Canterbury Region Research Articles

Negotiating social licence to farm at agricultural and pastoral shows in Canterbury, New Zealand

AbstractAgricultural and pastoral (A&P) shows have a long history in New Zealand, dating back to the early settler‐colonial period. We approach A&P shows as places where non‐farming publics can experience agricultural activities, which can help to build the trusted relationships needed for a social licence to farm. Drawing on participant observation at five A&P shows across the Canterbury region, we highlight what is visible and invisible in the image of farming life performed through A&P show activities. In doing so, we identify tensions that threaten their future, and opportunities for dialogue that could enhance social licence to farm.

Updated method of estimating heat load for grazing dairy cattle

ABSTRACT Understanding heat stress in dairy cows is important for ensuring their welfare and productivity. While the Temperature Humidity Index is commonly used to determine heat stress conditions it does not consider outdoor factors (e.g. wind speed and solar radiation). To address this, the Grazing Heat Load Index (GHLI) which predicts respiration rate, an indicator of heat stress, was previously developed using data from the Waikato region in New Zealand. This study updated the GHLI using a weather data and animal heat stress indicators (e.g. respiration rate and drooling), collected from dairy herds in the Northland, Waikato, Canterbury, and Southland regions. A mixed-effects linear model, which included air temperature, solar radiation and wind speed as inputs was developed using data from these diverse locations. The updated model slightly outperformed the previous model on a validation dataset when predicting respiration rate. While air temperature remained the primary driver of respiration rate, solar radiation was an exacerbating factor, whereas wind exerted a mitigating effect. Challenges persist in characterising heat stress in conditions such as high wind speed. Non-linear modelling techniques could enhance the predictive capability of the GHLI model, thereby refining heat stress assessment in pasture-based dairy systems nationwide.

Estimating S-wave amplitude for earthquake early warning in New Zealand: Leveraging the first 3 seconds of P-Wave

This study addresses the critical question of predicting the amplitude of S-waves during earthquakes in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), a highly earthquake-prone region, for implementing an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). This research uses ground motion parameters from a comprehensive dataset comprising historical earthquakes in the Canterbury region of NZ. It explores the potential to estimate the damaging S-wave amplitude before it arrives, primarily focusing on the initial P-wave signals. The study establishes nine linear regression relationships between P-wave and S-wave amplitudes, employing three parameters: peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and peak ground displacement. Each relationship’s performance is evaluated through correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), and 5-fold Cross-validation RMSE, aiming to identify the most predictive empirical model for the Canterbury context. Results using a weighted scoring approach indicate that the relationship involving P-wave Peak Ground Velocity (Pv) within a 3-second window strongly correlates with S-wave Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), highlighting its potential for EEWS. The selected empirical relationship is subsequently applied to establish a P-wave amplitude (Pv) threshold for the Canterbury region as a case study from which an EEWS could benefit. The study also suggests future research exploring complex machine learning models for predicting S-wave amplitude and expanding the analysis with more datasets from different regions of NZ.

Spatial Distribution of Earthquake Occurrence for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022

ABSTRACT We develop candidate hybrid models representing the spatial distribution of earthquake occurrence in New Zealand over the next 100 yr. These models are used within the onshore/near-shore, shallow component of the distributed seismicity model within the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022. They combine a variety of spatially gridded covariates based on smoothed seismicity, strain rates, and proximity to mapped faults and plate boundaries in both multiplicative and additive hybrids. They were optimized against a standardized catalog of New Zealand earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.95 and hypocentral depth ≤40 km from 1951 to 2020. We extract smoothed seismicity covariates using three different methods. The additive models are linear combinations of earthquake likelihood models derived from individual covariates. We choose three preferred hybrid models based on the information gain statistics, consideration of the ongoing Canterbury sequence and regions of low seismicity, and inclusion of the most informative covariates. Since the hazard model is designed for the next 100 yr, the preferred hybrid models are also combined with 20-year earthquake forecasts from the “Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale” model. Thus, in total, six hybrid spatial distribution candidates are advanced for sensitivity analyses and expert elicitation for inclusion in the final logic tree for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model.

The impact of the Christchurch earthquakes (2010–2011) on labour productivity in the Canterbury region in New Zealand

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of the earthquake sequence in 2010–2012 on labour productivity in New Zealand's Canterbury region, utilising a dynamic Difference-in-Differences approach and a comprehensive administrative dataset of all firms operating in New Zealand. We find a statistically significant and large positive effect on labour productivity in Christchurch City, particularly in the construction sector. This led to an observable increase in overall regional labour productivity in the Canterbury region in 2013, 2015, and 2016. In Christchurch City itself (the area most heavily impacted by the earthquakes), the positive effect lasts until 2018 and possibly later (though it is no longer statistically observable). The re-construction of the region will not continue forever, so the implications of this winding down in re-construction for labour productivity and income are potentially a matter of present and future concern.

Filipino migrant worker organisations, social capital and disaster resilience: An Aotearoa-New Zealand case study

There is increasing evidence that access to social capital, and particularly linking capital can significantly enhance the resilience of minoritised and vulnerable communities impacted by disasters. Understanding levels and types of access to social capital within such communities before disasters occur is an important part of disaster risk management policy and planning. Migrant worker communities, however, remain an understudied group in general, and there are very few published findings concerned with the 3.5 million Filipino migrant workers who primarily live in high-income host countries. This article contributes to addressing this gap with an Aotearoa-New Zealand qualitative case study that aims to increase understanding of the social capital accessed pre-disaster by members of Filipino migrant worker organisations in the Canterbury region. Interview and focus group data indicated that worker organisations facilitated access to local Filipino migrant worker networks, contributing to consistently high reliance on bonding capital, but less access to bridging or linking capital. This trend is linked to the precarious immigration status afforded by temporary work visas, which increased the vulnerability of participants. Only one organisation provided access to the linking capital required to mitigate this vulnerability. Factors influencing the capacity of organisations to develop linking capital appeared to include establishment objectives, length of time since establishment and support from government and industry groups. These findings emphasize the valuable role that migrant worker organisations can play in mitigating disaster risks, through providing connections that facilitate support and resourcing from authorities and industry bodies.

Navigating the Science-Collaboration Interface for Watershed Management in Aotearoa, New Zealand

Collaborative partnerships around the world address environmental challenges from a local perspective. At the same time, many of these efforts are based on scientific information. Local and scientific information are not always compatible, and numerous challenges arise at the science-policy interface in collaboration. This study identifies key factors affecting the science-policy interface, including credibility, salience, legitimacy, and communication, as well as two-way interactions and compatibility with local knowledge that are important in collaborative governance. The importance of these factors is illustrated in a case of collaborative watershed management in the Canterbury Region of Aotearoa New Zealand. The case tells the story of local community members’ contestation of science used by the government to determine the health risks of recreational swimming and the role of collaboration in bridging experiential and scientific knowledge. Evidence from meeting observations, documents, and interviews indicates points of contention and how the collaborative forum successfully served as a boundary spanner to navigate the science-policy interface.

A review of New Zealand Eomysticetidae (Mammalia, Cetacea) and implications for the evolution of baleen whales: new specimens, functional anatomy, and phylogeny

ABSTRACT Eomysticetidae are a clade of early diverging functionally toothless, longirostrine and likely baleen-bearing stem mysticete whales. Eomysticetid fossils are rare but known worldwide from Oligocene strata. The richest assemblage of eomysticetids has been uncovered in New Zealand from the Kokoamu Greensand and Otekaike Limestone (North Otago and South Canterbury regions, South Island). This includes some of the largest known eomysticetids, Tokarahia kauaeroa and Tokarahia lophocephalus, some older and more archaic forms such as Matapanui waihao, the fragmentary Tohoraata raekohao and Tohoraata waitakiensis, and the well-known Waharoa ruwhenua represented by several well-preserved skulls and mandibles of adults and juveniles. Studies of these New Zealand fossils strongly indicates monophyly of Eomysticetidae and suggest possible skim feeding behaviour, possession of non-functional teeth and baleen, extreme rostral lengthening during growth and peramorphic evolution, rostral kinesis, use of Zealandia as a calving ground, and probable extinction at or near the Oligo-Miocene boundary.

Retinopathy in Greyhound dogs: Prevalence, fundoscopic, and histopathological findings.

To determine the prevalence of retinal lesions and describe the fundoscopic findings of retinopathy in Greyhound dogs in the Manawatu/Whanganui region of New Zealand. To examine possible associations between sex, age, and racing variables with retinopathy in the study population. To describe retinal histologic findings in seven Greyhounds with retinopathy in New Zealand. Two hundred Greyhound dogs from the Manawatu/Whanganui region of New Zealand underwent fundoscopy and fundic photography to identify and score the degree of retinopathy. Associations between retinopathy and age, sex, as well as racing variables, were examined. Histologic examination of the retina was undertaken on the eyes of seven Greyhounds from the Manawatu and Canterbury regions previously diagnosed with retinopathy by fundoscopy. Fifty dogs (25.1%) were identified with retinopathy of varying degrees of severity. In at least one eye, 7.5% of dogs had mild retinopathy, 11.6% moderate retinopathy, and 6.0% severe retinopathy. Males were more likely to be affected in both eyes and with moderate or severe grades, than females. Increasing age was not associated with increased prevalence of retinopathy, nor increased grade of severity. Retinal histology identified multifocal retinal detachment in 5 of the 7 cases examined and other common lesions included choroidal necrosis and outer to full-thickness retinal atrophy in the absence of significant inflammation. Retinopathy is prevalent in Greyhounds in the Manawatu/Whanganui region of New Zealand, but more research is required to elucidate the etiopathogenesis. Consideration should be made to include mandatory eye health examination in racing Greyhound dogs.

Interpreting the ‘rural mural’ phenomenon: Creative place-making in rural towns in South and Mid Canterbury, Aotearoa New Zealand

Consistent with discussions about public art and creative place-making in processes of rural settlement regeneration, this paper reports an enquiry into the recent appearance of large outdoor murals in several rural towns in the South and Mid Canterbury regions of Te Waipounamu the South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand. The enquiry is part of a larger study of rural settlement regeneration in which a variety of social, cultural, environmental, and economic revitalisation initiatives designed by local people are being interpreted. With that focus, our purpose in this paper is to describe and interpret the form and content of the murals under study and the ways they are used to distinguish places and their residents. Reflecting on the existing literature, which emphasises public art as a marker of place identity that is influenced by processes of commodification, we interpret the rural mural phenomenon as a key interlinked cultural and economic element in rural regeneration. Adding a policy dimension, we also examine the possibility of linking murals into wider networks of public art across Te Waipounamu the South Island.

Phenological phase affects carrot seed production sensitivity to climate change – A panel data analysis

New Zealand is a major producer of carrot seeds globally. Carrots are an important nutritional crop for human consumption. Since the growth and development of carrot seed crops mainly depend on climatic factors, seed yield is extremely susceptible to climate change. This modeling study was undertaken using a panel data approach to determine the impact of the atmospheric conditions (proxied by maximum and minimum temperature) and precipitation during the critical growth stages for seed production in carrot, viz., juvenile phase, vernalization phase, floral development phase, and flowering and seed development phase on carrot seed yield. The panel dataset was created using cross-sections from 28 locations within the Canterbury and Hawke's Bay regions of New Zealand that cultivate carrot seed crops and time series from 2005 to 2022. Pre-diagnostic tests were performed to test the model assumptions, and a fixed effect model was selected subsequently. There was significant (p < 0.01) variability in temperature and rainfall throughout different growing phases, except for precipitation at the vernalization phase. The highest rate of changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation were recorded during the vernalization phase (+0.254 °C per year), floral development phase (+0.18 °C per year), and juvenile phase (−6.508 mm per year), respectively. Based on marginal effect analysis, the highest significant influence of minimum (187.724 kg/ha of seed yield decrease for each 1 °C increment) and maximum temperature (1 °C rise increases seed yield by 132.728 kg/ha), and precipitation (1 mm increment of rainfall decreases the seed yield by 1.745 kg/ha) on carrot seed yield were reported at vernalization, and flowering and seed development, respectively. The minimum and maximum temperatures have a higher marginal effect on carrot seed production. Analysis of the panel data demonstrates that the production of carrot seeds will be vulnerable to climatic change.

Optimization of identifying insulinaemic pharmacokinetic parameters using artificial neural network

Background and ObjectiveThe identification of insulinaemic pharmacokinetic parameters using the least-squares criterion approach is easily influenced by outlying data due to its sensitivity. Furthermore, the least-squares criterion has a tendency to overfit and produce incorrect results. Hence, this research proposes an alternative approach using the artificial neural network (ANN) with two hidden layers to optimize the identifying of insulinaemic pharmacokinetic parameters. The ANN is selected for its ability to avoid overfitting parameters and its faster speed in processing data. Methods18 voluntarily participants were recruited from the Canterbury and Otago region of New Zealand to take part in a Dynamic Insulin Sensitivity and Secretion Test (DISST) clinical trial. A total of 46 DISST data were collected. However, due to ambiguous and inconsistency, 4 data had to be removed. Analysis was done using MATLAB 2020a. Results and DiscussionResults show that, with 42 gathered dataset, the ANN generates higher gains, ∅P = 20.73 [12.21, 28.57] mU·L·mmol−1·min−1 and ∅D = 60.42 [26.85, 131.38] mU·L·mmol−1 as compared to the linear least square method, ∅P = 19.67 [11.81, 28.02] mU·L·mmol−1 ·min−1 and ∅D = 46.21 [7.25, 116.71] mU·L·mmol−1. The average value of the insulin sensitivity (SI) of ANN is lower with, SI = 16 × 10−4 L·mU−1 ·min−1 than the linear least square, SI = 17 × 10−4 L·mU−1 ·min−1. ConclusionAlthough the ANN analysis provided a lower SI value, the results were more dependable than the linear least square model because the ANN approach yielded a better model fitting accuracy than the linear least square method with a lower residual error of less than 5%. With the implementation of this ANN architecture, it shows that ANN able to produce minimal error during optimization process particularly when dealing with outlying data. The findings may provide extra information to clinicians, allowing them to gain a better knowledge of the heterogenous aetiology of diabetes and therapeutic intervention options.

Trace Element Uptake by Willows Used for the Phytoremediation of Biosolids.

The land application of biosolids can result in the unacceptable accumulation of Trace Elements (TEs) in agricultural soil and potentially introduce xenobiotics and pathogens into the food chain. Phytoremediation of biosolids aims to minimize this risk, while producing valuable biomass. Willows, well known to accumulate zinc (Zn), are used extensively in farming systems for soil conservation, shelter and as feed supplements with demonstrable health benefits. Potentially, biosolids phytoremediation could occur on marginal lands adjacent to farmlands where willows are grown for supplementary fodder. We aimed to determine the uptake and distribution of Zn and other TEs in willows grown on soils amended with biosolids and biosolids blended with biochar, with a view to their use as stock fodder. In the Canterbury Region, New Zealand, we grew Salix 'tangaio' (S. matsudana X S. alba) in a greenhouse trial and field study. The biomass production of the willows was unaffected by biosolids and increased by the biosolids+biochar mixture. The addition of 4% biosolids (w/w) to the soil resulted in a foliar Zn concentration of 600-1000 mg kg-1, some 25 times higher than the average New Zealand pasture. Zinc concentrations were highest in the bottom leaves and increased throughout the season. Biosolids addition doubled the copper (Cu) concentration to 10 mg kg-1. Adding biochar to the system reduced the plant uptake of Cu and to a lesser extent Zn, while cadmium (Cd) uptake was unaffected. For Cd, Cu, and Zn, plant uptake was a function of the Ca(NO3)2-extractable concentration, both in greenhouse experiments and the field trial. Future work should determine the changes in plant TE uptake over several growing seasons.

Primary care experiences in the 'Let's test for HPV' study: a qualitative analysis.

Introduction The National Cervical Screening Programme (NCSP) will switch from cervical cytology to Human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing as the primary cervical screening modality in 2023. To prepare for rollout an implementation study of HPV testing in primary care commenced in August 2022 in three different geographic regions in NZ. Aims This study explores Primary Care Staff's experience of using the HPV testing pathway in the 'Let's test for HPV' study so that recommendations can be made to improve the testing process before nationwide roll-out. Method Thirty-nine primary care staff were interviewed across all 17 practices in the Capital and Coast, Canterbury and Whanganui region participating in the 'Let's Test For HPV' study. In total 19 interviews took place which followed a semi-structured approach. These interviews were recorded and transcribed. Template analysis was carried out on transcripts to aid in identifying themes. Results Three key themes, with additional subthemes, were identified. Staff were strongly supportive of the new testing regime. Interviewees identified some issues with the new pathway. Educational needs for both patients and clinicians were identified. Conclusion Primary care staff described the experience of using the HPV testing pathway positively; however, there were requests for ongoing additional support and nationwide rollout to be supported by practitioner and patient education programmes. With the right support this new pathway for cervical cancer screening has the potential to improve access for previously underserved and unserved groups.

Science and policy delay leading to loss of natural capital: case study of Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere

ABSTRACT The paper analyses sources of delay in developing environmental interventions to address overallocation of groundwater and water quality degradation for Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere, a coastal lake in the Canterbury Region of New Zealand. The analysis highlighted the length of time required to collect the science to understand an issue and to formulate and implement policy responses. It also identified delays due to scientific uncertainty, scientific controversies, disregarding science, decision processes, and the response time of the natural system. The absence of clear policy approaches and environmental outcomes in order to implement environmental legislation was a significant source of delay. Delays in implementing environmental interventions led to loss of natural capital with groundwater overallocation reducing flows in groundwater-fed streams and freshwater inflows to the lake, and land use intensification degrading groundwater, groundwater-fed streams, and lake water quality. The extent of development beyond sustainable limits during these delays may have permanently compromised the ability to implement comprehensive environmental interventions.

Surficial liquefaction manifestation severity thresholds for profiles having high fines-content, high-plasticity soils

The severity of surficial liquefaction manifestation was significantly over-predicted for a large subset of case histories from relatively recent earthquakes that impacted the Canterbury region of New Zealand. Such over-predicts generally occurred for profiles having predominantly high fines-content (FC), high-plasticity soil strata. Herein, the liquefaction case histories from the Canterbury earthquakes are used to investigate the performances of three different manifestation severity index (MSI) models. The prevalence of high FC, high-plasticity strata in a profile is quantified through the soil behavior type index averaged over the upper 10 m of a profile ( Ic10). It is shown that for each MSI model (1) the threshold MSI value distinguishing cases with and without manifestation increases as Ic10 increases and (2) the ability of the MSI to segregate cases with and without manifestation decreases with increasing Ic10. Additionally, probabilistic models are proposed for evaluating the severity of surficial liquefaction manifestation as a function of MSI and Ic10. The approaches presented in this study allow better interpretations of predictions made by existing MSI models, although their efficacy decreases at sites with high Ic10. An improved MSI model is ultimately needed that better accounts for the effects of high-FC, high-plasticity soils more directly.

Water distribution in community irrigation using a multi-agent system

ABSTRACT Insufficient water for irrigation is a common problem in the Canterbury Region of New Zealand. Farmers have the option of applying for resource consent or joining a community irrigation scheme to take water. Water supply becomes more problematic during drought seasons as farmers must adhere to water restrictions imposed by the water authority. To deal with this problem, we developed an agent-based irrigation management system that can be used by farmers to calculate the ideal crop water needs on individual farms, which is particularly useful during periods of water scarcity. During water scarcity, most farms will have shortages of water. However, it is possible that there are farmers who will have excess water that could be distributed to those who need it. By doing this, farmers with excess water can make more profit and those who do not have enough water can purchase water to reduce their losses. In this work, we explore how auction-based negotiation in a multi-agent setting can be used to maximise water sharing within a community during periods of water scarcity. We evaluate various auction mechanisms that can be used to distribute excess water. In addition, we investigate the effect of various different agents' behaviours on water distribution and community profit.

Is Gen Z really that different? Environmental attitudes, travel behaviours and sustainability practices of international tourists to Canterbury, New Zealand

Age has a significant influence on environmental attitudes and behaviour but there is no consensus on the effect that generational cohort has on these attitudes and behaviour. Using the New Environmental Paradigm (NEP) as the theoretical lens, this study evaluates whether Gen Z is similar or different to three other generations (Gen X, Y and Baby Boomers) on their environmental attitudes toward travel. The sustainability practices that these generational cohorts undertake during their travel are also evaluated. Based on 615 useable surveys of international visitors to the Canterbury region of New Zealand, we identify segments of visitors based on environmental attitudes and behaviour toward travel and generational cohort using a two-step clustering procedure. The results confirm inter-generational differences in environmental attitudes and travel behaviours but also highlight intra-generational differences. Gen Z tourists are more likely to belong to “Environmental” or “Mixed-Bag Environmental” segments that are more likely engage in sustainable practices related to resource saving and buying local food compared to other generations. The findings have implications for destination marketing and management.

Upscaling point-scale soil hydraulic properties for application in a catchment model using Bayesian calibration: An application in two agricultural regions of New Zealand

Hydrological modeling for landscape and catchment scale applications requires upscaling of soil hydraulic parameters which are generally only available at point scale. We present a case study where hourly root zone soil water content and drainage observations from nine flat, pastoral sites (Waikato and Canterbury regions in New Zealand) were used to develop an upscaling approach to parameterize the soil water balance module of the TopNet catchment model, based on scaling multi-layer soil profile information from the national soil data base, S-map, to the single-layer soil profile used in TopNet. Using a Bayesian calibration approach, the hydraulic behavioral parameters of TopNet's soil water balance module were identified. Of the eleven calibration parameters considered three were found to be insensitive to data (stress point, unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and infiltration rate); three were correlated and could be determined from specific soil water content observations (wilting point, field capacity and drainable water); and five were correlated and could be determined from combined specific soil water content and drainage observations (drainage rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity profile, effective soil depth, soil water holding capacity and wetting front suction). Based on the eight correlated parameters, upscaling functions were then developed to derive suitable model parameters from S-map-hydro for each site. The validity of the upscaling functions was verified at each site. The approach used in this research can be used to parameterize the TopNet model at other similar locations, and also provides a transferable framework to parameterize other catchment-scale hydrology models where point-scale soil hydraulic data available.

The Effects of Earthquake Experience on Intentions to Respond to Earthquake Early Warnings

Warning systems are essential for providing people with information so they can take protective action in response to perils. Systems need to be human-centered, which requires an understanding of the context within which humans operate. Therefore, our research sought to understand the human context for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Aotearoa New Zealand, a location where no comprehensive EEW system existed in 2019 when we did this study. We undertook a survey of people's previous experiences of earthquakes, their perceptions of the usefulness of a hypothetical EEW system, and their intended responses to a potential warning (for example, Drop, Cover, Hold (DCH), staying still, performing safety actions). Results showed little difference in perceived usefulness of an EEW system between those with and without earthquake experience, except for a weak relationship between perceived usefulness and if a respondent's family or friends had previously experienced injury, damage or loss from an earthquake. Previous earthquake experience was, however, associated with various intended responses to a warning. The more direct, or personally relevant a person's experiences were, the more likely they were to intend to take a useful action on receipt of an EEW. Again, the type of experience which showed the largest difference was having had a family member or friend experience injury, damage or loss. Experience of participation in training, exercises or drills did not seem to prompt the correct intended actions for earthquake warnings; however, given the hypothetical nature of the study, it is possible people did not associate their participation in drills, for example, with a potential action that could be taken on receipt of an EEW. Our analysis of regional differences highlighted that intentions to mentally prepare on receipt of a warning were significantly higher for Canterbury region participants, most likely related to strong shaking and subsequent impacts experienced during the 2010–11 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence. Our research reinforces that previous experience can influence earthquake-related perceptions and behaviors, but in different ways depending on the context. Public communication and interventions for EEW could take into consideration different levels and types of experiences of the audience for greater success in response.