Cent Of Vote Research Articles

Ein weiterer Erdrutschsieg: Die britischen Parlamentswahlen vom 4. Juli 2024

After 14 years in opposition, Labour is back in power . A governing party in conflict with itself, big and unresolved economic problems, and a Scottish National Party that managed to steer itself in a political cul-de-sac made change possible . The size of change is not least the result of the first-past-the-post electoral system and its disproportionality effects . These allowed the Labour Party to take 63 .4 per cent of the seats in Parliament with only 33 .7 per cent of votes . The British party system is more divided than ever before . The Liberal Democrats experienced a political comeback as alternative to the Conservatives, and the Green party made progress as an alternative to Labour . Reform UK, the party of the right-wing populist Nigel Farage, came third in the electoral contest with regard to vote totals . The lower turnout is surprising given the broader and stronger competition among parties . It reflects widespread disillusion among voters concerning politics, and the distancing of a growing number of people from the political process .

Has Brexit affected employment in Japanese affiliates in the UK?

AbstractOn 23 June 2016, a referendum was held in the United Kingdom (UK) to decide whether the country should leave or remain a member of the European Union (EU). The ‘Leave’ vote won by 52 per cent to 48 per cent of voters, leading to the EU–UK Withdrawal Agreement that came into force in 2020 and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that came into force in 2021. Brexit is not exclusively a European matter; it affects third parties as well. In this article we examine the presence of Japanese affiliates in Europe during 2000–21 by analysing data obtained from the Toyo Keizai's Overseas Japanese Companies database. While the UK has been a major beneficiary of Japanese investments in Europe, its share of Japanese affiliates in Europe has decreased, especially during 2000–10. Brexit has had no negative impact on direct employment created by Japanese affiliates in the UK in the short term, but its impact in the long term could be exacerbated by any further policy divergence between the UK and the EU.

Parity constitutionalism

AbstractIn 2021, the Chilean Convention became the first constitution-making body with gender parity. However, the draft – which reflected many gender-related norms – was rejected by 61.89 per cent of voters in the exit plebiscite of 2022. In this article, we argue that although parity constitutionalism has promise and, in the Chilean case, was linked to gender-related outcomes in the constitutional text, parity’s promise may fail to materialize. We thus caution against a naïve view of parity constitutionalism as one of the key legacies of the 2020–22 Chilean constitution-making process.

Reassessing Local Candidate Effects

AbstractIn a seminal article published in 2003, Blais et al. demonstrated that local candidates mattered for about 5 per cent of voters in the 2000 Canadian federal election. This study's reliance on a single election raises external validity concerns. We replicate Blais et al.'s original analyses on four elections from 2000 to 2008 using a decade's worth of data from the Canadian Election Study. The local candidate effect first uncovered by Blais et al. is not specific to a single election. Local candidates are a decisive consideration for about 5 to 8 per cent of voters outside Quebec and for about 2 to 5 per cent of voters in Quebec.

‘We Lost on the Numbers, But for Us It's a Victory’: New Caledonia's 2018 Referendum on Self-Determination

ABSTRACTOn 4 November 2018, more than 141,000 voters in New Caledonia went to the polls to determine the political status of the French Pacific dependency. A referendum on self-determination, the culmination of a 20-year transition under the 1998 Noumea Accord, posed the question: ‘Do you want New Caledonia to accede to full sovereignty and become independent?’In an unprecedented turnout, 56.67 per cent of voters decided to remain within the French Republic, while 43.33 per cent voted Yes for independence. These figures, with a clear majority opposing full sovereignty, suggest a setback for New Caledonia's independence coalition Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS). In reality, the size of the Yes vote has disappointed partisans of the French Republic and opened the way for a second referendum in 2020.After briefly outlining the 1998 Noumea Accord, the article details the results and participation rates in the November 2018 vote. It then focuses on different aspects of the referendum campaign, including: the role of opinion polling, administration of the referendum by the French state; disputes over electoral registration; international monitoring; key objectives of the anti-independence parties; grassroots campaigning by the FLNKS and the significance of the youth vote. It flags some issues in the aftermath of the referendum, as New Caledonians prepare for the next local elections to be held on 12 May 2019.

Irish presidential election 2018

ABSTRACTIn late August 2018, Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government Eoghan Murphy set 26 October as the date of Ireland's presidential election. The race took on a decidedly uncompetitive appearance in July 2018 when incumbent Michael D. Higgins finally confirmed he would stand for re-election. He had, in the end, comfortably won the previous contest in 2011, receiving almost 40 per cent of votes on the first count and 57 per cent on the final count [see O’Malley, 2012. Explaining the 2011 Irish presidential election: Culture, valence, loyalty or punishment? Irish Political Studies, 27(4), 635–655]. Polls before the campaign revealed 59–76 per cent of people supported him for a second term, and he occupied a consistently comfortable position in polling carried out during the campaign. In the end, it was neither the unconcerned demeanour of Higgins nor his record-breaking victory that grabbed the headlines. Rather it was the injection of populist discourse into the campaign by candidate Peter Casey and his unanticipated success in garnering nearly a quarter of the vote that shocked the race out of its perfunctory rhythm. The nomination of candidates by councils, the negative campaigning against the incumbent and the populist discourse of Casey became the talking points of what was otherwise thought to promise a dreary foregone conclusion.

Local Candidate Effects in Canadian Elections

AbstractWhat impact do local candidates have on elections in single member district plurality electoral systems? We provide new evidence using data from a large election study carried out during the 2015 Canadian federal election. We improve on the measurement of local candidate effects by asking over 20,000 survey respondents to rate the candidates in their constituencydirectly. We present three estimates. We find that when all voters are considered together, local candidate evaluations are decisive for approximately 4 per cent of voters. Second, these evaluations are decisive for the outcome of 10 per cent of constituency contests. Third, when models are estimated for each constituency, we find significant evaluation effects for 14 per cent of candidates.

Who cares about defence?: attitudes of Australian voters and of candidates in federal elections

Terrorism and global insecurity present Australia with a number of defence challenges: are Australian voters and election candidates concerned? Survey data, drawn mainly from the 2004 Australian Election Study, show that around half the electorate want to boost defence, ten per cent believe we are secure and any increase is unnecessary, while around one third take a nonchalant attitude. They are unsure whether Australia can be defended (or are certain that it cannot be) but are not inclined to take further action. Candidates standing for election to the federal parliament are even less likely to want to boost defence, and more likely to display a nonchalant attitude. A surprisingly high proportion of Australians, and their potential leaders, take this attitude. In 2004, 36 per cent of voters and 48 per cent of candidates were not sure that Australia could defend itself but, despite this, did not want to spend more on defence.

The 2007 Australian Election: Blue-collar Voters, Migrants and the Environment

The 2007 Australian Election Study shows that many blue-collar voters, the so-called Howard battlers, returned to Labor. Combined with earlier surveys it also shows that non-English-speaking-background migrants have consistently been more likely to vote Labor than the Australia-born. They were particularly likely to do so in 2007, especially if they were in blue-collar occupations. The Howard Government's Work Choices legislation probably played a role in these outcomes. However, the data also show that Labor's environmental policy also played an important part. Thirty five per cent of voters were influenced by an environmental issue during the campaign, more than were affected by any other set of issues. Concern about the environment is spread across all occupational groups, though it is rather more pronounced among professionals.

When Valence Crushes: Explaining the Electoral Failure of the German FDP in the 2013 Election

This paper examines why the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) failed to gain electoral success in 2013 despite being well positioned in terms of left–right ideology. Indeed, its vote share dropped from its highest ever point in 2009 (14.6 per cent of the national vote) to its lowest ever in 2013 (4.8 per cent of the vote). The paper shows that the FDP’s valence dropped dramatically between 2009 and 2013. In addition, voting simulations show that the FDP was positioned close to its vote-maximising positions on policy and ideology. However, given the FDP’s extremely low valence it could not have taken any set of policy positions that would have significantly increased its vote share.

Ordering Peace: Thailand's 2016 Constitutional Referendum

Thailand’s August 2016 constitutional referendum marked the second occasion on which a military junta has sought popular endorsement to legitimize its efforts to reform the country’s political system. As in the previous referendum of August 2007, Thai voters endorsed military plans to reduce levels of democracy. Draconian moves by the regime curtailed open debate about the content of the draft constitution, which virtually nobody had read. Partly as a result of the junta’s suppression of dissent, “No” votes declined — but the draft charter was still opposed by almost 40 per cent of voters, testifying to continuing high levels of political polarization along regional lines. This article argues that the referendum process may have helped the military to impose order on Thai society during the difficult period of royal transition, but did not create any genuine peace between the country’s fractious competing groups and interests.

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 European Election in Spain

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) election in Spain took place in a context of deep economic recession and distrust of political institutions. These conditions triggered an unprecedented electoral response through which Podemos, a radical leftist party created shortly before the election, obtained eight per cent of votes and gained electoral momentum thereafter, seriously threatening the two-party-plus system. Using data from a panel survey, our analyses reveal some unexpected findings. The intensity of protest voting and the timing of the contest within the national electoral cycle have had a major impact on national politics – with the possibility of eventually producing a party-system change.

The Children's Referendum 2012

On Saturday, 10 November 2012, the Irish electorate voted to accept a proposed amendment to the Constitution of Ireland which would strengthen the constitutional rights of children. The 31st Amendment was passed by a margin of 16 per cent, with 58 per cent of voters in favour and 42 per cent against. The result was much closer than initially expected. It was hoped that holding the referendum on a Saturday would boost electoral participation, particularly among young people, but turnout on the day proved disappointingly low at 33.5 per cent. This report provides an account of the 2012 Children's Referendum campaign and result. It begins by summarising the context behind the referendum and then outlines the key issues, events and players in the campaign. After mapping the national result, the paper draws on market research to understand the various factors grounding voter choice and turnout. The report concludes with an explanation as to the current legal standing of the amendment following a petition to the High Court to have the result annulled.

Report: The Children's Referendum 2012

On Saturday, 10 November 2012, the Irish electorate voted to accept a proposed amendment to the Constitution of Ireland which would strengthen the constitutional rights of children. The 31st Amendment was passed by a margin of 16 per cent, with 58 per cent of voters in favour and 42 per cent against. The result was much closer than expected. It was hoped that holding the referendum on a Saturday would boost electoral participation, particularly among young people, but turnout on the day proved disappointingly low at 33.5 per cent. This report provides a detailed overview of the 2012 Children’s Referendum campaign and result. It begins by summarising the context behind the referendum and then outlines the key issues, events and players of the campaign. After mapping the national result, the paper draws on market research to understand the various factors grounding voter choice and turnout intentions. The report concludes with an explanation as to the current legal standing of the amendment following a petition to the High Court to have the result annulled.

STV GOES TARTAN: A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ITS USE IN THE 2007 SCOTTISH LOCAL ELECTIONS

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. A commission established jointly by the Scottish Executive and the Scotland Office to consider the implications of having different boundaries for Scottish Parliament and House of Commons elections also gave serious consideration to recommending STV (Arbuthnott 2006 Arbuthnott, Sir J. chmn. 2006. Putting citizens first: Boundaries, voting and representation in Scotland, Edinburgh: The Stationery Office. [Google Scholar]). However, it eventually came down in favour of trying to improve the existing AMS system rather than switching to STV at this stage at least. 2. However, we should note that the incidence of spoilt votes fell back to 2.1 per cent in the 2005 Northern Irish elections, which were once again held on the same day as a UK general election (Electoral Office for Northern Ireland 2005 electoral office for northern ireland. 2005. General statistics, 2005 local government election Available online at www.eoni.org.uk [Google Scholar]). 3. In contrast the introduction of a new ballot paper for the Scottish Parliament election caused considerable confusion. No less than 4 per cent of the constituency votes and a little under 3 per cent of the list votes cast in that election were ruled invalid (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6637387.stm). 4. For example, in the 2001 general election, just 0.3 per cent of the votes in Scotland were ruled invalid, and in 2005, 0.4 per cent. In the first two Scottish Parliament elections these figures were 0.4 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively (Curtice and Fisher 2003 Curtice, J. and Fisher, S. 2003. Scottish Parliament Election 2003: Analysis of turnout, Edinburgh: Electoral Commission. Available online at www.electoralcommission.org.uk [Google Scholar]; Rallings and Thrasher 2005 Rallings, C. and Thrasher, M. 2005. The 2005 general election: Analysis of the results, London: Electoral Commission. Available online at www.electoralcommission.org.uk [Google Scholar]). 5. The author is conducting a survey based study of voting behaviour in the local and parliamentary election in collaboration with David McCrone (Edinburgh) and Michael Marsh (Trinity College, Dublin) as part of the 2007 Scottish Social Attitudes survey.

Chronicle of a death foretold? understanding the decline of fine gael

Since its highpoint in the early 1980s, when under Garret FitzGerald, Fine Gael received almost 40 per cent of the first preference vote and took the party to within five seats of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael's electoral support has declined significantly and steadily to a stage where in 2002 they received little over 20 per cent of the vote. We examine some hypothesised causes of this decline, including the effect of the arrival of the PDs, and Ireland's new coalition politics since 1989. We adapt Peter Mair's hypothesis that ‘coalitionability’ would strengthen Fianna Fáil, to argue that it has also caused the decline of Fine Gael by making the party less relevant to voters who wish to influence the formation of a government. This had the effect of allowing parties such as the PDs to continue to take support from Fine Gael. We offer empirical evidence to support this claim.

Faction versus Ideology: Mobilization Strategies in Taiwan's Elections

On 2 December 1989, voters on Taiwan cast ballots to elect national legislators(lifaweiyuan), provincial and city representatives(sheng/shiyiyuari)and county executives(xianzhang). Though the Nationalist Party (KMT) received 59 per cent of the overall vote, the election was widely viewed as a surprising success for the fledgling opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), since the KMT had polled over 70 per cent of the vote in all previous elections. James Soong, Secretary-General of the KMT, announced after an emergency meeting of the shocked KMT leadership, “We calmly accept an upset.”

The 1992 US Elections

The American Elections This Year Overturned conventional expectations. In March 1991 President Bush — leader of the free world during the fall of the Berlin wall and winner of the Gulf war — seemed invincible. With the troops home in victory parades, Bush's approval rating stood at 88 per cent in Gallup polls. Few thought he could lose against Governor Clinton, dogged by questions about the draft and marital fidelity, perceived as a second-rank Democratic contender from a small southern state. Yet President Bush won 37.7 per cent, the lowest share of the popular vote of any incumbent president since William Taft in 1912. Against most predictions, 19 per cent of the vote went to Ross Perot, the best result for a third party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt. Governor Clinton enjoyed a comfortable victory, with 43.2 per cent of the popular vote and 370 electoral college votes in 32 states. The result for Clinton was not a landslide, indeed his share of the popular vote was similar to Mondale's in 1984 and Carter's in 1980, and less than Dukakis's in 1988. But questions about a popular mandate are academic: Democrats now control both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, and almost two-thirds of governorships and state legislative chambers.

The Israeli general election of 1992

The 23 June elections for Israel’s thirteenth Knesset ended in what Israelis called a ‘mahapach’-an upheaval. The Labour Party recaptured its pivotal position in the Knesset. For the first time since the December 1973 Knesset elections, Labour and the more ‘dovish’ parties gained a majority in the Knesset-together controlling 61 out of the 120 seats. The Likud, which led the government prior to the elections, the more hawkish parties and the religious parties won only 59 seats. Of those eligible to vote 2,637,943 out of 3,409,015 participated in the elections. It was the first time since the establishment of the state of Israel that the number of eligible voters exceeded three million. Ten per cent of the electorate consisted of young voters who reached voting age (18) only after the elections to the twelfth Knesset. Nine per cent of the eligible voters were new immigrants most of whom came to Israel from the USSR (and its successors) after the November 1988 elections. Turnout reached 77.4 per cent compared with 79.7 per cent in the 1988 elections, 2,616,841 valid votes were distributed among 25 ‘lists-of-candidates’, 0.8 per cent of the votes were invalid (1.0 per cent in 1988). Israel continued to employ an extreme PR electoral system, using a single nationwide constituency and implementing the Hagenbach-Bischoff formula in order to determine the exact number of seats to be allocated to each of the competing ‘strict-lists’. The threshold was raised from 1.0 per cent, used in all previous elections, to 1.5 per cent of the valid votes. This pushed several small parties to unite before the elections, 5.0 per cent of the valid votes, however, were given to parties that did not pass the threshold (2.4 per cent in 1988). The Labour Party adopted a series of reforms prior to the elections. Thus, more than 100,000 party members took part in its primaries in which the candidate for premiership and its Knesset candidates were elected. Labour signed a surplus agreement with the more dovish Meretz. Meretz is a combination of the CRM, Mapam and Shinui, all of which had participated separately in 1988. To the ‘left’ of Meretz are the three Arab-supported parties, the communist-led Democratic Front for Peace and Equality (Hadash), the Progressive List and the Arab Democratic List (ADL) which ran separately as they did in 1988. The Likud reached the peak of its popularity towards the end of 1991 with Israel’s participation in the Madrid peace conference. Later, however, its popularity decreased considerably. In the process of selecting its candidates for premiership *The study was made possible (in parts) by the Charles H. Revson Foundation. It was carried out within the framework of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies. The statements made and the views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.

Elections in Algeria

On June 12 Algeria's first free elections since independence in 1962 were held, for the local and regional councils. According to official government figures, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) took control of 55 per cent of the 1,500 local councils, with 54.3 per cent of the vote, and two thirds of the 48 regions (wilayat), with 57.4 per cent of the vote. The National Liberation Front (FLN), which has ruled Algeria as the single recognised political party since independence, retained control of only 32 per cent of the local councils and only 14 wilayat, with 28.1 per cent and 27.5 per cent respectively. In every major city Algiers, Oran, Constantine and in many of the others, the FLN was crushed. One of the few large towns that did not fall to the FIS was Tizi-Ouzou, in Kabylia; but that was taken by the Berber nationalist RCD. The official results showed that independents had won 11.7 per cent of the municipal votes, the Assembly for Culture and Democracy (RCD), 2.1 per cent, and the National Party for Solidarity and Development (PNSD), 1.6 per cent. Between 60 and 65 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote, and although it is impossible to be certain how many of those abstaining did so for political reasons it is probable that a large proportion were heeding the abstention calls from two of the main opposition groups former president Ahmed Ben Bella's Movement for Democracy in Algeria (MDA) and Hocine Ait Ahmed's Socialist Forces Front (FFS). Much of the FFS support comes from Berbers (its leader Ait Ahmed is one himself), and the RCD victory in Tizi-Ouzou was based on the lowest turnout (20 per cent) in the country. There had been other indications of support for FFS too; of the four great marches through Algiers before the elections, that of the FFS supporters was the largest.