Causal Indeterminacy Research Articles

Schlick and Popper on Causality and Quantum Physics: Origins and Perspectives of the Debate

ABSTRACT In this article I will focus on the debate on the causality principle that originated in the light of quantum mechanics concerning Moritz Schlick and Karl Popper. The discovery of quantum mechanics led to a broad debate on the interpretation of the principle of causality. Schlick proposed that it should be understood as an empirically verifiable postulate, and therefore with limits regarding causal indeterminacy in quantum physics. This approach had an influence on some scientists, especially Werner Heisenberg. However, Popper would develop a different way of understanding science because of the role played by unverifiable elements in theories that can nevertheless be falsified. It is precisely the discussion around the principle of causality that opens up different ways of understanding science. I will first try to analyse Schlick’s argument in the context of the debate that was taking place in the late 1920s in the light of the new quantum mechanics; secondly, I will look at the reception that Schlick’s idea of causality had in Heisenberg and the Copenhagen Interpretation; thirdly, I will analyse Popper’s argument against Schlick’s interpretation; finally, I will try to see the resonances of this debate in Heisenberg and other physicists.

Indeterminacy and impotence.

Recent work in applied ethics has advanced a raft of arguments regarding individual responsibilities to address collective challenges like climate change or the welfare and environmental impacts of meat production. Frequently, such arguments suggest that individual actors have a responsibility to be more conscientious with their consumption decisions, that they can and should harness the power of the market to bring about a desired outcome. A common response to these arguments, and a challenge in particular to act-consequentialist reasoning, is that it “makes no difference” if one takes conscious consumption action or not – that one is “causally impotent” to change an outcome. In this paper, I break causal impotence objections into three distinct lines of argument and present causal indeterminacy as a third, unexplored variation of much more common causal impotence lines. I suggest that the causal indeterminacy argument presents additional challenges to consequentialist moral theory because it acknowledges that individual actions can have an impact on outcome, but suggests instead that the outcome can neither be known nor secured by the action itself.

The Use and Misuse of Uneven and Combined Development: A Critique of Anievas and Nişancıoğlu

AbstractAneivas and Nişancıoğlu’s provocative book,How the West Came to Rule, attempts to provide an alternative account of the origins of capitalism to both ‘Political Marxism’ and ‘World-Systems Theory’. By making uneven and combined development a universal dynamic of human history and by utilising a flawed concept of ‘Eurocentrism’, however, they introduce a high degree of causal pluralism into their analysis. Despite important insights into the specific dynamics of different pre-capitalist forms of social labour, their account of the origins of capitalism inHow the West Came to Rulesuffers from causal indeterminacy and historical inaccuracies.

Social Contagion and Cultural Epidemics: Phenomenological and “Experience‐Near” Explorations

AbstractWe open the special issue by asking: how are groups of people affected by similar conditions, even when these are not biologically contagious? This is linked to broader theoretical and empirical questions of how we are influenced by others and by the specific times and places in which we live. We describe the history and etymology of the concepts of epidemics and contagion and argue that we need to reclaim some of the pre‐Hippocratic meanings of these concepts. Importantly, we suggest a postponement, or epoche, of the negative moral judgment of these terms with a view to exploring what actually happens when noncommunicable diseases and conditions spread. We introduce a variety of existing approaches and argue that they have taken us only part of the way in trying to understand social contagion and cultural epidemics. The articles in this issue explore a variety of noncommunicable conditions that have gained global prominence as epidemic problems—diabetes, obesity, trauma, and autism—through perspectives and concepts from phenomenological and experience‐near traditions. This includes emic ideas of social contagion and contamination, intersubjective units of analysis, causal indeterminacy, as well as diversity and transformation in social contagion.

Institutions as a Composite Concept: Explaining their Indeterminate Relationships with Economic Outcomes

Development economics witnessed an ‘institutional turn’ from the 1990s onwards, with an increasing number of studies examining the two-way relationships between institutions and growth or individual incomes. Most of these studies, however, rely on mathematical models with empirical evidence being analysed via econometrics, thus assuming the possibility that given institutions may be subsumed under quantifiable variables. Many possible channels of causality have been highlighted over time and are in fine inconclusive. The context-dependence of causalities has been underscored in the literature. This paper goes further, building an original conceptual framework that articulates concepts from development economics, evolutionary theories of institutions and cognitive psychology. Firstly, the paper argues that the modelling of causalities is hindered by the very nature of the concept of institutions: these are composite entities and include varieties of ‘forms’ and ‘contents,’ which are driven by heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics and combine between themselves according to contexts. The concept of institution thus does not have the properties of semantic precision and stability in time and space that is yet required by modelling. What econometric studies measure are indeed some public attributes (‘forms’) of an institution, but this gives little information on the beliefs that individuals have about a given institution. Building on this first argument, the second argument is that this ex ante causal indeterminacy (on economic outcomes) is compounded by the heterogeneity of institutions. Some institutions have the property in individual mental representations to be more resilient than others, notably those governing group memberships: in the context of a limited presence of other institutions (e.g., those created by states) they exhibit a greater social dissemination – but cumulative causation may generate ‘institutional traps.’ Understanding these ‘core’ institutions may explain the vicious circles in which some developing regions seem to be caught. JEL Codes: O10, O43, B52

Vagueness and the Laws of Metaphysics

This is a paper about the nature of metaphysical laws and their relation to the phenomenon of vagueness. Metaphysical laws are introduced as analogous to natural laws, and metaphysical indeterminism is modeled on causal indeterminacy. This kind of indeterminacy is then put to work in developing a novel theory of vagueness and a solution to the sorites paradox.

The Viability of the “Responsibility to Prevent”

The efficacy of the Responsibility to Prevent suffers from two key problems; causal indeterminacy, and a dependence on the political will of states, particularly the permanent five members of the Security Council. The vast array of factors which can be cited as potentially contributing to the outbreak of conflict and atrocity crimes mitigates against the determination of definite “conflict triggers”. This does not mean prevention is impossible but does limit the efficacy of “early warning systems”. The dynamics of the “four crimes” within R2P’s purview further limits the efficacy of prevention as the decision to engage in mass atrocities is taken in response to a perceived existential crisis. This significantly limits the scope for leveraging the “internal” aspect of R2P as the decision to commit these acts is invariably born from a belief that no other option is available to the potential aggressors. Thus the specifics of atrocity crime prevention places great emphasis on the operationalisation of the external dimension of R2P, namely the role of the international community. So long as the response of the “international community” is predicated on the political will of states, however, the efficacy of prevention in these areas will be limited, as the “international” response is prey to narrowly defined national interests.

When Certainty Dissolves into Probability: A Legal Vision of Toxic Causation for the Post-Genomic Era

Proof of causation in toxic torts has presented persistent problems for the legal system, because the probabilities that science can know fit poorly with the demands for particularistic proof imposed by the law’s deterministic model of causation. Some scholars have hoped that genomic and molecular information will at last provide scientific certainty — definitive, individualized proof of toxic causation.This Article argues that the opposite is true. Scientific research will increasingly elucidate the ways in which environmental exposures and human genes interact to produce disease, but this deeper knowledge will extend rather than resolve the problem of causal indeterminacy in toxic torts. Genomic and molecular understanding, instead of sounding the death knell for proposals to reform toxic tort causation law, will strengthen the argument for those reforms.This Article proposes a probabilistic causal contribution model to replace the model of deterministic causation in toxic torts, building on earlier scholarly proposals and the creativity of a handful of courts. The Article explores how the model would work and argues that it is superior to present doctrine when assessed against the goals of the tort system.

THE FALSE PROMISE OF QUANTUM MECHANICS

Abstract.The causal indeterminacy suggested by quantum mechanics has led to its being the centerpiece of several proposals for divine action that does not contradict natural laws. However, even if the theoretical concerns about the reality of causal indeterminacy are ignored, quantum‐level divine action fails to resolve the problem of ongoing, responsive divine activity. This is because most quantum‐level actions require a significant period of time in order to reach macroscopic levels whether via chaotic amplification or complete divine control of quantum events. Therefore, quantum‐level divine action either requires divine foreknowledge of purportedly free or random events or imposes such limitations on divine actions that they become late, potentially impotent, and confused. I argue that the theological problem of divine action remains; even at its most promising, quantum mechanics offers insufficient resolution. This failure suggests a reexamination of the assumptions that God is temporal and lacks foreknowledge of future contingencies.

A Stability Analysis of a Dynamic Leontief Model of Exponential Growth in Consumption

This paper deals with a dynamic Leontief model of exponential growth in consumption. Sufficient conditions of non-negativity of output are determined and it is proved that it is a necessary condition that the growth rate of consumption is less than the von Neumann growth rate. I. Introduction The dynamic, closed Leontief model has been analyzed intensively in the input-output literature. It is well known that, for certain initial values of output, the output of some sectors may become negative at later periods. This possibility of negative sectoral outputs is labeled causal indeterminacy and is a serious theoretical difficulty in the model. The concept of is useful in this connection. The von Neumann growth path, in which all sectoral outputs grow at the same rate, is relatively stable, if, for each sector, the ratio between the actual output and the output of the von Neumann growth path converges to a positive constant as time extends without limit, regardless of the initial value of output. The constant is identical for all sectors, but depends on the initial value of output. It is possible to define necessary and sufficient conditions of relative stability of the von Neumann growth path and if the model is relatively stable, then all sectoral outputs are non-negative during and after a certain future period. In this paper, some of these results are generalized to an open, dynamic Leontief model of exponential growth in consumption. It is assumed that the economy is closed and without a public sector, and that there are no technological innovations. An analysis is made which defines sufficient conditions of non-negativity. Moreover, it is proved that one of these conditions is also necessary. The homogeneous part of the solution is non-negative during and after a certain future period if:

Free will, determinism, and the theory of important criteria

The Theory of Important Criteria is used to argue that the age‐old problem of the compatibility of free will and determinism turns on the question of the importance of causal indeterminacy of choice as a criterion of being able to do otherwise. One's answer to this question depends in turn on one's evaluation of certain moral issues and of the force and significance of certain similes, analogies and diagrams in terms of which one can ‘depict’ a deterministic universe. It is further argued that the problem of free will and determinism is not a pseudo‐problem, but a genuine problem that is hard to solve because of the depth and complexity of the evaluative issues on which it hangs.