Central Africa Research Articles

Towards black methods in research with refugees

Abstract Critical approaches to forced displacement and migration studies gesture towards methodologies and theoretical orientations that are contextualized within the complex socialities of refuge lifeworlds and ways of being. This article offers methodological approaches that account for the forces of displacement as well as the layered and textured experiences of forcibly displaced people. Turning to black studies and black feminist thought, the article examines how forcibly displaced people navigate and contest resettlement processes in the USA. Thinking with empirical material from a research study engaging with forcibly displaced interlocutors from East and Central Africa and refugee resettlement personnel, the article illuminates critical methods of interpreting the experiences of refugees and forms of resettlement through the lenses of black studies and black feminist thought.

Phylogenetic placement of Mt Bamboutos endemic skink, Trachylepis mekuana (Chirio and Ineich, 2001)

African skinks of the genus Trachylepis is one of the most diverse genera of lizards in Africa. Although, many species have not been validated phylogenetically in recent years. In this study we evaluate the phylogenetic status of the Cameroon Volcanic Line endemic montane skink, Trachylepis mekuana. We recover this species as part of the larger Trachylepis varia group, with sister relationship to the morphological similar skinks from Eastern Africa Trachylepis megalura and central Africa Trachylepis raymondlaurenti. Low sequence divergence (<1.6% 16S) have been observed among the three species. Based on some morphological and colouration differences, as well as mostly allopatric distribution we regard them as good species.

Performance evaluation of UKESM1 for surface ozone across the pan-tropics

Abstract. Surface ozone monitoring sites in the tropics are limited, despite the risk that surface ozone poses to human health, tropical forest and crop productivity. Atmospheric chemistry models allow us to assess ozone exposure in unmonitored locations and evaluate the potential influence of changing policies and climate on air quality, human health and ecosystem integrity. Here, we utilise in situ ozone measurements from ground-based stations in the pan-tropics to evaluate ozone from the UK Earth system model, UKESM1, with a focus on remote sites. The study includes ozone data from areas with limited previous data, notably tropical South America, central Africa and tropical northern Australia. Evaluating UKESM1 against observations beginning in 1987 onwards, we show that UKESM1 is able to capture changes in surface ozone concentration at different temporal resolutions, albeit with a systematic high bias of 18.1 nmol mol−1 on average. We use the diurnal ozone range (DOR) as a metric for evaluation and find that UKESM1 captures the observed DOR (mean bias of 2.7 nmol mol−1 and RMSE of 7.1 nmol mol−1) and the trend in DOR with location and season. Results from this study reveal that hourly ozone concentrations from UKESM1 require bias correction before use for impact assessments based on human and ecosystem health. Indeed, hourly surface ozone data have been crucial to this study, and we encourage other modelling groups to include hourly surface ozone output as a default.

Impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on the tropical African climate in an ocean–atmosphere–aerosol coupled climate model

Abstract. The impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) emitted in central Africa on the tropical African climate is studied using the ocean–atmosphere global climate model CNRM-CM, including prognostic aerosols. The direct BBA forcing, cloud feedbacks (semi-direct effects), effects on surface solar radiation, atmospheric dynamics and precipitation are analysed for the 1990–2014 period. During the June–July–August (JJA) season, the CNRM-CM simulations reveal a BBA semi-direct effect exerted on low-level clouds with an increase in the cloud fraction of ∼5 %–10 % over a large part of the tropical ocean. The positive effect of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds is found to be mainly due to the sea surface temperature response (decrease of ∼0.5 K) associated with solar heating at 700 hPa, which increases the lower-tropospheric stability. Over land, results also indicate a positive effect of BBA on the low-cloud fraction, especially for the coastal regions of Gabon and Angola, with a potentially enhanced impact in these coupled simulations that integrates the response (cooling) of the sea surface temperature (SST). In addition to the BBA radiative effect on SST, the ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations highlight that the oceanic temperature response is noticeable (about −0.2 to −0.4 K) down to ∼80 m depth in JJA between the African coast and 10° W. In parallel to low-level clouds, reductions of ∼5 %–10 % are obtained for mid-level clouds over central Africa, mainly due to BBA-induced surface cooling and lower-tropospheric heating inhibiting convection. In terms of cloud optical properties, the BBA radiative effects induced an increase in the optical depth of about ∼2–3 over the ocean south of the Equator. The result of the BBA direct effect and feedback on tropical clouds modulates the surface solar radiation over the whole of tropical Africa. The strongest surface dimming is over central Africa (∼-30 W m−2), leading to a large reduction in the continental surface temperature (by ∼1 to 2 K), but the solar radiation at the oceanic surface is also affected up to the Brazilian coast. With respect to the hydrological cycle, the CNRM-CM simulations show a negative effect on precipitation over the western African coast, with a decrease of ∼1 to 2 mm d−1. This study also highlights a persistent impact of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds (increase in cloud fraction, liquid water content and optical depth) during the September–October–November (SON) period, mainly explained by a residual cooling of sea surface temperature over most of the tropical ocean. In SON, the effect on precipitation is mainly simulated over the Gulf of Guinea, with a reduction of ∼1 mm d−1. As for JJA, the analysis clearly highlights the important role of the slow response of the ocean in SON and confirms the need to use coupled modelling platforms to study the impact of BBA on the tropical African climate.

Recognising and responding to the community needs of gay and bisexual men around mpox.

In May 2022, a global surge in mpox cases, typically endemic to Western and Central Africa, particularly affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). This study examines gbMSM communities' experiences and perceptions around Ireland's public health response to the outbreak. A cross-sectional mixed-methods online survey was conducted. Qualitative data were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis informed by critical realism. A total of 163 gay and bisexual men took part in the survey. Participants accessed information from diverse sources, reporting varying levels of trustworthiness. Overall, participants were well-informed. Four themes were developed from the qualitative data: (1) Perceptions of the mpox response: divergence in urgency, priority, and care; (2) The mpox outbreak as a sign of otherness for gbMSM; (3) The potential for othering through mpox prevention practices; and (4) mpox, memory and fear. While community-led initiatives were effective, significant challenges included stigmatisation, discrimination, and mistrust towards public health institutions, influenced by institutionalised homophobia. The study underscores the need for inclusive, culturally sensitive, and transparent public health strategies. The mpox outbreak highlights the importance of robust community collaboration in public health interventions. Future strategies must ensure equitable access to information, vaccination, and care, and address broader structural inequalities to foster trust and engagement within affected communities.

Factors hindering the implementation of urban planning tools in Central Africa: Case study of reference urban plan for Sarh Town (Chad)

The reference urban plan is an urban planning tool often used to orient the development of Chadian cities. However, expanding Chadian urban centers, such as Sarh, face challenges in implementing urban planning orientations of their urban plans within the set deadlines. The objective of this study is to identify the factors impeding the effective implementation of the reference urban plan for Sarh town. The methodology employed encompasses a literature review, individual interviews with urban planning experts, geographic information system (GIS) data, household surveys and statistical analysis. The results revealed that less than a quarter (19.72%) of the households surveyed were aware of the reference urban plan. The applied logistic regression model identified age, occupation and level of education as the main factors influencing public participation in the preparation of the reference urban plan. On average, 33.33% of the urban planning guidelines and 21.74% of the projected urban projects were implemented, with a difference of 1631.28 hectares (ha) between the projected plan and the actual plan for the town. Five factors were identified as contributing to the failure to implement the reference urban plan for Sarh town, including low funding, inadequate land management, a lack of political will, weak governance and poor communication. Consequently, participatory and inclusive planning approaches, effective financial mobilisation, strong governance, and the use of modern technologies such as GIS tools are recommended to enhance the implementation of urban planning tools.

Revalidation of Enteromius crocodilensis (Fowler, 1934) from synonymy with the disjunctly distributed Enteromius argenteus (Günther, 1868) based on molecular and morphological evidence.

The rosefin barb, Enteromius argenteus, as currently described, is a freshwater fish with a distribution that is geographically separated and divided into the northern population in the Kwanza River system in Angola, and the southern population in the Inkomati River system in South Africa and Eswatini. Due to this disjunct distribution pattern, it is likely that the two populations represent distinct species. mtDNA sequence data and detailed examination of morphometric characters revealed considerable genetic (2.8%-3.5%) and morphological differentiation of the two populations, suggesting their recognition as two distinct species. Enteromius crocodilensis is revalidated and redescribed for the southern population that is readily distinguished from E. argenteus by nonoverlapping circumpeduncular scale counts (12-13 vs. 14) and color pattern (presence of a conspicuous dark band along the midline vs. absence of characteristic melanin patterns). Phylogenetic analysis based on mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) data places both E. argenteus and E. crocodilensis in a well-supported clade that includes a number of morphologically similar sawfin barb species from southern and central Africa.

The Evolution of Cameroonian Cooperation with the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation: A Historical and Geopolitical Analysis

This paper investigates the historical and evolving relationship between Cameroon and the Soviet Union and later, the Russian Federation, focusing on political, military, economic, and cultural dimensions. Positioned strategically at the crossroads of West and Central Africa, Cameroon has balanced longstanding ties with France against a growing partnership with Russia. Since the Soviet Union’s formal recognition of Cameroon's independence in 1964, Soviet support in education, infrastructure, and ideological alignment contributed to a foundational relationship grounded in anti-colonial and socialist values. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, relations were reestablished with the Russian Federation, shifting from ideological alignment to pragmatic cooperation, particularly in defense and economic engagement. Key findings indicate that Russia cooperation with Cameroon cut across education, reciprocal visa exemption agreement for holders of diplomatic and service passports, food trade and military defense. The study uses a qualitative methodology, incorporating primary sources such as government records, treaty documents, and public statements, alongside secondary sources including academic articles and policy analyses. This approach allows for an examination of key historical milestones, the role of security concerns, and economic priorities that have shaped Cameroonian-Russian relations over the years.

Dynamic and thermodynamic contribution to the October 2019 exceptional rainfall in western central Africa

Abstract. Exceptional rainfall hit western central Africa in October 2019. To understand its underlying mechanisms, we examined the regional moisture and moist static energy (MSE) budgets, intending to highlight the importance of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects associated with this historic event. Analysis of the moisture budget reveals that the precipitation anomalies in October were mainly controlled by dynamic effects. Horizontal moisture advection induced by horizontal wind anomalies controls extreme precipitation north of western central Africa, while vertical moisture advection induced by vertical velocity anomalies controls extreme precipitation south of western central Africa. Changes in the thermodynamic effect, although not the key factor responsible for the events of October 2019, contribute up to 35 % of the total effect on the northern part and 15 % on the southern part of the domain. The residual term on the northern part is important and provides a caveat when estimating dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Diagnosis of the MSE balance averaged over the northern part of western central Africa shows that the anomalous vertical motion is dominated by the dynamic effect, i.e., the wet enthalpy advection induced by the horizontal wind anomalies. This is confirmed by the high spatial correlation (r=0.6) between the two terms compared to the other terms, whereas to the west of the Congo Basin, the increase in the net energy balance dominated the changes in vertical motion (r=0.51). The horizontal advection of the MSE induced by the anomalies of the wet enthalpy and the vertical advection of the MSE induced by the anomalies of the MSE seem less important (r=0.29 and −0.19 to the north and −0.17 and 0.03 to the south). The strong anomalies in the MSE balance in the north are linked to its meridional component, in particular the meridional wind anomalies in the dynamic effect and the meridional anomalies in latent heat in the thermodynamic effect. Our results suggest that dynamic and thermodynamic effects should be jointly considered for adequately anticipating this kind of extreme event. Understanding the associated mechanisms could help us improve our forecasts and projections and increase the region's population resilience to these extreme weather events.

Cancer in the Grand Libreville, Gabon (2013–2017)

BackgroundThe burden of cancer is expected to nearly double in sub-Saharan Africa over the next 20 years. In Gabon, the primary population-based cancer registry to be established is located in the Grand Libreville. This study presents cancer incidence rates covering the first 5-year period of registration in this region. Patients and methods1,549 cancer cases were recorded among residents of the Grand Libreville between 2013 and 2017, 955 (61.6 %) women and 594 (38.3 %) males. ResultsThe age standardized incidence rates (ASR) for all sites were 73.3 per 105 in females and 47.7 per 105 in males, rather similar from those observed in neighbouring countries of central Africa. Breast (ASR 19.0 per 105) and cervical cancers (ASR 16.3 per 105) accounted for half of female cancers. Prostate (ASR 12.0 per 105), liver (ASR 5.1 per 105) and colorectal cancers (ASR of 5.0 per 105) accounted for 41.1 % of male cancers. ConclusionBreast and prostate cancers ranked first in females and males, respectively, even if the incidences appear much lower in comparison with other regional cancer registries rates, implying they may be underestimated. Cancers of the digestive organs were markedly more frequent in men than women, especially for liver, colorectal (and anus) and the mouth and pharynx. The incidence rates of these latter cancers are relatively similar to those of other registries of the central African region. These results may be of importance for implementing more adapted strategies in the battle against cancer.

Tumor-Associated Edema in Children with Kaposi Sarcoma: 14 Years’ Experience at Kamuzu Central Hospital, Lilongwe, Malawi

Background/Objectives: Kaposi sarcoma (KS) is a common lymphatic endothelial cancer among children with and without HIV in central and eastern Africa. Despite its clinical heterogeneity, its various clinical phenotypes are often grouped together in staging and treatment algorithms. Patients with KS tumor-associated edema, referring to hard, non-pitting lesions which often lead to chronic disability, represent a unique, understudied subgroup of children with KS. To continue our work defining the distinct phenotypes of pediatric KS, this study aimed to assess the clinical progression and outcomes of KS edema in children. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi, focusing on children diagnosed with KS edema between 2010 and 2023. Results: We identified 52 children with KS edema, representing 27% of all patients with KS. Initial chemotherapy resulted in a clinical response in 92% of patients, but 46% experienced relapse or disease progression with a median time to first relapse of 12 months. Multiple progressions were common, with 31% of patients experiencing two or more events. Event-free survival at two years was 32%, dropping to 24% at five years, while overall survival was 73% at two years and 57% at five years. Relapse was more common among patients with KS edema versus those without it (relative risk = 2.1; 95%CI, 1.4–3.2; p < 0.001). Eight patients (15%) relapsed with visceral disease, five of whom originally presented with KS edema alone. Conclusions: Patients with KS edema have a unique, relapsing-remitting pattern of disease with a high risk of relapse relative to other forms of KS with subsequent long-term mortality, even after initial positive treatment responses. Late relapse and mortality with visceral disease are possible even among children presenting initially with KS edema alone. Children with KS edema require long-term follow-up, and novel treatment approaches tailored towards preventing frequent relapse are needed.

The relationship between seasonality and the diagnosis of acute leukaemia in central South Africa

Background: Leukaemias are haematological malignancies resulting from the abnormal clonal proliferation of haematopoietic precursors. Their incidence is influenced by various environmental and genetic factors.Aim: With this retrospective descriptive study, the authors aimed to explore the possible influence of seasonality on the type and number of acute leukaemia (AL) diagnoses made at the Universitas Academic Hospital (UAH) National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) from 01 January 2018 to 31 December 2021.Setting: Universitas Academic Hospital, Bloemfontein, South Africa.Methods: Archived laboratory reports of all patients diagnosed with lymphoid and myeloid during the study period were included. Patients’ age, sex, ethnicity, final diagnosis and date of diagnosis were recorded. Information was pseudonymised to maintain confidentiality. A descriptive statistical analysis was performed to explore the possible influence of seasonality on the number of cases and type of leukaemia diagnosed.Results: In all, 249 patients were included. Acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) was the most common AL subtype (n = 117; 47.0%). Over the 4-year study period, all AL subtypes were more frequently diagnosed in summer (n = 131; 52.6%). However, the monthly number of AL diagnoses was relatively consistent over the 4 years for all subtypes (p = 0.7603), with consistent peaks of AML cases during January and February (summer) and May (autumn).Conclusion: No statistically significant association between the different seasons and AL diagnosis was noted.Contribution: Further studies using a larger study population and a wider geographical area, conducted over a more extended period, might affect the observations made in this study

East and Central Africa 2023

East and Central Africa 2023

A single mutation G454A in the P450 CYP9K1 drives pyrethroid resistance in the major malaria vector Anopheles funestus reducing bed net efficacy.

Metabolic mechanisms conferring pyrethroid resistance in malaria vectors are jeopardizing the effectiveness of insecticide-based interventions, and identification of their markers is a key requirement for robust resistance management. Here, using a field-lab-field approach, we demonstrated that a single mutation G454A in the P450 CYP9K1 is driving pyrethroid resistance in the major malaria vector Anopheles funestus in East and Central Africa. Drastic reduction in CYP9K1 diversity was observed in Ugandan samples collected in 2014, with selection of a predominant haplotype (G454A mutation at 90%), which was completely absent in the other African regions. However, six years later (2020) the Ugandan 454A-CYP9K1 haplotype was found predominant in Cameroon (84.6%), but absent in Malawi (Southern Africa) and Ghana (West Africa). Comparative in vitro heterologous expression and metabolism assays revealed that the mutant 454A-CYP9K1 (R) allele significantly metabolises more type II pyrethroid (deltamethrin) compared with the wild G454-CYP9K1 (S) allele. Transgenic Drosophila melanogaster flies expressing 454A-CYP9K1 (R) allele exhibited significantly higher type I and II pyrethroids resistance compared to flies expressing the wild G454-CYP9K1 (S) allele. Furthermore, laboratory testing and field experimental hut trials in Cameroon demonstrated that mosquitoes harbouring the resistant 454A-CYP9K1 allele significantly survived to pyrethroids exposure (Odds ratio = 567, p < 0.0001). This study highlights the rapid spread of pyrethroid resistant CYP9K1 allele, under directional selection in East and Central Africa, contributing to reduced bed net efficacy. The newly designed DNA-based assay here will add to the toolbox of resistance monitoring and improving its management strategies.

Anti-microtubular activity of total alkaloids and aqueous extract of Detarium microcarpum a medicinal plant harvested in Mali.

Detarium microcarpum, is a species confined to drier regions of west and central Africa used to treat various diseases including cancer. Phytochemical screening revealed the presence of secondary metabolites (alkaloids) The aim of this work is to study the effect of total aqueous extracts and alkaloid fractions from D. microcarpum leaves, bark and roots on Nicotiana tabacum L. cv. 'Bright Yellow 2' (BY-2) tobacco cell line GFP-TuA3 expressing a N-terminal fusion of GFP. The plant was harvested in two different regions of Mali with a contrasting climate. The effects of the extracts on the microtubules was followed by spinning disc confocal microscopy. We showed that the anti-microtubular effect of the extracts is dose-dependent, depends of the sampling site and the part of the plant used. Total alkaloids extracted of D. microcarpum bark have more effect on microtubules than leaf and root. The bioactivity-guided fractionation should be used to screen out the biologically active compounds of the total alkaloid extracts of the bark of D. microcarpum.

Mpox-diagnosis, treatment, immunization, and prognosis

Mpox (previously known as monkeypox) is receiving attention worldwide due to outbreaks in various countries since May 2022. On August 14, 2024, based on the increase Mpox infections, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared apublic health emergency. The zoonotic disease is caused by the Mpox virus, an Orthopoxvirus related to other Poxviridae. The virus is transmitted via direct contact with infected bodily fluids, respiratory droplets, or contaminated objects and has an incubation time of 5-21days. Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle pain, and a characteristic skin rash which progresses from macules, to papules, to vesicles, and to pustules before scabbing over. There are two main genetic clades of Mpox: cladeI (Central Africa) and cladeII (West Africa), whereby cladeIIb was responsible for the 2022 outbreak. Diagnosis is based on PCR testing of skin lesions. Although Mpox may mimic other diseases such as chickenpox or syphilis, lymphadenopathy is a distinguishing feature. Treatment is primarily supportive, although antiviral agents such as tecovirimat and cidofovir have shown a certain efficacy. Vaccination is an important protective measure; MVA-BN and ACAM2000 are among the available vaccines. Prognosis depends on the clade, the access to medical care, and the underlying health status. Immunocompromised persons and children are at a higher risk of a severe course.

Does entrepreneurs’ psychology and organizational resilience of SMES: empirical findings from Central Africa

Does entrepreneurs’ psychology and organizational resilience of SMES: empirical findings from Central Africa

Global trends in CD4 count measurement and distribution at first antiretroviral treatment initiation.

While people with HIV (PWH) start antiretroviral treatment (ART) regardless of CD4 count, CD4 measurement remains crucial for detecting advanced HIV disease and evaluating ART programmes. We explored CD4 measurement (proportion of PWH with a CD4 result available) and prevalence of CD4 <200 cells/µL at ART initiation within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) global collaboration. We included PWH at participating ART programmes who first initiated ART at age 15-80 years during 2005-2019. We described proportions of PWH (i) with CD4 (measured within 6 months before to 2 weeks after ART initiation); and (ii) among those with a CD4, with CD4 <200; by year of ART initiation and region. We included 1,355,104 PWH from 42 countries in 7 regions; 63% were female. Median (interquartile range) age at ART initiation was 37 (31-44) in men and 32 (26-39) in women. CD4 measurement initially increased, or remained stable over time until around 2013, but then declined to low levels in some regions (Southern Africa, except South Africa: from 54 to 13%; East Africa 85 to 31%; Central Africa 72 to 20%; West Africa: 91 to 53%; and Latin America: 87 to 56%). Prevalence of CD4<200 declined over time in all regions, but plateaued after 2015 at ≥30%. CD4 measurement has declined sharply in recent years, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Among those with a CD4, the prevalence of CD4 <200 remains concerningly high. Scaling up CD4 testing and securing adequate funding are urgent priorities.

De Kaapsche Kerk, the British Empire, slavery, and the discourses of good and evil

It is a well-known history that the Dutch church in South Africa’s Cape colony up until the early 19th century had readily accommodated the institution of slavery as commonly practiced within Cape Dutch society. Slavery was not seen as “good” but generally accepted as an unfortunate reality of life. Some groups of people, particularly those of non-European heritage, were seen within this colonist society as naturally predisposed for slavery. Biblical arguments regarding examples of the non-denunciation of slavery in both Old and New Testament scriptures could easily be mustered in defence of the institution against the rare voices protesting the practice. In that sense the Cape Church was not any different from most other Christian churches in colonial societies worldwide. Yet the Cape church also had some strong antislavery statements and advocates from within its ranks since at least the first half of the nineteenth century. As seen for example in Dreyer’s collection of documents under the title, “Die Kaapse Kerk en die Groot Trek”, several high placed church leaders opposed the migration of Dutch farmers from the Cape colony in the 1830s on the basis that the migration occurred in disobedience to British colonial legislation that were effectively seen as seeking to stamp out slavery and associated practices. The Dutch farmers tended to see the British Empire as an evil empire. The Cape Church leadership, to the contrary, which by then included a number of abolitionist Scottish pastors in its ranks viewed their emigrating members, at least initially, as being in rebellion not only against the civil rulers but also against the church, and they, albeit for the most part unsuccessfully, sought to dissuade the emigrants from abandoning their chosen paths. In the subsequent decades a number of Cape Church pastors sought contact with the migrants with the intent of bringing them back into the fold. This article presents the case of a noteworthy equalisation campaigner in this regard, Rev. D.P.M. Huet. Another episode occurred later in the 19th century in the mission fields associated with the Cape Church in central Africa, Nyasaland as it was known at the time. Again, it is a well-known story that some of the early Christian missionaries in these areas, most notably David Livingstone, confronted slave traders and agitated against the practice which was still rife throughout the region during much of the 19th century. Yet, as far as the Cape Church and Afrikaners more generally were concerned, historical accounts often suggest that particularly the northern Boers were more often themselves involved in the slave trade rather than acting against it. Yet, as this article will indicate the early missionary enterprise of the Cape Church in central Africa actively engaged in anti-slavery activities with a central character in this being missionary, William Hoppe Murray who served as leader of the mission in Nyasaland for a substantial period.The article finally discusses the case of De Kaapsche Kerk (the Dutch Reformed Church in the Cape Colony) in relation to slavery and empire with reference to notions of good and evil.

Long-Term Spatiotemporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration Across Arid Asia and Africa

This study examines trends in precipitation (PRE), maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator between 1901 and 2022 in the arid lands of Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The results reveal complex spatial and temporal climate change patterns across the study area. Annual PRE shows a slight negative trend (Z = −0.881, p = 0.378), with significant decreases from 1951–2000 (Z = −3.329, p = 0.001). The temperatures exhibit strong warming trends (TMIN: Z = 9.591, p &lt; 0.001; TMAX: Z = 8.405, p &lt; 0.001). PET increased significantly (Z = 6.041, p &lt; 0.001), with acceleration in recent decades. Spatially, precipitation decreased by 10% in maximum annual values, while PET increased by 10–15% in many areas. Temperature increases of 2–3 °C were observed, with TMAX rising from 36–39 °C to 39–42 °C in some MENA regions. Seasonal analysis shows winter precipitation decreasing significantly in recent years (Z = −1.974, p = 0.048), while summer PET shows the strongest increasing trend (Z = 5.647, p &lt; 0.001). Spatial analysis revealed clear latitudinal gradients in temperature and PET, with higher values in southern regions. PRE patterns were more complex, with coastal and mountainous areas receiving more precipitation. The combination of rising temperatures, increasing PET, and variable PRE trends suggest an overall intensification of aridity in many parts of the region. This analysis provides crucial insights into the climate variability of these water-scarce areas, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies in water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem conservation.