Catch-up Cohorts Research Articles

Evaluating the effectiveness of the HPV vaccination programme in England, using regression discontinuity design

Objective and ApproachIn England, the National human papillomavirus (HPV) HPV Immunisation Programme was introduced for young girls in 2008. Whilst clinical trials have shown high vaccine effectiveness, real-world evidence is still accruing. Estimating vaccine effectiveness based on real-world data without randomised control trials is challenging, but critical for policy makers. Using Census 2011 data and a population level linked dataset, we exploit a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to assess the impact of the catch-up vaccination programme on cervical dysplasia and cancer diagnoses as recorded in hospital and mortality data in girls born between 1987 and 1992. ResultsWe estimate that vaccination reduces the incidence of cervical dysplasia diagnoses by 27% and cervical cancer diagnoses by 75% respectively. Girls were followed for a 7-year period between ages 23 and 30 years in girls who were offered vaccination at ages 17 to 18 years as part of the catch-up cohort compared to those who were not eligible for HPV vaccination. Conclusions and ImplicationsOur work demonstrates how pivotal the HPV vaccination programme has been for reducing adverse cervical outcomes in young women. Additionally, it shows that the estimates of the effectiveness of HPV vaccination obtained using a RDD are comparable to those based on more classic observational studies. This work shows real world vaccination effectiveness and demonstrates how pivotal the national HPV campaign has been in young girls.

EE49 Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a New Dengue Vaccine (TAK-003) in a Large Catch-up Cohort in Puerto Rico

EE49 Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of a New Dengue Vaccine (TAK-003) in a Large Catch-up Cohort in Puerto Rico

Outcomes of pediatric community-acquired pneumonia before and after national pneumococcal immunization in Taiwan.

In Taiwan, the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children declined after the catch-up primary vaccination programs and the full national immunization program (NIP) with PCV13. The objective of the study was to investigate the clinical outcomes of pediatric community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) before and after the NIP. The study included patients aged 3 months to 17 years who were diagnosed with CAP and treated at the National Taiwan University Hospital between 2007 and 2019. Patients were assigned to three birth cohorts according to their birth years and vaccination eligibility: non-NIP, catch-up, and full NIP. We compared the rates of severe outcomes, including case fatality and pathogens. A total of 6557 patients who met the CAP criteria were enrolled during the study period. The case-fatality rate decreased from 3.2% (94/2984) in the non-NIP cohort to 0.3% (7/2176) in the catch-up cohort and 0.8% (11/1397) in the full NIP cohort (p < 0.001). Furthermore, there was a significant decrease in invasive ventilation from the non-NIP (17.9%) to both catch-up (6.8%) and full NIP cohorts (9.1%). The rate of IPD declined from the non-NIP cohort to the catch-up cohort (1.8% vs. 0.6%, p < 0.001) and from the catch-up to the full NIP cohort (0.6% vs. 0.07%, p = 0.014). In contrast, the rates of infections with other pathogens increased after NIP. The introduction of PCV13 showed significant reduction in case-fatality and IPD rates. The increasing rates of other pathogens warrant further surveillance for their clinical significance.

Evidence-based impact projections of single-dose human papillomavirus vaccination in India: a modelling study.

Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule. In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born. Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts. Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India. The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.

Incidence of cervical precancerous lesions and cervical cancer in Denmark from 2000 to 2019: Population impact of multi-cohort vaccination against human papillomavirus infection.

In Denmark, vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been implemented in the children's vaccination program (January 2009) and in multiple catch-up cohorts (October 2008 in girls 13-15 years and in August 2012 in women up to 27 years). In the present study we estimate incidence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3), adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (AC) during 2000-2019. All cases of CIN3 and AIS were identified from the nationwide Pathology Data Bank, while SCC and AC were identified from the Danish Cancer Registry. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for the periods before vaccination implementation (2000-2005), early after implementation of childhood HPV vaccination and the first catch-up vaccination program (2006-2012), and after implementation of the second catch-up program (2013-2019). For CIN3 and AIS, age-specific incidence rates and EAPCs were calculated. An increasing age-standardized incidence was observed before introduction of HPV vaccination (2000-2005) for CIN3 [EAPCCIN3 : 3.0 (95% CI 1.7 to 4.3)] and AIS [EAPCAIS : 3.5 (95% CI 0.7 to 6.4)]. In the most recent period (2013-2019), following implementation of the second catch-up program, a decrease was observed for both CIN3 [EAPCCIN3 : -6.5 (95% CI -8.3 to -4.8)], AIS [EAPCAIS : -8.7 (95% CI -12.3 to -5.1)] and for SCC [EAPCSCC : -3.9 (95% CI -7.5 to -0.2)]. In this study we document a decrease in the incidence of CIN3, AIS and SCC in the period after implementation of multi-cohort HPV vaccination in Denmark.

Problems with catch-up HPV vaccination after resumption of proactive recommendations.

We previously reported that the suspension of the proactive recommendation for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Japan led to an increase in infection rates and incidence of cytological abnormalities, 1 Sekine M Yamaguchi M Kudo R et al. Suspension of proactive recommendations for HPV vaccination has led to a significant increase in HPV infection rates in young Japanese women: real-world data. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2021; 16100300 PubMed Google Scholar , 2 Yagi A Ueda Y Ikeda S et al. The looming health hazard: a wave of HPV-related cancers in Japan is becoming a reality due to the continued suspension of the governmental recommendation of HPV vaccine. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2022; 18100327 PubMed Google Scholar and appealed for proactive recommendations to be reinstated. 3 Ueda Y Yagi A Ikeda S Enomoto T Kimura T Beyond resumption of the Japanese government's recommendation of the HPV vaccine. Lancet Oncol. 2018; 19: 1563-1564 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (15) Google Scholar In response to our findings, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare resumed proactive recommendations for the HPV vaccine in April, 2022, and initiated catch-up vaccinations for women who might have missed the opportunity to receive the vaccine during the period when proactive recommendations were suspended. 4 Haruyama R Obara H Fujita N Japan resumes active recommendations of HPV vaccine after 8·5 years of suspension. Lancet Oncol. 2022; 23: 197-198 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (7) Google Scholar A large proportion of women in the target age group (17–25 years) in Japan's fiscal year 2022 will be eligible for the recommended catch-up vaccination (figure). 5 Nakagawa S Ueda Y Yagi A Ikeda S Hiramatsu K Kimura T Corrected human papillomavirus vaccination rates for each birth fiscal year in Japan. Cancer Sci. 2020; 111: 2156-2162 Crossref PubMed Scopus (24) Google Scholar To reduce the incidence of invasive cervical cancer in Japan, a catch-up vaccination programme with at least 50% coverage will be required. 6 Simms KT Hanley SJB Smith MA Keane A Canfell K Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020; 5: e223-e234 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (89) Google Scholar To date, England, Sweden, Denmark, and the USA have successfully implemented national catch-up HPV vaccination programmes. In these countries, catch-up vaccination has been reported to have substantially reduced the incidence of cervical precancer and invasive cancer. However, in England, low vaccination coverage among the catch-up generation has been reported. Coverage of three doses of the HPV vaccine was high for women who received the routine vaccination at age 12–13 years (80·9–88·0%), but lower for the catch-up cohorts (70·8–75·7% for age 14–16 years, and 38·9–48·1% for age 16–18 years). 7 Falcaro M Castañon A Ndlela B et al. The effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England, UK, on cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia incidence: a register-based observational study. Lancet. 2021; 398: 2084-2092 Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (116) Google Scholar Catch-up vaccination is challenging in Japan because no national HPV vaccine register exists, and immunisation histories are maintained individually by each municipality (approximately 1700) that has provided routine vaccinations. 8 Yamaguchi M Sekine M Kudo R et al. Differential misclassification between self-reported status and official HPV vaccination records in Japan: implications for evaluating vaccine safety and effectiveness. Papillomavirus Res. 2018; 6: 6-10 Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar For example, if a woman who received the HPV vaccination at age 12–16 years in one municipality moves to a residential address in another municipality, it would not be possible to ascertain her vaccination history from the previous municipality. Thus, a woman who has received three doses of the HPV vaccine in one municipality would be advised to receive three more doses of the HPV vaccine if she moved to another municipality. Thus, the vaccination programme will rely on patient recall regarding personal vaccination history. In our previous study, 1230 women aged 20–22 years between fiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2017 were asked in a questionnaire whether they had been vaccinated in the past. 140/308 (45·5%) of those who responded that they had not been vaccinated had received 1–3 doses of the vaccine. 8 Yamaguchi M Sekine M Kudo R et al. Differential misclassification between self-reported status and official HPV vaccination records in Japan: implications for evaluating vaccine safety and effectiveness. Papillomavirus Res. 2018; 6: 6-10 Crossref PubMed Scopus (26) Google Scholar In our current analysis of 1778 women aged 20–26 years in fiscal year 2020 (appendix), 199/879 (22·6%) of those vaccinated reported that they had never been vaccinated. Recall of women who visited clinics with their parents at age 12–16 years and received the HPV vaccine was poor.

Reduction in Vaccine HPV Type Infections in a Young Women Group (18-25 Years) Five Years after HPV Vaccine Introduction in Colombia.

In Colombia, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine was launched in 2012 in the context of a school-based national vaccination program targeting girls ages 9 to 14 and offering catch-up vaccination for girls ages 14 to 17. In this study, we evaluated the program's impact on type-specific HPV infection by comparing HPV cervical prevalence among vaccinated and nonvaccinated women. This is a comparative cross-sectional study conducted 5 years after the quadrivalent HPV vaccination implementation in a sentinel Colombian City. This study included young women (18-25 years old) who had been vaccinated in the catch-up group and were attending universities and technical institutions, and women who attended primary health care facilities for Pap smear screening. The HPV prevalence of 1,287 unvaccinated women was compared with the prevalence of 1,986 vaccinated women. The prevalence of HPV16/18 infections was significantly lower in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated women (6.5% vs. 15.4%; P < 0.001), whereas for HPV6/11 infections, a decrease of 63.7% in vaccinated women (1.02% vs. 2.81%) was observed. The adjusted effectiveness to HPV16/18 was 61.4%; 95% CI, 54.3%-67.6%. However, the effectiveness against HPV16/18 was significantly higher among women vaccinated before their sexual debut 91.5%; 95% CI, 86.8-94.5, compared with effectiveness for vaccination after their sexual debut, 36.2%; 95% CI, 23.6-46.7. Five years after the introduction of HPV vaccines in Colombia, high effectiveness of HPV to prevent HPV16/18 infections is observed in the catch-up cohorts including virgin and sexually active women. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Monitoring HPV vaccines post-licensure plays an important role in assessing the progress of immunization programs, demonstrating the impact of vaccines on the population, and providing data for policy needs. In Colombia, HPV vaccines showed effectiveness when administered before start of sexual activity, and two doses are sufficient to achieve good protection.

HPV Catch-up Vaccination is Effective but Cervical Screening Should Continue

This short communication reports additional research that extends the previously published article - Commentary: HPV Catch-Up Vaccination Reduces the Prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 Infections and Cervical Disease: A Retrospective Study.1 One limitation of that study was uncertainty as to whether the catch-up cohort had actually received HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccination. That information has now been obtained. 87 (59%) of the 147 patients in the catch-up cohort had received at least one dose of HPV bivalent vaccine. 69 of these (representing 79% of those vaccinated) had received three doses (as recommended at the time). Both the vaccinated and unvaccinated subsets of the catch-up cohort show a significant reduction in the prevalence of HPV 16 and/or 18 (with/without other high-risk types 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66 and 68) and of high grade cervical disease compared to an earlier unvaccinated cohort. These results confirm the efficacy of HPV catch-up vaccination and the existence of herd immunity following the introduction of national HPV vaccination campaigns. However, 34 patients (23%) in the catch-up cohort had high grade disease (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia [CIN] 2 or worse), 16 of whom had been vaccinated (12 with three doses, one with two doses and three with one dose of HPV bivalent vaccine) and four of those vaccinated had HPV 16 and/or 18 (with/without other high-risk types), the rest had other HPV high risk types. This emphasises the importance of maintaining cervical screening alongside HPV vaccination.

Has the human papillomavirus (HPV) immunization programme improved obstetric outcomes in spontaneous delivery? An ecological study

ObjectiveTo measure the rates of adverse obstetric outcomes in spontaneous delivery in a population of young women with high uptake of the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. Study DesignThis was a population-based ecological study with data from the Aberdeen Maternity and Neonatal Databank, UK. All women born between 1986–1996 with spontaneous singleton live birth at age 20–30 years were included for analysis. Exposure was defined according to maternal year of birth and HPV immunisation eligibility: pre-immunisation cohort (1986–1990), catch-up immunisation cohort (1991–1994) and routine immunisation cohort (1995–1996). Outcomes were defined as spontaneous preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW) and pre-labour preterm rupture of membranes (pPROM). Generalized estimating equation models were applied, adjusted for deprivation, smoking status, marital status, body mass index, parity, maternal age and year of infant delivery. ResultsA total of 6515 spontaneous singleton live births were included in final analysis, with 5134 births included in the pre-immunisation cohort, 1250 in the catch-up immunisation cohort and 131 in the routine immunisation cohort. Compared with the pre-immunisation cohort, no statistically significant reduction on PTB, LBW or pPROM were observed in either immunised cohorts. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) on PTB was 0.64 (95 % confidence interval, 0.40–1.03) in the catch-up cohort and 0.71 (0.28–1.77) in the routine cohort. The corresponding aOR were 0.88 (0.54–1.45) and 0.51 (0.16–1.62) for LBW and 1.62 (0.58–4.54) and 1.51 (0.21–11.01) for pPROM. ConclusionsWe did not observe a significant reduction on PTB, LBW or pPROM among spontaneous singleton live birth in either HPV immunised cohorts, although the additional benefit in improving obstetric outcomes cannot be excluded because of the limits of the sample size and the study design. Further demonstration is warranted when more women in the fully HPV immunised cohorts embark on pregnancy.

Determinants of shingles vaccine acceptance in the United Kingdom.

The United Kingdom (UK) was the first European country to introduce a national immunisation program for shingles (2013-2014). That year, vaccination coverage ranged from 50 to 64% across the UK, but uptake has declined ever since. This study explored determinants of the acceptance of the shingles vaccine in the UK. Vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, who were eligible for the last catch-up cohort of the 2014-2015 shingles vaccination campaign, were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (the National Health Service data research service) and invited to participate by their general practitioner (GP). An anonymised self-administered questionnaire was developed using the Health Belief Model as a theoretical framework, to collect data on demographic and socio-economic characteristics, health status, knowledge, influences, experiences and attitudes to shingles and the shingles vaccine. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the factors associated with vaccination. Physicians' views concerning perceived barriers to vaccination were also assessed. Of the 2,530 questionnaires distributed, 536 were returned (21.2%) from 69 general practices throughout the UK. The majority of responders were female (58%), lived in care homes (56%) and had completed secondary or higher education (88%). There were no differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated responders. Being offered the shingles vaccine by a GP/nurse (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3), and self-efficacy (OR = 1.2) were associated with being vaccinated (p<0.05). In contrast, previous shingles history (OR = 0.4), perceived barriers to vaccination (OR = 0.7) and perceived control of the disease (OR = 0.7) were associated with not being vaccinated against shingles (p<0.05). Less than half (44.0%) of GPs were aware of the local communication campaigns regarding shingles and the shingles vaccine. Socio-psychological factors largely influence shingles vaccination acceptance in this study. The results add to existing evidence that healthcare providers (HCPs) have a pivotal role against vaccine hesitancy. Campaigns focusing on GPs and accessible information offered to eligible members of the public can further enhance shingles vaccine uptake.

Risk factors for modified vaccine effectiveness of the live attenuated zoster vaccine among the elderly in England

BackgroundThe United Kingdom introduced routine vaccination with the live-attenuated zoster vaccine for 70 year-olds in 2013, with the vaccine also offered to 79 year-olds as part of a catch-up campaign. In the subsequent years, the catch-up campaign was extended to also include adults aged 78 years. We investigated 14 pre-identified potential risk factors for potential modified vaccine effectiveness. MethodsThis retrospective cohort study in England included subjects born in 1943–1946 (the routine cohort) and in 1934–1937 (the catch-up cohort). We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) to identify herpes zoster (HZ) cases and the risk factors: age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status, asthma, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smoking, body mass index, immunosuppression, history of HZ, co-administration with influenza or pneumococcal vaccine. We derived HZ incidence by risk groups, overall vaccine effectiveness (VE) and modified VE expressed as relative differences in VE from Poisson regression models. ResultsOverall VE was 66.8% [95% CI: 62.2; 71.0]. Two out of the 14 investigated risk factors modified the HZ VE. Notably, lower VE was observed in diabetics and in persons with a history of HZ with relative differences in VE of –22·2%, [95% CI: −39·6, −4·5] and –22·5%, [95% CI: −44·9, −0·1]. ConclusionsLive-attenuated zoster vaccine protection against HZ was lower in type 2 diabetics and in subjects with a history of HZ. Contrary to clinical trial results, age did not affect the observed VE. Further study is required to gain insights into why certain risk groups are less protected. Identifying and understanding the effect modifiers of VE is important for future vaccine development as well as vaccine recommendations.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of revaccination and catch-up strategies with the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) in older adults in Japan

Objective: In Japan, the National Immunization Program (NIP) includes PPV23 as the primary vaccination for adults and catch-up cohorts. The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases recommends revaccination for older adults who received primary vaccination ≥5 years earlier. The cost-effectiveness of adding revaccination and/or continuing catch-up vaccination in the NIP was evaluated from the public payer perspective in Japan.Methods: The Markov model included five health states: no pneumococcal disease, invasive pneumococcal diseases (IPD), non-bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia (NBPP), post-meningitis sequelae, and death. Cohorts of adults aged 65–95 were followed until age 100 or death: 2014 cohort (aged 65–95, vaccinated: 2014); 2019 cohort (aged 65: 2019); and 2019 catch-up cohort (aged 70–100: 2019, unvaccinated: 2014). Strategies included: (1) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts; (2) vaccinate 2014 and 2019 cohorts and revaccinate both; (3) strategy 1 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; (4) strategy 2 and vaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort; and (5) strategy 4 and revaccinate 2019 catch-up cohort. Parameters were retrieved from global and Japanese sources, costs and QALYs discounted at 2%, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) estimated.Results: Strategy 1 had the highest number of IPD and NBPP cases, and strategy 5 the lowest. Strategies 3–5 dominated strategy 1 and strategy 2 was cost-effective compared to strategy 1 (ICER: ¥1,622,153 per QALY gained). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥5 million per QALY gained, strategy 2 was cost-effective and strategies 3–5 were cost-saving compared to strategy 1.Conclusions: Strategies including revaccination, catch-up, or both were cost-effective or cost-saving in comparison to no revaccination and no catch-up. Results can inform future vaccine policies and programs in Japan.

Effectiveness of herpes zoster vaccination in an older United Kingdom population

BackgroundVaccination against herpes zoster was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2013 for individuals aged 70 years, with a phased catch-up campaign for 71–79 year olds. Vaccine introduction has resulted in a marked fall in incident herpes zoster and in post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN), but formal evaluation of vaccine effectiveness is needed. MethodsIn a population-based cohort study of older individuals born between 1933 and 1946, we used linked UK anonymised primary care health records for the first three years of the vaccination programme (01/09/2013–31/08/2016) and multivariable Poisson regression to obtain incidence rates and vaccine effectiveness (VE) against zoster and PHN. ResultsAmong 516,547 individuals, 21% were vaccinated. Incidence of zoster was 3.15/1000 person-years in vaccinees and 8.80/1000 person-years in unvaccinated individuals. After adjustment, VE was 64% (95%CI = 60–68%) against incident zoster and 81% (95%CI = 61–91%) against PHN, with very similar VE estimates in the routine and catch-up cohorts. VE against zoster was lower in those with a previous history of zoster: 47% (95%CI = 31–58%) versus 64% (95%CI = 60–68%) in those without previous zoster. There was evidence of waning VE over time, from 69% (95%CI = 65–74%) in the first year after vaccination to 45% (95%CI = 29–57%) by the third year. ConclusionThis first formal assessment of VE in the UK zoster vaccination programme demonstrates good effectiveness of zoster vaccine, and very good protection against PHN. The findings provide evidence that VE is similar across the age groups targeted for vaccination in the UK, and on duration of protection of the vaccine in public health use. The study provides key information for decision-makers about the future direction of UK zoster vaccination programme, indicating that the live zoster vaccine may be more cost-effective than estimated previously. It also supports efforts to communicate the benefits of zoster vaccination to address the declining coverage observed across the UK.

UK experience of herpes zoster vaccination can inform varicella zoster virus policies

UK experience of herpes zoster vaccination can inform varicella zoster virus policies

Evaluation of the effect of the herpes zoster vaccination programme 3 years after its introduction in England: a population-based study

SummaryBackgroundIn 2013, a herpes zoster vaccination programme was introduced in England for adults aged 70 years with a phased catch-up programme for those aged 71–79 years. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the first 3 years of the vaccination programme on incidence of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in this population.MethodsIn this population-based study, we extracted data from the Royal College of General Practitioners sentinel primary care network on consultations with patients aged 60–89 years for herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia occurring between Oct 1, 2005, and Sept 30, 2016, obtaining data from 164 practices. We identified individual data on herpes zoster vaccinations administered and consultations for herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia, and aggregated these data to estimate vaccine coverage and incidence of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia consultations. We defined age cohorts to identify participants targeted in each year of the programme, and as part of the routine or catch-up programme. We modelled incidence according to age, region, gender, time period, and vaccine eligibility using multivariable Poisson regression with an offset for person-years.FindingsOur analysis included 3·36 million person-years of data, corresponding to an average of 310 001 patients aged 60–89 years who were registered at an RCGP practice each year. By Aug 31, 2016, uptake of the vaccine varied between 58% for the recently targeted cohorts and 72% for the first routine cohort. Across the first 3 years of vaccination for the three routine cohorts, incidence of herpes zoster fell by 35% (incidence rate ratio 0·65 [95% 0·60–0·72]) and of postherpetic neuralgia fell by 50% (0·50 [0·38–0·67]). The equivalent reduction for the four catch-up cohorts was 33% for herpes zoster (incidence rate ratio 0·67 [0·61–0·74]) and 38% for postherpetic neuralgia (0·62 [0·50–0·79]). These reductions are consistent with a vaccine effectiveness of about 62% against herpes zoster and 70–88% against postherpetic neuralgia.InterpretationThe herpes zoster vaccination programme in England has had a population impact equivalent to about 17 000 fewer episodes of herpes zoster and 3300 fewer episodes of postherpetic neuralgia among 5·5 million eligible individuals in the first 3 years of the programme. Communication of the public health impact of this programme will be important to reverse the recent trend of declining vaccine coverage.FundingPublic Health England.

Zoster Vaccine Effectiveness Against Incident Herpes Zoster and Post-Herpetic Neuralgia In Elderly In The UK

Herpes zoster (HZ) is a painful skin rash that occurs most frequently in older adults and is caused by reactivation of latent varicella zoster virus (VZV). Its most common complication is post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN). The UK introduced zoster vaccination in the national immunization program in 2013. The vaccine was routinely offered to 70 year-olds and, as part of the catch-up, to 79 year-olds. This study assessed the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HZ and PHN in elderly within the total population. This retrospective cohort study included subjects from birth cohorts 1943-1946 (routine) and 1934-1937 (catch-up) in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Vaccinated subjects were compared to unvaccinated subjects using piecewise Cox regression model. HZ outcomes in community setting were analyzed, including HZ, PHN and other HZ complications (i.e. neurological but not PHN, ocular, disseminated and other). For the routine birth cohorts (79274 subjects), we found a VE for HZ of 76.4% (95% CI: 70.6%-81.1%) and for PHN of 68.3% (95% CI: 7.4%-89.1%) for the first 2 years of vaccination. For the subsequent 2+ years, the VE estimates of HZ was 56.1% (95% CI: 29.2%-72.7%). For the catch-up cohorts (48193 subjects), the VE estimates were comparable. We found insufficient evidence to determine the VE for other HZ complications. Within the total population, the HZ vaccine provided protection against HZ and PHN, but its protection declined over time. Immunosuppressed conditions need to be taken into account.

Trend of measles, mumps, and rubella incidence following the measles-rubella catch up vaccination in the Republic of Korea, 2001.

Following the introduction of measles-rubella (MR) catch-up vaccination in 2001 and two dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR2) keep-up program in 2002, the incidence of measles, mumps, and rubella was not evaluated systematically. To describe the recent changes in epidemiology, a population-based incidence study from 2001 to 2015 using national notifiable disease surveillance data was conducted. Between 2001 and 2015, there was decrease in the incidence of measles and rubella, whereas a steady increase in mump incidence was noted. The age distribution of mumps cases has shifted to the older age group, whereas rubella became more frequent in younger age group. The incidence of mumps showed an increase in every birth cohorts, except for the decrease in incidence for catch-up vaccination cohort from 131 cases in 2007-2011 to 64 cases per 100 000 in 2012-2015. Continuing in monitoring of mumps and strengthening of the high two-dose MMR vaccination coverage should be taken place in Korea.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Brazil

Objective: To define the economic value of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in Brazil by estimating the cost-effectiveness vaccine price threshold per dose. Methods: A dengue dynamic transmission model was used to estimate the public health impact of dengue vaccination and related economic parameters. Two vaccination strategies were assessed: routine vaccination at 9 years old plus ei[1]ther a catch-up campaign of 7 cohorts (10 to 16 years old; R9&amp;10-16) or 16 cohorts (10 to 25 years old; R9&amp;10-25). Brazilian-specific demographic, epidemiological and economic data were used. The economic impact over 10 years was estimated from the public payer and societal perspectives. All costs were expressed in BRL2016. Results: Over 10 years, the R9&amp;10-16 and R9&amp;10-25 vaccination strategies would prevent 9 million and 15 million dengue cases, respectively, avoiding 269,906 (95% CI: 410,097–154,653) and 434,334 (95% CI: 547,052–304,799) disability-adjusted life years. This would result in savings of up to BRL7.4 billion (US$2.1 billion) from a societal perspective with the larger vaccination program. The cost-effective vaccine price threshold per dose for the R9&amp;10-16 and R9&amp;10-25 strategies would be BRL187.5 (95% CI: 109–276) (US$52.1) and BRL183.6 (95% CI: 129–230) (US$51.0), respectively, from the public payer perspective, and BRL221.5 (95% CI: 129–326) (US$61.5) and BRL216.8 (95% CI: 153–271) (US$60.2), respectively, from the societal perspective. Conclusion: The high threshold of vaccine price per dose demonstrates the significant economic value of dengue vaccination in Brazil, even for a large program with 16 catch-up cohorts.

PIN41 - Cost Of Dengue And Cost-Effectiveness Of The Dengue Vaccine In Panama

Dengue is considered to rank fifth among the most costly diseases in terms of public costs, since its annual burden is 750 thousand DALYs¹¯². Panama shows an endemic pattern of cyclical peaks every 3 to 5 years (2005, 2009 and 2014). According to the epidemiological surveillance data, in 2005, Panama experienced one of the largest dengue epidemic; 5,489 dengue cases, 7 hemorrhagic cases and 5 deaths have been confirmed. Its incidence rate was 170 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Purpose of this study is to assess in different scenarios (routine with or without catch-up cohorts) the impact of a tetravalent dengue vaccine in Panama through a cost-effectiveness analysis, estimating the burden of the disease based on DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years). A dynamic, compartmental and deterministic, transmission model of the disease was used to estimate the burden of the disease and related costs for several vaccination scenarios with dengue vaccine compared with no vaccination (NV) over 10 years (2017-2026). By using as a reference the WHO criterion for assessing health interventions—from the social perspective, considering indirect effect and under-reporting— the maximum price per dose for the intervention to be cost-effective is estimated in U$51.4 for a vaccination in the nine year-old risk population (R9), U$74.5 for a vaccination in the nine to fifteen year-old risk population (R9+6). Additionally, when the health impact is analyzed in terms of percentage reduction of the total dengue cases by scenario, the results are the following: -26% (R9), -59% (R9+6). These results allow the determination of the maximum price for a cost-effective implementation and show that the wider the immunization schedule, the greater the effect on economy and health.

PIN45 - Cost-Effective Analysis Of The Dengue Vaccine In Costa Rica

During the period 2010-2014, Costa Rica had the second highest incidence of dengue in the region of Central America, the Caribbean and Mexico, and such position was affected by the 2013 outbreak, with nearly 50,000 registered cases; this fact, together with the investments carried out in the country for control and prevention, makes dengue a relevant concern for public health and the authorities. This study carries out a cost-effectiveness analysis of the dengue vaccine using the public information available from the Ministry of Health, the Social Security Fund, and the National Institute for Research and Education of Costa Rica for the period 2008-2015. Since the public health system coverage is larger than 80%, private health care costs are not considered. A dynamic, compartmental and deterministic, transmission model of the disease¹ was used in data calibration and scenario projection for the period 2017-2026. Six different scenarios are analyzed, including no-vaccination (NV), i.e., the case in which the country continues with the present measures; the most ambitious vaccination scenario includes a routine vaccination at the age of 9 years and 16 catch-up cohorts (R9+16). By using as a reference the WHO² criterion for assessing health interventions —from the social perspective, considering indirect effect and under-reporting— the maximum price per dose for the intervention to be cost-effective is estimated in U$73.9 for a routine vaccination in the nine year-old risk population (R9), U$80.5 for a vaccination in the nine to fifteen year-old population (R9+6). Additionally, when the health impact is analyzed in terms of reduction (%) of the total dengue cases by scenario, the results are the following: -23% (R9) and -38% (R9+6). These results show that implementing an immunization schedule could be an effective and efficient way to fight dengue.