This study attempts to forecast banking stock prices on the LQ45 index, using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. LSTM is one of the Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) which has good accuracy in predictions. The identified fields are Close, Open, RSI, MACD and MA. The evaluation method used in this prediction system is MAPE in the form of percent output.

Analysis of Stock Selection Model Strategy in Indonesia's Capital Market

The impact of investor behavior and decision-making on investment interest in the Indonesian capital market is ultimately tied to the stock selection model used to form an optimal portfolio. Therefore, this study aims to develop an optimal stock selection model in the Indonesian capital market. And thus, the novelty of this study relates to other studies that demonstrate how to improve investment decisions in the capital market in Indonesia. Whereas previous research focused solely on the associations between variables, this study examines the variables themselves. This investigation was carried out in the Greater Jakarta of Jabodetabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi). This research utilizes the Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) methodology. FAHP is the combination of AHP and a fuzzy concept approach. The FAHP method uses qualitative and quantitative data to make decisions. The data collection method employs primary data from the Survey Questionnaire and discussions, secondary data consisting of market data, stock price movement data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Indonesian Central Securities Depository, Bank Indonesia, and empirical literature about stock selection models. The results of the analysis indicate that forming the optimal portfolio in the Indonesian capital market involves predicting the price or stock return using a single factor that is thought to impact security. The primary objective assumed to be realized by the optimal portfolio formation approach on the Indonesian capital market is the optimization of stock combinations. Keywords: investor behavior, investor decision-making, capital market, investment, stocks

A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSET TRANSFERS

The processes used to transfer immovable property from a seller to a buyer in South Africa are outdated and not digitised. Paper-based documents increase the risk of fraud and misrepresentation. This study considered the implementation of a cloud-based centralised database for property supply chain partners to enhance transparency, turnaround times, and security while minimising risks and costs. Digitalised property processes would result in title deeds’ dematerialisation and not merely the automation of the paper-based system. This qualitative study was exploratory, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with role-players involved with property transfers in South Africa. These included the South African Reserve Bank, the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development, the Law Society of South Africa, mortgage originators, The Banking Association, the Department of Home Affairs, the Registrar of each Deeds Office, the Surveyor General’s office, municipalities, software companies, National Treasury, South Africa’s Central Securities Depository (Strate Ltd), and the Tshwane Mettropolitan Municipal Council. Keywords: Supply chain, Supply chain management, Land administration, Risk management, Payments systems, Information technology, Records management, Dematerialisation

Germany

Clearstream Banking Frankfurt (CBF) is a highly interconnected financial market infrastructure that provides a critical service for German financial markets and beyond. CBF is the central securities depository (CSD) in Germany providing mainly custody and settlement services, having received its license pursuant to Art. 16 of the CSDR on January 21, 2020 allowing it to perform core CSD services as well as non-banking ancillary services. It is also the operator of two securities settlement systems (SSS). In addition, CBF was authorized on August 24, 2021 to provide banking-type ancillary services as envisaged under Art. 54 CSDR.

Fear of Missing Out and Student Interest in Stocks Investment during Covid-19 Pandemic

The emergence of the Covid-19 virus in Indonesia for the first time in March 2020 immediately had a significant impact on the condition of the domestic stock market. However, while the pandemic occurred, the number of capital market investors increased almost three times in 2019. Based on demographic data at the Indonesian Central Securities Depository, students are the second-highest number of investors. This study aims to analyze whether the fear of missing out factor affects student behavior in making stock investment decisions during the covid-19 pandemic. Fear of missing out on investment is the behavior of investors dependent on social media. Such behavior cannot be separated from students who tend to be more active in using social media, especially amid a pandemic. This study takes a case study of students from Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta, considering that this campus has a proactive student activity unit in terms of stock investment, namely the Capital Market Study Group. The data collection technique was in the form of a questionnaire distributed to 100 respondents, and the data was then processed using multiple regression analysis. This study shows that fear of missing out has a positive and significant relationship with student interest in stocks investment along with return variable, stock prices, and age.

Company Size And Debt To Equity Ratio To Corporate Bond Yield To Maturity

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of firm size and debt to equity ratio on the yield to maturity of corporate bonds. The research design is associative with quantitative type. The data used is secondary data in the form of financial reports published by the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population used is all sectoral companies that issue corporate bonds for the 2017-2020 period listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and the Indonesia Central Securities Depository so that the selected population is 109 companies. The sampling technique uses the purposive samplingmethod, so that the selected sample is 4 companies. The analytical method used is multiple linear regression. By doing the classical assumption test, regression equation analysis, and the feasibility test of the regression model in which it is known that firm size has a positive and significant effect on the yield to maturity of corporate bonds, in addition the debt to equity ratio has positive and significant effect. To the yield to maturity of corporate bonds.

How Do Financial Experts Choose Stocks?

Objective: This study aims to determine factors that affect financial experts as investors to buy stocks. Do financial experts have different considerations and preferences from ordinary investors in making an investment decision? Design/Methods/Approach: The research data were obtained from an online questionnaire by 581 financial experts with Securities Sub Account in Indonesian Central Securities Depository. This research employs exploratory factor analysis to examine the correlation between 29 attribute statements to develop factors. Findings: The eight groups of factors that affect the Indonesian financial expert’s considerations in the stock investment such as financial performance, comprehensive analysis, benefit signaling, company image, company insight, community involvement, investor preference, and press coverage. Originality: This study incorporates behavioral finance and maximization utility to provide a more comprehensive understanding of stock investment decisions by financial experts. Practical/Policy implication (optional): The result has practical, functional consequences for the investor, especially in the selected stock portfolio analysis. Investment analysis should consider the eight groups of factors found before choosing the stock. If the investors can not assume all factors, they can view the financial performance as the top rank factor. Thus the investor will maximize the investment return in the future.

Financial Literacy, Risk Tolerance, Overconfidence, Experienced Regret, and Demographic Factors on Investment Decisions

According to data released by the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) in 2018-Sep 2021 there was an increase in Single Investor Identification on the capital market in Indonesia. This shows that the interest and awareness of investing is getting higher. Investment decisions must be made appropriately to avoid the risk of loss. This study aims to determine the effect of financial literacy, risk tolerance, overconfidence, experienced regret, gender, and income on investment decisions. The sample in this study was taken using a non-probability sampling method with purposive sampling technique and obtained as many as 129 investors respondents with domicile in Yogyakarta. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. Data collection techniques by distributing questionnaires in the form of google form. The results of this study show that financial literacy, risk tolerance, overconfidence, and income have a significant positive effect on investors' investment decisions in Yogyakarta. Experienced regret has a significant negative effect on investment decisions. Gender has no effect on investment decisions.

Central securities depositories and reform of the settlement process

The organisation and regulation of the European securities clearing and settlement business is again up for reform. The present dispersed European landscape calls for more integration as part of the formation of a European capital market, as proposed by the European Commission. These reforms would result in legislative changes, some of which are analysed in this paper, having raised active interest in the financial world: a new technique of dealing with settlement finality, proposing a mandatory buy-in tool as an effective instrument against settlement fails, and an analysis of settlement internalisation, which has risen to levels that, according to the Commission, might ‘undermine confidence in the CSD function’ and in the markets. On the two topics of settlement finality and settlement fails, data has now become available and is included. The third item analyses the use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in the settlement infrastructure. As part of its work stream on digital finance, the Commission has published a proposal — as a ‘pilot project’ — for a regulation dealing with the main items that have to be adapted upon the introduction of DLT in the existing securities settlement system (SSS) and multilateral trading facility (MTF) segments of the market. For central securities depository (CSD) using DLT, the existing regulation would remain applicable, but the operations would be exempted from numerous requirements applicable today. The impact on the markets will have to be closely monitored, hence the Commission’s ‘pilot project’. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already formulated its position of cautious optimism.

System of offences associated with securities fraud in the Russian Federation (Part 2)

This article is a sequence of research conducted by the authors on the topic of offences related to digital securities fraud (Part 2). It completes the design of the system of such offences, determining the “subsystem” that considers the economic nature of the Central Securities Depository. For this purpose, analysis is conducted on the articles of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation that form the system of offences related associated with the fraud of non-digital securities (Articles 185-186) from the perspective of their applicability to digital securities and peculiarities of such application. The research is based on the systemic approach, comparative-legal method, logical techniques of analysis and synthesis of information, as well as the method of deduction. The authors conclude on applicability of the Articles 185, 185.1, 185.2 and 185.4 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation to unlawful acts related to digital securities, taking into account the specificity of their legal regulation, namely the absence of necessity of state registration of stocks in the form of digital financial assets, the registration of rights to central securities depository by the information system operator that issued them, etc. Summarizing the results of this research with the results acquired in the Part I, the authors form the system of offences associated with the digital securities fraud, which includes the aforementioned elements, as well as the elements stipulated in the Article 187.1 “Organization of illegal trafficking of digital Rights” of the Draft Federal Law “On Amendments to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation”. The Russian legal science unfortunately does not give due attention to examination of this problem, and such system is developed for the first time. The authors anchor hopes that the system of offenses they have designed would be effectively used in the law enforcement practice in the context of classification of unlawful action associated with central securities depository.

Early health, risk aversion and stock market participation

To examine the relationship between early health status and financial decisions in adulthood, we link information on birth weight in 1966 from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort to data from the Finnish Central Securities Depository over the period of 1995–2010. We find that persons predisposed to poor health status in early childhood (indicated by low birth weight) avoid participating in the stock market in adulthood, with a 10% increase in birth weight associated with a 1.9% increase in probability of participation. The link between birth weight and stock market participation is partially channeled by poor early health status being associated with higher risk aversion. Early health status is not significantly related to risk taking in terms of the stock portfolio’s composition.

Pengaruh Status Quo, Herding Behaviour, Representativeness Bias, Mental Accounting, serta Regret Aversion Bias terhadap Keputusan Investasi Investor Milenial di Kota Surabaya

Investment activity in Indonesia steadily increases as more people become aware of the investment's value and potential returns. This study aims to determine the impact of status quo bias, herding behavior, representation, and mental accounting on the investment decisions of millennial investors in Surabaya. This study is conclusive because it used purposive and snowball sampling techniques to obtain samples by distributing online questionnaires—the research sample as many as 241 respondents. The analysis technique uses Structural Equation Model (SEM). This study focuses on millennial investors registered with the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) and securities firms in Surabaya. The findings suggest that the variables status quo and regret aversion significantly bias investment decisions, whereas herding behavior, representativeness, and mental accounting do not affect investment decisions. Thus, this study can assist various parties, particularly millennial investors, pay more attention to their biases and be more cautious when making investment decisions