Centennial-scale Climate Change Research Articles

Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies

Classic Maya populations living in peri-urban states were highly dependent on seasonally distributed rainfall for reliable surplus crop yields. Despite intense study of the potential impact of decadal to centennial-scale climatic changes on the demise of Classic Maya sociopolitical institutions (750-950 CE), its direct importance remains debated. We provide a detailed analysis of a precisely dated speleothem record from Yok Balum cave, Belize, that reflects local hydroclimatic changes at seasonal scale over the past 1600 years. We find that the initial disintegration of Maya sociopolitical institutions and population decline occurred in the context of a pronounced decrease in the predictability of seasonal rainfall and severe drought between 700 and 800 CE. The failure of Classic Maya societies to successfully adapt to volatile seasonal rainfall dynamics likely contributed to gradual but widespread processes of sociopolitical disintegration. We propose that the complex abandonment of Classic Maya population centres was not solely driven by protracted drought but also aggravated by year-to-year decreases in rainfall predictability, potentially caused by a regional reduction in coherent Intertropical Convergence Zone-driven rainfall.

Spatio-temporal patterns of centennial-scale climate change over the Tibetan Plateau during the past two millennia and their possible mechanisms

In order to project future changes in climate and their corresponding environmental and social impacts, it is of utmost importance to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of past climate changes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Although numerous records of late Holocene climate changes have been developed across the TP, the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in temperature and precipitation/moisture are unclear and a comprehensive review of this topic is urgently needed. Here, we present such a synthesis using currently available temperature and precipitation/moisture records from across the TP to understand spatial and temporal variations over the past two millennia. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Temperature variations on the TP during the past two millennia are not homogeneous and show strong seasonality. Although patterns of mean annual temperature change on the TP during the past two millennia remain contradictory, summer temperature variations are generally consistent. The summer temperature reconstructions indicate that the warmest period during the past two millennia was in the middle ages, as opposed to the recent 20th century. 2) Precipitation/moisture patterns on the TP are spatially complex. The most striking feature is that an inverse pattern of precipitation/moisture variation can be detected over most parts of the TP between 600-1400 AD and 1400-1900 AD. Specifically, the eastern TP, southwestern TP, and part of the northeastern TP were generally wetter, whereas the southeastern TP, the southern TP, the northwestern TP, and part of the northeastern TP were generally drier during 600–1400 AD as compared to during 1400–1900 AD. However, such anti-phased hydroclimatic variability is not found in either the cold period of 1–600 AD or in the current warm period of the past century. This indicates that temperature and precipitation/moisture changes appear in multiple combinations. 3) Fluctuations in the intensity and seasonal movement of the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) over the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the associated climate variability modes (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), ENSO, and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)), might be responsible for the spatially complex patterns of climate anomalies over TP during the past 2000 years. 4) The results highlight the need for more high-quality paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental reconstructions that span the past two millennia on the TP. Such reconstructions must have unambiguous climate significance, clear seasonality, site-specific calibration, and robust dating.

Response of bay ostracod assemblages to Late Holocene sea-level, centennial-scale climate, and human-induced factors in northeast Beppu Bay, Japan

This study clarified the centennial-scale changes in meiobenthic bay ostracod assemblages in Japan over the past approximately 3000 years with relation to various human-induced and natural environmental factors. These factors were inferred via integrated multiproxy methods of high-resolution geological analyses of core sediments obtained from a shallow bay off a coastal plain, along with literature surveys of archeological and historical records. Five intervals were defined based on multivariate analyses of ostracod assemblages. The ostracod assemblage was stable before around the 6th century because of aggradational sedimentation related to gradual increases in sea level. Since then, the composite factors such as the development of a sandy spit near the study site, stable sea level, regional tectonics, regional centennial-scale climatic change possibly related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and flood mitigation by human settlement in the coastal plains triggered the formation of tidal flats and subtidal sandy areas with seagrass beds. This has markedly influenced offshore bay ostracod assemblages since around the 12th century. Anthropogenic impacts, such as reclamation and various artificial constructions since the late 20th century caused the disappearance of seagrass beds, input of coarser sediment into offshore bays, and increased nutrient loads. Therefore, ostracod assemblages have changed drastically. Ostracod assemblages near the boundary between land and sea have been affected by multiple complex factors, such as regional climate and depositional and human-induced processes during the Late Holocene.

Publisher’s note

Abstract This study clarified the centennial-scale changes in meiobenthic bay ostracod assemblages in Japan over the past approximately 3000 years with relation to various human-induced and natural environmental factors. These factors were inferred via integrated multiproxy methods of high-resolution geological analyses of core sediments obtained from a shallow bay off a coastal plain, along with literature surveys of archeological and historical records. Five intervals were defined based on multivariate analyses of ostracod assemblages. The ostracod assemblage was stable before around the 6th century because of aggradational sedimentation related to gradual increases in sea level. Since then, the composite factors such as the development of a sandy spit near the study site, stable sea level, regional tectonics, regional centennial-scale climatic change possibly related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and flood mitigation by human settlement in the coastal plains triggered the formation of tidal flats and subtidal sandy areas with seagrass beds. This has markedly influenced offshore bay ostracod assemblages since around the 12th century. Anthropogenic impacts, such as reclamation and various artificial constructions since the late 20th century caused the disappearance of seagrass beds, input of coarser sediment into offshore bays, and increased nutrient loads. Therefore, ostracod assemblages have changed drastically. Ostracod assemblages near the boundary between land and sea have been affected by multiple complex factors, such as regional climate and depositional and human-induced processes during the Late Holocene.

Asynchronous multi-decadal time-scale series of biotic and abiotic responses to precipitation during the last 1300\xa0years

East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)-driven rapid hydroclimatic variation is a crucial factor with major socioeconomic impacts. Nevertheless, decadal- to centennial-scale EASM variability over the last two millennia is still poorly understood. Pollen-based quantitative annual precipitation (PqPann) and annual precipitation reconstructed by artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the period 650–1940 CE were reconstructed from a paleo-reservoir in South Korea. ANNs reconstruction was performed to compensate for a hiatus section. On a decadal timescale, 10 high-precipitation periods were identified, and PqPann and ANNs reconstructions were comparable to local instrumental rainfall and historic drought records. Biotic lags to rapid climatic changes ranging from 25 to 100 years were recognized by asynchronous pollen and speleothem responses to precipitation. We suggest that PqPann-based decadal- to centennial-scale climatic change reconstruction should take biotic lags into account, although the lags can be ignored on the millennial scale. The position of the EASM rainband influenced rainfall magnitude.

Centennial-scale climatic changes in Central China during the Holocene climatic optimum

Our knowledge about climatic changes at centennial-scale and their causes during the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) remains poorly constrained. Here, we present δ18O and δ13C records from a precisely dated stalagmite (13.2 to 1.9 kyr BP) from Xiniu Cave, central China. The δ18O record shows a gradual weakening in the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from early to middle Holocene, corresponding with a decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI). A similar pattern is absent in our δ13C record, and is replaced by persistent centennial-scale oscillations throughout the Holocene. Variations of δ13C reflect changes in vegetation density, soil CO2 production, CO2 degassing, prior calcite precipitation (PCP), and cave ventilation, associated with temperature and rainfall variations at local scale. Based on the δ13C record, three dry/cold events at approximately 6.0, 8.2, and 10.5 kyr BP, can be identified during the HCO (11.1 ± 0.1 to 5.4 ± 0.1 kyr BP), coinciding with the well-known Holocene Bond events. The power spectrum analysis shows that the significant periodicity (843 yr) of the δ13C record within the HCO may be related to the North Atlantic-cycle. Therefore, we speculate that the centennial-scale climatic changes during the HCO probably resulted from cooling in the North Atlantic, and that the intensified and southward Westerly jet played a role in transmitting this signal from high latitudes to central China.

Initial Mediterranean response to major climate reorganization during the last interglacial-glacial transition

Millennial-scale Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) variability at northern high latitudes has influenced climatic and environmental conditions in the Mediterranean during the last glacial period. There is evidence that the hemispheric transmission of the DO variability occurred at the end of DO event 25; however, the exact timing and the trigger that activated the environmental response in the Mediterranean remains incompletely understood. Here, we provide evidence that the clear millennial-scale teleconnection between Greenland and the Mediterranean started at ∼111.4 ka BP and was initiated by a sub-millennial scale cooling in Greenland (GI-25b). High-resolution sediment proxies and the pollen record of Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON), Italy, reflect climatic instability during the last millennium of the last interglacial, which was characterised by a first and short cooling episode (MON 1) at 111.44 ± 0.69 ka BP, coinciding with the Greenland cold sub-event GI-25b in duration and timing (within dating uncertainties). MON and Greenland (NorthGRIP ice core) also agree in recording a subsequent warm rebound phase that abruptly culminated in the stadial MON 2/GS-25, marking the transition into the last glacial period. Our results show that the GI-25b triggered an early environmental response at MON to centennial-scale climate change in Greenland as a prelude to the millennial-scale teleconnection that was maintained during the glacial period.

Decadal- to centennial-scale climate changes over the last 2000 yr recorded from varved sediments of Lake Kusai, northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

AbstractHigh-resolution climate archives of the Late Holocene are essential in the study of paleoclimatic dynamics and for understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic influences on past and future climate changes. Here, we present well-dated X-ray fluorescence scanning records retrieved from a varved sediment core from Lake Kusai. These records show the decadal- to centennial-scale paleoclimatic variability of the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau over the last 2000 yr. Ca is mainly related to the precipitation of authigenic carbonates and is a proxy for temperature changes. The Ca record of Lake Kusai is well-correlated with the variations and periodicities of solar activity. Therefore, solar output can be suggested as being the predominant forcing mechanism of decadal- to centennial-scale temperature fluctuations over the last 2000 yr. The evolution of effective moisture was inferred from the log-ratios of Rb/Sr, which demonstrated synchronous changes with the typical Indian summer monsoon record from Dongge Cave. These results indicate that the decadal- to centennial-scale effective moisture evolution of the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is mainly influenced by the Indian summer monsoon. Additionally, we have not found the evident periodicities of solar activity in our effective moisture record over the last 2000 yr.

Holocene hydro-climatic variability in the Mediterranean: A synthetic multi-proxy reconstruction

Here we identify and analyze proxy data interpreted to reflect hydro-climatic variability over the last 10,000 years from the Mediterranean region to (1) outline millennial and multi-centennial-scale trends and (2) identify regional patterns of hydro-climatic variability. A total of 47 lake, cave, and marine records were transformed to z-scores to allow direct comparisons between sites, put on a common time scale, and binned into 200-year time slices. Six different regions were identified based on numerical and spatial analyzes of z-scores: S Iberia and Maghreb, N Iberia, Italy, the Balkans, Turkey, and the Levant, and the overall hydro-climate history of each region was reconstructed. N Iberia is largely decoupled from the five other regions throughout the Holocene. Wetter conditions occur in the five other regions between 8500 and 6100 yr BP. After 6000 yr BP, climate oscillated until around 3000 ± 300 yr BP, which seems to have been the overall driest period in the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. In contrast, Italy and N Iberia seem to have remained wetter during this period. In addition, non-metric multidimensional scaling (nMDS) was applied to 18 long, continuous climate z-score records that span the majority of the Holocene. nMDS axes 1 and 2 illustrate the main trends in the z-score data. The first axis captures a long-term development of drier condition in the Mediterranean from 7900 to 3700 yr BP. Rapid shifts occur in nMDS axis 2 at 6700–6300 BP, 4500–4300 BP, and 3500–3300 BP indicating centennial-scale climate change. Our synthesis highlights a dominant south/east versus north/west Mediterranean hydro-climate dipole throughout the Holocene and therefore confirms that there was no single climate trajectory characterizing the whole Mediterranean basin during the last 10 millennia.

Global wetland contribution to 2000–2012 atmospheric methane growth rate dynamics

Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999–2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000–2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000–2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr−1 (−0.2–3.5 Tg yr−1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr−1 (−3.2−1.1 Tg yr−1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 ± 22 Tg yr−1. Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.

Solar and tropical ocean forcing of late-Holocene climate change in coastal East Asia

In this study, paleoclimate signals were extracted from high-resolution sediment records very recently produced from the Mulyoungari swamp on Jeju Island, South Korea and examined to determine the main factors driving late Holocene climate change in East Asia. The high resolution of the Mulyoungari records allows the detection of multidecadal to centennial-scale climate change with various cycles. This enables comparisons with important paleoclimate proxies such as total solar irradiation (ΔTSI) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP). Spectral analyses of pollen and magnetic susceptibility (MS) data identify significant periodicities of 780, 470, 135–145, and 50–70years. The Mulyoungari swamp responded sensitively to global climate change during the Holocene, showing well known Holocene cycles in the results. Our tree pollen index of warmness (TPIW) shows important late Holocene cold events associated with low sunspot periods such as Oort, Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder Minimum. Comparisons among standard Z-scores of filtered TPIW, ΔTSI, and other paleoclimate records from central and northeastern China, off the coast of northern Japan, southern Philippines, and Peru all demonstrate significant relationships. This suggests that solar activity drove Holocene variations in both East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, the latter seems to have predominantly controlled the coastal climate of East Asia to the extent that the influence of precession was nearly muted during the late Holocene.

Interactions between climate change and human activities during the early to mid-Holocene in the eastern Mediterranean basins

Abstract. This paper focuses on early Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) records in the Mediterranean zone, which are under-represented in continental archives (9.2 to 8.2 ka events) and on their impact on prehistoric societies. This lack of data handicaps the general interpretation of climate impacts on human societies, which flourished in recent years. Key questions remain about the impact of early Holocene cooling events on the Mediterranean climate, ecosystems and human societies. In this paper, we discuss some examples from river and lake systems from the eastern to central Mediterranean area (central Anatolia, Cyprus, northeastern and northwestern Greece) that illustrate some palaeohydrological and erosion variations that modified the sustainability of the first Neolithic populations in this region. Results allow us to present direct land–sea correlations and to reconstruct regional long-term trends as well as millennial- to centennial-scale climatic changes. In this context, we question the socio-economic and geographical adaptation capacities of these societies (mobility, technology, economic practices, social organisation) during the “early Holocene” interval (11.7 to 8.2 ka), which corresponds partly to the Sapropel 1 deposition in the eastern Mediterranean sea.

Reconstruction of recent climate change in Alaska from the Aurora Peak ice core, central Alaska

Abstract. A 180.17 m ice core was drilled at Aurora Peak in the central part of the Alaska Range, Alaska, in 2008 to allow reconstruction of centennial-scale climate change in the northern North Pacific. The 10 m depth temperature in the borehole was −2.2 °C, which corresponded to the annual mean air temperature at the drilling site. In this ice core, there were many melt–refreeze layers due to high temperature and/or strong insolation during summer seasons. We analyzed stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) and chemical species in the ice core. The ice core age was determined by annual counts of δD and seasonal cycles of Na+, and we used reference horizons of tritium peaks in 1963 and 1964, major volcanic eruptions of Mount Spurr in 1992 and Mount Katmai in 1912, and a large forest fire in 2004 as age controls. Here, we show that the chronology of the Aurora Peak ice core from 95.61 m to the top corresponds to the period from 1900 to the summer season of 2008, with a dating error of ± 3 years. We estimated that the mean accumulation rate from 1997 to 2007 (except for 2004) was 2.04 m w.eq. yr-1. Our results suggest that temporal variations in δD and annual accumulation rates are strongly related to shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI). The remarkable increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s has likely been the result of enhanced storm activity associated with shifts in the PDOI during winter in the Gulf of Alaska.

Centennial-scale monsoon climate fluctuations from a stalagmite record during the mid-Holocene Epoch in Fulu cave of Huaping, Yunnan, China

The mid-Holocene dynamics of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and Indian Monsoon (IM) are important for understanding the Holocene climate system. To clarify the relationship between EAM and IM subsystems during the mid-Holocene, a 2085-year (6,270–4,185 a BP) high-resolution record from stalagmite (FL4) in Yunnan, China was reconstructed using ICP-MS-230Th series dating and carbon and oxygen isotope analysis (δ13C and δ18O). In the study period, successive positive δ18O trends revealed a generally weakening Asian monsoon, with the monsoon climate tending toward gradual drying, especially during three centennial-scale drought events in 6,270–6,126 a BP, 5,347–5,140 a BP, and 4,810–4,620 a BP. On the other hand, the uninterrupted negative trend in δ13C signified natural improvements in vegetation overlying the cave, and a serious deficit (~2.5 ‰) in δ13C during 5,519–5,345 a BP implied a heavy rainfall event, in precise phase with δ18O, demonstrating an enhanced Indian Monsoon subsystem. The dense sawtooth-shaped pattern of the carbon and oxygen isotope records indicates that a series of decadal-scale abrupt climate changes were superimposed on the centennial-scale monsoon climate changes. FL4 stalagmite records in the mid-Holocene reflect a gradually weakening monsoon climate with superimposed decadal–centennial events, but natural improvements in local vegetation through self-adjustment.

High-resolution multi-proxy evidence for millennial- and centennial-scale climate oscillations during the last deglaciation in Jeju Island, South Korea

Millennial- and centennial-scale climate and vegetation changes during the last deglaciation from Hanon Maar paleolake on Jeju Island, South Korea were reconstructed by high-resolution multi-proxy data (pollen, Anhysteretic Remanent Magnetization [ARM], Total Organic Carbon [TOC], Total Nitrogen [TN], Carbon/Nitrogen [C/N] ratio, carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions (δ15N and δ13C), major element geochemistry, and sediment grain size). The resolution of our multi-proxy data was sufficiently high to enable the detection of millennial- and even centennial-scale climate change in the study area during the last deglacial transition. We found centennial-scale cold reversals between 14,650 and 12,900 cal yr BP, possibly corresponding to the Bølling–Allerød [BA] oscillations. Hanon pollen data implied that climate amelioration around 11,900 cal yr BP terminated the Younger Dryas [YD] in the study area and that a cold event around 11,300 cal yr BP probably correlated with the Pre-Boreal Oscillation [PBO] cooling event. Our results indicate that rising summer insolation and northward expanding low-latitudinal warm currents exerted a strong influence on climatological teleconnection via westerlies between the North Atlantic and the East Asian region during the last deglaciation, presumably causing a decoupling between temperature and East Asian Summer Monsoon [EASM] precipitation during the last deglaciation.

Coastal palaeoenvironmental record of the last 7 kyr BP in NW France: Sub-millennial climatic and anthropic Holocene signals

To date, Holocene palaeoecological signatures on the Northwestern coast of France have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, environmental changes related to both climate processes and human disturbances were reconstructed over the last 7000 cal. yr BP, based on pollen and chironomid assemblages from four coastal cores retrieved in Western Brittany (Porsmilin beach, NW France). Pollen and chironomid records show an environmental response to both millennial- and centennial-scale climate changes. During the mid-Holocene (until around 4200 cal. yr BP), when human impact was low, Porsmilin’s landscape was characterized by a mixed oak forest dominated by Corylus trees. Comparison of our data with other palynological data from the NW French Atlantic coast shows that this dominance may be related to more humid conditions prevailing at Porsmilin. Furthermore, over the mid-Holocene, Corylus and Quercus patterns appear anti-correlated, with Quercus declines appearing synchronous with major storms revealed by data recently compiled for the Holocene in Brittany, suggesting that cold conditions probably caused the Quercus contractions, which in turn favoured the rise of the heliophile taxon Corylus. Regarding chironomids over this period, our results show variations in lotic–lentic taxa related to hydrological conditions, more specifically changes in river run off strength. Over the Late Holocene, the Porsmilin palynological record shows progressive vegetation changes mainly related to human settlement and development of agricultural activities.

Centennial-scale Asian monsoon variability during the mid-Younger Dryas from Qingtian Cave, central China

The regional climate correlation within the Northern Hemisphere in the cold/dry mid-Younger Dryas event (YD) remains elusive. A key to unraveling this issue is sufficient knowledge of the detailed climate variability at the low latitudes. Here we present a high-resolution (3-yr) δ18O record of an annually laminated stalagmite from central China that reveals a detailed Asian monsoon (AM) history from 13.36 to 10.99ka. The YD in this record is expressed as three phases, characterized by gradual onsets but rapid ends. During the mid-YD, the AM variability exhibited an increasing trend superimposed by three centennial oscillations, well-correlated to changes in Greenland temperatures. These warming/wetting fluctuations show a periodicity of ~200yr, generally in agreement with centennial changes in cosmogenic nuclides indicated by the 10Be flux from the Greenland ice. This relationship implies that centennial-scale climate changes during the mid-YD are probably caused by solar output and rapidly transported over broad regions through atmosphere reorganization.

Centennial scale climate change in NW Sweden during the mid-late Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical and chironomid data

Centennial scale climate change in NW Sweden during the mid-late Holocene: a reconstruction based on geochemical and chironomid data

Signal and variability within a Holocene peat bog — Chronological uncertainties of pollen, macrofossil and fungal proxies

A single raised bog from the eastern Netherlands has been repeatedly analysed and 14C dated over the past few decades. Here we assess the within-site variability of fossil proxy data through comparing the regional pollen, macrofossils and non-pollen palynomorphs of four of these profiles. High-resolution chronologies were obtained using 14C dating and Bayesian age-depth modelling. Where chronologies of profiles overlap, proxy curves are compared between the profiles using greyscale graphs that visualise chronological uncertainties. Even at this small spatial scale, there is considerable variability of the fossil proxy curves. Implications regarding signal (climate) and noise (internal dynamics) of the different types of fossil proxies are discussed. Single cores are of limited value for reconstructing centennial-scale climate change, and only by combining multiple cores and proxies can we obtain a reliable understanding of past environmental change and possible forcing factors (e.g., solar variability).

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface tempera- tures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for ( 100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism main- tains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simu- lations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to vol- canic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.