Carbon Sequestration Potential Of Forests Research Articles

Carbon stock projection for four major forest plantation species in Japan

Carbon sequestration via afforestation and forest growth is effective for mitigating global warming. Accurate and robust information on forest growth characteristics by tree species, region, and large-scale land-use change is vital and future prediction of forest carbon stocks based on this information is of great significance. These predictions allow exploring forestry practices that maximize carbon sequestration by forests, including wood production. Forest inventories based on field measurements are considered the most accurate method for estimating forest carbon stocks. Japan's national forest inventories (NFIs) provide stand volumes for all Japanese forests, and estimates from direct field observations (m-NFIs) are the most reliable. Therefore, using the m-NFI from 2009 to 2013, we selected four major forest plantation species in Japan: Cryptomeria japonica, Chamaecyparis obtusa, Pinus spp., and Larix kaempferi and presented their forest age–carbon density function. We then estimated changes in forest carbon stocks from the past to the present using the functions. Next, we investigated the differences in the carbon sequestration potential of forests, including wood production, between five forestry practice scenarios with varying harvesting and afforestation rates, until 2061. Our results indicate that, for all four forest types, the estimates of growth rates and past forest carbon stocks in this study were higher than those considered until now. The predicted carbon sequestration from 2011 to 2061, assuming that 100 % of harvested carbon is retained for a long time, twice the rate of harvesting compared to the current rate, and a 100 % afforestation rate in harvested area, was three to four times higher than that in a scenario with no harvesting or replanting. Our results suggest that planted Japanese forests can exhibit a high carbon sequestration potential under the premise of active management, harvesting, afforestation, and prolonging the residence time of stored carbon in wood products with technology development.

How Does Carbon Trading Impact China’s Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential and Carbon Leakage?

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the impact of forest carbon sink trading in China, examining its effects from 2018 to 2030 under various carbon pricing scenarios. Using the Global Timber Market Model (GFPM) along with the IPCC Carbon Sink Model, we simulate the potential shifts in China’s forest resources and the global timber market. The study finds that forest carbon trading markedly boosts China’s forest stock and carbon sequestration, aligning with its dual carbon objectives. China’s implementation of forest carbon trading is likely to result in a degree of carbon leakage on a global scale. During the forecast period, our study reveals that the carbon leakage rates under three different forest carbon trading price scenarios, which at estimated at 81.5% (USD 9.8/ton), 64.0% (USD 25/ton), and 57.8% (USD 54/ton), respectively. Notably, the leakage rate diminishes as the forest carbon sink price increases. Furthermore, analysis also suggests that regional variations in the average carbon sequestration capacity of forests, alongside the structure of China’s timber imports, emerge as significant factors influencing the extent of carbon leakage.

A regime shift between soil moisture and temperature in the 1950s over the permafrost region of Northeast China

AbstractPermafrost is one of the essential carbon pools in the world. Due to limited studies on historical soil moisture changes and the coupling relationship between soil moisture and temperature in permafrost regions, significant uncertainty exists in the carbon loss in permafrost predicted by different models under global warming scenarios. Based on the tree‐ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica Litv. growing in the southern edge of the Eurasian continuous permafrost zone, we reconstructed the summer (June–September) 0–1 m soil moisture variations from 1705 to 2009, which could explain 45.6% of the variance in the observed soil moisture. Overall, local precipitation and temperature exhibited statistically significant positive feedback (p < 0.001) to soil moisture before the 1950s, indicating that the warm/humid climate pattern was conducive to soil moisture conservation before the Anthropocene Epoch. However, the effect of temperature on soil moisture has shifted suddenly to negative since the 1950s, implying that the positive soil moisture‐temperature relationship during the past three centuries has been disrupted by the unprecedented warming in the Modern Warm Period. Furthermore, we found that the temporal relationship of the soil moisture‐temperature (15‐year sliding correlation) in the study area is negatively regulated by the global mean temperature variations (p < 0.01). The regime shift between soil moisture and temperature might be attributed to the superimposed influence of natural and anthropogenic factors since the 1950s. Although the warming leads to the melting of the permafrost layer, and thus the increase in soil moisture content, the enhanced evapotranspiration caused by warming up results in more water loss and drier soil. This study provides historical evidence of shifted soil moisture‐temperature coupling in the permafrost zone, warning that soil moisture in the permafrost region may further decline under global warming scenarios, thereby affecting vegetation growth and forest carbon sequestration potential.

Cost Valuation and Climate Mitigation Impacts of Forest Management: A Case Study from Piatra Craiului National Park, Romania

With the intensification of the effects of climate change, the urgent need to address their drivers, especially greenhouse gas emissions, has become essential. In this context, forests offer a robust solution, with their potential to store and mitigate carbon emissions. However, striking a balance is critical given the significant economic contribution of the forestry and wood-based industries, which account for about 5% of Romania’s GDP and employ 6% (around 300 thousand) of its active workforce. This study, conducted in the Piatra Craiului National Park located in Romania’s Southern Carpathians, we utilize the EFISCEN application to generate three distinct 50-year forest evolution scenarios based on harvest intensity, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Maximum Intensity (MAX), and No Harvest (MIN), on two historical different managed forests, i.e., conservation and production. The study aims to guide forest owners in decision making with scenario modeling tools, with the objectives of assessing the forest carbon sequestration potential and evaluating the economic feasibility. In the most probable scenario, the BAU scenario, the growing stock increases from 2.6 million m3 to 3.8 million m3 over 50 years, with a more than 40% increase. Comparing the carbon stock change for all tree harvest scenario types indicates that the MIN scenario has the highest carbon sink capacity in the next 50 years; the BAU scenario is a well-balanced option between carbon sink and wood provision and has an optimal EUR 3.7 million in annual revenue. The MAX scenario can boost the growth and increase the annual revenue from wood by 35% but is effective only for a short time and thus has the smallest calculated revenue in time. Achieving a win–win relationship between carbon sequestration and wood supply is imperative, as well as good planning and scenarios to contribute to climate mitigation and also as provisions for local communities and to sustain the local economy.

Long-term and large-scale ecological restoration projects shaped the spatial heterogeneity in new forests

The implementation of long-term ecological restoration projects and policies over the past two decades has played a crucial role in advancing the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 15. However, the resulting dynamics of new forests remain unclear. In this study, we initially examined the distribution and sources of new forests and subsequently investigated the gross primary productivity (GPP) variations within these forested regions. We discovered that new forests are mainly converted from previously cultivated land, which is primarily due to the Grain for Green Project. The new forests are mainly distributed in mid-low altitude areas and gentle slope regions, indicating that accessible areas are prone to damage but also easy to recover. Over approximately two decades of ecological restoration projects, the GPP of new forests has significantly increased trends and the growth rates of new forests vary significantly in different climatic zones. Moreover, the GPP and growth rates of new forests displayed spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the GPP in the new forests was highest in the eastern region, followed by the central south region, while the northwest region had the lowest GPP. Meanwhile, the southwest region shows the highest GPP growth rate among new forests, while the northwest region has the slowest growth rate. Furthermore, the average GPP of new forests is lower than stable forests, but new forests in China grow faster (3.735 vs. 2.587), highlighting their substantial carbon potential. These findings indicate that it's crucial to account for variations in stand and forest change rates when modeling forest carbon sequestration potential.

The role of price incentives in enhancing carbon sequestration in the forestry sector of Hungary

This paper investigates the carbon sequestration potential of forests in Hungary through the introduction of a carbon price incentive, assuming an integrative national climate policy. We have developed a bio-economic mathematical optimisation model to represent the area and species distribution of Hungarian forests and we are optimising harvesting cycles without and with carbon payments. We assess the cost and volume of potentially available carbon removal by forests in the context of the national climate policy. To align our results with other climate policy instruments, we integrate the estimated carbon removal potential of the forests with the marginal carbon abatement cost curve of the energy sector in Hungary. We find that enhanced forest carbon sequestration can be more cost-effective than most other climate policy instruments. We find that forests could intervene at the lower end of the combined cost curve and shift it significantly to the right, resulting in much lower marginal and total costs of achieving the net zero target for Hungary.

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review.

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61-268 Tg C year-1 ), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.

The potential of China’s ecosystems in meeting the carbon neutrality goal: evidence from the forest sector

ABSTRACT Forest carbon sequestration has great potential for climate change mitigation. We show the cost-effectiveness of using forests as Nature-based Solutions pathways that offset carbon dioxide (CO2). Afforestation and reforestation expand forest cover, sustainable forest management increases forest productivity, and substituting carbon-intensive materials with wood products avoids the CO2 emitted in the production processes of these materials. In terms of these activities, we estimate that China’s total forest carbon sequestration potential will reach 2.4 billion tons of CO2 in 2050. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2050 helps China meet its goal of carbon neutrality or net zero emissions.

Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

The estimation of forest carbon sequestration and its economic value as a carbon sink are important elements of global carbon cycle research. In this study, based on the predicted forestland changes under the future shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5, the growth equations of different tree species were fitted using forest inventory data, and the biomass conversion factor continuum function method was used to estimate forest vegetation carbon fixation at the national scale. The carbon sink potential of the forest ecosystems in 2020–2100 was estimated under the three scenarios. Under the three social scenarios, the fixed amount of forest carbon in China exhibits a significant upward trend. Forest area increases the most, and carbon sequestration increases the most rapidly under SSP1-RCP2.6. The carbon sequestration level in Southwest China is higher than in other parts of the country, and those in Northwest and East China are lower than the national average. In order to continuously improve the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystem resources in China, the following actions are recommended: strengthen the protection projects of natural forests in various regions, improve the level of forest management, and gradually achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in China.

Allocation Patterns and Temporal Dynamics of Chinese Fir Biomass in Hunan Province, China

How trees allocate their biomass among different components has important implications for their survival and growth and ecosystem carbon cycling. Data on the distribution pattern and dynamics of tree biomass are essential for fully exploiting forest carbon sequestration potential and achieving the goal of carbon neutralization. However, there has not been enough research to-date on tree biomass spatial allocation and temporal dynamics in different site qualities at specific tree species scales. This study aimed to evaluate the biomass allocation patterns within tree components of Chinese fir and to examine how they are affected by tree age and site quality. A total of 87 trees were destructively sampled and measured for stem, branch, leaf, bark and root biomass. The biomass proportion difference of tree components in different age stages (8-40 years) was analysed, and the influence process of tree age and site quality on biomass allocation was examined. Our results indicate that the biomass allocation varied with tree age and was also affected by site quality. Stem biomass accounted for the largest proportion of total tree biomass, followed by leaf, root, branch and bark biomass in young forests, and it was followed by root, bark, branch and leaf biomass in other age groups. The biomass proportion of each component all nonlinearly changed with tree age. The proportion of stem biomass increased with increasing tree age, and the biomass proportion of branches and leaves decreased with increasing tree age. The proportion of root biomass first increased and then decreased with tree age, while the bark biomass proportion first decreased and then increased with increasing tree age. Site quality had a positive effect on the biomass proportion of stems but a negative effect on the biomass proportion of branches and bark. The interaction of tree age and site quality also had a significant effect on the proportion of stem biomass as well as root biomass. Therefore, to obtain accurate estimates of Chinese fir forest biomass and carbon stocks, age-specific changes and the influence of site conditions on it need to be considered.

Analysis of the Cutting Strategy of Five Different Tree Species Targeting Carbon Sequestration

Fully utilizing the carbon sequestration potential of forests will help to further mitigate the aggravation of the greenhouse effect. In this paper, five typical tree species in Xiaoxing’anling are used as research objects. Based on the differences in the carbon dioxide sequestration capacity of different tree species at different growth cycles, a mathematical model of annual carbon sequestration benefits is established, the optimal annual cutting rates of five tree species are calculated, and the carbon sequestration capacity after ten years and economic benefits of the forest are predicted. The results showed that proper cutting of mature trees can increase annual carbon sequestration by 32% compared to no cutting. In addition, by comparing different forest management strategies, it was found that reasonable harvesting can bring higher economic benefits. We also confirmed that the increase in environmental temperature is one of the factors leading to the decrease in forest carbon sequestration capacity. The results of this paper can provide a theoretical basis for optimal forest management strategies.

Estimation of forest carbon storage and carbon sink potential in Yunnan Province under the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”

Through the accounting of forest carbon reserves and resource value in Yunnan Province, the future forest carbon reserves and carbon sink potential in Yunnan Province are predicted. Using the forest stock expansion method, the forest carbon reserves and their changes in Yunnan Province from 1973 to 2018 are calculated. The GM (1,1) grey prediction model predicts the forest carbon sequestration potential in Yunnan Province. The results show that: (1) the forest carbon storage in Yunnan Province increased from 485.43 million t in 1976 to 937.01 million t in 2018, an increase of 1.9 times, with an average annual growth of 10.50 million t. In 2018, the value of forest carbon reserves was 94062.92 million yuan. (2) The forest carbon sequestration in Yunnan Province varies significantly in different periods. Between 1973-1998 and 1999-2018, the average carbon sequestration was 6.22 million T / A and 16.36 million T / A respectively. (3) The predicted values of forest carbon reserves in 2023, 2028 and 2033 in Yunnan Province are 1001.41 million t, 1103.66 million t and 1216.34 million t respectively, with an average annual increase of carbon sequestration of 17.46 million T / A. According to the research results, the forest area and the carbon storage of forest resources of Yunnan Province is increasing. forest carbon sequestration in Yunnan Province has excellent development potential, and plays a more significant role in forestry carbon sequestration for the realization of the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” goal.

Estimating Carbon Sequestration Potential of Forest and Its Influencing Factors at Fine Spatial-Scales: A Case Study of Lushan City in Southern China.

Accurate prediction of forest carbon sequestration potential requires a comprehensive understanding of tree growth relationships. However, the studies for estimating carbon sequestration potential concerning tree growth relationships at fine spatial-scales have been limited. In this paper, we assessed the current carbon stock and predicted sequestration potential of Lushan City, where a region has rich vegetation types in southern China, by introducing parameters of diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height in the method of coupling biomass expansion factor (BEF) and tree growth equation. The partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to explore the role of combined condition factors (e.g., site, stand, climate) on carbon sequestration potential. The results showed that (1) in 2019, the total carbon stock of trees in Lushan City was 9.22 × 105 t, and the overall spatial distribution exhibited a decreasing tendency from northwest to south-central, and the carbon density increased with elevation; (2) By 2070, the carbon density of forest in Lushan City will reach a relatively stable state, and the carbon stock will continue to rise to 2.15 × 106 t, which is 2.33 times of the current level, indicating that Lushan forest will continue to serve as a carbon sink for the next fifty years; (3) Excluding the effect of tree growth, regional forest carbon sequestration potential was significantly influenced on site characteristics, which achieved the highest Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) value (2.19) for slope direction. Our study provided a better understanding of the relationships between forest growth and carbon sequestration potential at fine spatial-scales. The results regarding the condition factors and how their combination characteristics affect the potential for carbon sequestration could provide crucial insights for Chinese carbon policy and global carbon neutrality goals.

Geospatial Environmental Influence on Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential of Tropical Forest Growth in Hainan Island, China

Tropical forests, although covering only 7% of the world’s land area, have great forest carbon sequestration capacity, accounting for 20% of the world’s forest carbon sink. However, the growth dynamics and forest carbon sink potential of tropical forests remain unclear. Hainan Island is going to be China’s forest carbon trading center. Therefore, accurately assessing the future forest carbon sink potential of Hainan Island’s tropical forest is crucial. In this study, 393 forest permanent sample plots in Hainan Island in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 were selected as the research objects. The dynamic model of tropical forest growth with the geospatial environmental indicators was established based on the measured and most accurate annual diameter at breast height (DBH) growth factors. The DBH growth prediction’s bias ranged from 0.46 to 0.07 cm, RMSE ranged from 1.50 to 5.29 cm, bias% ranged from -2.96 to 0.55%, and RRMSE ranged from 12.18 to 34.30%. In addition, the geospatial environmental indicators of forest growth provide scientific guidance for future ecological protection and land evolution of Hainan Island. Based on DBH–tree height–volume, volume–biomass, and biomass–forest carbon storage relationships, forest carbon sequestration potential could be accurately evaluated by DBH growth. The results show that within the next 30 years, the forest carbon sequestration in Hainan Island will account for 1.8% of the total forest carbon sequestration in China, while the forest area will only account for 0.88% of the total forest area in China. It is roughly estimated that in the next 30 years, the total carbon sink of the tropical forest in Hainan Island will be 83.59 TgC. This study further proves that the annual increase in DBH can accurately assess the forest carbon sink potential of the forest. The forest carbon sink prediction based on the annual increase in DBH can provide data support and theoretical basis for forest carbon sink trading between forest farms and enterprises.

Cold-season freeze frequency is a pervasive driver of subcontinental forest growth

As northern latitudes experience rapid winter warming, there is an urgent need to assess the effect of varying winter conditions on tree growth and forest carbon sequestration potential. We examined tree growth responses to variability in cold-season (November–April) frequency of freeze days (FFD) over 1951 to 2018 using tree-ring data from 35,217 trees and 57 species at 4,375 sites distributed across Canada. We found that annual radial growth responses to FFD varied by species, with some commonalities across genera and clades. The growth of gymnosperms with late spring leaf-out strategies was negatively related to FFD; years with high FFD were most detrimental to the annual growth of Pinus banksiana, Pinus contorta, Larix lyalli, Abies amabilis, and Abies lasiocarpa. In contrast, the growth of angiosperms with early leaf-out strategies, namely, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera, was better in the coldest years, and gymnosperms with intermediate leaf-out timing, such as widespread Picea mariana and Picea glauca, had no consistent relationship to FFD. Tree growth responses to FFD were further modulated by tree size, tree age, regional climate (i.e., mean cold-season temperature), and local site conditions. Overall, our results suggest that moderately warming winters may temporarily improve the growth of widespread pines and some high-elevation conifers in western Canada, whereas warming winters may be detrimental to the growth of widespread boreal angiosperms. Our findings also highlight the value of using species-specific climate-growth relationships to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics.

Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China: Based on meta-analysis method

Assessment of forest carbon sequestration potential and the cost of increasing carbon sequestration in China: Based on meta-analysis method

Estimating Aboveground Carbon Stock at the Scale of Individual Trees in Subtropical Forests Using UAV LiDAR and Hyperspectral Data

Accurate estimation of aboveground carbon stock for individual trees is important for evaluating forest carbon sequestration potential and maintaining ecosystem carbon balance. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data has been widely used to estimate tree-level carbon stock. However, few studies have explored the potential of combining LiDAR and hyperspectral data to estimate tree-level carbon stock. The objective of this study is to explore the potential of integrating unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) LiDAR with hyperspectral data for tree-level aboveground carbon stock estimation. To achieve this goal, we first delineated individual trees by a CHM-based watershed segmentation algorithm. We then extracted structural and spectral features from UAV LiDAR and hyperspectral data respectively. Then, Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to assess the correlation between LiDAR features, hyperspectral features, and tree-level carbon stock, based on which, features were selected for model development. Finally, we developed tree-level carbon stock estimation models based on the Schumacher–Hall formula and stepwise multiple regression. Results showed that both LiDAR and hyperspectral features were strongly correlated to tree-level carbon stock. Both tree height (H, r = 0.75) and Green index (GI, r = 0.83) had the highest correlation coefficients with tree-level carbon stock in LiDAR and hyperspectral features, respectively. The best model using LiDAR features alone includes the metrics of H, the 10th height percentile of points (PH10), and mean height of points (Hmean), and can explain 74% of the variations in tree-level carbon stock. Similarly, the best model using hyperspectral data includes GI and modified normalized differential vegetation index (mNDVI), and has similar explanatory power (r2 = 0.75). The model that integrates predictors, namely, GI and the 95th height percentile of points (PH95) from hyperspectral and LiDAR data, substantially improves the explanatory power (r2 = 0.89). These results indicated that while either LiDAR data or hyperspectral data alone can estimate tree-level carbon stock with reasonable accuracy, combining LiDAR and hyperspectral features can substantially improve the explanatory power of the model. Such results suggested that tree-level carbon stock estimation can greatly benefit from the complementary nature of LiDAR-detected structural characteristics and hyperspectral-captured spectral information of vegetation.

Training a new generation of researchers for effective forest management strategies under the effect of global warming: the ETN Skill-For.Action

Training a new generation of researchers for effective forest management strategies under the effect of global warming: the ETN Skill-For.Action Innovative, adaptive and integrative forest management plays a key role in driving forests to face environmental changes, maintain high forest carbon sequestration potential, and guarantee economic efficiency and more ecologically sound forest operations. The ETN Skill-For.Action integrates the fundamental research in forest ecology and applied science of forest engineering to comprehensibly understand carbon dynamics in forests.

Secondary forests offset less than 10% of deforestation-mediated carbon emissions in the Brazilian Amazon.

Secondary forests are increasing in the Brazilian Amazon and have been cited as an important mechanism for reducing net carbon emissions. However, our understanding of the contribution of secondary forests to the Amazonian carbon balance is incomplete, and it is unclear to what extent emissions from old-growth deforestation have been offset by secondary forest growth. Using MapBiomas 3.1 and recently refined IPCC carbon sequestration estimates, we mapped the age and extent of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon and estimated their role in offsetting old-growth deforestation emissions since 1985. We also assessed whether secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon are growing in conditions favourable for carbon accumulation in relation to a suite of climatic, landscape and local factors. In 2017, the 129,361km2 of secondary forest in the Brazilian Amazon stored 0.33±0.05billionMg of above-ground carbon but had offset just 9.37% of old-growth emissions since 1985. However, we find that the majority of Brazilian secondary forests are situated in contexts that are less favourable for carbon accumulation than the biome average. Our results demonstrate that old-growth forest loss remains the most important factor determining the carbon balance in the Brazilian Amazon. Understanding the implications of these findings will be essential for improving estimates of secondary forest carbon sequestration potential. More accurate quantification of secondary forest carbon stocks will support the production of appropriate management proposals that can efficiently harness the potential of secondary forests as a low-cost, nature-based tool for mitigating climate change.

Forest carbon sequestration and China’s potential: the rise of a nature-based solution for climate change mitigation

ABSTRACT A growing interest has recently been placed on the potential of nature-based solutions to help mitigate climate change, reflecting the importance of natural ecosystems as sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Forests are of the hot debate – that sequester and also emit carbon dioxide (CO2). In this paper, we estimate the forest carbon sequestration potential for China. We show that, as the government plans, by 2020, the size of China’s forest carbon stock will reach 12.87 billion tons, among which 5.73 billion tons will be from afforestation and reforestation (A/R). From the up-to-date data on AR activities (by 2018), we find that only 80% of the target sinks have been met. Scenario analysis shows that the carbon sequestered by the forests in 2020 is equivalent to 13%-17% of the industrial CO2 emission that year, with 6%-8% by A/R, 4%-6% by forest-management, 3%-4% by reduced-deforestation-and-forest-degradation, and 1% by wood-product-sink.