Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Research Articles

Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Is Suboptimal in People With HIV.

Established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction functions may not accurately predict CVD risk in people with HIV. We assessed the performance of 3 CVD risk prediction functions in 2 HIV cohorts. CVD risk scores were calculated in the Mass General Brigham and Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV cohorts, using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD function, the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) hard coronary heart disease function and the Framingham Heart Study hard CVD function. Outcomes were myocardial infarction or coronary death for FHS hard coronary heart disease function; and myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function. We calculated regression coefficients and assessed discrimination and calibration by sex; predicted to observed risk of outcome was also compared. In the combined cohort of 9412, 158 (1.7%) had a coronary heart disease event, and 309 (3.3%) had a CVD event. Among women, CVD risk was generally underestimated by all 3 risk functions. Among men, CVD risk was underestimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function, but overestimated by the FHS hard coronary heart disease function. Calibration was poor for women using the FHS hard CVD function and for men using all functions. Discrimination in all functions was good for women (c-statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.90) and moderate for men (c-statistics ranging from 0.71 to 0.72). Established CVD risk prediction functions generally underestimate risk in people with HIV. Differences in model performance by sex underscore the need for both HIV-specific and sex-specific functions. Development of CVD risk prediction models tailored to HIV will enhance care for aging people with HIV.

Assessing Glycosylated Hemoglobin Thresholds for Development of Cardiovascular Disease by Racial and Ethnic Groups.

Diabetes is the strongest risk factor for cardiovascular disease, and although glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels are known to vary by race, no racial and ethnic-specific diagnostic thresholds exist for diabetes in prediction of cardiovascular disease events. The purpose of this study is to determine whether HbA1c thresholds for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) differ among racial and ethnic groups. This is a retrospective cohort study of Kaiser Permanente Northern California adult members (n=309 636) with no history of cardiovascular disease who had HbA1c values and race and ethnicity data available between 2014 and 2019. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the odds of MACEs by the following racial and ethnic groups: Filipino, South Asian, East Asian, Black, White, and Hispanic. A Youden index was used to calculate HbA1c thresholds for MACE prediction by each racial and ethnic group, stratified by sex. Among studied racial and ethnic groups, South Asian race was associated with the greatest odds of MACEs (1.641 [95% CI, 1.456-1.843]; P<0.0001). HbA1c was a positive predictor for MACEs, with an odds ratio of 1.024 (95% CI, 1.022-1.025) for each 0.1% increment increase in HbA1c. HbA1c values varied between 6.0% and 7.6% in MACE prediction by race and ethnicity and sex. White individuals, South Asian individuals, East Asian women, and Black men had HbA1c thresholds for MACE prediction in the prediabetic range, between 6.0% and 6.2%. Black women, Hispanic men, and East Asian men had HbA1c thresholds of 6.2% to 6.6%, less than the typical threshold of 7.0% that is used as a treatment goal. Findings suggest that the use of race and ethnic- and sex-specific HbA1c thresholds may need to be considered in treatment goals and cardiovascular disease risk estimation.

Ten-Year Cardiovascular Risk Estimation through the Framingham Risk Score among Commercial Motor Vehicle Drivers with High and Low Risk of Obstructive Sleep Apnea

Abstract Objective Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are both major medical causes of road accidents among commercial motor vehicle (CMV) drivers. The present study aimed to determine the association of the ten-year risk of developing CVD and other cardiac risk factors with the risk of developing OSA among apparently healthy CMV drivers. Materials and Methods The present cross-sectional study was conducted on 315 male CMV drivers. Demographic characteristics were collected, and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), the Snoring, Tiredness, Observed Apnea, High Blood Pressure, Body Mass Index (BMI) &gt; 35 kg/m2, Age &gt; 50 Years, Neck Circumference &gt; 40 cm, and Male Gender (STOP-Bang) questionnaire, and International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (IPAQ-SF) were filled out, and the ten-year CVD risk was calculated through the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for each individual. Laboratory tests also were performed. The participants were divided into two groups based on the STOP-Bang score and FRS, and other CVD risk factors were compared, accordingly. The Chi-squared test, the Student t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and logistic regression were used for the analysis. Results The mean age of the drivers was of 45.57 (range: 30 to 70) years. In the univariate analysis, the mean age, years of driving experience, FRS, vascular age, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome, ESS score, BMI, and circumference of the waist and hip presented a significant association with STOP-Bang score ≥ 3 (p &lt; 0.05). The metabolic equivalents of task (METs) for total physical activity and walking (min/week), time spent sitting (h/day), lipid profiles, smoking history, vehicle type, and shift type were statistically similar in both groups. In the multivariate analysis, a high risk of OSA was independently associated with higher FRS (odds ratio: 1.92; p &lt; 0.001). Conclusion The STOP-Bang score presented a direct correlation with the estimated ten-year CVD risk in CMV drivers. The high risk of developing OSA among CMV drivers is accompanied by higher CVD risk factors such as old age, diabetes, hypertension, BMI, and waist and hip circumference. The FRS was statistically higher in CMV drivers with high OSA risk.

Impact of Lipoprotein(a) Levels on Cardiovascular Risk Estimation.

A new cardiovascular risk (CVR) calculator that incorporates Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels has recently been designed. To estimate CVR using the new score and to identify the reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or systolic blood pressure (SBP) necessary to balance the risk attributable to Lp(a). CVR throughout life and at 10 years was estimated with the new score in patients in primary prevention, both considering and not considering the value of Lp(a). When the estimated risk considering Lp(a) levels exceeded the baseline risk, the reduction in LDL-C levels or SBP necessary to balance the risk attributable to Lp(a) was calculated. In total, 671 patients (mean age 54.2 years, 47.2% women) were included. Globally, 22.7% of the population had high Lp(a) values (>50 mg/dL or >125 nmol/L). When calculating CVR throughout life and considering the Lp(a) value, the global risk increased in 66.7% of cases (median 19.3%). Similar results were observed when we assessed the 10-year risk. The risk associated with Lp(a) could be completely compensated by decreasing LDL-C (average 21 mg/dL) or SBP (average 6.3 mmHg) in 79.2% and 74.7% of cases, respectively. When calculating the CVR with the new score, two-thirds and one-third of the population were bidirectionally recategorized as 'up' or 'down,' respectively. The decrease in LDL-C or SBP mitigated the increased risk caused by Lp(a) levels across a substantial proportion of patients.

Cardiovascular risk prediction - now and the future

Current cardiovascular risk estimation systems that estimate 10-year risk based on cohort studies starting at around age 40 have probably reached their limits based on current methods. The challenges are to develop new systems that will permit personalised risk estimation earlier in life with better estimates of true lifetime risk and likely treatment benefits. We outline approaches to address these issues.

Editorial comments: focus on cardiovascular risk estimation and prevention.

Editorial comments: focus on cardiovascular risk estimation and prevention.

Atherosclerosis evaluation and cardiovascular risk estimation using coronary computed tomography angiography.

Clinical risk scores based on traditional risk factors of atherosclerosis correlate imprecisely to an individual's complex pathophysiological predisposition to atherosclerosis and provide limited accuracy for predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Over the past two decades, computed tomography scanners and techniques for coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) analysis have substantially improved, enabling more precise atherosclerotic plaque quantification and characterization. The accuracy of CCTA for quantifying stenosis and atherosclerosis has been validated in numerous multicentre studies and has shown consistent incremental prognostic value for MACE over the clinical risk spectrum in different populations. Serial CCTA studies have advanced our understanding of vascular biology and atherosclerotic disease progression. The direct disease visualization of CCTA has the potential to be used synergistically with indirect markers of risk to significantly improve prevention of MACE, pending large-scale randomized evaluation.

Association of Periodontitis with Ambulatory Blood Pressure, Salt Intake, and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio in High-Risk Hypertensive Patients

&amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Objective&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: Periodontitis and cardiovascular disease are prevalent entities that often coexist, with a common pro-inflammatory pathway. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between periodontitis and cardiovascular pro-inflammatory parameters rarely considered within risk factors. &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Methods&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: Forty-three participants aged between 38-82 years were examined. An association between mean probing depth (MPD), mean attachment loss (MAL), bleeding on probing (BOP), and periodontal inflamed surface area (PISA) was correlated with the following cardiovascular disease factors and inflammatory promoters: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), 24h ambulatory blood pressure, global cardiovascular risk, daily salt intake, night-time systolic blood pressure (nSBP), and pulse wave velocity (PWV). A two-way ANOVA and multiple comparison tests were performed using SPSS statistics software. &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Results&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: A highly significant correlation (p&amp;lt;0.05) was found between BOP, MPD, and MAL with high salt intake, global cardiovascular risk estimation, nSBP, and PISA. Also, significantly statistical correlation (p&amp;lt;0.05) was found between BOP, NLR, and PWV while PISA was only associated with NLR. Logistic regression analysis identified absolute values of nSBP, salt intake and NLR as possible independent contributors to the increase in the &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;log&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt; odds of developing BOP. &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Conclusions&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;: Several periodontal disease parameters are linked to cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, daily salt intake and night-time systolic blood pressure.

Universal screening for early detection of chronic autoimmune, metabolic and cardiovascular diseases in the general population using capillary blood (UNISCREEN): low-risk interventional, single-centre, pilot study protocol

IntroductionChronic autoimmune (type 1 diabetes and coeliac disease) and metabolic/cardiovascular (type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypertension) diseases are highly prevalent across all age ranges representing a major public health burden. Universal...

European Lipid Guidelines and Cardiovascular Risk Estimation: Current Status and Future Challenges.

Genetic, experimental, epidemiologic, and clinical data support the causal role of elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommendations of the 2019 European guidelines are based on the concept of differential CV risk, which in turn defines the LDL-C goals that should be achieved. The 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines for dyslipidaemia use the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model to assess CV risk, which provides a 10-year risk of fatal CV event. The SCORE model has recently been updated to reflect current rates of cardiovascular disease in Europe. The new SCORE2 model provides estimates of the 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events in people aged 40-69 years, thus improving the identification of individuals at higher risk of a CVD event. However, as in the SCORE age is the main determinant of risk, young people have a relatively low estimated 10-year risk of a CV event even with high levels of one or more causal risk factors. Individuals with familial hypercholesterolaemia, who have elevated LDL-C levels from birth and have a high risk of premature CVD, are one example. The concept of cumulative LDL exposure is thus becoming increasingly important. This is also supported by Mendelian randomisation studies showing that carrying genetic variants associated with lower LDL-C levels reduces CV risk. These observations have introduced the concept of "cholesterol-years", which takes into account both LDL-C levels and time of exposure. It is crucial that future European guidelines pay more attention to this point.

IoT system development for heart rhythm monitoring and cardiovascular risk estimation

The research focuses on addressing the global issue of cardiovascular diseases. The key variable under consideration for predicting cardiovascular diseases is heart rate variability (HRV). Leveraging the widespread adoption of IoT in various applications, particularly in the health sector, the study proposes the design and implementation of an IoT system for HRV monitoring. The research unfolded in four methodological phases: exploration and selection of technologies, definition of the IoT architecture, development of the prototype, and verification of its functionality. The implemented IoT system adheres to the conventional 4-layer IoT architecture: capture, storage, analysis, and visualization. Heart rate data is periodically acquired using a heart rate sensor and an Arduino-compatible board. The storage layer employs a non-relational database to store the captured data. The analysis layer extracts metrics related to HRV (High: RR &lt;750 ms, Moderate: RR 750–900 ms, Low: RR &gt;900 ms) by applying and delivering quantitative results from clustering algorithms such as machine learning models to evaluate data distribution. Risk levels indicate specific patient metrics. Thus, a 75-year-old patient exhibits an average HR of 75.56, Avg. RR of 795.42, falling into Cluster 1 with a risk value of 1.0. Similar detailed metrics and risk stratifications are presented for patients aged 68, 46, 37, and 18, demonstrating the system's robustness and efficacy in assessing cardiovascular risk. The visualization layer enables real-time observation of physiological variables, risk metrics, and results from data analytics models. The distinctive features of the results lie in the portability advantages of the IoT system, utilizing free hardware and software tools. This facilitates easy replication and utilization of the proposed system in medical campaigns, specifically for the early detection of cardiac conditions. The portable IoT system, leveraging free tools, enhances predictive capabilities for early cardiovascular risk detection globally

Novel Therapies for Lipoprotein(a): Update in Cardiovascular Risk Estimation and Treatment.

Lipoprotein(a) is an important causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease but currently no available medication effectively reduces lipoprotein(a). This review discusses recent findings regarding lipoprotein(a) as a causal risk factor and therapeutic target in cardiovascular disease, it reviews current clinical recommendations, and summarizes new lipoprotein(a) lowering drugs. Epidemiological and genetic studies have established lipoprotein(a) as a causal risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality. Guidelines worldwide now recommend lipoprotein(a) to be measured once in a lifetime, to offer patients with high lipoprotein(a) lifestyle advise and initiate other cardiovascular medications. Clinical trials including antisense oligonucleotides, small interfering RNAs, and an oral lipoprotein(a) inhibitor have shown great effect on lowering lipoprotein(a) with reductions up to 106%, without any major adverse effects. Recent clinical phase 1 and 2 trials show encouraging results and ongoing phase 3 trials will hopefully result in the introduction of specific lipoprotein(a) lowering drugs to lower the risk of cardiovascular disease.

Food intake, plasma copeptin and cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: A cross-sectional analysis

Background and aimIncreased consumption of ultra-processed foods has been linked to both mortality and cardiovascular risk. Copeptin levels may serve as potential risk markers for cardiovascular death and events. This cross-sectional analysis seeks to assess the potential correlation between the intake of ultra-processed foods and copeptin levels in outpatients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, based on estimates of cardiovascular risk. Methods and resultsOutpatients underwent clinical and nutritional assessments. Dietary information was gathered using a validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire, and the consumption of all foods, beverages, and food products was assessed according to the NOVA food classification system. Fasting plasma-EDTA samples were collected and preserved at −80 °C. Plasma copeptin measurements were analyzed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on the competition principle. Participants were categorized into two groups: high risk and very high risk, based on cardiovascular risk calculated by the HEARTS calculator. A total of 190 participants were included in the evaluation, with an average age of 60 ± 9 years, glycated hemoglobin of 8.4 ± 1.4%, and a diabetes duration of 11 (5–19) years. Patients at a very high cardiovascular risk exhibited higher plasma copeptin levels compared to those at high cardiovascular risk. Notably, 92.1% of patients reported consuming more than 10% of total energy intake from ultra-processed foods, although this proportion did not differ between the two groups. ConclusionThis patient sample reported elevated consumption of ultra-processed foods; nevertheless, the correlation between ultra-processed foods and plasma copeptin has not been substantiated.

A comparative study of cardiovascular risk stratification methods in type 1 diabetes mellitus patients

The Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen developed the Steno T1 Risk Engine (ST1RE) to predict cardiovascular events, encompassing fatal and nonfatal ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, and peripheral arterial disease in type 1 diabetes mellitus(T1DM).The current study investigated the agreement between ST1RE and the Brazilian Society for Endocrinology and Metabology (SBEM) classification. Participants were included in the study if diagnosed with T1DM and had at least one outpatient visit in 2021. Patients with established cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease on dialysis were excluded. Clinical parameters were obtained from medical records, such as age, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, physical activity, current smoking, microvascular target organ damage, levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and albuminuria.Overall, 92 patients (38 males and 53 females) with an age median (P25; P75) of 33 years (25.5;42.5), BMI of 24.8 + 4.1 kg/m2, and duration of diabetes (mean ± SD) of 23.4 + 9.5 years were evaluated. There were no differences considering the gender for most analyzed variables, but a higher proportion of women exhibited microvascular complications such as microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria, and retinopathy. Our results show a weak agreement in the 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation between SBEM and ST1RE classifications. According to SBEM criteria, 72.8% of patients were considered high-risk, while only 15.2% of patients received the same classification using ST1RE. The dissimilarities between these two classifications were also evident when age and gender factors were compared. While 60% of patients under 35 years were classified as high risk according to SBEM criteria, only 1.8% received this stratification risk in the ST1RE classification.The results indicate a low agreement between the 10-year cardiovascular event risk classification by SBEM and the classification by ST1RE for type 1 diabetes patients without established cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Using Updated WHO/International Society of Hypertension Risk Prediction Charts and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score in Residents of Amreli District

Introduction: India is one of the countries the World Health Organization (WHO) has recognized as having the majority of lifestyle-related illnesses in the near future. The highest incidence of CVD are found on the Indian subcontinent. Objectives:To assess the cardiovascular risk among adults aged &gt;40 years using the updated WHO/ISH risk prediction charts and ASCVD risk score and to compare baseline cardiovascular risk estimation by both risk scores. Method: This cross-sectional study was done among 228 individuals aged 40–74 years of urban and rural areas. A semi-structured interviewer administered questionnaire was developed. The data was collected in Epicollect 5 mobile application and analyzed using Jamovi software. Results:The mean age of the study participants was 56.54 ±0.73 years. CVD high risk was signiicantly higher in males as compared to females (P&lt;0.05). The ASCVD risk score classiied (38.2%), of the participants as high-risk, whereas the lab-based and non lab-based versions of WHO/ISH risk prediction classiied less than 10% as high risk. There was moderate agreement between the lab-based and non lab-based versions of the WHO/ISH risk prediction (Kappa-0.724, p-0 .000), fair between ASCVD risk score and non lab-based versions of the WHO/ISH (Kappa-0.310, p-0.000). The agreement between, ASCVD risk score and lab-based version of WHO/ISH risk predictor was fair (Kappa-0.309, p-0 .000). Conclusion: In current study, it was observed that one-third of the participants had a high risk of CVD events based on the ASCVD risk score, and a smaller number of participants were found to be at high risk according to the WHO/ISH risk chart. So we need to implement this risk scores predictors of CVD events for identify the high risk individual and their further management. Keywords: Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score, Cardiovascular Disease, WHO/International Society of Hypertension

Assessing the short-term effects of PM2.5 and O3 on cardiovascular mortality using high-resolution exposure: a time-stratified case cross-over study in Southwestern China.

Air pollution is a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). To date, limited studies have estimated the effects of ambient air pollution on CVD mortality using high-resolution exposure assessment, which might fail to capture the spatial variation in exposure and introduce bias in results. Besides, the three-year action plan (TYAP, 2018-2020) was released; thus, the constitution and health effect of air pollutants may have changed. In this study, we estimated the short-term effect exposed to particulate matters with parameter less than 2.5µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) with 0.05° × 0.05° resolution on CVD mortality and measured the influence of TYAP in the associations. We used random forest models with spatial weight matrices to attain high-resolution pollutant concentrations and conditional Poisson regression to assess the relationship between air pollution and cardiovascular mortality. With an increase of 10µg/m3 in PM2.5 and O3 during 2018-2021 in the Sichuan Basin (SCB), CVD mortality increased 1.0134 (95% CI 1.0102, 1.0166) and 1.0083 (95% CI 1.0060, 1.0107), respectively, using high-resolution air pollutant concentration, comparing to 1.0070 (95% CI 1.0052, 1.0087) and 1.0057 (95% CI 1.0037, 1.0078) using data from air quality monitoring stations (AQMs). After TYAP, the relative risk (RR) due to PM2.5 rose up to 1.0149 (95% CI 1.0054, 1.0243), and the RR due to O3 rose up to 1.0089 (95% CI 1.0030, 1.0148) in Sichuan Province. We found significantly positive association of cardiovascular mortality and air pollution in Sichuan Province. And using high-resolution exposure would be more accurate to estimate the effect of air pollution on CVD. After TYAP, the cardiovascular mortality risk estimation due to PM2.5 decreased in elderly in SCB, and the risk due to O3 increased in Sichuan Province.

Multiple Cardiac Biomarkers to Improve Prediction of Cardiovascular Events: Findings from the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study.

Many studies have investigated whether single cardiac biomarkers improve cardiovascular risk prediction for primary prevention but whether a combined approach could further improve risk prediction is unclear. We aimed to test a sex-specific, combined cardiac biomarker approach for cardiovascular risk prediction. In the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), cardiac troponin I (cTnI), cardiac troponin T (cTnT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured in stored serum using automated immunoassays. Sex-specific Cox models that included SCORE2 risk factors evaluated addition of single and combined biomarkers for prediction of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Combined biomarker models were compared to a baseline model that included SCORE2 risk factors. The study population comprised 18 383 individuals (58.9% women, median age of 48 years [25th-75th percentile, 35-58 years]). During the median follow up of 11.6 (25th-75th percentile, 10.8-13.0) years, MACE occurred in 942 (5.1%) individuals. The greatest increase in discrimination with addition of individual biomarkers to the base model was for women GDF-15 and for men NT-proBNP (change in c-index: + 0.010 for women and +0.005 for men). For women, combined biomarker models that included GDF-15 and NT-proBNP (+0.012) or GDF-15 and cTnI (+0.013), but not CRP or cTnT, further improved discrimination. For men, combined biomarker models that included NT-proBNP and GDF-15 (+0.007), NT-proBNP and cTnI (+0.006), or NT-proBNP and CRP (+0.008), but not cTnT, further improved discrimination. A combined biomarker approach, particularly the use of GDF-15, NT-proBNP and cTnI, further refined cardiovascular risk estimates.

Electrocardiography score based on the Minnesota code classification system predicts cardiovascular mortality in an asymptomatic low-risk population

Background The use of a single abnormal finding on electrocardiography (ECG) is not recommended for stratifying the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in low-risk general populations because of its low discriminative power. However, the value of a scoring system containing multiple abnormal ECG findings for predicting CV death has not been sufficiently evaluated. Methods In a prospective community-based cohort study, 8417 participants without atherosclerotic CV diseases (ASCVDs) and any related symptoms were followed for 18 years. The standard 12-lead ECGs were recorded at baseline and the ECG findings were categorized using the Minnesota code classification. CV deaths were defined as death from myocardial infarction (MI), chronic ischemic heart disease, heart failure, fatal arrhythmia, cerebrovascular event, pulmonary thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease and sudden cardiac arrest and identified using the Korean National Statistical Office (KOSTAT) database. Results In a multivariate Cox proportional hazard (CPH) model, major and minor ST-T wave abnormalities, atrial fibrillation (AF), Q waves in the anterior leads, the lack of Q waves in the posterior leads, high amplitudes of the left and right precordial leads, left axis deviation and sinus tachycardia were associated with higher risks of CV deaths. The ECG score consisted of these findings showed modest predictive values represented by C-statistics that ranged from 0.632 to 760 during the follow-up and performed better in the early follow-up period. The ECG score independently predicted CV death after adjustment for relevant covariates in a multivariate model, and improved the predictive performance of the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator and a model of conventional risk factors including age, diabetes and current smoking. The combined ECG score (Harrell’s C-index: 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.828–0.876) composed of the ECG score and the conventional risk factors outperformed the 10-year ASCVD risk estimator (Harrell’s C-index: 0.806; 95% CI, 0.780–0.833) and the model of the conventional risk factors (Harrell’s C-index: 0.841, 95% CI, 0.817–0.865) and exhibited an excellent goodness of fit between the predicted and observed probabilities of CV death. Conclusions The ECG score could be useful to predict CV death independently and may add value to the conventional CV risk estimators regarding the risk stratification of CV death in asymptomatic low-risk general populations.

Ten year follow-up study regarding treatment compliance and cardiovascular events in young first diagnosed and never treated hypertensives of a European Society of Hypertension Excellence Center

Abstract Background Early onset arterial hypertension (AH) is associated with a considerably increased risk for cardiovascular (CV) disease if left untreated. Treatment is based on the estimation of CV risk in each hypertensive patient. The compliance of each individual hypertensive in proposed life style changes and medical treatment is paramount. We aimed to investigate the compliance in medical treatment and we set as primary endpoint of the study the incidence of any CV events [CV death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke] and all-cause death of a cohort of young first diagnosed and never treated hypertensives of a European Society of Hypertension (ESH) Excellence Center. Population and Methods: We studied 220 young, non-diabetic (&amp;lt;50 years old) first diagnosed and never treated hypertensive patients (42+7 years, 70% males, 41% smokers, BMI=29+5, 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) =142+10/91+9 mmHg, LDL=133+36 mg/dl, 49% had &amp;gt;1 HMOD) visiting our ESH Excellence Center (2004-2021). All patients were apparently healthy with no co-morbidities. In each patient, the presence of hypertension mediated organ damage (HMOD) was evaluated at baseline (aortic stiffness, left ventricular hypertrophy, coronary flow reserve, diastolic dysfunction. The cohort was re-evaluated at 10+4 years post-medical treatment initiation regarding compliance as well as the primary endpoint of the study. Results 191/220 (87%) young hypertensives (at baseline, 42+7 years, 70% males, 40% smokers, BMI=29.5, 24-h ABPM=142+10/91+9 mmHg, LDL=133+36 mg/dl, 49% had&amp;gt;1 HMOD) participated in the follow-up study while 29 (13%) patients were lost. We found that 17/191 (9%) quit medical treatment. Home or office BP was confirmed as controlled (&amp;lt;140/90 mmHg) in 151/191 (79%) patients. Regarding CV events, 7/191 (4%) hypertensive patients (at baseline, 44+4 years, 86% males, 71% smokers, BMI= 30+4, 24-h ABPM=142+12/89+10 mmHg, LDL=175+33 mg/dl, 87% had&amp;gt;1 HMOD) had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at 6+4 years post-treatment initiation while 1/191 (0.5%) patient died due to lung cancer. Hypertensive patients with CV events differed regarding increased LDL levels at baseline (168+35 vs.131+36, p=0.007), more smokers (p=0.04) and HMOD &amp;gt;1 (p=0.02) compared to the rest of the young hypertensive population. Conclusions Compliance regarding medical treatment was sustained in 9/10 young hypertensive patients during the 10-year follow-up. Just 4% of the population, smokers with increased LDL and HMOD&amp;gt;1, suffered an AMI despite compliance in medical antihypertensive treatment. Subsequently, treating AH in young people needs both life style changes (quit smoking) and medical treatment (hypertension plus hyperlipidemia) in order to prevent future CV events.CV events in young hypertensives

Pulse wave velocity has an additive prognostic value to SCORE2 in apparently healthy subjects at 6 years of follow up

Abstract Backround/Aim: Arterial stiffness is involved in the clinical course of atherogenesis. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether altered arterial wall properties of confers predictively and additively to estimation of cardiovascular risk. Methods Pulse wave velocity carotid-femoral (PWVc-f), the gold standard method to assess arterial stiffness, was measured non-invasively by Complior device. Increased PWV(c-f), especially above 10 m/s, indicates increased arterial stiffness. We measured baseline PWV(c-f) in 747 apparently healthy subjects (51.99±13.41 years old, 43.8% males), without established cardiovascular disease and calculated SCORE2 in each subject according to ESC guidelines.We prospectively monitored the occurrence of major cardiovascular events (MACEs-death, myocardial infarction, stroke) during a 6-year follow-up period using electronic records and clinic visits. Results Fifty-seven MACEs were documented during follow-up. In univariate analysis, subjects with increased PWV were found to exert greater risk for MACEs (hazard ratio (HR):1.12, 95%CI: 1.09-1.15, p&amp;lt;0.001). PWV remained a significant predictor for MACEs in a model including sex, age, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary artery disease and treatment with ACEi/ARBs or lipid lowering agents after using backward elimination (HR:1.13; 95% CI: 1.08-1.18, p&amp;lt;0.001). PWV was an independent and additive predictor of outcome when added in a model including solely SCORE2 (HR:1.10; 95% CI: 1.07-1.14,p&amp;lt;0.001; Chi-square change:20.08, p&amp;lt;0.001; C-statistic increase from 0.592 to 0.685) and also in a model encompassing risk factors not included in SCORE2, namely diabetes (HR:1.07; 95% CI: 1.04-1.11,p&amp;lt;0.001; Chi-square change: 43.12, p&amp;lt;0.001; C-statistic increase from 0.613 to 0.698). The HR of PWV for the prediction of MACE remained similar in subjects younger or older than the age of 50 years (p&amp;gt;0.05). Conclusion Arterial stiffness is an independent and additive predictor to conventional risk factors and SCORE2 for adverse outcome at 6 years follow-up.