Capita Tobacco Consumption Research Articles

The 1964 US Surgeon General's report on smoking and health.

The 1964 report of the US Surgeon General on smoking and health made an authoritative case that tobacco smoking was a cause of premature deaths from lung cancer and chronic bronchitis. It justified the practice of drawing causal inferences from epidemiological studies, specified influential criteria for doing so, and made use of an early form of meta-analysis.

The lag effect of 24-year tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality in Henan Province, China, 1992 to 2016.

Tobacco exposure is the major risk factor for lung cancer. Previous studies have shown that there is a correlation between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality, but they do not show a specific trend. This study established the polynomial distributed lags (PDLs) model to explore the distributional lag effect between tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality by using the lung cancer mortality rate of residents in Henan Province and the annual per capita tobacco consumption data from 1992 to 2016 and adopted dynamic simulation prediction method to predict lung cancer mortality for the next 20years. We found that per capita tobacco consumption had a 10-year lag effect on lung cancer mortality. The harm of tobacco consumption did not show in the first 4years, but after a lag of 4years or more, the lung cancer mortality in men was higher than that in women, with a peak effect occurring 10years later. The prediction showed that if per capita tobacco consumption was controlled, lung cancer mortality would show a steady decline trend after 10years. These results suggested that tobacco consumption and lung cancer mortality were asynchronous, with a lag effect of tobacco use on the occurrence of lung cancer.

A spatial analysis of the Spanish tobacco consumption distribution: Are there any consumption clusters?

ObjectivesThe objective of this short communication is to provide a previous empirical analysis to locate the regions that have distortions in per capita tobacco consumption. The location of these regions and their proximity to other countries allow us to detect the need that governments have to harmonize policies. Study designThe design of this study is a cross-sectional spatial descriptive analysis. MethodsBy using panel data from the 47 Spanish provinces from 2002 to 2017, we implement the Moran's I test which allows us to detect areas where low or high per capita tobacco consumption clusters are generated. ResultsThe results show that areas of Spain bordering countries with high price differentials, such as Gibraltar and France, generate clusters of low and high per capita tobacco consumption, respectively. Indeed, maintaining a low price differential seems not to generate distortions, as revealed by the Portugal case. ConclusionsSpatial clusters of per capita tobacco consumption are located in regions close to countries where there is high price differential.

Application of a System Dynamics Model to Inform Investment in Smoking Cessation Services in New Zealand

We estimated the long-term effects of smoking cessation interventions to inform government decision-making regarding investment in tobacco control. We extracted data from the 2006 New Zealand Tobacco Use Survey and other sources and developed a system dynamics model with the iThink computer simulation package. The model derived estimates of population cessation rates from smoking behaviors and applied these over a 50-year period, from 2001 to 2051, under business-as-usual and enhanced cessation intervention scenarios. The model predicted larger effects by 2051 with the enhanced cessation than with the business-as-usual scenario, including: an 11% greater decline in adult current smoking prevalence (9 versus 10 per 100 people), 16% greater decline in per capita tobacco consumption (370 versus 440 cigarette equivalents per year), and 11% greater reduction in tobacco-attributable mortality (3000 versus 3300 deaths per year). The model generated reliable estimates of the effects on health and on tobacco use of interventions designed to enhance smoking cessation. These results informed a decision announced in May 2007 to increase funding for smoking cessation by NZ $42 million over 4 years.

Tobacco consumption in New Zealand: why did it fall?

To estimate the relative contributions of trends in smoking prevalence and trends in smoking intensity (average number of cigarettes smoked per day) to the observed decline in per capita tobacco consumption in New Zealand from 1984 to 2004. Tobacco consumption and smoking prevalence time series data were sourced from Statistics New Zealand and the ACNielsen Omnibus Survey respectively and checked for accuracy against other sources. The contribution of changes in smoking prevalence to the observed decline in tobacco consumption was estimated by counterfactual modelling. The corresponding contribution of trends in smoking intensity was then calculated by difference. Changes in smoking prevalence accounted for 48% of the decline in per capita tobacco consumption from 1984-89 and for 39% thereafter. Correspondingly, changes in smoking intensity accounted for 52% of the consumption decline during the first five years of the study period and 61% thereafter (i.e. from 1990 to 2004). Understanding the relative contributions of trends in smoking prevalence and smoking intensity to the observed decline in per capita tobacco consumption is important, because the relationship between smoking intensity and health effects is non-linear. Our results indicate that the dramatic fall in tobacco consumption in New Zealand over the past 30 years will not be accompanied by an equivalent reduction in tobacco-attributable morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, our findings raise doubts as to how much longer tobacco consumption will continue to decline, given that smoking intensity is already low. The key message for the tobacco control program is to re-focus on helping smokers to quit and stay quit.

Tendencias de la mortalidad por cáncer pulmonar en México, 1980-2000

To analyze trends in age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rates in Mexico for the period of 1980 through 2000. The trends were assessed using the adjusted rates of mortality from lung cancer, year of death, year of birth, age at death, state, and standard population. The standardized mortality rate and the index of potential years of life lost were used to compare incidence and premature deaths. The standardized mortality rate was analyzed by age groups according to the age at death (30-74 years), five-year observation period (1980-1999), and birth cohort (1910-1950). Nonparametric Spearman correlations were calculated for per capita tobacco consumption, social marginalization, and emigration. The adjusted mortality rate from lung cancer declined from 7.91 per 100 000 in 1989 to 5.96 per 100 000 in 2000. This pattern correlated with the reduction in per capita tobacco consumption, from 2.145 kg in 1959 to 0.451 kg in 1982. The latent period for the appearance of lung cancer in Mexico was 30 years. The male:female ratio was 2.4:1. The highest adjusted mortality rate was found in men who were 70-74 years old at the time of death. The adjusted mortality rates were low among the cohorts of persons born in 1945 or later, and those rates declined over the 1980-2000 period. The index of potential years of life lost and the incidence of premature death were greater among men. The mortality rates for the cohorts of men born between 1915 and 1940 showed a slight decline over the 1980-2000 period; beginning with men born in 1944 the rates increased slightly, mainly among men 30-34 and 35-39 years old at the time of death. For women the adjusted mortality rates were highest among those 75 or older; the rates gradually declined among the women born between 1945 and 1960, with the largest decrease among women 30-34 years old. The adjusted mortality rates varied according to the five-year observation period, the year of death, and birth cohort and gender. The correlation coefficient for the adjusted mortality rate by state and social marginalization was -0.70 (P = 0.00). There was no statistically significant correlation with the index of emigration (P = 0.56). Mortality from lung cancer has declined in Mexico. Morbidity and premature death due to lung cancer are greater in the states of northern Mexico.

Descriptive Methods for Evaluation of State-Based Intervention Programs

In this article, the authors discuss program evaluation of intervention studies when the outcome of interest is collected routinely at equally spaced intervals of time. They illustrate concepts using data from the American Stop Smoking Intervention Study, where the outcome is state per capita tobacco consumption. States differ widely in mean tobacco consumption, and these differences should be accounted for in the analysis. A large difference in the variance of the intervention effect may be obtained depending on whether the variation in the between-state effects are considered. The confidence limits obtained by ignoring between-state effects are too optimistic in many cases.

Annual per Capita Apparent Consumption of Tobacco Products in the United States: 1900–1990

Background. Analyses of secular trends in tobacco consumption can provide evidence of potential tobacco-disease relationships and have utility in terms of public health projections and policy. The purpose of this project was to provide a unique set of continuous apparent tobacco product consumption estimates for the United States over the period spanning 1900 through 1990.Methods. Two U.S. Department of Agriculture data sources provide information on long-term apparent tobacco consumption in the United States; however, differences exist between these data sets. The consumption estimates in these reports were adjusted to a common population base. A 9-year overlap of the data sets was then used to calibrate one data series to the other using inverse regression. Predicted tobacco consumption estimates for the years 1900 through 1944 were then combined with the adjusted 1945–1990 data.Results. Inverse regression showed a strong linear relationship between the two U.S. Department of Agriculture summaries for each tobacco product during the 9-year overlap period. A continuous set of annual per capita tobacco consumption estimates is reported by product for the United States.Conclusions. The two U.S. Department of Agriculture reports can be combined to provide a history of tobacco product consumption in the United States over the period 1900–1990.

Slowing the march of the Marlboro man

This week the journal reports the 40 year results from the world's longest running study of smoking and death, which finds that in Britain about half of all regular cigarette smokers will eventually be killed by their habit (p 901,1 p 9112). Next week more than 1000 delegates will attend the ninth world conference on tobacco and health in Paris. These provide an opportunity to take stock of the current status of tobacco and health worldwide. The World Bank estimates that the annual tobacco consumption will remain stable between 1990 and 2000 at 1.9 kg per person aged 15 and over.3 That apparent stability masks two divergent trends: falls in tobacco use in the industrialised world and increases in developing regions. Per capita tobacco consumption is expected to fall by 17% during this decade (from 2.4 kg to 2.0 kg a year) among the 35 “established market economies” of the world. At the same time per capita consumption is predicted to rise by 12% (from 1.7 kg to 1.9 kg a year) in the 180 “demographically developing economies.” Increases in con-sumption are also expected in five of the six formerly socialist economies of Europe for which the World Bank made projections.3 Smoking is responsible for three million deaths a year worldwide. If current smoking patterns continue that toll will have risen to 10 million deaths a year by 2025.*RF 4-6* Following trends in consumption, deaths attributable to tobacco will …

The Effect on Tobacco Consumption of Advertising Bans in OECD Countries

Data on annual tobacco consumption per adult, and real price, in 22 out of the 24 OECD countries for the 27 years from 1964 to 1990 are presented in this paper. Four hundred and fourteen of the 594 figures are based on private final consumption expenditure on tobacco in current and constant prices submitted by national governments' statistical offices and published in OECD National Accounts. For countries and years where the OECD has not published this data, sources from each country have been used to complete the data set.By 1990, six out of the 22 countries had implemented a ban on all forms of tobacco advertising. Two simple analyses of the consumption data show no negative effect on consumption. A regression equation explaining consumption in all countries over all years, taking into account price, the changing age profile of each country, long-term trends, and any advertising ban, is reported. This indicates that the average effect on per capita tobacco consumption of advertising bans has been a smal...

An Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Tobacco-Control Legislative Policies in European Community Countries

The purpose of this paper was to assess the effectiveness of anti-tobacco smoking legislation from 1948 onwards in reducing actual per capita tobacco consumption in the twelve countries of the European Economic Community (EEC). In order to undertake these assessments a score was assigned to every legislative measure, indicating the a priori likely impact of this measure on tobacco consumption. Two approaches were then utilized. In the first, it was found that the cumulative anti-tobacco legislative score correlates well in time with a reduction of tobacco consumption. In the second, cross-sectional data from the EEC countries and multiple regression modelling were used to estimate the elasticities of tobacco price, per capita income and cumulative anti-tobacco legislation score; it was found that legislation has an impact on tobacco consumption which, although considerably smaller than the corresponding impact of tobacco price levels, is nominally significant and potentially important. The evaluative approaches utilized in this paper are based on observational data of ecologic nature and can provide only weak evidence about the causal nature of the reported associations. Nevertheless, this limited evidence suggests that legislative measures may be effective both by affecting price levels and through other mechanisms, including health education and the formation of a more general anti-smoking ethos.

Trends in dietary fat and cigarette smoking and the decline in coronary heart disease in New Zealand.

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality declined by approximately 23.5% in New Zealand men aged 35-64 years between 1968 and 1980. The contributions of secular trends in dietary fat and tobacco consumption to this decline were examined using data from national consumption statistics and population based studies of risk factor levels. Per capita saturated fat and dietary cholesterol consumption fell by approximately 12% and 10% respectively during this period while polyunsaturated fat consumption increased by 73%. Per capita tobacco consumption fell by approximately 15%. Using equations developed by Keys and Hegsted it was calculated that the mean serum cholesterol level declined by between 6.6 and 10.3 mg/dl (2.9%-4.4%) during this period. The potential impact of these risk factor changes on CHD mortality was estimated using a Framingham multivariate logistic risk function. Between 38% and 51% of the observed decline in CHD mortality in men aged 35-64 years in New Zealand between 1968 and 1980 could be accounted for by the calculated changes in serum cholesterol and tobacco consumption. If serum cholesterol and cigarette smoking were reduced further to meet current recommendations, it is estimated that CHD mortality would decline by a further 26%-30% from the 1980 level.