Risk Of Carcinoma In Patients Research Articles

Role of Early On-Treatment Serum HBV RNA Declines in Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Background and AimsHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models established in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving nucleoside analogue (NA) rarely included viral factors because of mediocre predictability of traditional viral markers. Here, we investigate the role of serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) RNA, a novel biomarker, in predicting HCC risk in NA-treated patients. MethodsA total of 1374 NA-treated patients were enrolled from two prospective CHB cohorts. Serum HBV RNA was detected at baseline, year 1, 2 and 3 of treatment. Cox proportional-hazard model was used to investigate the association of HBV RNA kinetics with HCC risk. ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 76 patients developed HCC. HBV RNA declines at year 1 (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.70, P = .009) and 2 (aHR = 0.71, P = .016) were independently associated with HCC risk. Patients with less HBV RNA decline at year 1 (=< 0.4 log10 copies/mL) or 2 (=<0.6 log10 copies/mL) had 2.22- and 2.09-folds higher HCC risk, respectively, than those with more declines. When incorporating these early on-treatment HBV RNA declines into existing HCC risk scores, including PAGE B, mPAGE B and aMAP score, they could enhance their predictive performance [i.e. C-index, 0.814 vs. 0.788 (Model (PAGE B + year-1 HBV RNA decline)vs. PAGE B score based on baseline parameters)]. ConclusionsSerum HBV RNA declines at year 1 and 2 were significantly associated with on-treatment HCC risk. Incorporating early on-treatment HBV RNA declines into HCC risk prediction models can be useful tools to guide appropriate surveillance strategies in NA-treated patients.

Estimating the key outcomes and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients in immune-tolerant phase of chronic hepatitis B virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The question of whether patients in the immune-tolerant (IT) phase of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection should undergo antiviral therapy and determine the optimal regimen remains unclear. A comprehensive search of PubMed, Embase, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and Wanfang Data from inception to 5 December 2023, was conducted. Studies reporting on key outcomes such as HBV DNA undetectability, HBeAg loss or seroconversion, HBsAg loss or seroconversion, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in patients in the IT phase of chronic HBV infection were included. In total, 23 studies were incorporated. Approximately 4% of patients in the IT phase achieved spontaneous HBeAg loss over 48weeks of follow-up. Antiviral therapy demonstrated a favourable impact on HBV DNA negative conversion (Children: risk ratios [RR]=6.83, 95% CI: 2.90-16.05; Adults: RR=25.84, 95% CI: 6.47-103.31) and HBsAg loss rates (Children: RR=9.49, 95% CI: 1.74-51.76; Adults: RR=7.35, 95% CI: 1.41-38.27) for patients in the IT phase. Subgroup analysis revealed that in adult patients in the IT phase, interferon plus nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA)-treated patients exhibited a higher pooled rate of HBsAg loss or seroconversion than those treated with NA monotherapy (9% vs. 0%). Additionally, the pooled annual HCC incidence for patients in the IT phase was 3.03 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 0.99-5.88). Adult patients in the IT phase had a significantly lower HCC incidence risk than HBeAg-positive indeterminate phase patients (RR=0.46, 95% CI: 0.32-0.66), with no significant differences observed between IT and immune-active phases. Presently, there is insufficient evidence solely based on reducing the risk of HCC incidence, to recommend treating patients in the IT phase of chronic HBV infection. However, both adult and paediatric patients in the IT phase responded well to antiviral therapy, showing favourable rates of HBsAg loss or seroconversion.

LBP-037 Role of early on-treatment serum hepatitis B virus RNA declines in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

LBP-037 Role of early on-treatment serum hepatitis B virus RNA declines in the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B

The hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis: a competing risk nomogram based on a 4-year retrospective cohort study.

The study aimed to build and validate a competitive risk nomogram to predict the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis. A total of 1401 HBV-related cirrhosis patients were retrospectively enrolled from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014. Application of 20 times imputation dealt with missing data using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE). The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1017) and a validation set (n = 384) at a ratio of 3:1. A prediction study was carried out using a competing risk model, where the event of interest was HCC and the competing events were death and liver transplantation, and subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) with 95% CIs were reported. The multivariate competing risk model was constructed and validated. There was a negligible difference between the original database and the 20 imputed datasets. At the end of follow-up, the median follow-up time was 69.9 months (interquartile range: 43.8-86.6). There were 31.5% (442/1401) of the patients who developed HCC, with a 5-year cumulative incidence of 22.9 (95%CI, 20.8%-25.2%). The univariate and multivariate competing risk regression and construction of the nomogram were performed in 20 imputed training datasets. Age, sex, antiviral therapy history, hepatitis B e antigen, alcohol drinking history, and alpha-fetoprotein levels were included in the nomogram. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve values at 12, 24, 36, 60, and 96 months were 0.68, 0.69, 0.70, 0.68, and 0.80, and the Brier scores were 0.30, 0.25, 0.23, 0.21, and 0.20 in the validation set. According to the cumulative incidence function, the nomogram effectively screened out high-risk HCC patients from low-risk patients in the presence of competing events (Fine-Gray test p < 0.001). The competitive risk nomogram was allowed to be used for predicting HCC risk in individual patients with liver cirrhosis, taking into account both the association between risk factors and HCC and the modifying effect of competition events on this association.

Dynamic evaluation of liver fibrosis to assess hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving nucleoside analogs treatment.

Despite good hepatitis B virus (HBV) inhibition by nucleoside analogs (NAs), cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still occur. This study proposed a non-invasive predictive model to assess HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving NAs treatment. Data were obtained from a hospital-based retrospective cohort registered on the Platform of Medical Data Science Academy of Chongqing Medical University, from 2013 to 2019. A total of 501 patients under NAs treatment had their FIB-4 index updated semiannually by recalculation based on laboratory values. Patients were divided into three groups based on FIB-4 index values: < 1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥ 3.25. Subsequently, HCC incidence was reassessed every six months using Kaplan-Meier curves based on the updated FIB-4 index. The median follow-up time of CHB patients after receiving NAs treatment was 2.5 years. HCC incidences with FIB-4 index < 1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥ 3.25 were 1.18%, 1.32%, and 9.09%, respectively. Dynamic assessment showed that the percentage of patients with FIB-4 index < 1.45 significantly increased semiannually (P < 0.001), and of patients with FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25 significantly decreased (P < 0.001). HCC incidence was the highest among patients with FIB-4 index ≥ 3.25. The FIB-4 index effectively predicted HCC incidence, and its dynamic assessment could be used for regular surveillance to implement early intervention and reduce HCC risk.

Presence of diabetes further heightens hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

ObjectiveImpact of diabetes mellitus on the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remained controversial in cirrhotic patients. This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association of diabetes and the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. MethodsTwo authors comprehensively searched PubMed and Embase databases until June 22, 2023, to identify studies that evaluated the association of diabetes with the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. ResultsSixteen retrospective/prospective cohort studies reporting on 15 articles (5357 cirrhotic patients) were included. The prevalence of diabetes in hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis patients ranged from 4 to 46%. Diabetes was associated with higher risk of HCC (risk ratio [RR] 1.74; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.24–2.45) in patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. However, no significant relationship of diabetes with the occurrence of HCC was present in studies with less than 48-month follow-up among patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis (RR 1.28; 95% CI 0.68–2.43). Moreover, diabetes also conferred an increased risk of HCC (RR 2.67; 95% CI 2.03–3.51) in patients with hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis. ConclusionPresence of diabetes significantly predicted the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis.

A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses. The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001). Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.

Alcohol use and hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis

Objectives Insights into risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALD cirrhosis) are important for decisions about HCC surveillance. We studied the effects of continued hazardous alcohol use in ALD cirrhosis on HCC risk. Methods Within a nationwide registry-based cohort of patients with ALD cirrhosis, we compared HCC risk between patients with a continued hazardous alcohol use and matched comparators. We used Fine-Gray regression to compare the risk of HCC and Cox regression to compare all-cause mortality. We also included patients with ALD cirrhosis in a clinical case-control study. Cases had HCC, and controls did not. Alcohol use was quantified using the AUDIT-C-questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between hazardous alcohol use and HCC risk. Results In the registry-based study, we included 8,616 patients with continued hazardous alcohol use and 8,616 matched comparators. Patients with a continued hazardous alcohol use had a lower HCC risk (subdistribution hazard ratio: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57 − 0.72) and higher mortality (hazard ratio: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.56 − 1.67). In the clinical study, we included 146 patients with ALD cirrhosis of whom 53 had newly diagnosed HCC. Hazardous alcohol use was insignificantly associated with a lower HCC risk (odds ratio: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.25 − 1.46). Conclusions Hazardous alcohol use in patients with ALD cirrhosis is associated with higher mortality and, consequently, a lower HCC risk. Even if alcohol is carcinogenic, HCC surveillance will therefore likely be more effective in patients with ALD cirrhosis without a hazardous alcohol use.

FRI-288 - A prospective multicenter study to examine the impact of acquired and genetic predictors on Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with advanced NAFLD: first report

FRI-288 - A prospective multicenter study to examine the impact of acquired and genetic predictors on Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with advanced NAFLD: first report

THU-165 - MAFLD (metabolic associated fatty liver disease) outperforms ultrasonographic steatosis to stratify hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with advanced hepatitis C cured with direct antiviral agents

THU-165 - MAFLD (metabolic associated fatty liver disease) outperforms ultrasonographic steatosis to stratify hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with advanced hepatitis C cured with direct antiviral agents

Metabolic dysfunction outperforms ultrasonographic steatosis to stratify hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with advanced hepatitis C cured with direct-acting antivirals.

Metabolic dysfunction (MD)-associated fatty liver disease has been proposed to identify individuals at risk of liver events irrespectively of the contemporary presence of other liver diseases. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of MD in patients cured of chronic hepatis C (CHC). We analysed data from a real-life cohort of 2611 Italian patients cured of CHC with direct antiviral agents and advanced liver fibrosis, without HBV/HIV, transplantation and negative for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) history (age 61.4 ± 11.8 years, 63.9% males, median follow-up 34, 24-40 months). Information about ultrasonographic steatosis (US) after sustained virological response was available in 1978. MD affected 58% of patients, diagnosed due to the presence of diabetes (MD-diabetes, 19%), overweight without diabetes (MD-overweight, 37%) or multiple metabolic abnormalities without overweight and diabetes (MD-metabolic, 2%). MD was more frequent than and not coincident with US (32% MD-only, 23% MD-US and 13% US-only). MD was associated with higher liver stiffness (p < 0.05), particularly in patients with MD-diabetes and MD-only subgroups, comprising older individuals with more advanced metabolic and liver disease (p < 0.05). At Cox proportional hazard multivariable analysis, MD was associated with increased risk of HCC (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.27-3.04; p = 0.0023). Further classification according to diagnostic criteria improved risk stratification (p < 0.0001), with the highest risk observed in patients with MD-diabetes. Patients with MD-only appeared at highest risk since the sustained virological response achievement (p = 0.008), with a later catch-up of those with combined MD-US, whereas US-only was not associated with HCC. MD is more prevalent than US in patients cured of CHC with advanced fibrosis and identifies more accurately individuals at risk of developing HCC.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving tenofovir- vs. entecavir-based regimens: Individual patient data meta-analysis

The comparative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) receiving tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) vs. entecavir (ETV) remains controversial. In this individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis, we aimed to compare HCC risk between the two drugs and identify subgroups who may benefit more from one treatment than the other. Published meta-analyses, electronic databases and congress proceedings were searched to identify eligible studies through January 2021. We compared HCC risk between the two drugs using a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with anonymised IPD from treatment-naïve patients with CHB receiving TDF or ETV for ≥1 year. Treatment effect consistency was explored in propensity score matching (PSM), weighting (PSW) and subgroup analyses for age, sex, hepatitis B e-antigen (HBeAg) positivity, cirrhosis and diabetes status. We included 11 studies from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong involving 42,939 patients receiving TDF (n= 6,979) or ETV (n= 35,960) monotherapy. Patients receiving TDF had significantly lower HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% CI 0.61-0.98; p= 0.03). Lower HCC risk with TDF was consistently observed in PSM (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.59-0.88; p <0.01) and PSW (HR 0.83; 95% CI 0.67-1.03; p= 0.10) analyses and in all subgroups, with statistical significance in the ≥50 years of age (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-1.00; p <0.05), male (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.58-0.96; p= 0.02), HBeAg-positive (HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49-0.97; p= 0.03) and non-diabetic (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.63-1.00; p <0.05) subgroups. TDF was associated with significantly lower HCC risk than ETV in patients with CHB, particularly those with HBeAg positivity. Longer follow-up may be needed to better define incidence differences between the treatments in various subgroups. Previous aggregate data meta-analyses have reported inconsistent conclusions on the relative effectiveness of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and entecavir in reducing hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This individual patient data meta-analysis on 11 studies involving 42,939 patients from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong suggested that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate-treated patients have a significantly lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk than entecavir-treated patients, which was observed in all subgroups of clinical interest and by different analytical methodologies. These findings should be taken into account by healthcare providers when determining the optimal course of treatment for patients with CHB and may be considered in ensuring that treatment guidelines for CHB remain pertinent.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with type-2 diabetes using supervised machine learning classification model

BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among type-2 diabetes (T2D) patients is an increasing burden to diabetes management. This study aims to develop and select the best machine learning (ML) classification model for predicting HCC in T2D for HCC early detection. MethodsA case-control study was conducted utilising computerised medical records in two hepatobiliary centres. The predictors were chosen using multiple logistic regression. IBM SPSS Modeler® was used to assess the discriminative performance of support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), and their ensembles. ResultsSubjects (N = 424) were split into 60% training (n = 248) and 40% testing (n = 176) groups. The independent predictors identified were race, viral hepatitis, abdominal pain/discomfort, unintentional weight loss, statins, alcohol consumption, non-alcoholic fatty liver, platelet <150 ×103/μL, alkaline phosphatase >129 IU/L, and alanine transaminase ≥25 IU/L. The performances of all models differed significantly (Cochran’s Q-test,p = 0.001) but not between the ensembled and SVM model (McNemar test, p = 0.687). SVM model was selected as the best model due to its simplicity, high accuracy (85.28%), and high AUC (0.914). A web-based application was developed using the best model’s algorithm for HCC prediction. ConclusionsIf further validation studies confirm these results, the SVM model’s application potentially augments early HCC detection in T2D patients.

Rate and Risk of Follicular Carcinoma in Patients with a Cytologic Diagnosis of Follicular Neoplasia: Experience from Tertiary Hospital in Ethiopia

Rate and Risk of Follicular Carcinoma in Patients with a Cytologic Diagnosis of Follicular Neoplasia: Experience from Tertiary Hospital in Ethiopia

Statin Use and Reduced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Recent evidence suggests potential clinical benefits of statin in cancer chemoprevention and treatment. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is expected to become the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to investigate the association between statin initiation and the risk of HCC among patients with NAFLD. In this study using the Optum de-identified Clinformatics database, Cox proportional hazards regression model was performed to determine the risk of HCC in statin initiators versus nonusers. We incorporated inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to minimize potential confounding. Among 272,431 adults with NAFLD diagnosis, IPTW model shows that statin initiators had 53% less risk of developing HCC compared with nonusers (hazard ratio [HR], 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-0.60). In the subcohort with fibrosis-4 index data available, statin initiation was associated with 56% hazard reduction of developing HCC in NAFLD after adjusting for fibrosis-4 index score (HR, 0.44; 0.30-0.65). The association between statin initiation and lower risk of HCC development was observed for both lipophilic statin (HR, 0.49; 0.37-0.65) and hydrophilic statin (HR, 0.40; 0.21-0.76). Moreover, we observed greater hazards reduction as the dose and duration of statin use increased. NAFLD patients with more than 600 cumulative defined daily doses of statin had 70% reduction in hazards of developing HCC (HR, 0.30; 0.20-0.43). Our study provides strong evidence for the association between statin initiation and reduced risk of HCC development in NAFLD patients. These findings imply that statin can be used as a protective medication for NAFLD patients to reduce the risk of HCC.

Statins Reduce Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease: A 17-Year Longitudinal Study.

Simple SummaryStatins are medicines used to treat patients with high lipid levels (hyperlipidemia). Studies have reported that patients undergoing statin therapy are at reduced risk of developing liver cancer. In this study, we compared the risk of developing liver cancer among hyperlipidemic patients with and without statin therapy in three patient groups classified by renal function: normal renal function (NRF) group, chronic kidney disease (CKD) not requiring dialysis, and dialysis-dependent end stage of real disease (ESRD). Our results showed that the risk of developing liver cancer increased progressively from NRF group to CKD and ESRD groups, but was lower for patients receiving statins treatment than non-treated patients. We also found that the statin therapy effectiveness was better in patients taking hydrophilic statins than in those taking lipophilic statins, and in patients taking statin-ezetimibe combination than in those taking statin alone, particularly in the NRF group. Ezetimibe is also an effective option of treating hyperlipidemia.Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common cancer in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in Taiwan. Whether statin therapy associated with the HCC risk in hyperlipidemic patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and ESRD is unclear. Using population-based insurance claim data from Taiwan, we identified from hyperlipidemic patients taking statins or not (677,364 versus 867,707) in 1999–2015. Among them, three pairs of propensity score matched statin and non-statin cohorts were established by renal function: 413,867 pairs with normal renal function (NRF), 46,851 pairs with CKD and 6372 pairs with ESRD. Incidence rates of HCC were compared, by the end of 2016, between statin and non-statin cohorts, between hydrophilic statins (HS) and lipophilic statins (LS) users, and between statin-ezetimibe combination therapy (SECT) and statin monotherapy (SM) users. The HCC incidence increased progressively from NRF to CKD and ESRD groups, was lower in the statin cohort than in the non-statin cohort, with the differences of incidence per 10,000 person-years increased from (7.77 vs. 21.4) in NRF group to (15.8 vs. 37.1) in CKD group to (19.1 vs. 47.8) in ESRD group. The incidence increased with age, but the Cox method estimated hazard ratios showed a greater statin effectiveness in older patients. Among statin users, the HCC incidence was lower in HS users than in LS users, and lower in SECT users than in SM users, but the difference was significant only in the NRF group. Hyperlipidemic patients with CKD and ESRD receiving statins are at reduced HCC risks; the treatment effectiveness is superior for HS users than for LS users, and for SECT users than for SM users, but not significant.

Impact of tenofovir alafenamide vs. entecavir on hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

Whether entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is better at preventing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. The present study was conducted to explore the ability of these two antivirals to prevent HCC. From 2012 to 2019, treatment-naïve CHB patients undergoing ETV or TAF therapy were recruited at three academic teaching hospitals. The TAF group comprised patients starting TAF as first-line antiviral and those switching antivirals from tenofovir disoproxil fumarate to TAF. Patients with decompensated cirrhosis or HCC at enrollment were excluded from the analysis. Cumulative probabilities of HCC were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. In total, 1810 patients (1525 and 285 in ETV and TAF groups, respectively) were recruited. The annual HCC incidence was statistically not different between the ETV and TAF groups (1.67 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years, respectively) with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 0.681 (p = 0.255), as determined by multivariate analysis. Male, hypertension, liver cirrhosis, FIB-4 index, and albumin were independent prognostic factors for HCC development. Propensity score-matched and inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses yielded similar results, with non-statistically different HCC incidence between the ETV and TAF groups (1.07 vs. 1.19 per 100 person-years (HR = 0.973; p = 0.953) and 1.67 vs. 1.89 per 100 person-years, respectively (HR = 0.949; p = 0.743). These findings suggest that ETV- and TAF-treated CHB patients have similar risk of developing HCC. Further studies with the larger sample size and longer follow-up are needed to validate these results.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals.

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic liver disease from dynamic modular networks

BackgroundDiscovering potential predictive risks in the super precarcinomatous phase of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) without any clinical manifestations is impossible under normal paradigm but critical to control this complex disease.MethodsIn this study, we utilized a proposed sequential allosteric modules (AMs)-based approach and quantitatively calculated the topological structural variations of these AMs.ResultsWe found the total of 13 oncogenic allosteric modules (OAMs) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB), cirrhosis and HCC network used SimiNEF. We obtained the 11 highly correlated gene pairs involving 15 genes (r > 0.8, P < 0.001) from the 12 OAMs (the out-of-bag (OOB) classification error rate < 0.5) partial consistent with those in independent clinical microarray data, then a three-gene set (cyp1a2-cyp2c19-il6) was optimized to distinguish HCC from non-tumor liver tissues using random forests with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.973. Furthermore, we found significant inhibitory effect on the tumor growth of Bel-7402, Hep 3B and Huh7 cell lines in zebrafish treated with the compounds affected those three genes.ConclusionsThese findings indicated that the sequential AMs-based approach could detect HCC risk in the patients with chronic liver disease and might be applied to any time-dependent risk of cancer.

Additional more factors should be included in predicting risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection

With great interest, we carefully read the study conducted by Chang et al. in a recent issue of the Journal of Viral Hepatitis.1 The authors validated the accuracy for 3- and 5-year hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions by age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis (AASL), RESCUE-B, PAGE-B and modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B) scores in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients treated with entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), and the AASL score showed the highest predictive accuracy. However, some issues should be interpreted cautiously in light of the following.