Central carbohydrate metabolism of Arabidopsis thaliana is known to play a crucial role during cold acclimation and the acquisition of freezing tolerance. During cold exposure, many carbohydrates accumulate and a new metabolic homeostasis evolves. In the present study, we analyse the diurnal dynamics of carbohydrate homeostasis before and after cold exposure in three natural accessions showing distinct cold acclimation capacity. Diurnal dynamics of soluble carbohydrates were found to be significantly different in cold-sensitive and cold-tolerant accessions. Although experimentally determined maximum turnover rates for sucrose phosphate synthase in cold-acclimated leaves were higher for cold-tolerant accessions, model simulations of diurnal carbohydrate dynamics revealed similar fluxes. This implied a significantly higher capacity for sucrose synthesis in cold-tolerant than cold-sensitive accessions. Based on this implication resulting from mathematical model simulation, a critical temperature for sucrose synthesis was calculated using the Arrhenius equation and experimentally validated in the cold-sensitive accession C24. At the critical temperature suggested by model simulation, an imbalance in photosynthetic carbon fixation ultimately resulting in oxidative stress was observed. It is therefore concluded that metabolic capacities at least in part determine the ability of accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana to cope with changes in environmental conditions.