Case Study In Cape Town Research Articles

Assessing the water metabolism of coastal urban areas based on the water mass balance framework across time periods: A case study of Cape Town, South Africa

The status of water resources in many coastal cities has become increasingly fragile. In a changing climate, the amount and intensity of rainfall have continued to decline, causing some coastal regions to experience severe drought and deteriorated water supply situation. This article presents a comprehensive study of the urban water metabolism of Cape Town, South Africa. A water mass balance framework was utilized to examine the city's water system across four distinct periods. In addition, the water-energy nexus before and after the drought crisis was evaluated. The key findings include a large amount of surface runoff in the Cape Town area that was not utilized before the drought crisis, resulting in a natural loss potential of water supply that is 2.54 times greater than water used for supply systems. During the drought, per capita water consumption dropped by a substantial 25%; at the same time, the total rate of water loss experienced a substantial decrease of approximately 21%. Since the pandemic, Cape Town's water resources policy has shifted to diversifying water sources, and the use of wastewater and natural water losses will be optimized by more than 32% in 2040 to achieve a water-sensitive city. Future research should explore the temporal and spatial dynamics of urban water flows, the impact of socioeconomic factors, and the integration of water system optimization models for enhanced urban water management.

Optimizing Local Climate Zones through Clustering for Surface Urban Heat Island Analysis in Building Height-Scarce Cities: A Cape Town Case Study

Studying air Urban Heat Islands (AUHI) in African cities is limited by building height data scarcity and sparse air temperature (Tair) networks, leading to classification confusion and gaps in Tair data. Satellite imagery used in surface UHI (SUHI) applications overcomes the gaps which befall AUHI, thus making it the primary focus of UHI studies in areas with limited Tair stations. Consequently, we used Landsat 30 m imagery to analyse SUHI patterns using Land Surface Temperature (LST) data. Local climate zones (LCZ) as a UHI study tool have been documented to not result in distinct thermal environments at the surface level per LCZ class. The goal in this study was thus to explore relationships between LCZs and LST patterns, aiming to create a building height (BH)-independent LCZ framework capable of creating distinct thermal environments to study SUHI in African cities where LiDAR data are scarce. Random forests (RF) classified LCZ in R, and the Single Channel Algorithm (SCA) extracted LST via the Google Earth Engine. Statistical analyses, including ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD, assessed thermal distinctiveness, using a 95% confidence interval and 1 °C threshold for practical significance. Semi-Automated Agglomerative Clustering (SAAC) and Automated Divisive Clustering (ADC) grouped LCZs into thermally distinct clusters based on physical characteristics and LST data internal patterns. Built LCZs (1–9) had higher mean LSTs; LCZ 8 reached 37.6 °C in Spring, with a smaller interquartile range (IQR) (34–36 °C) and standard deviation (SD) (1.85 °C), compared to natural classes (A–G) with LCZ 11 (A–B) at 14.9 °C/LST, 17–25 °C/IQR, and 4.2 °C SD. Compact LCZs (2, 3) and open LCZs (5, 6), as well as similar LCZs in composition and density, did not show distinct thermal environments even with building height included. The SAAC and ADC clustered the 14 LCZs into six thermally distinct clusters, with the smallest LST difference being 1.19 °C, above the 1 °C threshold. This clustering approach provides an optimal LCZ framework for SUHI studies, transferable to different urban areas without relying on BH, making it more suitable than the full LCZ typology, particularly for the African context. This clustered framework ensures a thermal distinction between clusters large enough to have practical significance, which is more useful in urban planning than statistical significance.

Forecasting of Standardized Precipitation Index Using Hybrid Models: A Case Study of Cape Town, South Africa

Forecasting of Standardized Precipitation Index Using Hybrid Models: A Case Study of Cape Town, South Africa

Data-Driven Decision Making in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A City of Cape Town Case Study

In the event of a crisis, such as COVID-19, the decisions and subsequent actions taken by the local government are one of the primary sources of support to the local population. Yet the processes through which these decisions are reached and the data engineering advancements made for and during events are poorly reported. Understanding the capabilities and constraints in which city officials operate is essential for impactful academic research alongside global city comparison and discussion on best practices in reaching optimal and data-informed decisions. This is especially pertinent for the global South, where informality in housing and the economy presents further challenges to appropriate resource distribution in a crisis. Here, we present insights into the City of Cape Town’s data-driven response and subsequent data engineering and analytical developments throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This is based upon a review of internal documentation including a close-out report which summarised semi-structured interviews with staff involved in the data work stream. The paper reports on the deliverables produced during 2020 by the data work stream and outlines specific challenges the city faced and its data-informed response in the areas of (1) quantifying costs for COVID-19 initiatives, (2) dealing with a surge in fatalities, (3) guiding scarce public resources to respond to an evolving crisis, and (4) data sharing. We demonstrate the real-term value of incorporating data into the decision-making process and conclude by outlining key factors that cities and researchers must consider as a part of the usual business to effectively assist their populations during times of stress and crisis.

Testing self-perception theory with agent-based simulation

Conventional wisdom is that a person's attitude towards an issue dictates their behaviour. In contrast, self-perception theory accounts for how a person forms their attitude. In the context of this paper, the theory asserts that a person can, in the absence of prior experience, establish an attitude towards cycling based on observing their own, hopefully, positive experience. The adaptive agent-based model, MATSim, allows one to test the self-perception theory. The case study in Cape Town, South Africa, demonstrates that as much as 7.8% of people introduced to cycling will experience it as positive, opening the door for adoption.

Inequality and Urban Density: Socio-economic Drivers of Uneven Densification in Cape Town

Global policies promote urban compaction to achieve sustainable development. This article highlights the limits of analysing densification at the city scale and advocates for a more granular approach. The case study of Cape Town shows how overall consolidation has been mainly driven by poor households crowding into already dense neighbourhoods on the urban periphery. This has aggravated historic segregation and intensified urban management challenges. Meanwhile, formal private sector driven densification strengthens the social and economic vibrancy of affluent neighbourhoods. This article argues that uneven residential patterns reflect deep-seated social inequalities that are amplified through labour and property markets. Satellite data also illustrates how Cape Town’s built-up area has changed between 1998 and 2019. Based on geo-spatial analyses, the article suggests that taking these drivers seriously is crucial to promoting a denser and more equitable urban form. Aligning housing policies with spatial transformation and economic development objectives offer possibilities for change.

Conceptualising a GIS-based risk quantification framework for fire spread in informal settlements: A Cape Town case study

Informal settlements are home to approximately one billion people globally and are growing due to rapid urbanisation in less economically developed countries. Their dense layouts, often combined with light, combustible building materials make them highly vulnerable to fires. In some cases fires have spread through hundreds or thousands of homes in a single fire, rendering the inhabitants homeless. Tackling this issue requires a sound understanding of the many spatial factors which can contribute to fire spread between individual dwellings and into the wider settlement. This paper presents initial methods for assessing and quantifying fire risk in informal settlements due to a variety of spatial factors in the case of Cape Town, South Africa – a city which has a notable history of devastating informal settlement fires. GIS techniques were used to obtain data to build a model for the quantification of risk imposed by the settlement layout with respect to three key metrics; dwelling spacing, edge density and critical patch size. The results of the risk model and data of past fires suggest that the settlement layout is a critical factor in determining the ability of large fires to establish within a settlement. A framework for additional infrastructural and environmental risk is also presented, identifying the need for a wide-ranging interdisciplinary approach to the problem of urban fires.

Turning a Blind Eye to African Refugees and Immigrants in a Tourist City: A Case-study of Blame-shifting in Cape Town

What role do municipalities play in limiting xenophobia in all its forms and what should these bodies do in promoting the integration of African immigrants? This paper analyzes a case study of Cape Town's policies and programs concerning African immigrants and refugees following the 2008 xenophobic crisis, up to 2016. Municipalities as a separate sphere of the government have their own space to address socio-political problems and to shape local alliances and urban life. Despite being a tourist-led, gentrifying city which substantially draws on vulnerable African immigrant labor, Cape Town's leaders and businesses, however, have no explicit policies or programs to address xenophobia a ticking time bomb; and they tend to shift the blame to other actors. City leaders and employers see African immigrants in an instrumental way (as mere labor; a financial burden and not as potential citizens). This paper focuses on local government's definition of the foreign immigrant problem and its poor record of reducing the drivers of xenophobic conflicts in South African cities, recognizing that while cities are not the only players, they certainly are the closest to the problem. The paper concludes that the city needs a proactive, comprehensive approach, recognizing migrants and their organizations, especially foreign workers, legal immigrants and refugees, as key city builders, stakeholders and potential citizens in the city. The paper draws on interviews with city officials, migrants and asylum seekers in the City of Cape Town.

Garden irrigation as household end-use in the presence of supplementary groundwater supply

Garden irrigation is a significant and variable household water end‑use, while groundwater abstraction may be a notable supplementary water source available in some serviced residential areas. Residential groundwater is abstracted by means of garden boreholes or well points and – in the study area – abstracted groundwater is typically used for garden irrigation. The volume irrigated per event is a function of event duration, frequency of application and flow rate, which in turn are dependent on numerous factors that vary by source – including water availability, pressure and price. The temperature variation of groundwater abstraction pipes at residential properties was recorded and analysed as part of this study in order to estimate values for three model inputs, namely, pumping event duration, irrigation frequency, and flow rate. This research incorporates a basic end‑use model for garden irrigation, with inputs derived from the case study in Cape Town, South Africa. The model was subsequently used to stochastically evaluate garden irrigation. Over an 11-d period, 68 garden irrigation events were identified in the sample group of 10 residential properties. The average garden irrigation event duration was 2 h 16 min and the average daily garden irrigation event volume was 1.39 m3.

Computational urban design prototyping: Interactive planning synthesis methods—a case study in Cape Town

This article is motivated by the fact that in Cape Town, South Africa, approximately 7.5 million people live in informal settlements and focuses on potential upgrading strategies for such sites. To this end, we developed a computational method for rapid urban design prototyping. The corresponding planning tool generates urban layouts including street network, blocks, parcels and buildings based on an urban designer’s specific requirements. It can be used to scale and replicate a developed urban planning concept to fit different sites. To facilitate the layout generation process computationally, we developed a new data structure to represent street networks, land parcellation, and the relationship between the two. We also introduced a nested parcellation strategy to reduce the number of irregular shapes generated due to algorithmic limitations. Network analysis methods are applied to control the distribution of buildings in the communities so that preferred neighborhood relationships can be considered in the design process. Finally, we demonstrate how to compare designs based on various urban analysis measures and discuss the limitations that arise when we apply our method in practice, especially when dealing with more complex urban design scenarios.

Visibility Improvements through Information Provision regarding Sun Glare: a Case Study in Cape Town

Abstract The sun is most hazardous to drivers when it is close to the horizon, particularly within an hour after sunrise (dawn) and an hour before sunset (dusk). The position of the sun and the angle of the rays during this period can render sun visors inadequate, thus increasing the risk of accidents by interfering with a driver’s ability to see the road ahead. This paper describes a GIS-based methodology to determine direct sunlight exposure (sun glare) for the road network in Cape Town. For an arbitrary position in the roadway alignment of the study area, the amount of sun glare risk for drivers, resulting from vision impairment, was analysed for the 2014 equinox and solstice days. Each of these astronomical events occur twice a year and have the added benefit of seasonal variation. The results of the study revealed that about 14.7% of the Cape Town road network in the autumnal equinox and spring equinox is exposed to direct sunlight while 12.2% and 15.2% is exposed in the winter solstice and summer solstice, respectively. Moreover, a case study carried out in one of the Cape Town streets provided a validation of the methodology and proved the reliability of the results. Therefore, data analysis results obtained using this methodology can be an important factor to consider when evaluating existing roads or layout and alignment alternatives for new roads. This methodology can also be incorporated into car navigation systems and variable message signs to provide automated real-time sun glare risk information to drivers.

The impact of residential photovoltaic power on electricity sales revenues in Cape Town, South Africa

In South Africa, electricity is provided as a public service by municipalities. The combination of (a) rising electricity rates, (b) decreasing photovoltaic technology costs, and (c) a progressive tariff system (under which wealthier households support low tariff rates for indigent residents) leads to incentives for high-income households to cover part of their electricity demand by self-produced photovoltaic (solar) electricity. This development is simulated with hourly load profiles and radiation data, and an optimization model for a case study in Cape Town through the year 2030. Results indicate that the majority of higher-income residents are incentivized to invest in photovoltaic power production by 2020 and additionally use home battery systems by 2028. This leads to a steadily increasing gap between revenues and expenditure needs in the budget of the municipality. The budget gap can be reduced by replacing the energy-based tariff with a revenue-neutral fixed network-connection fee implementation of which is particularly effective in reducing incentives to invest in storage.

Modeling Illicit Drug Use Dynamics and Its Optimal Control Analysis.

The global burden of death and disability attributable to illicit drug use, remains a significant threat to public health for both developed and developing nations. This paper presents a new mathematical modeling framework to investigate the effects of illicit drug use in the community. In our model the transmission process is captured as a social “contact” process between the susceptible individuals and illicit drug users. We conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction number. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in Cape Town, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and Durban communities of South Africa. In addition, the basic model is extended to incorporate time dependent intervention strategies.

A systems approach to urban water services in the context of integrated energy and water planning: A City of Cape Town case study

The City of Cape Town derives the bulk of its present water supply from surface water resources and is the central water service authority for metropolitan consumers. The City is also a provider of bulk water to neighbouring municipalities. An exploration of the energy consumption for water and sanitation services for the City of Cape Town was conducted with an emphasis on water supply augmentation options for the near future (2011-2030). A systems analysis of municipal urban water services was undertaken to examine the energy requirements of supply alternatives and the efficacy of the alternatives in respect of supply availability and reliability. This was achieved using scenario based analysis incorporating a simple additive value function, to obtain a basic performance score, to rank alternatives and facilitate a quantitative comparison. Utilising the Water Evaluation and Planning hydrological modelling tool, a model for urban water services was developed for the City and used to conduct scenario analyses for a representative portfolio of previously identified options. Within the scope of the research objectives, the scenario analyses examines the direct energy consumption for the provision of water services for the City as influenced by external factors such as population growth, surface water runoff variability, available alternatives and the policies that are adopted which ultimately determine the future planning. It is contended that the modelling process presented here integrates energy and water planning for an assessment of water and energy resources required for future growth, and the optimal measures that could be pursued to reconcile the demand for water and the concomitant energy requirements.

Formalising urban informality: micro-enterprise and the regulation of liquor in Cape Town

ABSTRACTIn early 2012, South Africa's Western Cape Province enacted new alcohol control legislation amid mounting concern with the costs of alcohol-related harms. This has focused on urban shebeen closure to control the informal, unlicensed trade and the harms it generates through crime, violence and injury. In contrast to policy discourse, this paper contends that rather than existingoutside regulation, the city's shebeeners embrace multiple (self and collective) regulatory strategies to manage the inherent risks of their own informality. Drawing on novel empirical data including a ‘business census’ and interviews with the police and liquor traders across four Cape Town case study sites, the paper adds new depth to contemporary engagements with the appropriate and equitable regulation of the South African informal liquor trade.

Spatial Variation in School Performance, a Local Analysis of Socio-economic Factors in Cape Town

Poor pass rates of matric learners at secondary schools in South Africa has been a concern for quite some time. Despite large government spending on education, research has shown that the South African schooling system is struggling to convert resources to student performances and failing to promote social equity. The poor performance by South African students prompts further investigation into the factors contributing to educational outputs. The focus of this case study in Cape Town is twofold, firstly to determine if there are any spatial patterns among the matric pass rates of secondary schools and secondly to determine if there are any relationships between the matric pass rate of the school and the socio-economic attributes of the school feeder areas. Key findings of this research suggest that Cape Town schools are clustered in terms of school performance with high performing schools grouped together and many low performing schools also clustered together. There were a few exceptions where within a cluster of low performing schools there was one high performing school and vice versa. Outcomes of the research into spatially varying relationships point to selected socio-economic factors of the community, particularly parent and household characteristics, influencing the learner’s school performance. Key words: Matric pass rate, school performance, spatial analysis, socio-economic factors, spatial relationships

Urban Energy Policies and the Governance of Multilevel Issues in Cape Town

The multiscalar challenges associated with urban energy policies are the cause of extensive interaction among multiple levels of government and social forces. However, these multilevel systems of action tend to reflect complex and unstable power and resistance patterns rather than stable co-operation processes. Thus, in this paper, a multilevel governance perspective is used as a starting point for understanding where and how multilevel interactions arise in an energy system as well as which issues are creating political conflict and the related consequences for the governance of urban energy policies. This approach is illustrated through a case study of Cape Town, which exemplifies a situation of conflicting policy and agendas at different levels of government, thus creating a great dispersion of initiatives across different scales. Integrating these initiatives within a broader coherent framework, however, is not only a technical matter. As urban energy policies deal with multilevel issues, they imply negotiating dynamic and complex compromises between different types of organisations and authorities while shaping their governance is also a matter of politics.

Can we talk about the right to healthcare without language? A critique of key international human rights law, drawing on the experiences of a Deaf woman in Cape Town, South Africa

A case study in Cape Town, South Africa, explores the right to health for signing Deaf1 patients attending health services and who are unable to communicate in a language they understand. It argues that, without language, Deaf South Africans’ dignity and right to health is violated, resulting in serious consequences such as incorrect diagnosis, improper treatment and standard of care not being applied. It critiques the provisions of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) and the limits of General Comment 14 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. The paper demonstrates that Deaf patients do not have informational access to healthcare. It argues that language via professional interpreter services is essential to their South African constitutional right of access to healthcare. General Comment 14 addresses informational accessibility, but this is insufficient without addressing language as a pre-requisite. The CRPD imposes on the South African government human rights obligations to provide professional interpreter services for Deaf people, but unfortunately it allows a loophole by enabling cost to serve as reasonable grounds to defer action.

Landscape as guiding element in the design and planning of dutch colonial settlements (1600-1800)

During the period of Dutch overseas expansion (1600-1800) two trading companies, the Dutch East India Company (VOC) and the Dutch West India Company (WIC), founded a large number of cities. These overseas settlements show many resemblances in set-up and lay out. In particular, similarities exist in the chosen locaDtion and functional organisation of the newly established settlement, which aimed to maxi mise the possibilities offered by the surrounding landscape. Unlike Spanish colonisers, for instance, who by using a fixed model with a rigid grid structure largely disregarded the existing terrain, the Dutch favoured flexibility to fully utilize the natural features of the landscape in the needs of the newly founded city. This paper discusses the determinant role of landscape in the planning of Dutch settlements overseas from 1600 to 1800. It first sets out to explain how in general natural elements, traditionally an integral part of the planning process in the Netherlands, were utilised to guide the establishment of colonial cities. ln the second part of the article the argument is further developed and illustrated through the case study of Cape Town in South Africa. The settlement's foundation and development from 1652 onwards is described and analysed utilising seventeenth and eighteenth century Dutch maps as primary sources. It underlines the importance of the surrounding landscape and the large vegetable garden of the Dutch East India Company in guiding the planning, design and development of the city for the next 150 years. Finally, the conclusion considers the implications of this particular planning process for contemporary urban conservation, planning and design. Pointers to further research involving the integration of natural and culturallandscapes in and around Cape Town are appended.

Context sensitive multimodal road planning: a case study in Cape Town, South Africa

Road planning practice relies almost exclusively on parameters related to traffic factors, such as private vehicle speeds and volumes. In many developing countries the requirements for public transport and non-motorised transport are not explicitly integrated into the planning process, despite the fact that these form the primary mode of transport for the majority of the population. This affects the mobility opportunities for these sectors of the population and contributes to poor road safety, especially with regards to pedestrians. The research outlined in the paper posits that, in order to assess the usage and needs of the road holistically, other factors related to the adjacent land uses, socio-economic characteristics of the population the road serves, and the environmental context within which the road is located, factors heavily in how the road is used and should, therefore, be considered within the planning process. The paper describes a methodology to include these factors in the planning of roads. The method attempts to prioritise amongst the five primary road based modes (public transport, car, freight, walking and cycling) based upon a combination of traffic and non-traffic factors. The method employed uses a geographic information system (GIS) based spatial multiple criteria evaluation (SMCE) model with inputs from widely available data sources such as census, household travel surveys, land use and environmental data to arrive at solutions for modal priorities. A case study is conducted along an arterial route in Cape Town, South Africa, providing infrastructure planning recommendations and audit possibilities for the future. Since weighting is an important driver in the SMCE process, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to investigate the effect of alternative weighting schemes on the outputs from the method.