Central, Eastern And South-Eastern European Countries Research Articles

The contribution of bank intermediation to economic growth: Empirical evidence from CESEE countries

The financial system is the crucial supporter of economic growth, as it is said to be the “blood” of economic activities. Many studies reveal the role and importance of the financial system in promoting economic development by raising growth through the accumulation and utilization of savings for productive investments (Levine, 2005). However, some studies highlight a negative or non-significant relationship which may differ depending on the sample of countries and the applied methodology, proxy of financial development, time period, etc. Based on the relevance of the topic and on the ongoing debate, the aim of this study is to explore the nexus and contribution of banking intermediation in the economic growth of some Central Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries for the period 2010–2020. We use regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS), and a fixed effect model to investigate the relationship between economic growth and bank intermediation. We measure the development of banking intermediation using banks’ credit to the private sector, credit to government and state-owned enterprises. The research results show that credits provided by banks do not affect economic growth and are in fact negatively related to economic growth, whereas the return on equity is positively related to economic growth.

Modelling CESEE Countries Export Dynamics: Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

Abstract One of the main aspects of the transition process in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries was the trade liberalisation. As their financial systems are still underdeveloped and the trade channel is the dominant shock transmitter, this paper focuses on export dynamics for a selected set of CESEE countries. The employed methodology, Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach, allows modelling interactions and spillovers among countries. Furthermore, it enables joint modelling of exports and imports. This is of particular importance as the opening of new markets enabled astonishing export growth, but also opened the CESEE markets to foreign products. The empirical analysis reveals that a shock in German imports has a larger impact on CESEE countries’ exports than a shock in German output. Moreover, the results indicate that the role of the real exchange rate is less pronounced in comparison to previous similar research.

An empirical investigation of determinants of life insurers’ performance: Evidence from selected countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE)

AbstractCentral, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe's life insurance market has received limited attention in the literature due to a lack of available data and lower level of maturity. However, part of the region is characterized by extraordinary growth rates, moderate to high concentration, a heavy presence of foreign affiliates, recent regulatory compliance, and low insurance culture. This study analyzes the firm‐specific, industry and macroeconomic determinants of life insurers’ performance in selected CESEE countries. We employ a dynamic panel GMM two‐step system estimator and uncover the most important drivers of life insurers’ profitability in the region. We find that size, leverage, liquidity, reinsurance, market share, and business growth matter for total profitability, while expense management drive underwriting profitability. The study expands the current literature on insurers’ performance by examining a neglected region and discusses location‐specific characteristics for foreign presence in the region.

Bank ownership and drivers of credit growth in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

AbstractIn this paper, we analyse the determinants of credit growth for banks operating in 20 countries in the post-communist Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE). We focus on foreign-owned banks and the parent-subsidiary nexus against the background of all banks operating in this part of Europe. Our goal is to determine whether the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants for host countries have a similar impact on the entire group of banks operating in CESEE and on its subset of foreign-owned banks and whether the rate of credit growth could be considered ceteris paribus equal across the foreign-owned and the complete set of banks in the CESEE. To this end, we use panel data regressions on approximately 4,600 bank-year observations over the period from 1995 to 2014. We conclude that the determinants of banks’ behaviour in the CESEE countries are consistent regardless of these banks’ ownership, the period and their EU membership. Although having a foreign investor expands the set of relevant determinants, the presence of such investors does not overshadow the importance of local conditions.

The Impact of Macroprudential Policies on Capital Flows in Cesee

In line with the recent policy discussion on the use of macroprudential measures to respond to cross-border risks arising from capital flows, this paper tries to quantify to what extent macroprudential policies (MPPs) have been able to stabilize capital flows in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) – a region that experienced a substantial boom-bust cycle in capital flows amid the global financial crisis and where policymakers had been quite active in adopting MPPs already before that crisis. To study the dynamic responses of capital flows to MPP shocks, we propose a novel regime-switching factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model. It allows to capture potential structural breaks in the policy regime and to control – besides domestic macroeconomic quantities – for the impact of global factors such as the global financial cycle. Feeding into this model a novel intensity-adjusted macroprudential policy index, we find that tighter MPPs may be effective in containing domestic private sector credit growth and the volumes of gross capital inflows in a majority of the countries analyzed. However, they do not seem to generally shield CESEE countries from capital flow volatility.

Reopening the debate on the relationship among remittances, household consumption stability and economic growth in emerging markets

PurposeThe impact of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth is not quite clear. This paper attempts to reopen the debate on the relationship among these three variables. The current remittance literature suggests that a decrease in household consumption volatility, induced by remittances, automatically leads to economic growth. This paper challenges these arguments by stating that, under certain circumstances, there is no automatic relationship among remittances, household consumption stability and growth.Design/methodology/approachThe authors approach the question from the perspective of emerging Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. The authors use the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with the Windmeijer (2005) finite-sample correction. To test the existence of the possible non-linear effects of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth, the authors use threshold regressions.FindingsThe authors find that remittances significantly reduce household consumption volatility. They exhibit a consumption-smoothing effect on recipient households. This stabilizing effect happens not through the preventive role of remittances, but rather through their compensatory role. Remittances produce a weaker stabilizing effect on household consumption when the remittance to GDP ratio of the recipient country is above the estimated threshold level of 4.5%. The authors also find that there is a negatively significant and linear impact of remittances on growth. There is no evidence to suggest that remittances can foster productive investment and therefore promote economic growth in CESEE countries, which means that: (1) the remittances cannot be treated as a source of funds to invest in human and physical capital and (2) the remittances are compensatory rather than profit-oriented.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are aware, this is the first study that investigates the impact of remittances on both household consumption stability and economic growth simultaneously.

Foreign Direct Investment Attractiveness of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries: The Importance of Policy-Related Location Advantages

The paper aims to enhance the discussion about foreign direct investment (FDI) attractiveness of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, by focusing on those location determinants of FDI which fall within the scope of public policy. First, we summarize the literature on location advantages. Second, some general trends in FDI inflows to the CESEE region are outlined. Third, based on data for 15 CESEE countries in 2013 and 2017, we build a composite index, which allows us to rank countries in terms of their FDI attractiveness, as well as its most important policy-related dimensions, such as institutional framework, infrastructure endowment, labor force quality, and cost competitiveness. In addition to allowing comparison between economies across these dimensions, the results reveal areas in which some countries need improvement so that they can attract more FDI.

Dancing the Viennese waltz or just doing business? The policy of parent banks in CESEE countries

ABSTRACT We investigate how group- and market-specific traits impact the credit policy of foreign-owned banks operating in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries over the 1995–2015 period using an instrumental variable fixed effects approach. This period includes the years of the global financial crisis (GFC), during which the Vienna Initiative (VI) was established to limit the negative impact of the crisis on five CESEE countries in which foreign-owned banks play a considerable role. We find evidence that the credit policy of banks operating in VI countries and/or owned by VI parents differs from the overall policy in the region. Our study suggests that parent banks focus on the geographical diversification of group assets on host markets, followed by ensuring that there is strict capital control and that return on equity outperforms that of the market. Our results confirm that the VI was efficient in immunising subsidiaries and countries.

Risk connectedness of selected CESEE stock markets: a spillover index approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically evaluate risk spillovers between selected CESEE (Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe) stock markets in order to evaluate the possibilities of an international diversification of a portfolio.Design/methodology/approachThe VAR model and the Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) spillover index are used, with rolling indices estimation over time in order to observe dynamics, which is important for investment strategies. Data are monthly and include selected CESEE stock market indices which were available to the researcher.FindingsThe empirical analysis for the period of January 2012–June 2019 indicates that some country risks were the net emitter of shocks in the system (Slovenia and Czech Republic), whereas some were net receivers (Croatia and Ukraine). The results are robust with respect to changing the length of the rolling window analysis, which means that investors could utilize such an approach in a dynamic portfolio selection.Research limitations/implicationsObserving only selected markets due to data (un)availability.Practical implicationsThe paper shows how international investors can utilize the aforementioned methodology in order to make a more detailed analysis of the dynamics of stock markets connectedness so that international portfolios can be rebalanced according to the results and investors’ preferences.Originality/valueThis is the first such research which focuses on CESEE countries, since existing research is focused on more developed stock markets. Moreover, the empirical analysis extends to commenting the pairwise net indices over time, which is important for the dynamic portfolio rebalancing over time.

Time Varying Spillovers between the Online Search Volume and Stock Returns: Case of CESEE Markets

This research observes a time varying relationship between stock returns, volatilities and the online search volume in regard to selected CESEE (Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European) stock markets. The main hypothesis of the research assumes that a feedback relationship exists between stock returns, volatilities and the investor’s attention variable (captured by the online search volume). Moreover, the relationship is assumed to be time varying due to changing market conditions. Previous research does not deal with the time-varying multi-directional relationship. Thus, the contribution to existing research consists of estimating the aforementioned relationship between return, volatility and the search volume series for selected CESEE countries by using a novel approach of spillover indices within the VAR (Vector AutoRegression) model framework. The results indicate that the Google search volume affects the risk series more than the return series on the selected markets.

Some new insights on economic convergence and growth in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

The existing empirical literature on economic convergence and growth emphasizes the importance of foreign capital inflows for the Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. This paper challenges such arguments by stating that not all forms of foreign capital inflows are beneficial for the economic growth of CESEE countries. Our results suggest that remittances (as an alternative foreign capital inflow) tend to slow down economic growth. Moreover, apart from the prevailing trends to investigate the economic convergence of CESEE towards Western European countries, this paper focuses on economic convergence within the CESEE region, that is, on economic convergence of the non-EU CESEE countries towards EU CESEE countries. We found that, in the last two decades, the living standard in the CESEE region has become increasingly equal. There is a tendency for poorer non-EU CESEE countries to grow faster than richer EU CESEE countries, which confirms the existence of absolute $$\beta$$ -convergence. We have also found that each CESEE country converges 2.8% closer to its own steady state, in the sense of conditional $$\beta$$ , every year.

Foreign-owned banks and foreign trade in CESEE countries – a growth-enhancing duo?

ABSTRACTBased on a sample of 14 Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries during the period between 1995 and 2015, we analyse how foreign-owned banks and foreign trade impact economic growth. To date, studies have concentrated on the interlinkages between different forms of foreign bank presence (cross-border flows, branches, subsidiaries and syndicated loans) and the scale of foreign trade (imports and exports). Our approach is novel because we analyse the impact of the similarity between the geographical structures of foreign-owned banks and foreign trade on economic growth. We find that this similarity is not conducive to economic growth and reduces the benefits of a country’s openness to trade.

The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth

ABSTRACTThis paper explores the finance–growth nexus in 14 countries from Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) over the 1995–2015 period. It investigates whether including two ‘non-standard’ variables, i.e. a credit cycle dummy and foreign bank relevance, deepens our understanding of the role of a typical financial determinant of economic growth, i.e. bank credit. We find evidence of a negative impact of bank credit on economic growth and the significance of cyclical fluctuations of bank credit. In contrast, a higher market share of loans granted by foreign-owned banks in a cyclical upswing and stock market capitalisation are found to have a proactive effect on growth.

Banking Sector Competition in the Panzar-Rosse Framework and Net Interest Margins: An Empirical Analysis Using the General Method of Moments

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of net interest margins in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European countries (CESEE) during the period 1999–2009, with a particular focus on the relationship between banking sector competition and net interest margins. Using country-level Panzar-Rosse H-statistic estimates as a measure of competition, and the General Method of Moments, it has been determined that banking sector competition had a negative impact on net interest margins. In order to check for consistency, alternative measures of competition, such as the Lerner index and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, have also been used. The results appear consistent and suggest that higher market power is associated with higher interest margins. A number of interactions have been used to check for the impact of competition when interacted with other variables. The study also provides evidence on the impact of other bank-specific, macroeconomic, and institutional variables on net interest margins.

Institutions and Firms’ Performance in Transition Countries: The Case of Selected Cesee Countries

Abstract Institutional reforms in the countries of Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe (CESEE) brought about a redefinition of the role of the state, the market and the business sector. We assess the effects of various dimensions of the institutional environment on the labour productivity of manufacturing firms in selected CESEE countries by employing a multilevel model. Our findings reveal that the curbing of corruption and the provision of inter-industrial externalities through the development of a commercial and professional infrastructure have beneficial effects on firm productivity. At the same time, a stricter political and legal framework and the provision of R&D infrastructure have an adverse effect. Such a finding is typical for producers of standardised products in countries with low levels of legal framework development for which R&D and legal adjustments incur cost disadvantages. The implication is that institutional development should be accompanied by a strengthening of firms’ absorptive capacity in order for businesses to benefit from such changes

Rola kapitału zagranicznego w sektorze bankowym dla stabilności finansowej i rozwoju gospodarczego krajów postkomunistycznych

The foreign capital in the banking sector plays an important role in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries. The global financial crisis has shown that apart from the positive impact of foreign-owned banks, they also constitute a transmission channel for shocks to host countries. This study covers 20 CESEE countries over the period 1995–2014 and concentrates on the role of foreign-owned banks for financial stability and economic growth. Our results indicate that their role is neutral, however, a negative impact may be indirect because of their aggressive lending policies.

Real Convergence in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe

This article establishes stylised facts about convergence and analyses the sources of economic growth in central, eastern and south-eastern European (CESEE) economies within and outside the European Union (EU).22 It also compares the performance across countries and identifies the challenges that these economies face on the way to further advancing convergence. Although all CESEE economies have converged towards the most advanced EU economies since 2000, progress has been heterogeneous. While some countries have experienced fast economic growth and a speedy catching-up, for others the catching-up process has been rather slow. Economic convergence has been much faster in the CESEE countries that became members of the EU (including those which later joined the euro area) than in the Western Balkan countries that are currently EU candidates or potential candidates. Convergence was particularly rapid before the global financial crisis, but slowed down thereafter. The article identifies several factors that are common to the most successful countries in the region in terms of the pace of convergence since 2000. These include (inter alia) improvements in institutional quality, external competitiveness and innovation, increases in trade openness, high or improving levels of human capital, and relatively high investment rates. Looking ahead, accelerating and sustaining convergence in the region will require further efforts to enhance institutional quality and innovation, reinvigorate investment, and address the adverse impact of population ageing. For EU candidates and potential candidates, EU accession prospects might constitute an anchor for reform momentum – in particular, but not exclusively, in the key area of enhancing institutional quality – and thus support the long-term growth prospects and real convergence of these countries. JEL Classification: E01, F15, O11, O43, O47

HTA and decision-making processes in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe: Results from a survey

ObjectiveTo gain knowledge and insights on health technology assessment (HTA) and decision-making processes in Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe (CESEE) countries. MethodsA cross-sectional study was performed. Based on the literature, a questionnaire was developed in a multi-stage process. The questionnaire was arranged according to 5 broad domains: (i) introduction/country settings; (ii) use of HTA in the country; (iii) decision-making process; (iv) implementation of decisions; and (v) HTA and decision-making: future challenges. Potential survey respondents were identified through literature review—with a total of 118 contacts from the 24 CESEE countries. From March to July 2014, the survey was administered via e-mail. ResultsA total of 22 questionnaires were received generating an 18.6% response rate, including 4 responses indicating that their institutions had no involvement in HTA. Most of the CESEE countries have entities under government mandates with advisory functions and different responsibilities for decision-making, but mainly in charge of the reimbursement and pricing of medicines. Other areas where discrepancies across countries were found include criteria for selecting technologies to be assessed, stakeholder involvement, evidence requirements, use of economic evaluation, and timeliness of HTA. ConclusionsA number of CESEE countries have created formal decision-making processes for which HTA is used. However, there is a high level of heterogeneity related to the degree of development of HTA structures, and the methods and processes followed. Further studies focusing on the countries from which information is scarcer and on the HTA of health technologies other than medicines are warranted. ClassificationReviews/comparative analyses.

Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign-Owned Banks in CESEE Countries

This study focuses on the role of financial development in the economic growth of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries in the post-communist era (1995–2014), which coincides with the opening up of financial markets to foreign investors and the global financial crisis. We investigate whether economic growth in CESEE countries has benefited from the presence of foreign-owned banks. To this end, we introduce some refined measures of financial development and control for banks’ financial strength. Our results challenge the idea that bank credit fosters economic growth and that foreign-owned banks are indisputably a positive addition to local markets able to foster economic growth.

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods—production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions—to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners’ slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region.