Share Of Candidates Research Articles

Life expectancy and voting patterns in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

IntroductionIn the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, voters in communities with recent stagnation or decline in life expectancy were more likely to vote for the Republican candidate than in prior Presidential elections. We aimed to assess the association between change in life expectancy and voting patterns in the 2020 Presidential election. MethodsWith data on county-level life expectancy from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and voting data from a GitHub repository of results scraped from news outlets, we used weighted multivariable linear regression to estimate the association between the change in life expectancy from 1980 to 2014 and the proportion of votes for the Republican candidate and change in the proportion of votes cast for the Republican candidate in the 2020 Presidential election. ResultsAmong 3110 U.S counties and Washington, D.C., change in life expectancy at the county level was negatively associated with Republican share of the vote in the 2020 Presidential election (parameter estimate −7.2, 95% confidence interval, −7.8 to −6.6). With the inclusion of state, sociodemographic, and economic variables in the model, the association was attenuated (parameter estimate −0.8; 95% CI, −1.5 to −0.2). County-level change in life expectancy was positively associated with change in Republican vote share 0.29 percentage points (95% CI, 0.23 to 0.36). The association was attenuated when state, sociodemographic, and economic variables were added (parameter estimate 0.24; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.33). ConclusionCounties with a less positive trajectory in life expectancy were more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, but the Republican candidate's share improved in some counties that experienced marked gains in life expectancy. Associations were moderated by demographic, social and economic factors.

Can we analyse political discourse using Twitter? Evidence from Spanish 2019 presidential election

Social networking service provider such as Twitter has become very popular communication tools for Internet and Mobile users. Our paper aims at participating into the topical debate if a tweet can shed light on future elections. After listening tweets collected during the Spanish 2019 presidential campaign between April 12 and April 26, we perform a statistical and computing analysis (based on R software) in order to reveal political discourse of the parties engaged and highlight the main messages conveyed and their resulted impact in the share of candidates’ voice. Our results show that Twitter information could be converted into a performant tool to organize digital department of the candidates helping to clarify the impact of their messages on the future voters. Our methodology is based on the use of different machine learning algorithms to clean and analyse 1.7 million of tweets.

Here's Looking at You: Public‐ Versus Elite‐Driven Models of Presidential Primary Elections

ObjectiveThis study advances the presidential primary literature in two ways. First, since many studies in this literature advocate for more detailed theoretical development, we incorporate an interdisciplinary approach by utilizing social contagion theory from the field of sociology. Second, presidential primaries do not adequately explore what role the public plays during the invisible primary. We thus incorporate Google Trends data into presidential primary models to account for the relative amount of public attention for each presidential primary candidate.MethodsWe use fixed effects regression to determine the impact of public attention on a candidate's share of the contested primary vote (CPV).ResultsWe find that increased public attention leads to higher levels of support for a candidate in the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, and CPV.ConclusionThese findings illustrate the extra‐voting role the public plays in presidential primary elections and helps us further distinguish how party elites, voters, and candidates uniquely determine the selection of our executive.

Laying the Foundation for a Successful Presidential Campaign: Public Attention and Fundraising in the Preprimary Period*

ObjectiveThis study advances the presidential primary fundraising literature in two ways. First, we explore candidate fundraising during the preprimary period through the lens of public attention, arguing that candidates must find ways to activate interest in their campaigns in order to raise money. Second, we use Google Trends data to measure how much the public is paying attention to each presidential primary candidate and how this concept affects fundraising.MethodsWe use pooled cross‐sectional time‐series models to determine the impact of public attention on a candidate's weekly fundraising totals.ResultsWe find that a candidate's share of public attention is one of the main drivers of preprimary period fundraising, even for non‐front‐running candidates.ConclusionThis finding illustrates the role the public plays in shaping the preprimary period and identifies a determinant of fundraising that is readily available and frequently updated, allowing both scholars and campaigns to better monitor the preprimary phase of the presidential nomination process.

Getting Electoral Systems to Count: Does Candidate's Smile Matter in Japan?

Previous studies examining whether introducing the Mixed-Member-Majoritarian (MMM) electoral system to Japan’s lower house in 1994 makes a difference in Japanese politics have stimulated a number of researchers on comparative politics. By introducing the MMM electoral system, especially its single member district plurality (SMDP) tier, researchers have expected to see policy-oriented electoral campaign. Employing the latest cutting-edge face-recognition technology on candidates, we provide new evidences suggesting that the SMDP system encourages party- oriented elections compared to the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) electoral system which was used prior to 1994 for Japan’s lower house elections. The results of regression analyses using the six lower house election (1980, 1983, 1986, 2000, 2014 and 2017) data show that, compared to the elections under the SNTV, the impact of candidate’s smile on the vote share of candidates under the SMDP has been diminished even after controlling for other covariates.

Tolerance of Corruption or Ideological Blindness?

It is quite puzzling that corruption persists in democratic countries given that voters have the electoral chance to choose honest politicians for political positions and punish those ones that misbehave. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to investigate the impact of type of misconduct and ideological matching on voters’ perception of corruption; and (2) whether the perception of corruption influences voters’ choice. After critically dialoguing the relevant literature, our investigation is carried out through an experimental approach conducted by Facebook users. Our preliminary results indicate that when voters and the candidate share ideological preferences, they are less likely to consider the candidate’s misbehavior as corrupt than when they have different ideological preferences. It also indicates that ideology, both in economic and in social dimensions, not only affects voters’ perception of corruption but also it affects voters’ choice, regardless of the type of corruption (nepotism versus money).

FORECASTING WITH LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THE POLLS IN 2012

On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote forPS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through quarter 13 of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate's share in the most recent trial-heat polls, which were for the month of July. What mostly distinguishes our model from others is the reliance on leading indicators from the quarter ending in March of the election year. The early reading of LEI works well as a predictor because it summarizes growth in the economy leading up to the election year and also provides advance indication of changes in the economy during the election year. The exact equation and the exact forecast change as the poll readings change during the election year.

Political Parties as a Commitment Technology: Effects of Term Limits on Vote Share

Building on models of electoral competition with reputational mechanisms, I show that term limits decrease the vote share of candidates from parties less able to reward or punish candidates. Candidates suffer by not being able to credibly commit to policies far from their own preferences. Assuming that the major parties can provide better discipline of their members than third parties, the implication of the model is that third party candidates will be worse off, in terms of vote share garnered, in elections for offices with term limits. The hypothesis that third parties do worse under term limits is tested using state gubernatorial elections. Data from 1977–2008 show the vote share of third party candidates is approximately six percent lower in elections for a term-limited office when controlling for other election characteristics and regional and temporal trends in party popularity.

Terytorialne pochodzenie kandydatów na studia z turystyki i rekreacji w Uniwersytecie Pedagogicznym w Krakowie

2010 was the second year of recruitment for Tourism and Recreation studies at the Pedagogical University in Krakow. In 2009 as many as 1022 candidates applied for the full-time first stage studies at this faculty. In 2010 the number decreased by 26% (789 candidates). Despite this decrease the faculty was still one of the most popular at the Pedagogical University, and in the ranking of the number of candidates took the second place. Candidates for Tourism and Recreation faculty in 65% originated from the Malopolskie voivodeship, including 22.3% of candidates from Krakow. As compared to the previous year, the share of candidates from the capital of Malopolskie voivodeship decreased by a few per cent. A significant number of candidates originated from the surrounding voivodeships: the Silesian, Subcarpathian and Świętokrzyskie voivodeships. From amongst other voivodeships a significant number of candidates originated from the Lubelskie voivodeship. In the recruitment so far there were no candidates from Kuyavia and Pomerania voivodeship. Most candidates from the Malopolskie voivodeship came from the nearest – Wielicki and Krakovian – poviats, whereas the fewest from the frontier regions (Nowotarski, Miechowski, Oswiecimski and Chrzanowski poviats). Most candidates were town inhabitants – over 69% of the total candidates. There were as many as 24 towns with 5 candidates and more. The secondary school final examinations [Matura] results were also assessed. The best results were achieved by candidates from Tarnow, Kielce, Olkusz and Zakopane. The poorest results were achieved by candidates from Wieliczka, Busko Zdroj and Jordanow. A two-year cycle of research devoted to the candidates for tourism and recreation faculty reveals a considerable shift in the region-wise distribution of candidates for the faculty, however the period is too short to distinguish clear directions and trends in the shift.

Terytorialne pochodzenie kandydatów na studia z turystyki i rekreacji w Uniwersytecie Pedagogicznym w Krakowie

2010 was the second year of recruitment for Tourism and Recreation studies at the Pedagogical University in Krakow. In 2009 as many as 1022 candidates applied for the full-time first stage studies at this faculty. In 2010 the number decreased by 26% (789 candidates). Despite this decrease the faculty was still one of the most popular at the Pedagogical University, and in the ranking of the number of candidates took the second place. Candidates for Tourism and Recreation faculty in 65% originated from the Malopolskie voivodeship, including 22.3% of candidates from Krakow. As compared to the previous year, the share of candidates from the capital of Malopolskie voivodeship decreased by a few per cent. A significant number of candidates originated from the surrounding voivodeships: the Silesian, Subcarpathian and Świetokrzyskie voivodeships. From amongst other voivodeships a significant number of candidates originated from the Lubelskie voivodeship. In the recruitment so far there were no candidates from Kuyavia and Pomerania voivodeship. Most candidates from the Malopolskie voivodeship came from the nearest – Wielicki and Krakovian – poviats, whereas the fewest from the frontier regions (Nowotarski, Miechowski, Oswiecimski and Chrzanowski poviats). Most candidates were town inhabitants – over 69% of the total candidates. There were as many as 24 towns with 5 candidates and more. The secondary school final examinations [Matura] results were also assessed. The best results were achieved by candidates from Tarnow, Kielce, Olkusz and Zakopane. The poorest results were achieved by candidates from Wieliczka, Busko Zdroj and Jordanow. A two-year cycle of research devoted to the candidates for tourism and recreation faculty reveals a considerable shift in the region-wise distribution of candidates for the faculty, however the period is too short to distinguish clear directions and trends in the shift.

How to Win a Large Election

We consider the optimization problem of a campaign trying to win an election when facing aggregate uncertainty, where agents' voting probabilities are uncertain. Even a small amount of uncertainty will in a large electorate eliminate many of counterintuitive results that arise when voting probabilities are known. In particular, a campaign that can affect the voting probabilities of a fraction of the electorate should maximize the expected difference between its candidate's and the opposing candidate's share of the fraction's potential vote. When a campaign can target only finitely many voters, maximization of the same objective function remains optimal if a convergence condition is satisfied. When voting probabilities are certain, this convergence condition obtains only at knife-edge combinations of parameters, but when voting probabilities are uncertain the condition is necessarily satisfied.

Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous?*

Objective. Past research on ballot order effects has typically focused on the average benefit a candidate receives if placed at the top of the ballot. This study addresses a gap in the literature by examining the possibility that a simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters.Methods. Using data from all Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004, a sample that covers 1,187 separate electoral contests and 7,113 candidate × election observations, this study estimates the effect of ballot order on a candidate's share of the primary vote. To determine whether ballot order effects differ across voters as well as candidates, the study also makes use of electorate‐level demographic data from the 1996 and 2001 Australian censuses.Results. The results of these estimations indicate that being placed first on the ballot increases a candidate's vote share by about 1 percentage point. As a proportion of their total vote, this effect is much larger for independents and minor parties than for major parties. The ballot order effect appears to be similar for male and female candidates, and does not show strong trends upward or downward over the 20‐year period covered by our study. Across electorates, the ballot order effect is higher in places where voters are younger and fluency in English is lower.Conclusions. A statistically significant ballot order effect was a consistent feature of Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004. Moreover, this study challenges the assumption that ballot order effects are homogenous, and finds that the effect of being placed atop the ballot varies across both candidates and voters.

THE ECONOMY AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE IN 2008

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.Prior to the 2008 presidential election we provided forecasts of the final vote relying on a model containing only two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the thirteenth quarter of the sitting president's term; and (2) the incumbent party candidate's share in the most recent trial-heat polls. The novelty is the reliance on the advanced reading of the economy from the quarter ending in March of the election year. (The exact equation and the exact forecast change as the poll readings get closer to the election.) Our final forecast (Erikson and Wlezien 2008) based on trial-heat polls in August was that Barack Obama would win 52.2% of the two-party popular vote. This turned out to be quite close to the Election Day outcome of 53.5% (as of December 2), a little more than one percentage point above what we predicted.

Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context

The trial-heat poll and economy forecasting model is a simple model based on a simple principle. The model uses just two predictor variables to forecast the in-party presidential candidate's share of the national two-party popular vote. The first is the in-party presidential candidate's share of support between the major party candidates in the Gallup Poll's trial-heat (or preference) poll question around Labor Day. The second predictor is the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) measure of real growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of the election year (April through June). The GDP measurement is the “preliminary” measure released by the BEA at the end of August, the latest available in time to be used in the forecast. An in-party presidential candidate who is the incumbent is accorded full responsibility for the economy in the equation and a successor or non-incumbent in-party candidate is accorded half the credit or blame for the growth or decline in the economy. This partial credit or blame for successor candidates refl ects both past experience in forecasting (Campbell 2000) and independent findings regarding the effects of retrospective evaluations of the economy on voting behavior (Nadeau and Lewis-Beck 2001). The regression estimated forecasts based on these two predictors, estimated over the 14 presidential elections from 1948 to 2000, is a mix of about two-thirds trial-heat poll and one-third economic growth. In essence, with the preference poll at the center of the prediction, the forecast may be interpreted as an adjusted preference poll.

The Impact of Party Financial Support on the Electoral Success of US House Candidates

A long-standing assumption among congressional election scholars is that traditional forms of party financial assistance to candidates - that is, coordinated expenditures and direct contributions - have little or no influence on the electoral performance of those candidates. Yet that assumption has never been tested directly. This paper attempts to determine whether or not candidates benefit from the financial support of their parties. It establishes a baseline for future studies of party financial activity by examining data from the 1990 and 1992 congressional election cycles. The results provide qualified evidence that party support can increase a candidate's share of the vote. Specifically, those candidates who face systematic electoral hurdles are likely to benefit from traditional forms of party assistance.

The Candidate's Share of the Vote: The Construction of Indices of Electoral Proximity

The Candidate's Share of the Vote: The Construction of Indices of Electoral Proximity