Causes Of Synchrony Research Articles

Climate-driven variation in biotic interactions provides a narrow and variable window of opportunity for an insect herbivore at its ecological margin.

Climate-driven geographic range shifts have been associated with transitions between dietary specialism and generalism at range margins. The mechanisms underpinning these often transient niche breadth modifications are poorly known, but utilization of novel resources likely depends on phenological synchrony between the consumer and resource. We use a climate-driven range and host shift by the butterfly Aricia agestis to test how climate-driven changes in host phenology and condition affect phenological synchrony, and consider implications for host use. Our data suggest that the perennial plant that was the primary host before range expansion is a more reliable resource than the annual Geraniaceae upon which the butterfly has become specialized in newly colonized parts of its range. In particular, climate-driven phenological variation in the novel host Geranium dissectum generates a narrow and variable 'window of opportunity' for larval productivity in summer. Therefore, although climatic change may allow species to shift hosts and colonise novel environments, specialization on phenologically limited hosts may not persist at ecological margins as climate change continues. We highlight the potential role for phenological (a)synchrony in determining lability of consumer-resource associations at range margins and the importance of considering causes of synchrony in biotic interactions when predicting range shifts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas.

Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. Identification of causes of synchrony is distinct from, and goes beyond, determining drivers of local population dynamics. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. Thus synchrony and its causes are timescale-specific. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a climatic Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Our principal result is therefore a demonstration of interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may influence many ecosystems at large spatial scales.

A global geography of synchrony for marine phytoplankton

AbstractAimSpatial synchrony in plankton is imperfectly understood yet may have far‐reaching implications, for example for carbon export to the deep ocean. Several techniques have been used to describe patterns of spatial synchrony, from correlation coefficients to spectral methods. Some studies have used temporally extensive data sets to identify causes of synchrony. This study instead uses the exceptional spatial extent provided by remotely sensed data to describe, for the first time as far as we know, geographical patterns of synchrony in marine phytoplankton. We use these patterns to illuminate drivers of synchrony and of its geography.LocationThe oceans.Time period2003–2015.Major taxonChlorophyll a‐containing phytoplankton.MethodsSynchrony in chlorophyll a concentrations is mapped globally. Spatial statistics and model selection are used to illuminate main statistical determinants of synchrony and of geographical patterns in synchrony.ResultsThe first main result is that there is a pronounced and previously unmapped geography of synchrony for phytoplankton. For instance, synchrony was highest in the open ocean, specifically in gyres, and lowest in coastal regions. Spatial modelling provided the second main result that synchrony in sea surface temperature (SST) was a major statistical determinant of chlorophyll synchrony in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, indicating a strong Moran effect, although possibly an indirect and/or complex one. In the Pacific Ocean, this effect depended on the time‐scales on which synchrony was assessed, providing our third result, which is that synchrony of phytoplankton and its geography can be time‐scale specific. Synchrony of surface solar irradiance was not associated with synchrony of chlorophyll.Main conclusionsTo our knowledge, this study is the first to map geography of synchrony in marine plankton. We showed that this geography is pronounced. Geographical patterns illuminated determinants of synchrony. The geography of synchrony is a major phenomenon that has been little explored.

Infanticide and within-clutch competition select for reproductive synchrony in a cooperative bird.

Reproduction among members of social animal groups is often highly synchronized, but neither the selective advantages nor the proximate causes of synchrony are fully understood. Here I investigate the evolution of hatching synchrony in the Greater Ani (Crotophaga major), a communally nesting bird in which several unrelated females contribute eggs to a large, shared clutch. Hatching synchrony is variable, ranging from complete synchrony to moderate asynchrony, and is determined by the onset of incubation of the communal clutch. Data from a 10-year field study indicate that individual reproductive success is highest in synchronous groups, and that nestlings that hatch in the middle of the hatching sequence are most likely to survive. Nestling mortality is high in asynchronous clutches because early-hatching nestlings are more likely to be killed by adult group members, whereas late-hatching nestlings are more likely to starve due competition with their older nest-mates. Therefore, the timing of hatching appears to be under stabilizing selection from infanticide and resource competition acting in concert. These results provide empirical support for models predicting that synchrony may evolve as an adaptive counter-strategy to infanticide, and they highlight the importance of competition in shaping the timing of reproduction in social groups.

Resource depletion, pollen coupling, and the ecology of mast seeding.

Masting, the highly variable and synchronous production of seeds across a population of perennial plants, is an ecologically important, but still poorly understood, phenomenon. While much is known about the fitness benefits of masting and its effects on seed consumers and trophic interactions, less is understood about the proximate mechanisms of masting. The resource budget model (RBM) posits that masting requires more resources than plants can gain in a single year. Individual plants store resources until a threshold is reached and then produce seeds, which depletes resources so that plants cannot reproduce again for 2 or more years. Individuals are synchronized by pollen coupling or environmental forcing. We review the assumptions of these models and assess the extent to which they are consistent with general patterns in plant populations. We discuss the implications of the RBM for how plants respond to changes in the external environment. Overall, the RBM is a likely cause of synchrony in many, but not all, masting species. This mechanistic hypothesis also leads to specific, but not always intuitive, expectations about how plant resources affect mast seeding.

Using Mechanistic Models to Understand Synchrony in Forest Insect Populations: The North American Gypsy Moth as a Case Study

In many forest insects, subpopulations fluctuate concurrently across large geographical areas, a phenomenon known as population synchrony. Because of the large spatial scales involved, empirical tests to identify the causes of synchrony are often impractical. Simple models are, therefore, a useful aid to understanding, but data often seem to contradict model predictions. For instance, chaotic population dynamics and limited dispersal are not uncommon among synchronous forest defoliators, yet both make it difficult to achieve synchrony in simple models. To test whether this discrepancy can be explained by more realistic models, we introduced dispersal and spatially correlated stochasticity into a mechanistic population model for the North American gypsy moth Lymantria dispar. The resulting model shows both chaotic dynamics and spatial synchrony, suggesting that chaos and synchrony can be reconciled by the incorporation of realistic dynamics and spatial structure. By relating alterations in model structure to changes in synchrony levels, we show that the synchrony is due to a combination of spatial covariance in environmental stochasticity and the origins of chaos in our multispecies model.

Anisotropic patterned population synchrony in climatic gradients indicates nonlinear climatic forcing

Although climatic forcing has been suspected to be the most common cause of spatial population synchrony owing to the Moran effect, it has proved difficult to disentangle the impact of climate from other possible causes of synchrony based on population survey data. Nonlinear population responses to climatic variation may be a part of this difficulty, but they can also provide an opportunity to highlight the climate impacts through targeted survey designs. In particular, when species distribution ranges encompass consistent spatial gradients in climate (e.g. according to latitude or altitude), such gradients can be strategically included in the spatial design of population surveys as to facilitate comparisons of spatial synchrony patterns across and along the gradient. In that case, we predict that nonlinear impacts of climatic variation on population growth rates will result in anisotropic (direction specific) synchrony patterns in the sense that synchrony will drop faster with distance along the climatic gradient than across it. We provide an empirical case study to exemplify survey design and analyses. Of two sympatric species of geometrids, inhabiting an altitudinal gradient in subarctic birch forest, one (Operophtera brumata L.) showed anisotropic synchrony consistent with a strongly nonlinear sensitivity to climatic variation, whereas the other (Epirrita autumnata Bkh.) did not. These results are interpreted in light of the biological characteristics of the species.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Small Mammals at a Regional Scale in Canadian Boreal Forest

Spatial synchrony is a common feature of mammalian population dynamics that appears to be caused by different processes in different systems. We sampled 60 sites across >900 km in northern and central Ontario, Canada, from 2001 to 2004 to assess spatial and temporal trends in abundance and population growth of small mammals. We tested alternative predictions for 3 causes of synchrony: dispersal, predation, and correlated environmental perturbations (the Moran effect). During 25,680 trap nights, Myodes gapperi, Tamias striatus, and Peromyscus maniculatus were the most commonly captured species. Populations of all 3 species fluctuated markedly during the 4 years of sampling, but fluctuations appeared to occur over a relatively small spatial extent (<200 km for all species). No pairwise combination of species exhibited positive interspecific synchrony, suggesting that nomadic predation was not synchronizing declines among species. Our data were most consistent with the dispersal hypothesis or a Moran effect caused through synchronous food crops.

Spatial Synchrony in Population Dynamics

▪ Abstract Spatial synchrony refers to coincident changes in the abundance or other time-varying characteristics of geographically disjunct populations. This phenomenon has been documented in the dynamics of species representing a variety of taxa and ecological roles. Synchrony may arise from three primary mechanisms:(a) dispersal among populations, reducing the size of relatively large populations and increasing relatively small ones; (b) congruent dependence of population dynamics on a synchronous exogenous random factor such as temperature or rainfall, a phenomenon known as the “Moran effect”; and (c) trophic interactions with populations of other species that are themselves spatially synchronous or mobile. Identification of the causes of synchrony is often difficult. In addition to intraspecific synchrony, there are many examples of synchrony among populations of different species, the causes of which are similarly complex and difficult to identify. Furthermore, some populations may exhibit complex spatial dynamics such as spiral waves and chaos. Statistical tests based on phase coherence and/or time-lagged spatial correlation are required to characterize these more complex patterns of spatial dynamics fully.