AbstractThe prevalence of online gambling and the potential for related harm necessitate predictive models for early detection of problem gambling. The present study expands upon prior research by incorporating a cross-country approach to predict self-reported problem gambling using player-tracking data in an online casino setting. Utilizing a secondary dataset comprising 1743 British, Canadian, and Spanish online casino gamblers (39% female; mean age = 42.4 years; 27.4% scoring 8 + on the Problem Gambling Severity Index), the present study examined the association between demographic, behavioral, and monetary intensity variables with self-reported problem gambling, employing a hierarchical logistic regression model. The study also tested the efficacy of five different machine learning models to predict self-reported problem gambling among online casino gamblers from different countries. The findings indicated that behavioral variables, such as taking self-exclusions, frequent in-session monetary depositing, and account depletion, were paramount in predicting self-reported problem gambling over monetary intensity variables. The study also demonstrated that while machine learning models can effectively predict problem gambling across different countries without country-specific training data, incorporating such data improved the overall model performance. This suggests that specific behavioral patterns are universal, yet nuanced differences across countries exist that can improve prediction models.
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