Capabilities-based Planning Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT OF A HOLISTIC METHODOLOGY FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES BASED ON CAPABILITIES

Based on the results of the study, a scientific and applied problem was formulated, a hypothesis (multifactorial) was advanced, and partial scientific tasks were identified to develop a holistic methodology for strategic planning of the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine based on capabilities.
 The relevance of the study is due to the emergence of new problems in the field of defense and military development, a decrease in the objectivity of strategic decision-making in determining and adjusting the development strategy of the Armed Forces in the long term, and the effectiveness of strategic planning for the development of the Armed Forces as a whole through the introduction of capabilities-based planning methodology in the defense forces.
 The requirements of modern regulatory legal acts of Ukraine regarding the introduction of planning based on the capabilities, functions of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the tasks of the Interdepartmental Working Group on the Defense Review (a temporary subsidiary body of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine) are analyzed.
 The reasons for the emergence of problems in the construction and development of the Armed Forces are investigated, as well as contradictions in the definition and adjustment of the strategy for the development of the capabilities of the Armed Forces for the long term are revealed. The strategic planning of the development of the Armed Forces and defense planning are differentiated according to the goal, results and responsibility between the subjects of planning.
 The scientific and applied problem lies in the need to develop a concept of strategic planning for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine based on the capabilities, a set of special methods, techniques and approaches to determine and adjust the strategy for the development of the capabilities of the Armed Forces in the long term. A research hypothesis (multifactorial) about the conditions for achieving the effectiveness of strategic planning for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the basis of capabilities is put forward and partial scientific tasks are identified, which will be devoted to further research.

América Latina y el desafío de la planificación basada en capacidades. Aportes preliminares desde la experiencia de Chile


 
 
 
 Las transformaciones en el contexto estratégico, caracterizadas por la emergencia de amenazas no tradicionales, la interdependencia y la incertidumbre, han propiciado el cambio en los modelos de planificación de la defensa. Varios países, principalmente pertenecientes a OTAN han transitado desde el modelo tradicional de planificación basado en amenazas hacia el nuevo modelo de planificación basado en capacidades. En el caso de América Latina, solo unos cuantos países han iniciado este tránsito, que además de responder a las transformaciones en el contexto estratégico, implica numerosos requerimientos y desafíos para su puesta en funcionamiento.
 Considerando las distintas realidades que enfrentan los países latinoamericanos, ¿están estos preparados para enfrentar los desafíos que considera la planificación basada en capacidades? A partir del caso de Chile, que ha iniciado el proceso de tránsito hacia la planificación por capacidades, se sostiene que su implementación requiere de condiciones organizacionales y presupuestarias para una efectiva operacionalización, así como una mayor coordinación entre los diversos organismos del Estado. Además, se requiere de un sistema de asignación presupuestaria en coordinación y coherencia con los objetivos y estrategias definidas en la planificación, con el fin de asegurar el uso eficiente de los recursos asignados.
 
 
 

The capability concept – On how to define and describe capability in relation to risk, vulnerability and resilience

Capabilities-based planning and capability assessment are high on the agendas of several countries and organisations as part of their risk management and emergency preparedness. Despite this, few definitions of capability exist, and they are not easily related to concepts such as risk, vulnerability and resilience. The aim of the present study was thus to broaden the scientific basis of the risk field to also include the concept of capability. The proposed definition is based on a recently developed risk framework, and we define capability as the uncertainty about and the severity of the consequences of an activity given the occurrence of the initiating event and the performed task. We provide examples of how the response capability for a fictive scenario can be described using this definition, and illustrate how our definition can be used to analyse capability assessments prepared according to the Swedish crisis management system. We have analysed the content of 25 capability assessments produced in 2011 by stakeholders on local, regional and national level. It was concluded that none addressed uncertainty to any appreciable extent, and only a third described capability in terms of consequences and task, making it difficult to relate these capability assessments to risk assessments.

Collaborative foresight: Complementing long-horizon strategic planning

An action case study demonstrates an effective integration of collaborative planning using long-range foresight in a hierarchical government research organization. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of collaborative, bottom-up strategic planning as a complement to top-down strategizing. Large research institutions plan investment over long time horizons and must cope with significant uncertainty, complexity, and mandate changes. Collaborative foresight enhances organizational resilience by improving ideation, problem definition, and consensus in long-horizon strategies. It increases the variety of perspectives in scenario creation, resulting in improved strategic options. Structured Dialogic Design (SDD) was employed as a complementary strategic planning method to the mandated Capabilities-Based Planning (CBP) process. The two methods were conducted in parallel sessions with different organizational participants, strictly limiting information sharing between teams. Participants using SDD to plan efficiently produced a detailed structure representing long-horizon strategic challenges and solution ideas. This collaborative foresight approach demonstrated strong consensus for organizational priorities defined in scenarios and investment pathways. The SDD method demonstrated that transactive and generative planning integrated with traditional rational planning and surpassed it by incorporating deep tacit knowledge from diverse participants. It also fostered organizational cohesion through facilitated collaboration in the planning sessions.

Measuring healthcare preparedness: an all-hazards approach

In a paper appearing in this issue, Adini, et al. describe a struggle familiar to many emergency planners—the challenge of planning for all scenarios. The authors contend that all-hazards, or capabilities-based planning, in which a set of core capabilities applicable to numerous types of events is developed, is a more efficient way to achieve general health care system emergency preparedness than scenario-based planning. Essentially, the core of what is necessary to plan for and respond to one kind of disaster (e.g. a biologic event) is also necessary for planning and responding to other types of disasters, allowing for improvements in planning and maximizing efficiencies. While Adini, et al. have advanced the science of health care emergency preparedness through their consideration of 490 measures to assess preparedness, a shorter set of validated preparedness measures would support the dual goals of accountability and improved outcomes and could provide the basis for determining which actions in the name of preparedness really matter.

Updating the National Planning Scenarios: Using Wicked Problems and Capability-Based Planning Concepts for Homeland Security

This research studies the National Planning Scenarios (NPS) as a set of tools to support federal, state, and local homeland security preparedness. The study examines how the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) can ensure that the NPS remain a relevant and flexible preparedness tool for federal, state, and local partners. The research suggests that the problem of developing a robust set of credible scenarios for homeland security planning may be an example of a planning dilemma known as a wicked problem. Such problems defy conventional, linear, analytic solutions. Horst Rittel and Melvin M. Webber described solving wicked problems in the 1970s as “…not objective and cannot be derived from following a formula … judgments are likely to vary widely and depend on the stakeholder’s independent values and goals.” The 15 NPS were created in 2003, in the wake of the attacks of September 11, 2001. The newly established DHS used the capabilities-based planning (CBP) concept on the NPS to provide an array of response challenges for federal, state, and local governments at all levels. CBP—effectively used by the Department of Defense (DoD) —is defined as planning, under uncertainty, that aims to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of future challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework. This research uses the wicked problem and CBP concepts to develop an updated set of scenarios that are a relevant and flexible tool for preparing for current and future situations. Combining lessons learned from those concepts, the authors recommend an iterative, flexible process to update the NPS and make them adaptable to the differing needs of federal, state, and local governments.

Wpływ paradygmatu realistycznego oraz ideologii neokonserwatywnej na politykę nuklearną USA po zakończeniu zimnej wojny

The article describes the role of two major idea sets in U.S. nuclear policy-making after the end of the Cold War. The analysis discusses briefly key points of the ongoing debate in international relations. According to realists, accumulation of military power is the only rational choice for states given the anarchic nature of international system. Since Russia and her arsenal are still viewed as an existential threat to America, Cold War conception of strategic stability must be maintained. U.S. nuclear forces are perceived as an insurance against reemerging of hostile relations with Moscow. Preoccupation with the Russian threat is also the feature of neoconservative movement that shaped American policy since 2001. Apart from deterring Russia, this idea considers it necessary to prepare American arsenal to challenge regional adversaries, especially the so-called rogue states. This leads to transformation of U.S. nuclear policy towards capabilities-based planning emphasizing new missions for nuclear weapons and their overall greater importance.

Adaptation and Application of Federal Capabilities-Based Planning Models to Individual States: State of Colorado Case Study

This article utilizes the State of Colorado as a case study in how individual states are adapting and applying federal capabilities-based planning models to their homeland security programs. The article reviews the corrective change in direction taken by Colorado in implementation of homeland security organizational strategies, structures, policies and procedures. The authors' findings lead to conclusions about Colorado's beginning phase of transforming deficient homeland security strategy, incoherent organization, and fragmented planning processes into sound strategy, focused structure, and organized methods. In November 2008, the Center for Homeland Security (CHS) at the University of Colorado at Colorado Springs began a research and mutual support effort with the Colorado Governor's Office of Homeland Security for the purpose of immersing in the state's revitalized homeland security planning cycle. The intent was to gain insight into the state's creation of a new homeland security organization, the application of a new homeland security strategy, and the efficacy of implementing federal capabilities-based planning processes from a strategic and operational perspective, rather than a federal grant application focus. Colorado's shift to a capabilities-based planning process was largely in response to criticism from both the Department of Homeland Security and Colorado state auditors on the use of federal homeland security funds. Audits described the state's strategy as disorganized and its homeland security structure as fractured with poor accountability and little meaningful oversight. This article examines the initial findings of the CHS immersion experience.

Capabilities-based Planning for Security Sector Transformation

Advanced approaches towards defense management, and the process of the ongoing force transformation in particular, rely to a great extent on CapabilitiesBased Planning (CBP) to provide for robust response to a broad spectrum of threats and challenges. Our assumption is that CBP has considerable potential to enhance initiatives for security sector transformation. This paper outlines a planning framework, based on centralized planning and agency-based development of security sector capabilities. It links objectives, security ambitions, planning scenarios, tasks, required and affordable capabilities, and planning risks. The distribution of capabilities among security sector organizations accounts for their traditions, experience, and current roles, but focuses on cost effectiveness. The development of capabilities is subject to regular monitoring, assessment of gaps and risks, and coordinated decision making on corrective measures. Then, the paper presents possible levels of integration of the security sector. The conclusion is that coordinated capability development, with capabilities-based planning as its central feature, should be seen as the core process in security sector transformation.

Transparency in Force Modernization Decisions

Transparency, as defined for this paper, is the continual process of openness, accountability, and governance, plays a vital role in force modernization decisions. It is essential in capabilities-based planning (CBP), and because of rising acquisition costs, transformation has become the overall vision for military strategy. Transformation is implemented by capabilities-based planning resulting in force modernization decisions. Without a well defined, repeatable, and transparent evaluation process, national vulnerabilities and required capabilities might be incorrectly identified, resulting in wrong solutions. Force modernization decisions based upon transparency can provide the basis for a highly effective, low cost solution. The solution does not have to be a technical solution, but can be a change in Doctrine; Organization; Training; Leadership development; Materiel; Personnel; or Facilities (DOTLMPF). By including transparency for identifying requirements, we can ensure that the requirement answers the how, what, why, when, and who so that a credible decision can be made. Force modernization decisions using capabilities based planning and value tools that help structure and evaluate requirements have been used very effectively. A simple, top-down approach of Strategy to Need is used to initiate the evaluation. Force modernization decisions should be made using processes, methodologies, and supporting tools which allow for fully transparent assessments for the decision-maker. In other words, assessments should be traceable and accountable. Processes should be clear, methodologies should be simple, and the tools should be easy to use and understand. Several countries have successfully used this process for evaluating alternatives against a set of requirements. These assessments have included upgrading fleets, restructuring organizations, and acquiring new equipment.

A Formula for Disaster: The Department of Homeland Security's Virtual Ontology

This paper focuses on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in order to theorise the spatialities of post-9/11 security knowledge and practice in the US. It analyses the organisational discourses that animate homeland security work, such as preparedness, vulnerability, the new threat environment, risk analysis and capabilities-based planning, and considers the implications of these practices for contemporary geographies of security. It is argued that DHS operates through a virtual ontology of threat, whereby potential, future threats are addressed as present possibilities that emerge in the spaces of everyday life. The sources of American freedoms and insecurities, the everyday, emerging circulations of goods and people, present DHS with a terrain of shifting threats from which both emergencies and preparedness may materialise. Disaster looming, the potential suspension of everyday life forms the basis for security practice as the emergency becomes a fact of life itself. The spatialities of this environment of imminent threat are considered and it is argued that the everyday emergency operates topologically as a continuous process of spatialisation.

Capabilities-based planning: A framework for local planning success?

In September 2007, the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) published the National Preparedness Guidelines which advocate a capabilitiesbased planning (CBP) approach to preparedness for state, local, and tribal governments. This article provides an overview of capabilities-based planning and a more specific focus on the aims, objectives, and components of the DHS CBP model. The article also summarizes what scholars have previously suggested are fundamental elements for successful emergency and disaster planning focusing specifically on Quarantelli’s 10 research-based principles. The article evaluates the effectiveness of the DHS CBP model in helping local governments incorporate these fundamental elements into their planning efforts and concludes with an overall assessment of the DHS CBP model as a framework for local planning success.

Pandemic Influenza: When Mother Nature Calls, Will We be Prepared to Answer?

Pandemic outbreaks of human influenza are a reality of nature and have occurred periodically throughout history. Since we know the next outbreak is an eventuality, developed nations have ample opportunity to prepare. The H5N1 virus currently infecting birds in several parts of the world should prompt healthcare leaders to develop effective, integrated plans for responding to a pandemic. The iterative cycle of preparedness outlines five key steps: (1) capabilities-based planning, (2) equipping, (3) training and educating, (4) exercising and evaluating and (5) identifying and incorporating lessons learned. This paper focuses on the strategic aspects of effective pandemic preparedness and the cyclical architecture that links them. It also describes concrete steps healthcare leaders can take not only to prepare their organizations for a pandemic, but also to participate in broader planning activities to ensure that preparedness is a community investment.

The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies

The 2001 US Nuclear Posture Review called for reducing operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads by almost two-thirds over the decade ending in 2012; emphasizing the development and/or improvement of capabilities other than nuclear forces, including missile defences, non-nuclear strike forces, and a responsive infrastructure; and placing nuclear and other capabilities within the framework of new concepts such as dissuasion and capabilities-based planning. The reductions foreseen in the NPR furnished the basis for the May 2002 Moscow Treaty. Allied observers have welcomed this treaty as a political substitute for the ABM Treaty and START negotiations, but have found it disappointing as an arms control measure. While allied observers have expressed reservations about combining nuclear and non-nuclear strike forces in a single notional leg of the ‘New Triad’ and about increasing readiness for possible nuclear testing, they have endorsed unprecedented steps in the defensive area, notably with respect to ballistic missile defence. Some new US concepts have been relatively uncontroversial because they represent continuity, but others (such as dissuasion and deterrence by denial) have evoked scepticism.

Capabilities-Based Defense Planning: The Australian Experience

Obliged by regional political and security developments, Australia has been forced to experiment with a capabilities-based defense planning for over 20 years. The ultimate success of the planning methodology is validated by the fact that the Australian Defence Force is now capable of executing a larger number of nationally determined tasks than was possible in the past. Australian experience demonstrates that greater jointness can be developed, but only after significant changes have been made to the force development bureaucracy. While perhaps not all of the Australian experience is relevant to every country, it does provide a successful model of a capabilities-based defense planning and force development model, which emphasizes the maximum use of jointness capabilities.