The circular economy (CE) was introduced as a solution to mitigate increasing resource demand and to reduce environmental impacts. However, it remains a challenge to holistically assess long-term environmental impacts of CE strategies in complex, dynamic systems. To tackle this issue, we present the Circular Industrial Transformation System (CITS) model. CITS integrates dynamic stock modelling, material flow analysis and prospective life cycle assessment while being flexibly applicable to different products, materials and industry sectors across temporal and spatial scales. With that, the CITS model can assess the effect of circular strategies on long-term material flows and their respective environmental impacts, while including the effects of socio-economic developments, transformative climate policies, and a changing energy system. As a case study, the environmental impact reduction of both CE and climate change mitigation strategies was assessed for the German passenger car fleet until 2050. The results indicate that the occurring electrification of the passenger fleet is an effective strategy for reducing the global warming impacts of the automotive sector in the long-term, albeit aligned with the renewable energy transformation. CE strategies are most effective in reducing CO2-eq. emissions in the short term. Particularly, CE strategies affecting the vehicle stock promise substantial reductions in CO2-eq. emissions and primary material demand, while improved collection, sorting, and recycling have a limited impact. The results show that the CITS model can guide policies in effectively reducing environmental impacts in complex, dynamic systems by identifying system bottlenecks, trade-offs or synergies in industrial transitions.
Read full abstract