Carhart Four-factor Model Research Articles

Application and Empirical Analysis of Asset Pricing Models in the Chinese Stock Market

This paper examines the application and performance of asset pricing models in the Chinese stock market. We analyze the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Fama-French Three-Factor Model, and the Carhart Four-Factor Model, assessing their effectiveness in explaining stock returns within the context of China's unique market environment. Using data from major Chinese stock exchanges, we employ regression analysis to evaluate the models. Our findings reveal that multifactor models, particularly the Carhart model, provide superior explanatory power compared to CAPM, highlighting the importance of incorporating additional risk factors. This study contributes to the understanding of asset pricing in emerging markets and offers practical insights for investors and policymakers.

A four-factor model based on factor momentum

By focusing on the momentum effect in China, we introduce a novel four-factor model grounded by factor momentum. We address this by progressively exploring three key questions. Firstly, we identify a significant momentum premium. In contrast to the US, where momentum forms over a period of 2–12 months, the formation period for momentum in China spans 7–12 months. Moreover, among various momentum factors, factor momentum stands out as the most significant, effectively explaining stock momentum, industry momentum, and regional momentum, whereas the reverse is not true. Secondly, we find that there exists a notable orthogonality between factor momentum and non-momentum factors in China, implying that factor momentum can hardly be explained by non-factor momentum, and vice versa. Thirdly, leveraging this orthogonality, we establish a four-factor model. Expanding upon the MKT and SMB factors, the model additionally includes a mispricing factor and a momentum factor. GRS tests demonstrate that this model outperforms traditional Fama-French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model, Q-4 factor model, and the three-factor model proposed by Liu et al. (2019).

Short-term Persistence Performance of Equity Mutual Fund Returns: Evidence from India

The present study verifies the short-term persistence performance of equity mutual fund returns. The study considers 47 equity funds' monthly excess returns spanning from January 2000 to December 2019. The study employs prominent asset pricing models such as Jensen (1968) one-factor model, Fama-French (1993) three-factor model, and Carhart (1997) four-factor model to capture the short-term persistence of equity mutual fund returns. The results show that Jensen’s one-factor and Fama-French three-factor models are explaining a better persistence performance in the Indian context.

Testing multifactor asset pricing models in the stock market

lthough the superiority of Fama-French (FF) five-factor model in capturing the United States (US) equity returns, this model performs poorly in other stock markets (Fama & French, 2017). Using the monthly data of nearly 600 Vietnamese published firms from 2008 to 2022, the primary purpose of this paper is to analyze and examine the performance of four famous multifactor asset pricing models: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the Carhart four factor model, and the FF three-factor and five-factor models. We document the preference for the Carhart four-factor model over other models in producing a precise description to Vietnamese stock returns. The CAPM cannot give a reasonable explanation to the variation of Vietnamese stock returns, implying that market risk only accounts for a small proportion of the risk of holding Vietnamese stocks. Furthermore, adding the profitability and investment factors does not improve the explanatory power of asset pricing models in Vietnam, inconsistent with the result reported in the US stock market (Fama & French, 2015, 2020).

Effect of Underwriter’s Reputation on Performance of small business IPOs

The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of the underwriter’s reputation on shaping the short- and long-term IPO success of small businesses. The paper uses IPO data from 2012 to 2020, three reputable proxy and event-time methodologies to analyze the company’s performance through market-adjusted excess returns, cumulative abnormal returns and buy & hold returns. Similarly, to mitigate common predispositions, use the calendar-time methodology, Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model with high and low reputational groups. The study revealed a significant positive impact of underwriters’ reputations on first-day returns and long-term performance. Overall, the results indicate that, in the longterm, IPOs of Indian small and medium-sized enterprises are over efficient with regard to reputation signals. On the contrary, the calendar-time method and multifactor model indicate the low long-term IPO effectiveness of the SME. According to the authors’ conclusion, this is the first study to assess the impact of underwriter reputation on business performance using several reputation indicators, the calendar time methodology, and the multi-factor model on the ICP’s Indian IPO platform.

Analyzing the Performance of Pakistan Equity Mutual Funds Using Multifactor Models: Pre-COVID Analysis

Previous literature has primarily focused on examining the determinants that impact mutual fund returns in developed and emerging economies. However, there is a dearth of empirical research on how multifactor models are associated with mutual fund returns in underdeveloped economies. The inconsistent literature regarding the efficiency of the literature posed a question of whether the fund managers can generate extra returns for the investors. To address this research gap, this study aims to analyze mutual fund returns using multifactor models, specifically the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama-French three-factor model, Carhart four-factor model, Treynor-Mazuy and Fama Net-Selectivity. The first three models analyze the funds with four factors: market factor, growth factor, value factor and momentum factor. The results of the study indicate that the risk premium factor plays a crucial role in understanding mutual fund returns, as it exhibits significant value across all three models. However, the value and size factors were found to be insignificant in both the Fama-French and Carhart models. Additionally, the momentum factor was not significant in the Carhart model. Notably, the significant alpha observed in all multifactor models suggests the skill of mutual fund managers, which was further confirmed using the Treynor-Mazuy and Fama Net-Selectivity models to assess their timing and selectivity abilities in actively managed funds. Furthermore, the finding of the study suggests the inefficiency of the market. The investors could earn extra return from their investments. However, the managers play important role in generating the abnormal returns as suggested by Treynor-Mazuy and Fama Net-selectivity model significance. In addition to that, investors should consider the market risk premium in their investment returns.

Evaluating the Performance of Real Estate Exchange-Traded Funds

This study examines the net monthly returns of real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through various performance evaluation models and market situations. The results reveal that these ETFs generated positive alphas and outperformed benchmark indices in absolute returns. However, their performance varied across market conditions, demonstrating both outperformance and underperformance compared to U.S. and global stocks. During the COVID-19 pandemic, real estate ETFs displayed a decline, trailing behind U.S. and global equities in both absolute returns and risk-adjusted performance. This emphasized their vulnerability during economic crises. Utilizing the Carhart four-factor model, significant exposure of real estate ETFs to the stock market was observed. Moreover, an assessment of ETF portfolio managers’ skills indicated proficiency in security selection but limited capabilities in market timing.

Corporate investment sensitivity to equity market misvaluation

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of equity market misvaluation on manager behavior. Using a sample of 535 French-listed over 2000–2018, the authors analyze whether corporate investment decision is sensitive to equity market overvaluation.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts market-to-book (M/B) decomposition developed by Rhodes-Kropf and Viswanathan (2004, RKV) that proxies for market misvaluation at the firm and industry levels. The authors conducted a long-term performance analysis via a portfolio sorting procedure and a Carhart (1997) four-factor pricing model. The authors tested the relationship between equity misvaluation, corporate investment decisions and equity issuance. The authors ran several robustness tests.FindingsThe empirical results show that equity market misvaluation affects corporate investment positively as the stock price deviates further away from its fundamental. Based on market timing theory, the authors find that corporate investment occurs in periods of high valuation motivated by equity issuance to benefit from the low cost of capital. This effect is more prominent for financially constrained firms. Consistent with the catering channel, the authors find that the misvaluation-investment nexus is more pronounced in firms with short-horizon investors. By examining the stocks’ long-term performance of misvalued firms, via a sorting portfolio procedure, the authors find that undervalued firms outperform and generate higher abnormal returns (Jensen’s alpha) than overvalued firms, suggesting that mispricing-driven investment appear to be short-lived and lead to lower return in the long term.Practical implicationsCorporate decision-makers and governance structures should pay attention to the rationality of the corporate investment decision in the context of equity market misvaluation. Managers who focus on maximizing the stock market value in the short-run at the expense of its long-term performance must give preference to value-creating investment, not driven by an external mechanism such as equity market mispricing. More generally, investors and portfolio managers must take into account the market mispricing process in decision-making. Nonetheless, from the portfolio sorting perspective, decision-makers must act in terms of high governance quality to mitigate suboptimal investment due to stock market mispricing (Jensen, 2005). Finally, equity market overvaluation, leading managers to invest via equity financing in particular, should be a signal to attract investors’ attention to seize the window of opportunity and embark on a short-term portfolio strategy. Such a strategy promises high returns in the short term.Originality/valueThis paper investigates jointly two theoretical channels: equity market timing and catering. The authors propose for the analysis three components of the M/B decomposition to dissociate market misvaluation at the firm and industry level from the fundamental component of market value (growth). This procedure provides a better understanding of the role of firm and industry misvaluation in explaining corporate investments. The authors provide evidence of the equity market misvaluation via a portfolio sorting procedure and a Carhart (1997) four-factor pricing model. The authors examine the effect of misvaluation on both the investment and the financing decisions.

Impact analysis of mergers and acquisitions on the performance of China's new energy industries

The development of new energy industries is crucial to a nation's energy transition to carbon neutrality, while photovoltaic, wind power, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles industries have been active in the capital markets. We choose mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities in such industries in China to investigate how they affect firms' short-run market performance and long-run innovation. Using data gathered from 2012 to 2020, we evaluate the degree of stock price volatility with the Carhart four-factor model combined with event study analysis. Changes in innovation after M&A activity has occurred are evaluated using the PSM-DID model. Empirical analysis shows that M&A could have a positive, short-run impact on stock prices of new energy industries, while the impact of technology M&A on sub-industries is not consistent. The cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) of the wind power and photovoltaic industries turn from negative to positive, and the correlative new energy vehicles and lithium battery industries reach the highest returns in a window period with similar trend lines. Furthermore, technology M&A positively affects the innovation performance of new energy firms, and this effect lasts three to four years. In contrast to prior industry-wide and conclusion-inconsistent M&A studies, we concentrate on new energy industries and prove the definite positive effect of technology M&A for the firms.

Selection ability and market timing skills of mutual fund and unit trust managers in a developing economy: evidence from Ghana

PurposeThe study assess the selection ability and market timing skills of mutual fund and unit trust managers in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses an improved survivorship bias-free dataset of yearly after-fee returns of all mutual funds and unit trusts operating in Ghana from January 2011 to December 2019, cumulating in nine years of quantitative fund data. The authors assess Mutual funds and Unit trusts that ever existed, “alive” or “dead,” over the sample period in the study. The authors construct factor loadings to enable the application of multifactor models in the analysis. The authors apply the unconditional versions of the Jensen alpha, Fama-French three-factor, and Carhart four-factor models to determine the selection ability and market timing skills of 32 mutual funds and 17 unit trusts. The authors deploy HAC-consistent robust standard errors to the OLS estimations to subdue the effect of heterogeneity and autocorrelation.FindingsThe results indicate that, on average, mutual funds and unit trust managers possess market timing skills but no selection ability. When the results are decomposed into fund types, fixed-income and balanced mutual fund managers possess selection ability and market timing skills.Originality/valueTo the authors' best knowledge, this study is the earliest to examine the selection ability and market timing skills of both mutual fund and unit trust managers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is also the earliest to construct factor loadings for the Ghana stock market.

Carbon neutral announcements and Chinese stock market reaction: a supply chain network-based perspective

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of carbon neutral announcements on “stock market value” of publicly listed companies in China.Design/methodology/approachThe event study approach is adopted. Market, market-adjusted, Carhart four-factor model and a cross-sectional regression model are employed to examine the impacts of carbon neutral announcements on “stock market value” of Chinese companies based on data from 188 carbon neutral announcements.FindingsCarbon neutral announcements positively impact Chinese shareholder value. Carbon neutral announcements at the strategic level have a more positive and significant impact on Chinese stock market value. Innovative carbon neutral announcements do not significantly cause Chinese stock market reactions. Companies have more positive and significant stock market reactions when the companies make carbon neutral announcements that reflect high supply chain network resilience and heterogeneity and strong supply chain network relationships.Practical implicationsThe findings uncover the business value of carbon neutral activities and provide operations managers in developing countries insights into how to improve enterprises' market value by actively implementing carbon neutral activities.Originality/valueThis paper is the first trial to apply an event study to examine the relationship between carbon neutral announcements and Chinese stock market value from the perspective of announcement level and type and supply chain networks. This paper introduces corporate reputation theory and enriches the application of corporate reputation theory in the field of low-carbon environmental protections and supply chains.

Do actively managed equity funds add value in developing economies? – The case of ‘inverse Gruber puzzle’ in Pakistan

PurposeThis paper evaluates the performance of actively managed conventional and Islamic equity funds in a developing economy with a focus to assess the performance-growth puzzle posited by Gruber (1993) (a.k.a Gruber’s puzzle). Under the context of an emerging market of Pakistan, this study explores if actively managed equity fund (AMEF) managers have been able to add value by outperforming the market in terms of stock-selection and market-timing abilities; and the comparative performance analysis of Islamic versus conventional AMEFs is also carried out.Design/methodology/approachWe employ Sharpe and Treynor ratios, Capital asset pricing model, Fama–French three factors model (1993), Carhart four-factor model (1997) and Hendrickson (1981) market timing models on 45 equity funds comprising of 23 conventional and 22 Islamic equity funds operating in Pakistan for a period of 10 years. The overall sample period (2008–2018) is divided into two 5 years sub-periods (i.e. 2009–2013 and 2014–2018) and three 3 years sub-periods (2009–2011, 2012–2014 and 2015–2017) to be viewed in conjunction with the country's macro-economic condition.FindingsWe report that the actively managed equity funds (AMEFs) were unable to beat the market index with their stock selection or market timing capabilities. However, AMEFs depicted improved performance in the post-global financial crisis period where both conventional and Islamic AMEFs generated substantial rewards for the given amount of risk. Also, conventional AMEFs outperformed Islamic AMEFs potentially due to their holdings in highly leveraged value and large-cap stocks, while Islamic AMEFS invest more cautiously in small-cap and value firms. Analysis of market timing skills revealed that the funds have not been able to select the undervalued stocks and adopted a defensive strategy in the post-global financial crisis recovery period.Practical implicationsOur findings shed some interesting insights and raise some pertinent questions for research, policy, and practice – specifically for developing countries’ context. The no ‘return-growth’ configuration defies its fit with the ‘Gruber puzzle’ and somewhat presents a case of what we call the ‘Inverse Grubber puzzle’. This novel notion of the ‘Inverse Grubber puzzle’ should inform policy and practice to reflect on their practices, institutional arrangement, regulatory framework and policy design in developing economies characterized by lacklustre performance and growth of AMEFs. For example, the regulatory design may consider focusing on stimulating financial inclusion and deepening by motivating low-cost Index tracker funds (ITFs) – with lower fund management costs, while allocating the avoided cost to flow towards effective marketing campaigns driving greater awareness, financial deepening, and investor base diversification. For future research, financial development researchers may explore the implications and appropriateness of AMEFs versus ITFs in other developing economies.Originality/valueThe work reported in this paper is original and constitutes a valuable asset for ethno-religious-sensitive investors. The research has not been published in any capacity and is not under consideration for publication elsewhere.

Islamic Fund Managers' Market Timing Abilities and their Impact on Fund Performances

This study examines Shariah-compliant fund's financial performance compared to conventional funds based on managerial timing abilities. Compared with traditional fund managers' timing skills, the study focuses on the most neglected area of Shariah-compliant manager timing abilities, liquidity, and volatility timing abilities. The study uses 69 funds whose significant exposure is the equity between January 2010 and June 2022, consisting of three investment styles: equity, asset allocation, and balanced funds. The study incorporates volatility factors based on Busse (1999) and liquidity factors from Amihud (2002) into the Carhart (1997) four-factor model. The study found that Islamic fund managers have better liquidity and volatility timing skills than conventional fund managers. The results are robust for analyzing individual funds based on different liquidity measures. There is no substantial evidence that Islamic and traditional fund managers can predict market returns.

Empirical Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

This study constructs conventional asset pricing models including the CAPM, the Fama and French three-factor model (FF3 hereafter), the Carhart four-factor model (FFC4 hereafter), and the Fama and French five-factor model (FF5 hereafter). Additionally, a six-factor model (FF5 model augments the Carhart momentum factor) is also constructed and it outperforms other conventional asset pricing models in the Chinese stock market while explaining the returns variation of cross-sectional indices and individual stocks. However, the explanatory power of models varies in explaining indices and individual stocks because of their own specificity. The models can capture most at 69.05% and least at 3.03% of the variation of the return in certain individual stocks. In light of indices, models account for the largest proportion of the variation of the return at 96.83% and the smallest proportion at 85.28%. Moreover, the predictive ability of the six-factor model is confirmed in this study, which implies the validity of constructed factors and the model.

Pricing Ability of Carhart Four-Factor and Fama–French Three-Factor Models: Empirical Evidence from Morocco

In this study, the reliability of the Fama–French Three-Factor model (FF3F) and the Carhart Four-Factor model (C4F) is examined thoroughly. In order to determine which of the asset pricing models is the best to explain portfolio returns on the Moroccan share market, these two models are indeed evaluated in the Moroccan market. Additionally, it is worth mentioning that five years of monthly data from the firms that listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange are used in this research, as well over the period of nine years. The results of this inquiry show that these models barely have a partial hold on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE), which limits their ability to predict the cross-sections of returns. In accordance with this, the C4F model has somewhat greater explanatory power than the FF3F Model. Moreover, our research adds to the body of knowledge by inserting two learned material asset pricing theories to the proof in the market, which is still evolving, and where distinctive anomalistic traits still exist (the CSE).

Asset pricing models in South Africa: A comparative of regression analysis and the Bayesian approach

<abstract> <p>This study investigated the risk-return relationship using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Carhart four-factor Model (C4FM) and Fama and French Multifactor Models (FFMMs): F3FM and F5FM. This study analyzed the JSE ALSI returns of the South African market, in relation to the risk factors constructed by the data of twenty-six emerging markets, over the sample period from October 2000 to October 2021. The methodology employed was a comparison of the conventional regression analysis and novel Bayesian approach. Regression analysis estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is one of the foremost methods used in South Africa. However, such an approach does not take into account the properties of the price data, namely, the asymmetric, volatile and random nature. While the Newey-West adjustment is one way to assist in capturing autocorrelation and volatility, it fails to consider asymmetry. The Bayesian approach accounts for all the aforementioned properties, overcoming the fundamental flaws of regression analysis. The additional model diagnostics highlighted in this study improved the Bayesian approach' robustness. The risk factors of the FFMMs estimated by regression analysis, with and without the Newey-West adjustment, were insignificant, whereas the Bayesian test results were significant. This finding clearly highlighted that model choice impacts the significance of parameter estimation and the financial decisions of investors, firms and policymakers. Jensen's alpha revealed CAPM to be optimal but none of the asset pricing models fully captured the risk premia. Thus, returns should be investigated with different risk measures for future research purposes.</p> </abstract>

The MAX puzzle in a frontier market before and during the Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT This study analyses the MAX anomaly in a frontier market before and during the Covid19 pandemic. Our sample has 39,673 firm-month observations of non-financial firms in Vietnam from 2008 to 2021. Using the Carhart four-factor model augmented with MAX anomaly, Fama-Macbeth two-step estimations, and portfolio analyses, we report the persistence of the MAX puzzle in Vietnam before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The arbitrary returns between the highest and lowest MAX portfolios are around 1% per month. Finally, our results report that the MAX anomaly is subsumed by the IVOL anomaly, while the skewness fails to explain the MAX anomaly. Our findings align with the anchoring theory, prospect theory, and prior literature. Our findings align with the anchoring theory, prospect theory, and prior literature. Our study suggests that policymakers improve market transparency to protect retail investors.

Effects of supply chain quality event announcements on stock market reaction: an empirical study from China

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of supply chain quality event (SCQE) announcements on enterprises’ stock market value.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts the event study approach and analyzes the changes in shareholder value of companies listed in China based on data from 118 SCQE announcements. In the event study, the market, market-adjusted and Carhart four-factor models are used to estimate abnormal stock market returns, and a cross-sectional regression model is performed to examine the effects of SCQE announcements on enterprises’ stock market value.FindingsSCQE announcements have a negative impact on shareholder value. From the perspective of the supply chain network structure, the market reacts more negatively to SCQE announcements issued by the enterprises with higher supply chain concentration. From the perspective of companies’ characteristics, announcements that do not reflect the establishment of supply chain quality cooperation have a more negative effect on stock market value, which indicates that the supply chain network structure and firm-level characteristic can moderate the market reaction.Practical implicationsThe findings demonstrate a quantitative evaluation of how SCQE announcements affect the stock market value of listed companies and provide guidance for managers to enhance the value of SCQE announcements.Originality/valueThis study fills the research gap on the impact of SCQE announcements on stock market value by using secondary data and first explores the relationship between SCQE announcements and stock market value from the perspective of supply chain network. Furthermore, this study contributes to the literature on SCQE using an empirical study in China.

The Relationship between ESG Scores and Firm-Specific Risk of Eurozone Banks

This paper investigates the relationship between corporate social responsibility and the idiosyncratic risk of Eurozone banks. Idiosyncratic risk represents firm-specific risks for banks, and the Carhart four-factor model is used for 31 Eurozone banks from 2002 to 2019 to determine the idiosyncratic risk. Thomson Reuters ESG scores are used to determine the ESG scores of these banks during the same period, and the effects of the environmental, social, and governance dimensions are investigated separately. The quantile regression method reveals a relationship between ESG and idiosyncratic risk over different risk levels. A significant negative relationship has been found between the overall ESG scores and the idiosyncratic risk of banks for medium- to high-risk levels. The effect becomes stronger as the riskiness of the banks increases. Similar to the overall ESG score, the governance and environmental dimensions have a negative impact on banks with medium- to high-risk levels. No significant relationship could be identified between the social dimension and the idiosyncratic risk of banks.

Blockchain announcements and stock value: a technology management perspective

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of blockchain announcements on enterprises' stock market value.Design/methodology/approachBased on resource-based theory, this study constructs a complete framework of the impact mechanism of blockchain announcements on the stock price of the announcing firm using the data of 143 blockchain announcements. An event study methodology is used in this research, and the market model, market-adjusted model and Carhart four-factor model are used to estimate stock abnormal returns after the blockchain announcement; and the cross-sectional regression model is used to test the influencing factors.FindingsBlockchain announcements elicit a significantly positive market reaction on the release day. Compared to announcements not pertaining to technical innovation, blockchain technical innovation announcements exhibit a more positive market reaction towards the announcing companies. Strategic-level announcements exhibit a more positive market reaction than operational-level announcements. Enterprise characteristics, such as enterprise-scale and enterprise innovation ability, do not affect stock market reactions to blockchain announcements.Practical implicationsThe findings reveal the economic value of conducting blockchain activities in the Chinese stock market. Findings of this study can help managers understand the value of implementing blockchain activities in a different market environment and guide them on how to improve the market value of their enterprises through the active implementation of blockchain activities.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first event study to focus solely on the value of pure blockchain announcements in an emerging market. This study considers multiple resource and capability factors that would influence blockchain technology adoption, improve the current understanding of how blockchain announcements affect corporate stock prices and provide directions for future comparative studies of market reactions to blockchain announcements in different stock markets.