Catastrophic Disturbance Research Articles

Remote Sensing of Forests in Bavaria: A Review

In recent decades, climatic pressures have altered the forested landscape of Bavaria. Widespread loss of trees has unevenly impacted the entire state, of which 37% is covered by forests (5% more than the national average). In 2018 and 2019—due in large part to drought and subsequent insect infestations—more tree-covered areas were lost in Bavaria than in any other German state. Moreover, the annual crown condition survey of Bavaria has revealed a decreasing trend in tree vitality since 1998. We conducted a systematic literature review regarding the remote sensing of forests in Bavaria. In total, 146 scientific articles were published between 2008 and 2023. While 88 studies took place in the Bavarian Forest National Park, only five publications covered the whole of Bavaria. Outside of the national park, the remaining 2.5 million hectares of forest in Bavaria are understudied. The most commonly studied topics were related to bark beetle infestations (24 papers); however, few papers focused on the drivers of infestations. The majority of studies utilized airborne data, while publications utilizing spaceborne data focused on multispectral; other data types were under-utilized- particularly thermal, lidar, and hyperspectral. We recommend future studies to both spatially broaden investigations to the state or national scale and to increase temporal data acquisitions together with contemporaneous in situ data. Especially in understudied topics regarding forest response to climate, catastrophic disturbances, regrowth and species composition, phenological timing, and in the sector of forest management. The utilization of remote sensing data in the forestry sector and the uptake of scientific results among stakeholders remains a challenge compared to other heavily forested European countries. An integral part of the Bavarian economy and the tourism sector, forests are also vital for climate regulation via atmospheric carbon reduction and land surface cooling. Therefore, forest monitoring remains centrally important to attaining more resilient and productive forests.

Disturbance and diversity: Lichen species richness decreases with increasing anthropogenic disturbance

Anthropogenic disturbance is rapidly increasing through habitat degradation, development, and deforestation. Gaps remain in understanding the effects of this disturbance on diverse and ecologically important organisms such as lichens. In North America, studies have focused on epiphytic macrolichens and catastrophic disturbance, largely ignoring microlichens and less severe disturbances. The Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis predicts these moderate disturbances will lead to higher species richness. Here we examine the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in the form of land management on overall lichen richness, including microlichens, and on the species richness of eight lichen functional groups. The study draws on a comprehensive data set of 872 species, in 208 one-hectare plots throughout the Southern Appalachian Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in eastern North America. A habitat quality index based on an established forestry metric was used as a proxy for anthropogenic disturbance and was quantified using a 10-part score including categories such as percent native tree canopy cover and degree of fragmentation. Linear models were used to compare habitat quality scores to overall species richness and to species richness of functional groups. Rather than following the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis, all groups uniformly follow a negative linear relationship: as disturbance increases, species richness decreases. This pattern held even for widely variable functional groups such as morphotype. Effective conservation of lichen richness should prioritize the maintenance of existing older, less-disturbed stands within large, contiguously forested areas.

Demographic recovery of corals at a wave-exposed reef following catastrophic disturbance

Rapid recovery of coral cover following acute disturbance has been documented on many reefs. Yet measuring coverage alone can mask shifts in community and demographic structure. Here, we quantify long-term changes in population size structure for three common genera (Acropora, Pocillopora, and Stylophora) at an eastern outer reef in Palau, Micronesia, following catastrophic loss of corals due to typhoon Bopha in 2012, based on size measurements from 3648 coral colonies. Mean colony size returned to pre-disturbance levels within 4 and 6 years for Stylophora and Pocillopora, respectively. By 2020, Pocillopora colony density far exceeded pre-disturbance levels, with rapid successful recruitment following typhoon Bopha. Despite recovery of Acropora colony density by 2020, populations remained dominated by smaller colonies. We demonstrate that full demographic recovery can occur more rapidly for pocilloporids (within 6 years) compared to Acropora which had not fully recovered by 8 years post-disturbance, possibly due to fewer annual recruitment events and larger maximum colony sizes. Our results highlight the value of demographic metrics as early indicators of recovery.

Morphology of the Buluus, Ulakhan-Taryn aufeis, conditions of its occurrence and stable oxygen and hydrogen isotope variations in the lower part

Aufeis is one of the most dangerous natural phenomena. The negative impact of aufeis is determined by the unexpected flooding of the territory and subsequent freezing of water, the formation of ice barriers, the icing of underground structures and communications (mines, tunnels, culverts, and sewer wells), as well as the icing of roads and railways, coastal hydraulic structures, etc. There are cases when explosions of aufeis mounds produce catastrophic disturbances within a few seconds. The aufeis that forms annually in the valley of the Buluus Creek is one of the most famous and studied aufeis of Central Yakutia. The aufeis was sampled from a vertical section. The aufeis is layered, and the thickness of the layers is 3-10 cm. In the upper part of the aufeis, the ice layers are thicker than in the lower. Sampling from the aufeis ice was carried out using a 5.1-cm-diameter steel crown driven by a Bosch electric drill. Measurements of the isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen in ice were performed using a Picarro L 2130-i laser isotope analyzer. The isotopic composition of the Buluus ice varies in a narrow range: δ18O values vary from −20.2 to −21.9‰, δ2H values vary from −159.5 to −173.7‰. Generally, the ice is isotopically slightly enriched compared to the surface water of the Ulakhan-Taryn creek, where the δ18O value is −22.18‰ and the δ2H value is −175.1%. Groundwater is isotopically close to the creek water; its isotope composition is also isotopically enriched compared to the ice of the aufeis, with δ18O values varying from −22.17 to −22.25‰ and δ2H values varying from −173.7 to −175.1‰.

Beta‐diversity within coral atolls: Terrestrial species turnover increases with cyclone frequencies

AbstractAimAtolls are a widely distributed, common type of tropical ecosystem, each consisting of an annular coral reef and up to several hundred individual islets sitting on the reef platform. The small land areas and low elevation render the terrestrial communities susceptible to local extinctions from overwash and inundation due to tropical cyclones. Such recurring catastrophic disturbances should be expected to drive strong priority effects and historical contingency in species assembly, thus also promoting species turnover within atolls. This stands contradictory to the received wisdom of atolls consisting of numerous uniform, replicated island systems. We tested the hypothesis that the individual islets within an atoll exhibit compositional turnover and that this species turnover within atolls is related to cyclone frequency.LocationAtolls worldwide.Time PeriodPresent.Taxa StudiedVascular plants, reptiles, birds.MethodsWe compiled a global dataset at the level of islets for species presence/absence within atolls. We obtained long‐term (80 year) tropical cyclone frequency data for each atoll from the NOAA hurricane database and used Bayesian regression to estimate the effects of tropical cyclone frequency on species turnover within atolls.ResultsWe consistently measured high within‐atoll species turnover (i.e., between the individual islets within an atoll) on atolls worldwide. The degree of within‐atoll species turnover increases with increasing tropical cyclone frequency. Atolls that are more frequently hit by tropical cyclones show higher species turnover between their islets than those that occur outside the tropical cyclone belt.Main ConclusionsTropical cyclones are a significant driver of the community assemblages on atolls. These catastrophic disturbances promote a heterogenous atoll landscape, which challenges perceptions that the islets within an atoll are identical replicates of the entire atoll terrestrial community. Biodiversity surveys undertaken at the islet‐level (alpha‐diversity) might therefore not be representative of the entire atoll metacommunity (gamma) diversity.

Old reserves and ancient buds fuel regrowth of coast redwood after catastrophic fire.

For long-lived organisms, investment in insurance strategies such as reserve energy storage can enable resilience to resource deficits, stress or catastrophic disturbance. Recent fire in California damaged coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) groves, consuming all foliage on some of the tallest and oldest trees on Earth. Burned trees recovered through resprouting from roots, trunk and branches, necessarily supported by nonstructural carbon reserves. Nonstructural carbon reserves can be many years old, but direct use of old carbon has rarely been documented and never in such large, old trees. We found some sprouts contained the oldest carbon ever observed to be remobilized for growth. For certain trees, simulations estimate up to half of sprout carbon was acquired in photosynthesis more than 57 years prior, and direct observations in sapwood show trees can access reserves at least as old. Sprouts also emerged from ancient buds-dormant under bark for centuries. For organisms with millennial lifespans, traits enabling survival of infrequent but catastrophic events may represent an important energy sink. Remobilization of decades-old photosynthate after disturbance demonstrates substantial amounts of nonstructural carbon within ancient trees cycles on slow, multidecadal timescales.

Natural Canopy Disturbance Patterns and Ecological Silviculture in the Alabama Fall Line Hills

Abstract As a natural disturbance-based approach to silviculture is increasingly embraced by forest managers, quantitative reference conditions of natural disturbance patterns are paramount. We used LiDAR data to quantify resultant structural patterns from an EF3 tornado on the Oakmulgee Ranger District of Talladega National Forest in the Alabama Fall Line Hills, USA. We found the zone of catastrophic disturbance totaled 123 ha, had a mean width of 360 m, and residual trees were randomly distributed. This zone was buffered by an edge zone of intermediate-severity disturbance where trees were removed individually and in groups. The edge zone averaged 220 m in width. In total, the study area included seventy-nine stands and the percentage of stand area damaged ranged from < 1% to 94%. We suggest that clearcut, seed tree, and shelterwood with reserves regeneration methods may be appropriate analogs to natural canopy disturbance in the Fall Line Hills region. These catastrophic disturbance entries should be buffered from undisturbed neighborhoods by a system that retains mature forest structures and would constitute a zone of intermediate-severity disturbance. Our approach may be used as a template to expand our understanding of natural canopy disturbance patterns in other regions and forest types. Study Implications: In regions where tornadoes are a natural component of the disturbance regime, including much of the southeastern United States, we suggest that clearcut, seed tree, or shelterwood with reserves regeneration methods may be used to approximate the zone of catastrophic disturbance that corresponds to the tornado track. We observed that reserve tree spatial patterns were random, but residual trees could be selected based on desired species or protection of important biophysical features such as seeps. Surrounding the catastrophic disturbance zone was an edge zone of intermediate-severity disturbance where trees were removed individually and in variably sized groups. We suggest that the structural patterns documented in this edge zone may be created through variable retention harvesting.

Trends in post‐1950 riparian vegetation recovery in coastal catchments of NSW Australia: Implications for remote sensing analysis, forecasting and river management

AbstractExtensive riparian vegetation clearance occurred in many rivers of southeastern Australia throughout the 19th and 20th century, post colonisation. With improvements in river management practices, coincident with a period of minimal flooding, vegetation recovery of riparian corridors has been occurring since the 1980s in all coastal catchments of New South Wales (NSW). However, the catchment‐by‐catchment spatial pattern and temporal trends, trajectories and rates of vegetative recovery remain unknown. We reconstruct a 70‐year time series of change in riparian vegetation coverage for all rivers in coastal catchments of NSW, utilising historical aerial imagery, Landsat and Sentinel data and a manual digitisation and machine learning method. We quantify and statistically analyse decadal trends in woody and non‐woody vegetation coverage along 19 485 km of stream length in 20 catchments. Across the region, there has been, on average, a 40% increase in vegetation coverage along riparian corridors since the 1950s, with some catchments increasing towards a current day coverage of between 60% and 80%. However, the trends vary by subregion and by catchment. An early logarithmic increase occurred up to 2004 on the North coast, and a recent and accelerated exponential increase since 1995 has occurred on the South coast. After a steep initial increase, riparian corridor vegetation coverage has fluctuated on the Central coast since about 1995. We used these linear, exponential and logarithmic regressions to undertake preliminary forecasts of possible future timeframes of riparian vegetation change, based on several climate, management and natural disaster disturbance scenarios. If the current trend continues, riparian vegetation coverage can reach 70% across the region by 2055. However, if management practices change or catastrophic disturbance events such as fire and flood occur, increases in riparian vegetation coverage could be set back by up to 30 to 40 years.

Disasters collide at the intersection of extreme weather and infectious diseases.

Natural disasters interact to affect the resilience and prosperity of communities and disproportionately affect low income families and communities of colour. However, due to lack of a common theoretical framework, these are rarely quantified. Observing severe weather events (e.g. hurricanes and tornadoes) and epidemics (e.g. COVID-19) unfolding in southeastern US communities led us to conjecture that interactions among catastrophic disturbances might be much more considerable than previously recognized. For instance, hurricane evacuations increase human aggregation, a factor that affects the transmission of acute infections like SARS-CoV-2. Similarly, weather damage to health infrastructure can reduce a community's ability to provide services to people who are ill. As globalization and human population and movement continue to increase and weather events are becoming more intense, such complex interactions are expected to magnify and significantly impact environmental and human health.

Reconstructing spatiotemporal dynamics of mixed conifer and broad‐leaved forests with a spatially explicit individual‐based dynamic vegetation model

AbstractA dynamic vegetation model was adapted to a mixed forest of deciduous broad‐leaved trees and evergreen conifers in Hokkaido, the northernmost main island of Japan, located within a transition zone between cool‐temperate and sub‐boreal forest ecosystems. In this forest, elevation and a terrestrial‐wetness index affect tree biomass and the percentage of conifers. We maximized agreement between this observed pattern and model output by calibrating parameters that control drought and excessive soil‐moisture tolerance, establishment rate, and background mortality rate. In the simulation, biomass increased as a single peak curve with simulation year, while the percentage of conifers increased until the end of 200 simulation years. The 75‐year simulated forest was most comparable to the adapted forest, consistent with the average frequency of catastrophic storm disturbances in Hokkaido. The model also reconstructed a reasonable succession pattern based on temperature and soil moisture. Therefore, the model mechanistically reconstructed the mixed forest via spatial niche segregation and succession after catastrophic disturbances. However, the model did not reconstruct the percentages of broad‐leaved trees and conifers of forests prior to the disturbance in independent validation plots, demonstrating that additional processes should be considered in future models.

Dynamic Characteristics of Vegetation Change Based on Reconstructed Heterogenous NDVI in Seismic Regions

The need to protect forests and enhance the capacity of mountain ecosystems is highlighted in the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15. The worst-hit areas of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in southwest China were mountainous regions with high biodiversity and the impacted area is typical of other montane regions, with the need for detecting vegetation changes following the impacts of catastrophes. While the widely used remotely sensed vegetation indicator NDVI is available from various satellite data sources, these satellites are available for different monitoring periods and durations. Combining these datasets proved challenging to make a continuous characterization of vegetation change over an extended time period. In this study, compared with linear regression, multiple linear regression, and random forest, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) performed best with an average R2 of 0.819 (leave-one-out cross-validation). Thus, the CNNs model was selected to establish the map of the overlapping periods of two remote-sensing products: SPOT-VGT NDVI and PROBA-V NDVI, to reconstruct a SPOT-VGT NDVI for the period from June 2014 to December 2018 in the worst-hit areas of the Wenchuan earthquake. We analyzed the original and reconstructed SPOT-VGT NDVI in the hard-hit areas of the Wenchuan earthquake from 1999 to 2018, and we concluded that NDVI showed an overall upward trend throughout the study period, but experienced a sharp decline in 2008 and reached its lowest value a year later (2009). Vegetation recovery was rapid from 2009 until 2011 after which, it returned to a pattern of slower natural growth (2012–2018). The Longmenshan fault zone experienced the greatest vegetation damage and initiation of recovery there has caused the overall regional average recovery to lag by 1–2 years. In areas where the land was denuded of vegetation (i.e., effectively all vegetation was stripped from the surface) after the earthquake, the damage exceeded what was experienced anywhere else in the entire study area, and by 2018 it remained unrestored. In the 15 years since the earthquake, the areas that were denuded were expected to recover to the level of restoration equivalent with the NDVI of 2007, as was the case in other earthquake-damaged regions. In addition to the earthquake and the immediate loss of vegetation, the Chinese government’s Grain for Green Policy, the elevation ranges within the region, the forest’s phenological conditions, and human activities all had an impact on vegetation recovery and restoration. The reconstructed NDVI provides a long-term continuous record, which contributes to the identifying changes that are improving predictive forest recovery models and to better vegetation management following catastrophic disturbances, such as earthquakes.

Biodiversity dynamics in primary mid-taiga spruce forests after total windthrow in the Vodlozersky National Park, Russia

In windthrow-affected areas, the research of biota is of high relevance taking into account the lack of knowledge about the dynamics of their flora, soil properties, and tree stand regeneration. An important task is to study the mechanisms of the natural dynamics of plant communities after major disturbances in large boreal forests. This paper was aimed to investigate the effects of a total windthrow event on the dynamics of biodiversity in pristine mid-boreal spruce (Picea abies) forests. The study was carried out in the Vodlozersky National Park (Northwest Russia: Arkhangelsk Region and Republic of Karelia), situated in the northern and middle taiga subzones. A series of permanent sample plots was established in an area affected by massive windthrow in 2000. The windthrow consequences of the forest communities have been studied, starting from the year of the event (2000) at 2–5-year intervals. A soil survey has been conducted in 2016. Windthrown trees, situated in the sample plots, were counted by species and diameter classes. Natural regeneration was estimated in subplots with a division to height cohorts and vitality status. Geobotanical relevé sampling of the ground vegetation has been conducted in 1 × 1-m permanent plots. Aphyllophoroid fungi (Basidiomycota) were counted by fruit bodies. Main soil pits and partial pits were dug. The morphological description of soils was produced in both undisturbed and disturbed sites in the study area. Obtained data, covering 20 years of surveys of various components of the forest plant communities (tree stand, advance regeneration, ground vegetation, wood-destroying fungi, soils), were analysed. We found that 16–20 years after the windthrow event the species and age structure of the tree stand has been considerably changed due to the forest stand rejuvenation. Post-windthrow regeneration of coniferous species in the true-moss group of forests has been successfully going on. By the end of the second decade after the windthrow event, cowberry spruce forests contained 4300 individuals/0.01 km2 of viable spruce regeneration, including 1500 individuals/0.01 km2 belonging to the large size category of spruce trees. In the bilberry-Sphagnum-type forest, spruce regeneration amounted to 8700 individuals/0.01 km2, including 2200 individuals/0.01 km2 belonging to the large size category of spruce trees. This amount is sufficient to ensure the development of spruce-dominated communities in the future. Since the forest ecosystems were recovering after the windthrow, the biodiversity of changed, that was reflected in an increase in the species composition of the ground vegetation and fungal communities. Over the study period (2001–2021), surveys of the sample plots demonstrated 83 aphyllophoroid fungi species, including five species included in the Red Data Book of the Republic of Karelia, as well as 22 taxa, considered old-growth forest indicator- and specialist species. The number of wood-destroying fungi species was the highest in the period from the 12th to the 19th post-windthrow years. The changes in soil properties on windthrow-affected sites were more explicit in the upper horizons: soil acidity decreased; both potassium and carbon content increased; nitrogen distribution across horizons became more even. An increase in the carbon-nitrogen ratio was detected in the Е and BF horizons. The obtained data can be used for predicting the regeneration of pristine mid-boreal spruce forests affected by catastrophic disturbances.

Addressing nonresponse bias in forest inventory change estimation using response homogeneity classifications

Estimating amounts of change in forest resources over time is a key function of most national forest inventories (NFI). As this information is used broadly for many management and policy purposes, it is imperative that accurate estimations are made from the survey sample. Robust sampling designs are often used to help ensure representation of the population, but often the full sample is unrealized due to hazardous conditions or possibly lack of land access permission. Potentially, bias may be imparted to the sample if the nonresponse is nonrandom with respect to forest characteristics, which becomes more difficult to assess for change estimation methods that require measurements of the same sample plots at two points in time, i.e., remeasurement. To examine potential nonresponse bias in change estimates, two synthetic populations were constructed: 1) a typical NFI population consisting of both forest and nonforest plots, and 2) a population that mimics a large catastrophic disturbance event within a forested population. Comparisons of estimates under various nonresponse scenarios were made using a standard implementation of post-stratified estimation as well as an alternative approach that groups plots having similar response probabilities (response homogeneity). When using the post-stratified estimators, the amount of change was overestimated for the NFI population and was underestimated for the disturbance population, whereas the response homogeneity approach produced nearly unbiased estimates under the assumption of equal response probability within groups. These outcomes suggest that formal strategies may be needed to obtain accurate change estimates in the presence of nonrandom nonresponse.

Season and prey identity mediate the effect of predators on parasites in rodents: a test of the healthy herds hypothesis.

The healthy herds hypothesis (HHH) suggests that predators decrease parasitism in their prey. Repeated tests of this hypothesis across a range of taxa and ecosystems have revealed significant variation in the effect of predators on parasites in prey. Differences in the response to predators (1) between prey taxa, (2) between seasons, and (3) before and after catastrophic disturbance are common in natural systems, but typically ignored in empirical tests of the HHH. We used a predator exclusion experiment to measure the effect of these heterogeneities on the tri-trophic interaction among predators, parasites and prey. We experimentally excluded mammalian predators from the habitats of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) and cotton mice (Peromyscus gossypinus) and measured the effect of exclusion on gastrointestinal parasites in these rodents. Our experiment spanned multiple seasons and before and after a prescribed burn. We found that the exclusion of the same predators had opposite effects on the parasites of small mammal prey species. Additionally, we found that the effect of mammal exclusion on parasitism differed before versus after fire disturbance. Finally, we saw that the effect of predator exclusion was highly dependent on prey capture season. Significant effects of exclusion emerged primarily in the fall and winter months. The presence of so many different effects in one relatively simple system suggests that predator effects on parasites in prey are highly context dependent.

Housing starts and the associated wood products carbon storage by county by Shared Socioeconomic Pathway in the United States.

Harvested wood products found in the built environment are an important carbon sink, helping to mitigate climate change, and their trends in use are determined by economic and demographic factors, which vary spatially. Spatially detailed projections of construction and stored carbon are needed for industry and public decision making, including for appreciating trends in values at risk from catastrophic disturbances. We specify econometric models of single-family and multifamily housing starts by U.S. Census Region, design a method for their spatial downscaling to the county level, and project their quantities and carbon content according to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Starts are projected to decline across all scenarios and potentially drop to below housing replacement levels under SSP3 by mid-century. Wood products carbon stored nationally in structures in use and in landfills is projected to grow across all scenarios but with significant spatial heterogeneity related to disparate trends in construction across counties, ranging from strong growth in the urban counties of the coastal South and West to stagnation in rural counties of the Great Plains and the northern Rockies. The estimated average annual carbon stored in wood products used in and discarded from US residential housing units between 2015-2070 ranged from 51 million t CO2e in SSP3 to 85 million t CO2e in SSP5, representing 47% to 78% of total carbon uptake relative to uptake by all wood products in the United States in 2019.

What determines the diversity and succession of lichens inhabiting post-bark beetle snags in the Western Carpathians?

The life strategy of Norway spruce allows the recovery of European spruce forests in a scenario of catastrophic disturbances caused by the European spruce bark beetle. However, little is known about how the development of this insect infestation has influenced the preservation of the ecological balance in these forests over the last decades. Based on the upper montane spruce forests in the Polish Western Carpathians, we decided to check what species of lichens are using the decaying wood of post-bark beetle snags and how the progressive changes in wood hardness and stand decomposition affect the process of species exchange. In 2018–2019, we investigated spruce snags on permanent monitoring plots in Gorce National Park, whose cause and time of death have been recorded since 1999, and earlier in 1992 and 1997. The study covered 374 post-bark beetle spruce snags at 76 sites. We found 84 species, including 77 lichens, 6 lichenicolous fungi and one non-lichenised fungus, 15 of which were exclusively wood-inhabiting species in Gorce range. Using generalised linear models, the wood age (A) and the scale of the forest stand breakdown phenomenon (B) were compared with the altitude (C), the aspects of hillside exposure (D) and the forest plant community (E) in the assessment of their effect on lichen species diversity and abundance. "A” was the most important of the tested factors, significantly and positively influencing both parameters, while “B–D” only weakly influenced lichen abundance. Five groups of wood age, significantly different in the lichen abundance and the composition of species were distinguished, and a characteristic combination of dominant species was determined for each of them. Based on the measurements of the wood hardness under the thalli using Shore’s method, the succession of species during the colonisation of the post-bark beetle snags was determined and four groups of species were selected, most frequent in the successive stages of wood decay process. The wood of spruces killed by the bark beetle is both an important substrate enabling the survival of obligately wood-inhabiting lichen species, as well as providing a habitat supporting the maintenance of epiphytes in the Carpathian forests. This study extends the knowledge about the specific requirements of lichens inhabiting spruce snags, as well as the pace and course of lichen succession on this substrate.

Combining financial costs and statistical power to optimize monitoring to detect recoveries of species after megafire

AbstractAimMegafire plays a crucial role in driving the distribution of biodiversity around the world. Long‐term monitoring is vital for understanding how species are impacted immediately by megafire and subsequently respond over time. However, monitoring should be designed with sufficient statistical power to detect impact and recovery. In this study, we developed a simulation framework for optimizing the design of biodiversity monitoring programmes to detect population recoveries after megafire.LocationVictoria, Australia.Time period2019–2020.Major taxa studiedVertebrates.MethodsWe collated species distribution models for 45 priority vertebrates most likely to respond to management after the 2019–2020 megafires in Victoria, Australia. We combined these models with fire severity maps to optimize the location of monitoring sites in and around the fire footprint. We simulated the impact of the megafires on species distributions and modelled plausible recoveries over the next 10 years. Using estimates of detectability for a suite of preferred sampling methods, we simulated monitoring at pairs of burnt and unburnt sites to evaluate the statistical power to detect the modelled recoveries. We tested the sensitivity of power to alternative monitoring designs, rates of recovery and monitoring budgets.ResultsPriority regions to establish monitoring sites varied by taxonomic group. Power to detect population recoveries increased as the monitoring budget increased, as the recovery rate increased and when the proportion of sites in burnt compared with unburnt habitat increased. According to the optimal monitoring design, an AUD $9M budget could detect 90% of recoveries to pre‐fire levels in 40% of species with >80% power. Power was highest for mammals, followed by birds, reptiles and amphibians.Main conclusionsOur simulation approach allowed us to test the relative performance of alternative post‐fire monitoring designs ahead of time. Although we focused on megafire, our approach could easily be applied to detect population recoveries after any large‐scale catastrophic disturbance.

Fostering Resilient Health Systems in India: Providing Care for PLHIV Under the Shadow of COVID-19.

IntroductionThe novel coronavirus or COVID-19 has resulted in major human casualties, and extreme socio-economic crises causing catastrophic disturbances to health systems and communities alike. This study qualitatively explores the challenges experienced by healthcare providers while providing services to people living with HIV (PLHIV) during the pandemic outbreak and subsequent lockdown in India. The paper also explores strategies developed and adopted to provide continued care for PLHIV.MethodsUsing an empirical phenomenological approach, qualitative in-depth telephonic interviews were conducted with 19 HIV care providers from five states in India. The recorded interviews were transcribed and analyzed using inductive thematic analysis with the help of Dedoose software.ResultsFrom the analysis of participants' narratives, three main themes emerged: (1) Challenges of working during a pandemic; (2) Remodeling care delivery to ensure continuity of services; (3) Resilience.DiscussionOur findings highlight the challenges that providers faced, despite which, adaptive efforts were made to continue providing quality care for PLHIV through ingenious and innovative strategies. To foster resilient health systems, health workers are the primary stakeholders. We recommend formal social protection, comprehensive primary healthcare support, and sufficient capacity building for health workers for their self-care and pandemic preparedness.

Dynamics of southern beech (Nothofagaceae) stands in the lowland North Island of New Zealand

ABSTRACT In south-central Chile, the dynamics of southern beech (Nothofagaceae) stands vary predictably along climatic gradients. Beeches form persistent stands at high elevations, but their establishment on lowland sites depends mainly on catastrophic disturbances. In New Zealand, nearly all studies of beech forest dynamics to date have reported all-sized, persistent populations. However, previous work has focused largely on the South Island or on North Island mountains, where beeches are widespread and often dominant. Little is known about beech dynamics in the warm North Island lowlands, where beeches are less common. We aimed to clarify the circumstances that enable beeches to establish on lowland sites in the North Island. We measured population structures of beeches and associated species on 11 plots distributed across a range of climate, lithology and topography. On sites where the most shade-tolerant broadleaved trees were absent or uncommon, all-sized populations showed that beech regeneration did not depend on major disturbances. These stands were located mostly on steep faces or ridges with soil carbon:nitrogen ratios > 18, usually with ericaceous understoreys. On sites with higher N availability, where shade-tolerant broadleaved trees were abundant, beech populations were generally sparser, with restricted age ranges. One of these ± even-aged beech stands appeared to have established after windthrow, the other four after fires. Recent dieback of Weinmannia racemosa associated with insect attack had resulted in another wave of beech regeneration in one of the post-fire stands. Establishment on landslides appears to only rarely enable beeches to capture new sites in the lowland North Island. We conclude that beeches form stable self-replacing stands on lowland North Island sites with low nitrogen availability, but that exogenous disturbances occasionally enable beeches to establish as pioneers on sites with higher nitrogen availability. The early successionalrole commonly seen in lowland south-central Chile thus appears less widespread in New Zealand.

Concordant phylogeographic responses to large-scale coastal disturbance in intertidal macroalgae and their epibiota.

Major ecological disturbance events can provide opportunities to assess multispecies responses to upheaval. In particular, catastrophic disturbances that regionally extirpate habitat-forming species can potentially influence the genetic diversity of large numbers of codistributed taxa. However, due to the rarity of such disturbance events over ecological timeframes, the genetic dynamics of multispecies recolonization processes have remained little understood. Here, we use single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from multiple coastal species to track the dynamics of cocolonization events in response to ancient earthquake disturbance in southern New Zealand. Specifically, we use a comparative phylogeographic approach to understand the extent to which epifauna (with varying ecological associations with their macroalgal hosts) share comparable spatial and temporal recolonization patterns. Our study reveals concordant disturbance-related phylogeographic breaks in two intertidal macroalgal species along with two associated epibiotic species (a chiton and an isopod). By contrast, two codistributed species, one of which is an epibiotic amphipod and the other a subtidal macroalga, show few, if any, genetic effects of palaeoseismic coastal uplift. Phylogeographic model selection reveals similar post-uplift recolonization routes for the epibiotic chiton and isopod and their macroalgal hosts. Additionally, codemographic analyses support synchronous population expansions of these four phylogeographically similar taxa. Our findings indicate that coastal paleoseismic activity has driven concordant impacts on multiple codistributed species, with concerted recolonization events probably facilitated by macroalgal rafting. These results highlight that high-resolution comparative genomic data can help reconstruct concerted multispecies responses to recent ecological disturbance.