Changes In Carbon Storage Research Articles

Analysis of Annual Spatiotemporal Variations in Carbon Stock in the Urban Agglomeration of the Middle Yangtze River Basin, China

Terrestrial ecosystem carbon stock (TECS) is critical to socioeconomic development and ecosystem services and is jointly affected by land use and cover and climate change. However, the dynamics of long-term annual TECS levels in urban agglomeration remain largely unknown, and research mostly ignores the spatial heterogeneity of climate factors, compromising sustainable environmental management and land planning strategies. To this end, we integrated field observations of carbon density, land use, and climate factors to map the annual distribution of TECS and analyzed their spatiotemporal variations and policy implications in the urban agglomeration of the middle Yangtze River Basin in China from 1990 to 2020. The results showed that 43,855.47 km2 of the land of the urban agglomeration changed from 1990 to 2020, accounting for 12.54% of the study area. The farmland and forest land area fluctuated and reduced, and the construction land area increased significantly. The increase in construction land was mainly from farmland and forest land. The TECS in urban agglomerations underwent a remarkable change, the overall trend fluctuated downward, and the maximum interannual variation was 1560 Tg. The transfer of construction land, farmland, forest land, shrubs, grassland, and other land mainly caused the change in carbon storage. Due to abnormal climate change, the urban agglomeration in some areas illustrated carbon storage with a spatially aggregated distribution. When considering the impact of climate change on carbon density, the TECS changes of land types other than forest land were found to be consistent with the area change but more significant due to climate change. The research results can provide reference data for regional land management policy formulation and realization of “dual carbon” goals.

From Individual Observations to Global Assessments: Tracing the Marine Carbon Knowledge Value Chain

Marine carbon observations (MCOs) provide essential data to trace historical and current changes in marine carbon storage and fluxes that ultimately feed into the Global Carbon Budget and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Therefore, MCOs play a key role in informing global climate policy as well as ocean governance. However, they only achieve this potential if multiple sources of observations are combined and analyzed jointly. This implies an immense coordination effort by the international MCO community which developed, e.g., joint standards for the collection of (meta‐)data, quality control processes, data platforms, etc. This article traces the value chain of MCOs, concretely for CO2, from data collection to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Based on an interdisciplinary research project, the study illuminates which structures and practices the marine carbon community has developed to integrate different observations and measurement technologies, starting from German research institutes and agencies and expanding to the European and international networks to which they contribute. Combining a social network analysis with qualitative insights from in‐depth interviews, the article identifies key information providers and brokers and pinpoints systemic vulnerabilities, e.g., where connections between observation networks or data platforms are maintained based on personal relationships or ad‐hoc interactions rather than automated data submissions, or where temporally limited third party funding threatens the continued existence of the observation network.

Analyzing and Predicting LUCC and Carbon Storage Changes in Xinjiang’s Arid Ecosystems Under the Carbon Neutrality Goal

Land use/cover change (LUCC) significantly alters the carbon storage capacity of ecosystems with a profound impact on global climate change. The influence of land use changes on carbon storage capacity and the projection of future carbon stock changes under different scenarios are essential for achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals. This study applied the PLUS-InVEST model to predict the land use pattern in China’s arid Xinjiang Region in 2020–2050. The model assessed the carbon stock under four scenarios. Analysis of the historical LUCC data showed that the carbon storage in Xinjiang in 2000–2020 in five-year intervals was 85.69 × 108, 85.79 × 108, 85.87 × 108, 86.01 × 108, and 86.71 × 108 t. The rise in carbon sequestration capacity in the study area, attributable to the expansion of cropland, water, and unused land areas, brought a concomitant increment in the regional carbon storage by 1.03 × 108 t. However, prediction results for 2030–2050 showed that carbon storage capacity under the four scenarios would decrease by 0.11 × 108 and increase by 1.2 × 108, 0.98 × 108 t, and 1.28 × 108 t, respectively. The findings indicate that different land transfer modes will significantly affect Xinjiang’s carbon storage quantity, distribution, and trend. This research informs the past, present, and future of carbon storage in arid ecosystems of Xinjiang. It offers a reference for Xinjiang’s development planning and informs the efforts to achieve the carbon peak and neutrality goals.

Estimation of carbon stock and economic value of Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) is one of China’s national parks with high ecological significance and ecological vulnerability. In order to promote the healthy development of national park ecosystems, it is extremely important to investigate the carbon sequestration potential and the economic value of carbon sequestration in the SNP. Here, we comprehensively analyzed the characteristics of land use change from 1985 to 2022 based on the land use transfer matrix and land use dynamic degree, calculated the ecosystem carbon storage based on the InVEST model, and estimated the economic value of carbon storage in each period combined with compound interest present value method. The results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2022, carbon stocks generally went through three phases: increasing, stabilizing, and decreasing. (2) Low carbon density areas were concentrated in the Kekexili Natural Reserve in the Yangtze River Source Park and a small part of the Yellow River Source Park and Lancang River Source Park; The high carbon density area was concentrated in the water area and the forest land in the southeast of the Lancang River Source Park. (3) Land use change in SNP had a decisive impact on carbon storage change, and the economic value of carbon storage in SNP continued to increase from 1985 to 2022. In order to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of carbon sinks and the reduction of carbon emissions in the SNP area, it is necessary to further study the carbon cycle process, carbon storage and carbon emissions in the region in the future.

Growth Simulation of Agriculturally Dominant Cities by Incorporating Multiple Drivers into a CA-based patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model: A Case Study in Siracusa, Italy

Abstract. Understanding the historical trajectory of land use and land cover (LULC) and predicting future alterations is essential to advancing the SDGs. Current researches on LULC in agriculture-dominated cities primarily focuses on the spatiotemporal pattern analysis of carbon storage changes, with relatively little attention given to LULC simulation studies. Moreover, most studies employing cellular automata (CA) models concentrate on urban centers, overlooking the specific sustainable development of agricultural cities. This paper selects Siracusa, Italy, as a case study, incorporating multiple drivers and constructing four development scenarios. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model is employed to predict the LULC for Siracusa by 2030 and to examine potential transformations under each scenario. Our findings show that 60% of the land in Siracusa is designated as cropland, predominantly situated in flat regions. Our simulation results reveal that urbanization and demographic growth are the main factors driving cropland conversion to urban areas. Different development scenarios exhibit significant variations in future land use structures; the cropland protection scenario emphasizes the stability and sustainability of agricultural development, whereas the economic development scenario highlights the substantial impact of urban and industrial expansion on agricultural land. These insights are instrumental for land use planning and policy-making in Siracusa and other agriculture-centric cities, providing a framework to guide urbanization while promoting agricultural sustainability.

Integrated assessment of land use and carbon storage changes in the Tulufan-Hami Basin under the background of urbanization and climate change

Precise forecasting of land use modifications and carbon storage (CS) alterations is essential for effective regulatory measures and ecological quality enhancement. However, there are limited studies on land use dynamics and its impact on CS in the arid regions of Northwest China. Therefore, this study explores land use and CS changes in the Tulufan-Hami Basin from 2000 to 2050. The SD-FLUS and InVEST models were employed to simulate land use patterns and assess CS under three scenarios (SSP126-EP, SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED). The results of our study indicate that the area of cropland and built-up land both increased dramatically from 2000 to 2020, expanding by 347 km2 and 505 km2 respectively. CS initially rose by 0.74 × 106t from 2000 to 2010 but then declined by 1.37 × 106t from 2010 to 2020. Construction expansion and grassland degradation drove the decline. By 2050, the SSP126-EP scenario predicts an increase in CS of 3.64 × 106t compared to 2020. However, both the SSP245-ND and SSP585-ED scenarios show significant decreases, with a decline of 0.55 × 106t and 1.87 × 106t respectively. These findings provide a foundation for global ecological preservation and CS enhancement in arid regions.

Land use Change and Its Impact on Carbon Stock in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2020

Land use is one of the important factors causing the change in ecosystem carbon storage. Studying the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage driven by land use change is of great significance for enhancing the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, slowing down the effect of climate warming, and helping to achieve the goal of "dual carbon." Taking the Tarim River Basin as the research object, based on four periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020, the InVEST model carbon module was applied to estimate and analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the basin, and the impact of land use change on the carbon sequestration capacity of the basin ecosystem and the spatial differentiation driving law of carbon storage were discussed. The results showed as follows： ① Grassland and unused land were the main land use types in the Tarim River Basin, accounting for more than 90% of the total land types, followed by cultivated land, forest land, water area, and construction land. From 1990 to 2020, the area of cultivated land, construction land, and unused land increased, while the area of grassland, forest land, and water area decreased. The total transfer area of land use type in the basin from 1990 to 2020 was 2.19×105 km2, and grassland was the main transfer type （accounting for 44.22% of the total transfer area）, which was mainly converted into unused land and cultivated land. ② The overall spatial distribution of carbon stocks in the Tarim River Basin was lower in the middle and higher in the surrounding areas. The high-to-high-cluster and high-to-low-cluster carbon stocks were mainly located in the distribution areas of woodland and grassland, and the low-value carbon stocks were mainly distributed in the unused land type areas in the middle of the Tarim River Basin. Over the past 30 years, an accumulative loss of 9×107 Mg was observed. The center of gravity of carbon storage change shifted to the southeast, and most of the areas of carbon storage reduction were cultivated land and unused land expanding to the surrounding areas, encroaching on grassland and forest land with higher carbon density. ③ The contribution of different land use types to carbon storage was grassland, forest land, cultivated land, unused land, construction land, and water area. ④ The spatial differentiation of carbon stocks in the Tarim River Basin was influenced by various driving factors such as terrain, climate, environment, and population and their synergies.

Estimating vegetation structure and aboveground carbon storage in Western Australia using GEDI LiDAR, Landsat and Sentinel data

Abstract Worsening climate change impacts are amplifying the need for accurate estimates of vegetation structure and aboveground biomass density (AGBD) to assess changes in biodiversity and carbon storage. In Australia, increasing wildfire frequency and interest in the role of forests in the carbon cycle necessitates biomass mapping across large geographic extents to monitor forest change. The availability of spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) optimised for vegetation structure mapping through the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides an opportunity for large-scale forest AGBD estimates of higher accuracy. This study assessed the use of the GEDI canopy height product to predict woody AGBD across five vegetation types in Western Australia: tall eucalypt forests, eucalypt open‒woodlands, low-lying heathland, tropical eucalypt savannas, and tussock and hummock grasslands. Canopy height models were developed using random forest regressions trained on GEDI canopy height discrete point data. Predictor variables included spectral bands and vegetation indices derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) Sentinel‒1 data, and multispectral Landsat and Sentinel‒2 data. AGBD was subsequently estimated using power-law models derived by relating the predicted canopy heights to field AGBD plots. Mapping was conducted for 2020 and 2021. The accuracy of canopy height predictions varied with height quantiles; models underestimated the height of taller trees and overestimated the height of smaller trees. A similar underestimation and overestimation trend was observed for the AGBD estimates. The mean carbon stock was estimated at 69.0 ±12.0 MgCha-1 in the tall eucalypt forests of the Warren region; 33.8 ± 5.0 MgCha-1 for the open eucalypt woodlands in the South Jarrah region; 7.1 ± 1.4 MgCha-1 for the heathland and shrublands in the Geraldton Sandplains region; 43.9 ± 4.9 MgCha-1 for the Kimberley eucalypt savanna; and 3.9 ± 1.0 MgCha-1 for the Kimberley savanna grasslands. This approach provides a useful framework for the future development of this process for fire management, and habitat health monitoring.

A Study on the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Cover Change and Carbon Storage in the Northern Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi Based on the InVEST Model

In recent years, the international community has increasingly focused on the “dual carbon” issue, as human-induced land use changes significantly impact ecosystem structure and carbon cycling. This study analyzes land use changes in the economic zone of the northern Gulf of Guangxi from 1980 to 2020, utilizing the InVEST model to simulate spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage and conducting zoning studies through spatial analysis. The findings reveal that ① forest land and arable land dominate the northern Gulf of Guangxi’s land use, with notable changes observed in forest land, unused land, and construction land areas. Forest land and construction land have increased by 1761.5 km2 and 1001.19 km2, respectively, while unused land has decreased by 1881.18 km2 from 2000 to 2020. ② The total carbon storage values in the northern Gulf of Guangxi in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were, respectively, 504.91 × 106/t, 487.29 × 106/t, and 500.31 × 106/t, with the expansion of construction land and conversion of forest land being the main reasons for the decrease in carbon storage. ③ In the northern Gulf of Guangxi, there is a slight upward trend in total carbon storage values over time. Spatially, higher carbon storage values are observed in mountainous and hilly areas at high altitudes, while the central and southern coastal areas exhibit lower carbon storage values. ④ The local spatial autocorrelation results reveal that Pu Bei County exhibits high–high clustering of carbon storage, while He Pu County undergoes a transition from high–low to low–low clustering, and several other administrative areas in Beihai demonstrates low–low clustering. Due to the imperative of economic development, the expansion of urban construction land encroaches upon ecological land, resulting in a decline in carbon storage. Therefore, in the Northern Gulf of Guangxi, it is essential to implement measures such as reforestation and establish ecological protection areas such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands to develop effective carbon sequestration methods and compensate for the carbon loss caused by the expansion of construction land.

Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of land use and carbon storage based on PLUS-InVEST model in Shanxi Province, China

AbstractCoal mining in Shanxi Province for many years has caused regional land-use changes, seriously affecting the local ecological environment. To promote the green and sustainable development of this area and achieve the goal of “double carbon”, the PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the nearly 20 year land-use types transfer and carbon storage changes in the region based on the five periods of land-use data of Shanxi Province from 2002 to 2022 in this study. Three scenarios were set up to predict the data in 2032, and the driving forces of spatial differentiation of the carbon storage were analyzed by geographical detector. The results showed that: (1) Land-use change had an important impact on carbon storage. Construction land in Shanxi Province expanded by 3068.47 km2 from 2002 to 2022, an increase of 59.33%, and the rest of the land types, except for forest, continued to decrease, resulting in a decline in total carbon storage of 228.88 × 104 t. (2) The natural development scenario shows the same transfer of land as before in 2032. Under the urban development scenario, the expansion of construction land in Shanxi Province is the largest, and carbon storage decreases instead of increasing; under the ecological protection scenario forest and grassland increase, and carbon storage increase the most, with a value of 738.67 × 104 t. (3) The dominant driving factors for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Shanxi Province were the land-use degree comprehensive index and night light index, with the explanatory power of 0.866 and 0.755, respectively, and the interaction of the land-use degree comprehensive index with other factors had the most significant effect on the change of carbon storage. The study suggested that the expansion of construction land into high carbon storage categories was the main reason for the loss of carbon storage, and Shanxi Province should optimize the land-use structure and adopt ecological protection works to increase carbon storage effectively.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Predictions and Drivers of Carbon Storage in the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration via the PLUS-InVEST-GeoDetector Model

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) significantly influences the dynamics of carbon storage in thin terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating the interplay between land use alterations and carbon sequestration is crucial for refining regional land use configurations, sustaining the regional carbon balance, and augmenting regional carbon storage. Using land use data from the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration (PRDUA) from 2010 to 2020, this study employed PLUS-InVEST models to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and carbon storage. Projections for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 were performed under three distinct developmental scenarios, namely, natural development (ND), city priority development (CPD), and ecological protection development (EPD), to forecast changes in land use and carbon storage. The geographic detector model was leveraged to dissect the determinants of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon storage, offering pertinent recommendations. The results showed that (1) during 2010–2020, the carbon storage in the PRDUA showed a decreasing trend, with a total decrease of 9.52 × 106 Mg, and the spatial distribution of carbon density in the urban agglomeration was imbalanced and showed an overall trend in increasing from the center to the periphery. (2) Clear differences in carbon storage were observed among the three development scenarios of the PRDUA between 2030 and 2050. Only the EPD scenario achieved an increase in carbon storage of 1.10 × 106 Mg, and it was the scenario with the greatest potential for carbon sequestration. (3) Among the drivers of the evolution of spatial land use patterns, population, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and distance to the railway had the greatest influence on LUCC. (4) The annual average temperature, annual average rainfall, and GDP exerted a significant influence on the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage in the PRDUA, and the interactions between the 15 drivers and changes in carbon storage predominantly manifested as nonlinear and double-factor enhancements. The results provide a theoretical basis for future spatial planning and achieving carbon neutrality in the PRDUA.

Influence of stand characteristics and management activities on aboveground carbon storage in Japanese cedar and cypress plantations: Sustainable management implications

Tree plantations substantially sequester carbon in aboveground biomass and soil and serve as an alternative to forests in mitigating global warming. This study investigated the relationship between aboveground carbon and stand characteristics and management activities in two Japanese plantations (cedar and cypress) for their sustainable management viewpoint, which has not been studied before. Aboveground carbon stock ranged from 3.96 to 248.53 Mg C ha-1 in 9- to 188-year-old Japanese cedar and 7.09 to 119.17 Mg C ha-1 in 11- to 129-year-old Japanese cypress plantations. Annual aboveground carbon storage differed significantly between the two species. Aboveground carbon storage in Japanese cedar was affected by stand characteristics (e.g. soil moisture, electrical conductivity, soil texture especially sand and clay, site quality, and stem density) and management activities (e.g. initial silvicultural practices, stem exclusion practices, pest and wildlife management and land management). However, the same in Japanese cypress was affected by stand characteristics (e.g. soil moisture, electrical conductivity, soil texture especially sand, bulk density, site quality, stem density, and elevation) along with management activities (e.g. initial silvicultural practices, stem exclusion practices and land management). Therefore, continuous monitoring and periodic assessment of the stand characteristics and management activities may be taken into consideration in future policy-making decisions to promote aboveground carbon storage and climate change mitigation ability of these plantations in Japan on a sustained basis.

Unveiling mid-century conservation priorities: Co-occurrence of biodiversity, climate change exposure, and carbon storage in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin, China

The global challenges of biodiversity loss and climate change necessitate the implementation of integrated conservation strategies. A forward-looking framework is necessary to reconcile climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts with biodiversity goals, supporting effective long-term planning and management of protected areas (PAs) network. This study develops a comprehensive approach to identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation until 2050, integrating assessments of species distributions, climate change exposure and carbon storage under distinct shared socioeconomic pathways. The Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin (MLYRB) in China serves as a case study. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling (ESDM) method, we predicted the distributions of 435 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species and plants. We then mapped their richness in the MLYRB. Distance-based climate velocity analysis was performed to identify climate change coldspots and hotspots. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and InVEST model were coupled to simulate carbon storage changes. Systematic conservation planning tool, Zonation, was used to prioritize species conservation hotspots. By examining the co-occurrence of these hotspots with climate change coldspots/hotspots and areas of high carbon storage, conservation priorities for the MLYRB were revealed. Our findings indicate that 18.27–24.94 % of the MLYRB risks over 20 % species richness declines by 2050 under various scenarios, while increases over 10 % are projected for only 0.81–1.75 % of the area. Co-occurrence analysis highlights significant associations, such as a 32.26 % overlap between species conservation hotspots and climate change hotspots in SSP1–2.6. Particularly noteworthy is the substantial co-occurrence (57.93–59.50 % across scenarios) between areas maximizing species conservation and carbon storage. The identified conservation priority areas, covering 41.95 % of the MLYRB (441554 km2), hold potential for long-term species conservation, climate resilience, and nature-based climate solutions by 2050. However, only 6.08 % of these priorities currently benefit from protection. These results offer valuable guidance for region-specific landscape management and conservation policy aligned with international goals. The presented methodology provides a broader application, serving as a valuable resource for prioritizing conservation efforts in other regions integrating biodiversity, climate change adaptation, and mitigation goals.

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Changes in Carbon Stocks in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Huaihe River Basin and Future Multi-scenario Simulation Prediction

The Huaihe River Basin is located in the north-south climate transition zone of China. The change of carbon storage in this area is of great significance for predicting the future ecological protection, mitigating climate change, and maintaining sustainable development of the Huaihe River Basin. The middle and upper reaches of Huaihe River Basin （above Bengbu station） were taken as the research area. Based on the land use data from 1980 to 2020, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the land use types in the study area from 2030 to 2100 under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, and the continuation of land use status. The carbon module in the InVEST model was used to simulate and predict the carbon storage from 1980 to 2020 and the carbon storage from 2030 to 2100 under various scenarios, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin were compared and analyzed. The results showed that： ① From 1980 to 2020, the basin showed a decrease in both cultivated land and grassland,and the area of forest,water, construction, and unused land all increased, among which the area of cultivated land continued to decrease, with a total decrease of 4 699 km2 in 40 a. Construction land continued to increase, with a total increase of 4 592 km2 in 40 a. ② The carbon storage in the basin showed a downward trend, with a total reduction of 1.05×107 t from 1980 to 2020. ③ In the four scenarios, the area of each land type had different degrees of change, and that of the SSP1-2.6 scenario was relatively small out of the four scenarios. ④ Compared with the carbon storage in 2020, the carbon storage in the SSP1-2.6 scenario increased by 8.7×104 t, the carbon storage in the SSP2-4.5 scenario decreased by 1.42×107 t, the carbon storage in the SSP5-8.5 scenario decreased by 1.34×107 t, and the carbon storage in the current continuation scenario decreased by 1.22×107 t. The study can provide a scientific basis for land use structure management and ecological protection in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin （above Bengbu station） in the future.

Simulating Changes in Ecosystem Carbon Storage and Analyzing Influencing Factors in the Central Zhejiang under the Background of LUCC

Central Zhejiang is the key ecological function area of Zhejiang Province and an important part of the Qiantang River ecological corridor. Conducting simulations of ecosystem carbon storage changes and analyzing influencing factors under land-use changes in this region is of significant importance for achieving the goals of "peak carbon" and "carbon neutrality" at an early stage. This study, based on the land use data of five periods from 1980 to 2020 in central Zhejiang, coupled the GeoSOS-FLUS and the InVEST model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage in the region over time and project for the year 2030. The study also explored the impact of socio-economic and natural factors on changes in carbon storage. The results showed that： ① Between 1980 and 2020, urban construction land in the Zhejiang Central Region increased by 289.91%, with cultivated land and forest land being the main sources, leading to a 3% decrease in ecosystem carbon storage, amounting to 588.88×104 tons. ② High-value areas of carbon storage in the Zhejiang Central Region were concentrated in P'an-an County, Jinyun County, Wuyi County, and other areas. ③ Under the two different scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, carbon storage in the research area was projected to decrease by 1.05% and 0.05%, respectively, by 2030 compared to that in 2020. ④ Natural factors dominated the distribution of carbon storage, but their influence was gradually decreasing over time. The impact of socio-economic factors was increasing, and the combined effect of socio-economic and natural factors far outweighed the influence of a single factor on carbon storage distribution. These findings can serve as a scientific reference and guide for mitigating carbon loss in ecosystems, promoting ecosystem protection, facilitating sustainable social development, and achieving the "dual carbon" goals in Zhejiang and other regions nationwide.

Spatial-temporal Change and Driving Force of Carbon Storage in Three-River-Source National Park Based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodector Model

Exploring the spatial-temporal changes, driving forces, and future development tendency of the carbon sequestration service function of the Three-River-Source National Park ecosystem has great significance for regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Historical land-use data of Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were selected at five-year intervals, and based on the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model, the spatial-temporal changes of historical carbon storage were analyzed, and the driving forces of spatial-temporal variation were explored combined with multiple factors. The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park in 2030 was predicted under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection. The results showed that： ① The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park showed a fluctuating characteristic of increase-decrease-increase-decrease from 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage was increased by 41.85×106 t overall, and the grassland took the largest contribution. ② The spatial distribution characteristics of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park had little change between 1990 to 2020, and the evolution of the spatial distribution was relatively stable. The contribution ratio of the Yangtze River source park, Lancang River source park, and Yellow River source park was 7∶1∶2, which was roughly equivalent to the park area. ③ The major driving factors of the spatial-temporal variation of carbon storage in Three-River-Source National Park from 1990 to 2020 were： FVC, soil type, and annual precipitation. The interactive detection of each driving factor showed dual-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. ④ The carbon storage of Three-River-Source National Park was predicted to decrease by 4.87% and 3.98% from 2020 to 2030 under the scenarios of natural development and ecological protection, respectively, and the carbon storage reduction under the ecological protection scenario had a significant inhibitory effect. The findings can provide data support for national spatial planning of Three-River-Source National Park and the enhancement of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

Carbon isotope budget indicates biological disequilibrium dominated ocean carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum

Understanding the causes of the ~90 ppmv atmospheric CO2 swings between glacial and interglacial climates is an important open challenge in paleoclimate research. Although the regularity of the glacial-interglacial cycles hints at a single driving mechanism, Earth System models require many independent physical and biological processes to explain the full observed CO2 signal. Here we show that biologically sequestered carbon in the ocean can explain an atmospheric CO2 change of 75 ± 40 ppmv, based on a mass balance calculation using published carbon isotopic measurements. An analysis of the carbon isotopic signatures of different water masses indicates similar regenerated carbon inventories at the Last Glacial Maximum and during the Holocene, requiring that the change in carbon storage was dominated by disequilibrium. We attribute the inferred change in carbon disequilibrium to expansion of sea-ice or change in the overturning circulation.

Evaluation of driving effects of carbon storage change in the source of the Yellow River: A perspective with CMIP6 future development scenarios

Understanding how future climate scenarios impact land use/cover (LUC) and carbon storage (CS) is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. However, research often overlooks the spatiotemporal impacts of future climate and socioeconomic changes on CS. This study integrates system dynamic (SD), patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS), the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and the geographical detector to assess the LUC and CS evolution in the source of the Yellow River (SYR) from 2020 to 2060. Utilizing carbon density and LUC data, we explored the influence of natural and socioeconomic factors on CS under five shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP-RCPs) scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that: (1) Ecological land, including woodland, grassland, and wetland, expanded more under SSP126 compared to SSP245, with SSP345, SSP460, and SSP585 showing a trend of degradation tied to deeper economic contribution. (2) By 2060, CS in terrestrial ecosystem under SSP126, SSP245, SSP345, SSP460, and SSP585 were 702.33 × 106 t, 700.33 × 106 t, 697.22 × 106 t, 696.03 × 106 t, and 691.21 × 106 t, respectively. This represents changes of 3.69 × 106 t, 1.69 × 106 t, −1.49 × 106 t, −2.68 × 106 t, and −7.43 × 106 t compared to 2020. (3) Soil type predominantly influenced the spatial differentiation of CS, with significant interactions with precipitation. This research provides new insights into land redistribution, economic strategies, and achieving carbon neutrality.

Dynamics of structural indices and organic carbon pool across a haplic acrisol under secondary tropical rainforest at Umudike Abia State

Differences in vegetation types over a landscape influences the structural behaviour and organic carbon pool of soils thereby affecting site-specific management decisions. This study aimed at establishing the differences in structural indices and organic carbon pool across a soil under secondary rainforest vegetation. Nine replicates of auger and core soil samples were randomly collected from the site at 0 – 20 cm depth. Soil samples were prepared and analysed at a laboratory. Data obtained were subjected to geospatial analysis using a Geographical Information System (GIS) software package. Results showed that changes in organic carbon storage ranged from 40 – 48 ton / ha, BD ranged from 1.39 – 1.42 mg / m3, clay flocculation index ranged from 50 – 68 %, aggregated silt + clay ranged from 9 – 12 %, clay dispersion index ranged from 32 – 42 %, dispersion ratio ranged from 26 – 32 %, mean weight diameter ranged from 0.75 – 1.05 mm, saturated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 3.1 – 3.8 cm / mins and total porosity ranged from 46.4 – 47.6 %. Regions of weak micro aggregaion dominated the land while regions of increased stability of macro aggregates were dominant. Regions of increased soil organic carbon storage occupied about half portion of the land. Greater portion of the land was noted for increased bulk density, reduced total porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Consequently, there were changes in soil structural properties and organic carbon storage across the studied area.

Multi-scenario prediction and attribution analysis of carbon storage of ecological system in the Huaihe River Basin, China.

Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000-2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability.