Census Years Research Articles

Leveraging Full Count Census Data through Record Linkage

Academic researchers in the U.S. and Canada have partnered with genealogical organizations and statistical agencies to create massive new scientific data collections from census enumerations. These data are creating new opportunities for research across the social and health sciences. By linking individuals and families across censuses, analysts can create national longitudinal panels that trace the characteristics of individuals over their lives and families over multiple generations. IPUMS disseminates full count census enumerations for ten U.S. census years from 1850 to 1950. These full count data cover almost 800 million individual records and the IPUMS Multigenerational Longitudinal Panel (MLP) project links individuals' records across censuses. IPUMS data can be combined with data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s data linkage infrastructure to link historical records to numerous recent censuses, surveys and administrative data that measure social, economic and health outcomes. The Canadian Peoples (TCP) is a comprehensive public research database of 40 million coded and georeferenced records found in Canadian censuses from the middle of the nineteenth century until after the First World War. The data include personal, family and household characteristics of every individual enumerated in each census from 1852 to 1921. TCP investigators are exploring record linkage technology to solve challenges presented with these historical records. The workshop included one presentation from each organization, with these objectives: introduce the data collections, explain the challenges and opportunities of census linkage, describe the linking strategies, and provide an overview on how to access the data.

The Paradox of Black Incomes in Puerto Rico in the Early Decades of U.S. Colonialism

AbstractThis paper examines racial income inequality in early twentieth-century Puerto Rico. It finds, surprisingly, that Black men had an income advantage relative to White and Mulatto men in 1910–1920. The effect of race on income in Puerto Rico was smaller than that of other covariates such as urban status, sex, and literacy. A comparison with the state of Louisiana and with the United States as a whole in the same Census years shows that Puerto Rico was exceptional by U.S. standards, displaying much lower levels of racial inequality. Most of the income advantage Black men had can be attributed to the fact that they were more urban than Mulatto or White men, but part of this surprising advantage can be attributed to the existence in the countryside of a layer of skilled Black workers. Overall, Black men had equal or slightly higher occupational scores than Whites. The coexistence of slavery with other forms of coerced labor affecting individuals of all races in the nineteenth century, as well as the emergence of a stratum of Black skilled workers which survived into the twentieth century and thrived economically when the sugar industry experienced an explosive boom after 1898, is at the root of Black income equalization in the Puerto Rican countryside and in the island as a whole during the early twentieth century.

Brotherhood and unity: ethnic diversity and economic performance in socialist Yugoslavia

AbstractLiterature on economic consequences of ethnic diversity suggests that ethnic diversity impedes economic growth in dictatorships, while inclusive policies may foster economic benefits from diversity. This paper investigates the impact of ethnic diversity on municipal economic growth in socialist Yugoslavia, a distinctive context due to its dictatorial regime’s active promotion of ethnic inclusion. Utilizing novel estimations of economic performance for 498 municipalities across the census years 1961, 1971, and 1981, the analysis based on seemingly unrelated regressions model reveals that higher ethnic diversity, measured through an ethnic fractionalization index is associated with slower economic growth of Yugoslav municipalities. The study is the first quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of ethnic diversity in Yugoslavia and provides nuanced insights into the effectiveness of inclusive policies, suggesting that while such policies may foster economic benefits, they might not fully counteract the economic drawbacks of ethnic diversity under dictatorship and in an economy that is not primarily driven by market forces.

Abstract A050: The impact of air pollution on aggressive breast cancer prognoses in women of African descent

Abstract Significance. Breast cancer (BC) is the most diagnosed cancer among women in the US. Though highly heterogeneous, different subtypes can be characterized by the expression of membrane receptors on the cell surface: ER+, HER2+, PR+, or basal-like which does not express any of the three receptors. Basal-like triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a highly aggressive subtype of BC that represents about 15% of overall BC cases. Black women disproportionately experience higher rates of early-onset TNBC phenotypes and worse prognoses when compared to White women. Though genetics is a key factor in oncogenesis and cancer progression, it is now widely recognized that differences in cancer outcomes are influenced, also, by various environmental, social, and lifestyle factors known collectively as the social determinants of health (SDOH). For example, air pollution has consistently been shown to be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, however, little is known about how air pollution alters biological and molecular mechanisms impacting breast cancer progression. Elucidating these influential factors is critical to understanding and addressing disparate outcomes. We are interested in understanding how air pollution impacts immune-oncology related proteins in breast cancer, specifically for Black and White women living in Baltimore City, Maryland. Methods. In a cohort of 217 women (142 Black, 75 White), we performed statistical analyses to determine the correlation between particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) with breast cancer subtype and oncogenic molecular drivers within the tumor and its microenvironment. PM2.5 concentration for Census year 2000 was measured using the EPA Downscale Model. Concentrations at the census-tract level were then linked to each participant's geocoded residential address at study baseline. Results. [BJ1] Our data reveal that a higher exposure to PM2.5 is correlated with breast cancer subtypes incidences[BJ2] (p- value[BJ3] =0.051), specifically for hormone receptor positive (ER+ and/or PR+) and TNBC subtypes (p-value=0.035). Elevated air pollution is also associated with estrogen-receptor status overall (p-value=0.002) and in Black (p-value=0.043) and White (p-value=0.008) women in the stratified analysis. Serum protein measurements in this cohort also revealed significant relationships between elevated air pollution and immune-oncology related proteins, including PD-L1, CAIX, CXCL9, and MCP-2.Discussion. Our preliminary evidence reveals an association between air pollution, breast cancer subtypes, and immune-oncology related proteins, with some of these relationships affecting Black and White populations differently. We will continue to interrogate these differences and begin to reveal the underlying mechanisms exacerbating breast cancer disparities. Citation Format: Kayla S. Ingram, Brittany Jenkins-Lord. The impact of air pollution on aggressive breast cancer prognoses in women of African descent [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A050.

Is foster caring associated with an earlier transition to adulthood for caregivers’ own children? ONS Longitudinal Study

This study investigates whether existing children in a fostering household differ from young people in non-caregiving households in the timing of their transitions to key adult roles, known to affect later health and life chances. Using data from the ONS Longitudinal Study, we pooled records from census years 1971–2001 and linked them to follow-up records from 1981–2011. We identified 2,656 children living with a foster child and compared their profiles on the ‘big five’ transitions to roles of adulthood – finishing school, leaving home, finding work and becoming financially independent, getting married and having children – with those of other children without a foster child in the household (N = 209,453). We fitted logistic and multinomial models that controlled for childhood socioeconomic and demographic confounders to estimate the proportion achieving the five roles in early adulthood. When compared to those without a foster child in the household, a modest but reliably higher proportion of caregivers’ children achieved the transition to adulthood. There was some evidence that caregivers’ children might cope better with the transition to adulthood if they were older than the foster child or were female. The findings suggest that supporting foster parents with delaying their children’s transition to adulthood could become part of the role of supervising social workers.

"Beyond the Industrial Enclave: Analysing the Spatial and Socio-Economic Impact of Pithampur Automobile Cluster, India "

Industries are considered engines of growth for an economy. Developing countries like India have attempted to boost economic growth by initiating industrialization in areas unsuitable for industrial growth. Most studies on industries/industrial clusters focus on their financial performance, backward and forward linkages, and managing the supply and demand chains, rather than the socioeconomic and spatial influence on their locations and surrounding regions. Such studies are critical in determining which industry contributes to regional growth and what their spatial influences are. This paper contributes to this domain of research. In this study, the Pithampur Automobile Cluster (PAC) is examined. It was developed by the Government in 1984 with the intent to develop a backward area in the state of Madhya Pradesh in India. The study aims to discern PAC’s influence on its surroundings, encompassing Pithampur town, adjacent villages, and towns within a 12–15-kilometer radius. Data from multiple census years (1981, 1991, 2001, 2011) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Analysis through GIS for the years 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 are employed. Contrary to expectations, the study reveals that the impact of industrial development is primarily confined to the boundaries of Pithampur, with surrounding villages showing relative detachment. The emergence of growth corridors is attributed to the appeal of neighbouring towns that offer better amenities and a more economically viable living environment.

New York state, regional and county level nitrogen and phosphorus balances for harvested cropland

New York (NY) state is one of five states that collectively produce >50% of the annual milk supply within the United States. The local environment allows farmers to integrate crop and livestock systems, facilitating cycling of manure nutrients back to cropland. Thus, dairy provides NY with benefits, opportunities, and challenges in terms of environmental sustainability, climate resiliency, and a circular agricultural economy. Improved balancing of crop nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) needs and supply with manure and fertilizer, is key for a circular agricultural economy. The objectives of this study were to calculate and evaluate (1) regional and county level N and P balances of harvested cropland; and (2) contribution of manure to a circular agricultural economy for NY. Nutrient balances were calculated for 2017 (most recent Census year) as the difference in the amount of nutrient input through purchased fertilizer and recoverable manure, and the amount removed in harvested crops. Atmospheric N deposition and legume N fixation, and manure nutrient losses during collection, transfer, storage, and treatment were estimated too. The 2017 P balance was 10 kg P ha−1 (9 lb. P ac−1). The N balance was between 39 kg N ha−1 (35 lb. N ac−1) and 95 kg N ha−1 (85 lb. N ac−1), depending on the proportion of legume cropland assumed to receive manure. Redistribution and application of manure to meet P-removal on non-legume cropland only leaves a surplus of 3 kg P ha−1 (3 lb. P ac−1). Applying surplus manure to legume and non-legume cropland results in a slight, state-level, P deficit. In both scenarios, the large N deficit that cannot be met through legume N fixation alone indicates purchased fertilizer is required. These results show NY’s ability to capitalize on the value of manure without excessive risk to the environment. Greater circularity of agricultural production in NY will need to consider benefits and trade-offs of applying manure to legume cropland. As milk production increases in the state, implementation of advanced manure treatment, storage, and manure application and livestock feeding practices will be needed to increase the circularity and sustainability of the agricultural sector in NY.

Who are small-scale food producers in Italy? Comparisons among different approaches

The question “What is a small-scale producer?” keeps receiving different answers depending on the context in which is posed. Alternative ways of defining smallholders reflect heterogeneous historical and institutional eco-systemic contexts and depend upon what is the role of small-scale agriculture in the rural economy. This has become a pressing issue given the need to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which refers to “small” farmers. Two important related issues are: 1) the adoption of a specific and robust definition of small-scale food producer (SSFP) and 2) the empirical implementation of this definition to determine the SSFPs. The calculations require suitable databases with microdata at the level of individual farms. Based on the 2020 agricultural census results, we identified the small food producers in Italy. We also proposed and compared other approaches to identify SSFPs, that are simpler than that proposed by the FAO and could also be calculated for other census years. Since revenues are not available for every farm – even the census did not collect this information – the standard indicator of production was used instead of revenues to identify SSFPs.

United States Senate malapportionment: A geographical investigation

This study is a geographical investigation of malapportionment in the United States Senate, using national-level tables and graphs for all census years from 1790 through 2020, and state-level maps for census years 1790, 1820, 1920, and 2020. Senate malapportionment is found to have worsened over time, with geographically varying manifestations. The article proposes an expansion of the Senate using the Method of Equal Proportions, which would considerably diminish the degree of malapportionment if adopted.

Social Networks and Brexit: Evidence from a Trade Shock

Regional exposure to Chinese import competition has often been linked to support for the Leave option in the 2016 UK EU membership referendum. Looking at 143 harmonised International Territorial Level 3 (ITL3) regions covering England and Wales, and using data on the density of online social ties between them, I show that regional support for leaving the EU was also associated with exposure in socially connected regions. I first delineate 18 commuting zones based on interregional flows over three Census years. For each region, I then construct a measure of own exposure to Chinese import competition and a measure of exposure in a set of social neighbours located outside its commuting zone. Exploiting variation within commuting zones, and using an instrumental variable approach, I find that the two measures have comparable positive effects on the regional share of the Leave vote. In a series of checks, I do not find evidence that the effect of social neighbours’ exposure is driven by an economic channel or a relationship between import competition and social ties. I also corroborate the regional results using survey data on vote choice. I interpret these findings as indicative of social spillovers between local labour markets: information flows from social neighbours are a likely channel behind the estimated spillover effects on voting outcomes.

Semantically Interoperable Census Data: Unlocking the Semantics of Census Data Using Ontologies and Linked Data

The Canadian Census of Population is a survey that collects statistical information on the Canadian population. These censuses contain valuable socioeconomic data that is often used by both the public and private sectors for project planning and decision-making. However, there are a few issues that may arise when using census data. Firstly, data wrangling, which is often a time-consuming process, needs to be conducted in order to clean and prepare the data for integration and use. Secondly, different datasets across different census years may be using different terms to describe the same concept/entity, hence creating a problem of referential equivalence (i.e., how do we know whether two different datasets are referring to the same concepts/entities?). Lastly, the data found in a census is often described using natural language that isn't easily interpreted by machines and can be difficult to break down or deconstruct. In this paper, we develop and propose the use of an ontology for representing the data from the Canadian Census of Population as linked data in order to address the aforementioned issues, evaluate the ontology using competency questions based on real world use cases, and discuss the advantages of census linked data for integration and visualisation uses.

Community structure, population dynamics and biomass estimation of Bombacaceae in the 50 ha plot at Pasoh Forest Reserve, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia

A study was carried out to determine the population dynamics and biomass estimation of Bombacaceae in the 50 ha plot at Pasoh Forest Reserve, Negeri Sembilan. Census data for the year 1985, 1990, 1990, 2000 and 2005 were obtained from the Forest Research Institute Malaysia, Kepong. The study was mainly focused on data of the year 2005. Nevertheless, comparisons between each census year were carried out to observe variations between each census. Based on the 2005 data, a total of 1,152 stems of Bombacaceae was recorded, representing three genera and five species. Durio recorded the highest number of stems with 950 individuals. The species with the highest total number of individuals was Durio griffithii with 781 individuals. Tree class size of 1.0–9.9 cm, consisting of 840 stems, accounted for 72.92% of the total abundance. The growth rate was 0.06 cm/year and the total basal area measured 0.19 m2/ha. Through distribution pattern analysis using Morisita’s Index of Dispersion (Id), Bombacaceae shows a clustered pattern distribution, with value Id = 11.46. The stimation of biomass for the year 2005 was at 2.24 t/ha, with above ground biomass at 1.98 t/ha and below ground biomass at 0.27 t/ha. Durio has the highest biomass with an estimation 2.09 t/ha, while Durio griffithii contributed to an estimated 1.01 t/ha of the biomass. A total of 237 stems were found dead (12 stems/year) and 118 new recruitments (6 stems/year) had been recorded.

Assessing the impact of socio-demographics and farming activity on ward-level mortality patterns using farm and population decennial censuses.

Farmers experience a specific set of unique dangers, which increases their risk of mortality compared with any other occupation. This study hypothesised that Northern Ireland's (NIs) agriculturally saturated Wards have a higher risk of mortality compared against non-agriculturally based Wards. The Population Census and Farm Census information were downloaded from the Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Service (NINIS) online depository to compile three mortality-based data sets (2001, 2011, pooled data sets). Assessing the impact of socio-demographics and farming activity on Ward-level mortality patterns using farm and population decennial censuses. This study analysed all 582 Ward areas of NI, which enclosed the entire populace of the country in 2001 and 2011. Path analysis was utilised to examine direct and indirect paths linked with mortality within two census years (2001; 2011), alongside testing pathways for invariance between census years (pooled data set). Ward-level results provided evidence for exogenous variables to mortality operating through three/four endogenous variables via: (i) direct effects (age), (ii) summed indirect effects (age; males; living alone; farming profit; and deprivation) and (iii) total effects (age; males; living alone; and deprivation). Multi-group results cross-validated these cause-and-effect relationships relating to mortality. This study demonstrated that farming intensity scores, farming profits and socio-demographics' influence on mortality risk in a Ward were dependent on the specific social-environmental characteristics within that area. In line with earlier area level research, results support the aggregated interpretation that higher levels of farming activity within a Ward increase the risk of mortality within those Wards of NI. This was an essential study to enable future tailoring of new strategies and upgrading of current policies to bring about significant mortality risk change at local level.

Market-based Estimation of Average Electricity Outage Costs in the United States

Electricity outage cost (EOC) estimates ($ per kWh unserved) are essential input data for optimal reliability planning and efficient pricing of electricity services. Based on the 2019-2020 market data published by two US government agencies for the lower 48 states, this paper’s EOC estimates by census region and year are median values of $1.39 to $2.93 per kWh unserved, well below the estimate of $9 per kWh unserved adopted by Texas for optimal reliability planning. The policy implications of adopting our lower EOC estimate are (a) a reduction in an electric grid’s optimal planning reserve to improve the grid’s cost efficiency; and (b) a decline in the grid’s marginal cost-based retail price to encourage welfare-enhancing end-use consumption.

New evidence of the driving forces behind Brazil's agricultural TFP growth—A stochastic frontier analysis with climatic variables and land suitability index

AbstractUsing panel data from 510 Brazilian micro‐regions in three census years (1995, 2006 and 2017), this study presents a productivity decomposition for the Brazilian agricultural sector using stochastic production frontier methods that account for the effects of rainfall, temperature and the land suitability index. We also calculated the total factor productivity (TFP) index and decomposed it into technical efficiency, technological change, scale efficiency and environmental efficiency. This article thus provides a new and more realistic assessment of recent Brazilian agricultural productivity growth. In recent decades, Brazilian agriculture has become widely known for presenting fast productivity growth; however, our results suggest that a lower TFP growth rate than previous estimates (1.96% per annum) and the overall effects of climate change could potentially compromise Brazilian agricultural TFP growth in the long run. Our findings might thus generate insights for agricultural and regional policies to increase efficiency in the sector and promote sustainable agricultural development in Brazil, which will contribute to the sector's competitiveness in international markets, the country's social and economic welfare, and environmental conservancy.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadians: a modelling study.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model. We combined country-specific prevalence estimates with Canadian Census data from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to estimate the overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadian residents. The estimated overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born people in Canada was 25% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 20%-35%) for census year 2001, 24% (95% UI 20%-33%) for 2006, 23% (95% UI 19%-30%) for 2011, 22% (95% UI 19%-28%) for 2016 and 22% (95% UI 19%-27%) for 2021. The prevalence increased with age at migration and incidence of tuberculosis in the country of origin. In 2021, the estimated prevalence of infection among foreign-born residents was lowest in Quebec (19%, 95% UI 16%-24%) and highest in Alberta (24%, 95% UI 21%-28%) and British Columbia (24%, 95% UI 20%-30%). Among all foreign-born Canadian residents with tuberculosis infection in 2021, we estimated that only 1 in 488 (95% UI 185-1039) had become infected within the 2 preceding years. About 1 in 4 foreign-born Canadian residents has tuberculosis infection, but very few were infected within the 2 preceding years (the highest risk period for progression to tuberculosis disease). These data may inform future tuberculosis infection screening policies.

The socioeconomic trajectories of New Zealand's diverse language communities: A longitudinal perspective

AbstractThe extent of demographic diversity in some migrant‐receiving countries has led to the formation of majority‐minority (or superdiverse) cities, a phenomenon also found in New Zealand. Recognising that demographic diversity is dynamic, sensitive to mobility patterns and shifts in socioeconomic indicators, this study examines diversity through the lens of common (nonofficial) languages (n = 21), by employing customised census data spanning five consecutive census years (1996–2018) that provides insights into ethnicity, religion, education, employment, income, and residential density. Considerable variation was found in the identification with one or more religious and ethnic attributes; while some language speaker groups (LSGs) displayed a strong, stable identification, other cases were characterised by fluctuations and mobility. Similarly, considerable differences between LSGs were found with respect to education, employment and income, which can partially be explained by selective migration. Finally, residential density has increased in secondary cities, particularly among LSGs with more dynamic socioeconomic indicators. The analysis, informed by the different migration histories and settlement experiences of the LSGs, contributes to understanding the dynamic quality of diversity indicators and the relative socioeconomic im/mobility of some groups, and demonstrates how the concepts of superdiversity and hyper‐selectivity can be operationalised.

Measuring unequal distribution of pandemic severity across census years, variants of concern and interventions

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic stressed public health systems worldwide due to emergence of several highly transmissible variants of concern. Diverse and complex intervention policies deployed over the last years have shown varied effectiveness in controlling the pandemic. However, a systematic analysis and modelling of the combined effects of different viral lineages and complex intervention policies remains a challenge due to the lack of suitable measures of pandemic inequality and nonlinear effects.MethodsUsing large-scale agent-based modelling and a high-resolution computational simulation matching census-based demographics of Australia, we carried out a systematic comparative analysis of several COVID-19 pandemic scenarios. The scenarios covered two most recent Australian census years (2016 and 2021), three variants of concern (ancestral, Delta and Omicron), and five representative intervention policies. We introduced pandemic Lorenz curves measuring an unequal distribution of the pandemic severity across local areas. We also quantified pandemic biomodality, distinguishing between urban and regional waves, and measured bifurcations in the effectiveness of interventions.ResultsWe quantified nonlinear effects of population heterogeneity on the pandemic severity, highlighting that (i) the population growth amplifies pandemic peaks, (ii) the changes in population size amplify the peak incidence more than the changes in density, and (iii) the pandemic severity is distributed unequally across local areas. We also examined and delineated the effects of urbanisation on the incidence bimodality, distinguishing between urban and regional pandemic waves. Finally, we quantified and examined the impact of school closures, complemented by partial interventions, and identified the conditions when inclusion of school closures may decisively control the transmission.ConclusionsPublic health response to long-lasting pandemics must be frequently reviewed and adapted to demographic changes. To control recurrent waves, mass-vaccination rollouts need to be complemented by partial NPIs. Healthcare and vaccination resources need to be prioritised towards the localities and regions with high population growth and/or high density.

Occupational class differences in male suicide risk in Finland from 1970 to 2019.

In the last few decades, suicide rates have decreased in most European countries. However, periodic changes in risk by occupational class have not been studied as much in detail. Representative cohorts of Finnish working-age men were followed for nine years on suicide mortality starting from five different census years (1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010). Each cohort included between 300 970 and 332 318 men. Cox regression modelling was used to estimate hazard ratios by census year, occupational class and their interactions. Further models adjusted for age and its interactions with census year and occupational class. The risk of male suicide has more than halved between 1991 and 2019. The relative hazard ratio of suicide in manual workers compared to managers and professionals was around 1.6 to 1.8 times higher. The period when the suicide risk started to decline differed by occupational class: a significant decrease compared to 1970s' levels was seen for managers and professionals already in the 1990s and for lower non-manual employees around 10 years later (in the 2000s). Manual workers only reached the 1970s suicide risk of managers and professionals in the 2000s and 2010s. A delayed reduction of suicide rates among lower occupational classes suggests that the impact of social changes can occur at different speed in different population groups.

The problem of false positives in automated census linking: Nineteenth-century New York’s Irish immigrants as a case study

Automated census linkage algorithms have become popular for generating longitudinal data on social mobility, especially for immigrants and their children. But what if these algorithms are particularly bad at tracking immigrants? This study utilizes a database on nineteenth-century Irish immigrants, generated from the most widely used algorithms, created by Abramitzky, Boustan, and Eriksson (ABE). Our objective is to assess the extent to which different individuals are erroneously linked together across census years and the consequences of these “false positives” for calculating social mobility. Our findings raise serious questions about the quality of the matches generated by the “first generation” of automated census linkage algorithms. False positives range from about one-third to one-half of all links. These bad links lead to sizeable estimation errors when measuring Irish immigrant social and geographic mobility.