Calm Periods Research Articles

Dublin-Printed Elegies of the 1720s

Surprising numbers of small-scale printers were active in Dublin in the 1720s. The period of relative calm that followed the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 enabled trade of all kinds to flourish in Ireland and the number of booksellers active in Dublin increased considerably during the first quarter of the eighteenth century. But so did the number of readers: their wants were supplied partly by books and pamphlets imported from England but also by material printed in Dublin. The range of such material was wide and included not only books and proclamations but large amounts of local verse, much of it printed on single-sided broadsheets. An interesting category of this Dublin-printed material is the verse elegy, over a hundred examples of which survive. This article provides an overview of the existing corpus of Dublin-printed elegies before considering two of them in detail. One is a loyalist elegy for King George I and the other an elegy for the hero of the Irish Jacobites, the Duke of Ormond. The article describes these two very different elegies and the cultures from which they sprang.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 management on the workload of human resources working in India’s National Tuberculosis Elimination Program

BackgroundIn 1993, WHO declared tuberculosis (TB) as a global health emergency considering 10 million people are battling TB, of which 30% are undiagnosed annually. In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic took an unprecedented toll on health systems in every country. Public health staff already engaged in TB control and numerous other departments were additionally tasked with managing COVID-19, stretching human resource (HR) capacity beyond its limits. As part of an assessment of HR involved in TB control in India, The World Bank Group and partners conducted an analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on TB human resources for health (HRH) workloads, with the objective of describing the extent to which TB-related activities could be fulfilled and hypothesizing on future HR requirements to meet those needs.MethodsThe study team conducted a Workload Indicators and Staffing Needs (WISN) analysis according to standard WHO methodology to classify the workloads of priority cadres directly or indirectly involved in TB control activities as over-, adequately or under-worked, in 18 districts across seven states in India. Data collection was done via telephone interviews, and questions were added regarding the proportion of time dedicated to COVID-19 related tasks. We carried out quantitative analysis to describe the time allocated to COVID-19 which otherwise would have been spent on TB activities. We also conducted key informant interviews (KII) with key TB program staff about HRH planning and task-shifting from TB to COVID-19.ResultsWorkload data were collected from 377 respondents working in or together with India’s Central TB Division (CTD). 73% of all respondents (n = 270) reported carrying out COVID-19 tasks. The average time spent on COVID-19 tasks was 4 h / day (n = 72 respondents). Multiple cadres highly instrumental in TB screening and diagnosis, in particular community outreach (ASHA) workers and CBNAAT/TrueNAAT laboratory technicians working at peripheral, block and district levels, were overworked, and spending more than 50% of their time on COVID-19 tasks, reducing time for TB case-finding. Qualitative interviews with laboratory technicians revealed that PCR machines previously used for TB testing were repurposed for COVID-19 testing.ConclusionsThe devastating impact of COVID-19 on HR capacity to conduct TB case-finding in India, as in other settings, cannot be overstated. Our findings provide clear evidence that NTEP human resources did not have time or essential material resources to carry out TB tasks during the COVID pandemic without doing substantial overtime and/or compromising on TB service delivery. To minimize disruptions to routine health services such as TB amidst future emerging infectious diseases, we would do well, during periods of relative calm and stability, to strategically map out how HRH lab staff, public health resources, such as India’s Health and Wellness Centers and public health cadre, and public-private sector collaboration can most optimally absorb shocks to the health system.

Analysing Financial Market Integration between Stock and Precious Metals Indices

Given the global pandemic in 2020 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there is renewed interest in understanding the integration between the Dow Jones (United States), Amman SE General (Jordan), BLSI (Lebanon), EGX 30 (Egypt), ISRAEL TA 125 (Israel), MASI (Morocco), MOEX (Russia) stock indices and the precious metals Gold Bullion LBM, Silver, Handy & Harman, London Platinum, in the period from 1 January 2018 to 23 November 2023. The study aims to address two key questions: i) Have the events of 2020 and 2022 influenced the integration between the capital markets of MENA countries and precious metals? ii) In the case of a significant increase in integration, will this imply a trend towards efficiency or inefficiency in the markets analysed? The results of the cointegration tests show an increase in integrations between the Tranquil and Stress subperiods; for example, platinum rose from zero integrations to 4, being the market most affected by the events of 2020 and 2022, the MOEX increased from 3 to 6 integrations, the Dow Jones index rose from 1 to 3 integrations, the Amman SE General from 1 to 2 integrations. On the other hand, the ISRAEL TA 125 index decreased from 5 integrations in the Calm period to 1 integration during the Stress period. The EGX also decreased from 2 integrations to one integration, the MASI from three to zero integrations, and gold from 1 integration to zero. The BLSI stock index maintained its 1-1 level of integrations, while silver also followed the same 2-2 trend. These results do not allow acceptance of the first research question since it was found that there were increases/decreases in integrations during the 2020 and 2022 events. The DFA slopes were estimated to answer the second research question since most markets showed significant persistence. However, it was found that this persistence did not coincide with an increase/decrease in the level of integration between the markets analysed. Given these results, the second research question was also partially rejected. In conclusion, the results of this study have significant implications for international investors operating in the financial markets of MENA countries.

Analysis of Ionospheric Delay Correction Model Performance During Geomagnetic Storms

AbstractIonospheric delay, as one of the largest error sources in radio propagation, can only be corrected for this error using the ionospheric delay correction model for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) single‐frequency users. In this paper, the 2021 geomagnetic storm event is selected, and based on the measured ionospheric data from the GNSS observatory, the perturbation of the ionosphere by the geomagnetic storm event is analyzed, and it is found that the response of the ionosphere to the geomagnetic storm has obvious differences in the response characteristics and response time in different latitude regions. The performance of the global ionospheric map (GIM), the empirical model, and the broadcast ionospheric model during the geomagnetic storm‐induced ionospheric perturbation is analyzed and the change in the accuracy of each ionospheric model during the geomagnetic storm‐induced ionospheric perturbation is investigated, using the measured electron content of the GNSS as a benchmark. The results show that there is good agreement between the GIM products and the measured electron content during the period of ionospheric calm and the period of ionospheric perturbation. It is worth noting that geomagnetic storms do not necessarily lead to a decrease in the accuracy of ionospheric delay‐correction models, and in some cases, the models that were originally under‐accurate show a tendency to improve their accuracy during the period of perturbation instead. Neither the broadcast ionospheric model nor the electron content of the empirical model output responds to geomagnetic storm‐induced ionospheric perturbations.

The Association Between Cortisol And Stress Levels In Hypertension Patients

Hypertension is one of the leading causes of morbidity around the world. Between 1990 and 2019, the number of people with hypertension doubled, rising from 650 million to 1.3 billion. Hypertension is defined as high blood pressure with a systolic pressure higher than 140 mmHg and a diastolic pressure higher than 90 mmHg on both measurements taken at a five-minute interval during a period of sufficient rest or calm. Stress is the leading cause of hypertension because it increases cortisol output by the adrenal glands, which leads to hypertension. This study is a literature review which includes completing a journal review applying comparative research methods. The results indicate that there is a link. Cortisol levels and stress levels are linked in hypertensive patients because when stressed, the body releases more stress hormones (adrenaline and cortisol), which activates the Renin Angiotensin Aldosterone System (RAAS), causing blood pressure increase..

The European Renewable Energy Sector in Calm and Turmoil Periods: The Key Role of Sovereign Risk

The European Renewable Energy Sector in Calm and Turmoil Periods: The Key Role of Sovereign Risk

Time-varying expected returns, conditional skewness and Bitcoin return predictability

We employ a GARCH-type model to jointly estimate returns, conditional variance and skewness and show that conditional skewness outperforms sample skewness and conditional and sample variance in predicting future Bitcoin returns. Interestingly, the results show that the relationship between conditional skewness and future Bitcoin returns is different depending on the sample period. In the first subsample (2018–2020), a period of relative calm in the Bitcoin market, the relationship is negative, which is in line with that found in the literature. However, in the second subsample (2021–2022), a period of major turmoil in the Bitcoin market, the relationship is positive, which is consistent with that found in previous papers on the relationship between conditional market skewness and future index returns during crisis periods. Based on these results, a dynamic buy and sell strategy of buying or selling Bitcoin based on the estimated conditional skewness is proposed. This dynamic strategy outperforms a static buy-and-hold strategy. The profitability of this strategy can be viewed as the reward that investors demand for bearing the risk associated with the changing conditions in the cryptocurrency market that generate time-varying expected returns.

Crowds and Smiles: Visual Opportunity Structures and the Communication of European Political Leaders During the COVID-19 Pandemic

ABSTRACT The growing interest in political leaders’ visual communication often emphasizes specific visual features without focusing on the driving factors behind these strategies. Our study introduces the Visual Opportunity Structure (VOS) theory, aiming to explain the use of specific visual elements based on their suitability within the socio-political context. We examined the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing a large dataset (N = 73,379) of Instagram posts by 28 European national party leaders coded through automatic facial and emotional recognition algorithms. The findings reveal a negative link between the use of inappropriate visual features during pandemic waves, like depicting happiness and groups of people, and the severity of the pandemic’s impact. Political leaders significantly reduce these inappropriate visuals during severe waves, reintroducing them in calmer periods. This trend is particularly pronounced among government party leaders. Our research not only unveils a pattern in the visual communication tactics used by political figures during the pandemic but also provides deeper insights into how visual strategies align with the broader context. By shedding light on these nuances, the study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of visual political communication online.

Bispectral Index Monitoring in the Nursing of Patients With Paroxysmal Sympathetic Hyperactivity.

To investigate the clinical nursing effect of bispectral index (BIS) monitoring for paroxysmal sympathetic hyperactivity (PSH) patients in the neurosurgical intensive care unit (NICU). From January 2022 to June 2023, a total of 30 patients with PSH secondary to moderate to severe craniocerebral injury in the NICU were monitored for BIS. The patients' paroxysmal sympathetic hyperactivity-assessment measure (PSH-AM) scores were recorded. PSH patients generally appear in 3 states: calm state, seizure state, and postmedication state. Thirty PSH patients' BIS values were recorded during the calm period, during the seizure state, and postmedication state, and these 3 different stages' BIS values were divided into groups A, B, and C, using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to compare groups. The Kruskal-Wallis H test yielded a value of H=22.599, P <0.001. H0 was rejected against the test standard of α=0.05, and the BIS values of groups A, B, and C differed. The BIS values of group A and group B differed after a pairwise comparison, and the difference was statistically significant (adjusted P =0.001). Group B and group C had different BIS values, and the difference was statistically significant (adjusted P =0.001); group A and Group C had no difference in BIS values, and the difference was not statistically significant (adjusted P =1.00). Taking BIS value as the nursing observation index for PSH patients can make nursing work more objective, reasonable, and accurate, reduce the inducing factors of PSH attack, further reduce the attack of PSH, save nursing resources, and help guide the safety assessment of sedative use.

Deltaic marsh accretion under episodic sediment supply controlled by river regulations and storms: Implications for coastal wetlands restoration in the Yellow River Delta

Sediment supply has long been recognized as a critical factor affecting salt marsh evolutions. Subject to fluctuating river discharges and coastal hydrodynamics, sediment supply to deltaic marshes are episodic rather than continuous. To evaluate the impacts of episodic sediment delivery under river regulations and storm events on deltaic marsh accretion, a 5-month (April 18th to September 4th, 2021) field campaign was conducted at a Spartina alterniflora marsh of the Yellow River Delta, China. Nine storm events and the Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme (WSRS) coinciding with a freshwater diversion were captured. It was found that the two phases of the WSRS differed greatly in their contribution to marsh accretion. During the Water-Regulation Phase (WRP), marsh accretion rates showed little difference with pre-WRP periods. However, the subsequent Sediment-Regulation Phase (SRP) contributed to ∼15 % of annual accretion within only 4 days, suggesting the SRP was more effective in nourishing deltaic marshes with sediment. Further analyses indicated that the higher accretion during SRP was attributed to both higher sediment concentrations and more favorable sediment pathways, influenced by delta-scale river-tide interactions. Observations also showed that storm events contributed to half of the marsh accretion during the non-WSRS period when the fluvial sediment supply was very low. During storms, wave-induced intertidal resuspension acted as the major sediment sources. Under favorable conditions (onshore wind, high water levels, high waves), tidal-averaged sediment delivery to marshes underwent as much as fifty-fold increase compared with the calm period. The observed marsh dynamics suggested that marsh sedimentations depended on not only the seaward sediment concentrations, but also the sediment transport pathways. For deltaic marsh restoration practices, we proposed that marsh-orientated schemes which align river regulations with favorable meteorological and hydrodynamic conditions, could potentially make better use of fluvial sediment for deltaic marsh nourishment.

Investigation on failure mechanism and time-delay fracturing behavior of hard-rock tunnel under extremely high geostress state

To investigate the failure mechanism and time-delay fracturing behavior of hard-rock tunnel under extremely high geostress state, a series of conventional triaxial compression tests and time-delay loading–unloading mechanical tests on rocks were conducted. Combining testing results and on-site data of deep-buried tunnels, the generation mechanism and failure process of time-delay rockbursts were analyzed. The results indicate that with the increase of confining pressure, the failure mode of hard-rock exhibits a transition from axial splitting type and shear-slip type to special squeezing-expansion type. The progressive damage of rocks under extremely high stress state mainly manifests as aging lateral and volumetric expansion. Under time-delay compression tests, the long-term strength of hard-rock is lower than the threshold stress of σeb. In extremely high stress state, the fracture and dissipated energy evolution of rocks has significant time-dependent characteristics. Under extremely high stress conditions, rocks can store a large amount of releasable energy internally and gradually generate numerous cracks without the need for external work, ultimately leading to sudden unstable failure. Affected by the superposition of time-delay pressure and loading–unloading effects, the hard-rock also exhibits the same time-dependent fracturing behavior as soft-rock under high stress state, but its deformation mechanism is dominated by lateral expansion and crack volumetric dilatancy. When the stress level is far from reaching the ultimate strength required for rockmass failure, it is sufficient to cause the propagation of internal microcracks. Under the action of time-delay loads, the spalling and peeling failure of surrounding rock is significantly reduced, but the scale of unstable blocks is larger. Based on the failure process and microseismic monitoring date of rockburst in hard-rock tunnels, the entire evolution process of time-delay rockbursts can be divided into the following six stages: before excavation, rockmss excavation, aging cracking, squeezing-expansion, instability and spalling, time-delay rockburst. Time-delay rockburst has an obvious acoustic emission calm period before its occurrence, making its incubation process has strong suddenness and randomness.

A Novel Ionospheric Inversion Model: PINN‐SAMI3 (Physics Informed Neural Network Based on SAMI3)

AbstractPurely data‐driven ionospheric modeling fails to adequately obey fundamental physical laws. To overcome this shortcoming, we propose a novel ionospheric inversion model, Physics‐Informed Neural Network based on fully physical models SAMI3 (PINN‐SAMI3). The model incorporates the governing equations of the ionospheric physical model SAMI3 into the neural network to reconstruct the temporal‐spatial distribution of ionospheric plasma parameters. The objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of integrating physical models with machine learning for ionospheric modeling. The PINN‐SAMI3 framework enforces physical laws through the multiple ion species of continuity, momentum, temperature equations in the magnetic dipole coordinate system. The simulation results show that if sparse ion densities are used as training data, it is possible to retrieve ionospheric electron densities, ion velocities and ion temperatures, respectively. The optimal physical constraints have been also investigated for different inversion quantities. Furthermore, the impact of incorporating E × B velocity terms on inversion results during the periods of ionospheric calm and geomagnetic storm is analyzed. The PINN‐SAMI3 achieves good inversion results even using sparse data in comparison to the traditional artificial neural networks (ANN). The framework will contribute to advance the future space weather prediction capability with artificial intelligence (AI).

Nubecularia-coralline algal-serpulid-microbial bioherms of the Paratethys Sea-Distribution and paleoecological significance (upper Serravallian, upper Sarmatian, Middle Miocene).

Nubecularia bioherms represent unique bioconstructions that are restricted to the upper Serravallian of the Paratethys and have been reported since the 19th century. They occur in the Central Paratethys in the late Sarmatian and the Eastern Paratethys in the Bessarabian both regional stages of the respective Paratethyan areas. In this study, several locations in the Vienna and Styrian basins of the Central Paratethys were studied out of which four localities were documented in detail (Wolfsthal, Maustrenk, St. Margarethen-Zollhaus, Vienna-Ruzickagasse) to reconstruct their sedimentary setting, their internal composition, and their indications of environmental parameters. The detailed studies included logging of outcrop sections, petrographic, facies and biotic analyses of polished slabs and thin sections and also cathodoluminescence analyses. These concluded that these bioconstructions are not only composed of the foraminifer Nubecularia but represent a complex mixture and interrelationships of Nubecularia, serpulids and microbial carbonate. Four boundstone types can be differentiated: Nubecularia boundstone, Nubecularia-coralline algal boundstone, stromatolitic/thrombolitic boundstone and serpulid-nubeculariid-microbial boundstone. The first 3 types are characteristic of specific localities; the fourth type occurs in all studied locations and represents the terminal association on top of the three other types. The three basal boundstones are predominantly of columnar growth form irrespective of dominance of Nubecularia, coralline algae or microbial carbonate, and the terminal boundstone is widely irregularly organized. The general depositional environment is characterized by cross-bedded oolitic grainstones with abundant quartz grains, miliolid foraminifers and mollusks. Intercalated are microbial carbonates mostly stromatolites but also thrombolites. This indicates a general high water energy environment interrupted by more calm periods when the microbial carbonate was built. The 3 basal types of bioconstructions are interpreted to reflect decreasing food supply and/or oxygenation from Nubecularia over Nubecularia-coralline algal to stromatolitic/thrombolitic boundstone. The serpulid-nubeculariid-microbial boundstone reflects an internal succession with a decrease of the same parameters. Water depth is considered very shallow ranging from 0 to a few meters, and salinity was normal marine to hypersaline. The reconstructed paleoenvironment with dominating oolite shoals and seagrass meadows was not restricted to the Central Paratethys but extended over the entire Paratethys and represented the largest oolite facies area of the entire Cenozoic!

Between victory and peace: Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts.

Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan-India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel-Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.

PROCYCLICAL ECONOMIC POLICY AND RISKS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY IN ROMANIA

The current situation of the Romanian economy must be understood beginning from the analysis of the main measures of fiscal-budgetary policy applied over the last years by the public authority. In general, the Romanian fiscal policy (before and after accession) was procyclical. However, we continue by presenting some of its characteristics for the past years when we underwent the last ascending phase of the economic cycle. Actually, Romania’s GDP exceeded constantly the potential level, and the demand surplus became predominant, generating inflationary pressures. Maintaining the expansionist level of the fiscal policy, in the conditions of a positive deviation of GDP, as of 2017, and opting-out regarding the structural deficit target contributed to affecting the stability of public finances, on short- and medium-term. Romania entered into an extremely difficult economic context, generated by the pandemic, with an extremely narrow fiscal space which limited a lot the possibilities of combating the effects of the pandemic. In this paper we analyzed a period limited to the year 2020, because we consider this time as marking the end of an economic cycle in a period of peace and economic calm, as another is about to begin based on the new realities.

Platform Evolution in an Oligo–Miocene Back‐arc Basin: An Example from the Central Iran Basin

AbstractThe Qom Formation is the most important hydrocarbon reservoir target in Central Iran. The Qom platform developed in a back‐arc basin during the Oligo–Miocene due to the closing of the Tethyan Seaway. This formation consists of a variety of carbonate and non‐carbonate facies deposited on a platform ranging from supratidal to basin. A combination of tectonic and eustatic events led to some lateral and vertical facies variations in the study area. Six third‐order depositional sequences and related surfaces were identified regarding vertical facies changes in the studied sections of this Oligo–Miocene succession. According to all results and data, this succession was initially deposited during the Chattian upon a distally steepened ramp of siliciclastic‐carbonate composition, including the Bouma sequence. Then, from the late Chattian to the Aquitanian, the platform changed into a homoclinal carbonate ramp with a gentle profile. With respect to tectonic activity, this phase was a calm period during the deposition of the Qom Formation. Finally, a drowned carbonate platform and a rimmed shelf emerged during the Burdigalian, terminated by the continental deposits of the Upper Red Formation. Regarding all geological characteristics, three main tectono‐eustatic evolutionary phases have been recognized in the Qom back‐arc basin.

Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall: A Kalman Filter Approach

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss a portfolio may incur at a given confidence level over a specified time, while expected shortfall (ES) determines the probability weighted losses greater than VaR. VaR has recently been replaced by (but remains a crucial step in the computation of) ES by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) as the primary metric for banks to forecast market risk and allocate the relevant amount of regulatory market risk capital. The aim of the study is to introduce a more accurate approach of measuring VaR and hence ES determined using loss forecast accuracy. VaR (hence ES) is unobservable and depends on subjective measures like volatility, more accurate (loss forecast) estimates of both are constantly sought. Modelling the volatility of asset returns as a stochastic process, so a Kalman filter (which distinguishes and isolates noise from data using Bayesian statistics and variance reduction) is used to estimate both market risk metrics. A variety of volatility estimates, including the Kalman filter's recursive approach, are used to measure VaR and ES. Loss forecast accuracy is then computed and compared. The Kalman filter produces the most accurate loss forecast estimates in periods of both calm and volatile markets. The Kalman filter provides the most accurate forecasts of future market risk losses compared with standard methods which results in more accurate provision of regulatory market risk capital.

Sedimentary Characteristics and Basin Evolution of a Compartmentalized Foreland Basin—Internal Ionian Zone, Western Greece

This study is based on the detailed sedimentological analysis of eleven sections and one well through the late Eocene–Oligocene flysch formation of the Internal Ionian Zone (IIZ) in Western Greece. The sections are spread from the northern parts of Epirus to the north and Aitolokarnania to the south. Sedimentological data combined with biostratigraphic analyses resulted in a five-stage evolutionary model for the basin. Unit I corresponds to the lower part of the examined sections, indicating the onset of clastic sedimentation. Regarding depositional environments, it is regarded as a basin plain where lobe distal fringe accumulations occur. Unit II consists almost exclusively of heterolithic facies, marking the advance of a lobe complex system. Massive sandstone facies dominate unit III and can be considered a more proximal submarine fan system. Unit IV reflects a calm period of the basin, where mud-dominated heterolithics and hemipelagic mudstones were deposited. Hemipelagic mudstone facies with intervals of heterolithics, conglomerates, and deformed and massive sandstone facies characterize unit V. The architecture resembles a slope system incised by canyons and channels. The sand-rich intervals in Units III and V could act as the most favorable reservoir levels. In contrast, the sand-rich intervals in Unit II are considered less promising due to their higher heterogeneity.

Study on mechanical properties and acoustic emission characteristics of deep diorite under uniaxial compression

The research object is diorite in the Lingbei TBM section of the Hanjiang-To-Weihe River Qinling tunnel, with a buried depth of over 1 km. Using MTS-2000 microcomputer-controlled electro-hydraulic servo universal testing machine and DS5-16b acoustic emission (AE) monitoring system, uniaxial compression and acoustic emission monitoring tests were carried out on rock samples, to study the uniaxial compression mechanical properties and acoustic emission characteristics of the deep diorite. The results of the study indicate that: (1) During uniaxial compression, diorite undergoes four stages: initial compaction, elasticity, yield and failure, in which the curve of the initial compaction stage is significantly smoother. The uniaxial compressive strength is 41.95 MPã102.42 MPa, with an average of 74.07 Mpa; The axial peak strain ranges from 1 % to 1.4 %, and the failure mode belongs to brittle ductile splitting failure. (2) The cumulative ringing count and energy showed a very slow increase trend during the calm period; After entering a surge period (with the appearance of Kaiser points), both show a significant transition state; During the slow increase period, the overall growth rate of the two slowed down and remained almost silent. (3) On the basis of the analysis of RA-AF values during the deformation and rupture process of diorite, it can be seen that the damage type of diorite is tensile damage by the significant low RA value and high AF value characteristics, which coincides with the actual damage fracture characteristics of the rocks in the sample. (4) During the compaction stage, there are few acoustic emission location points, which correspond to low energy and are mainly distributed at the higher and lower ends of the sample; After entering the elasticity stage, the number of positioning points significantly increases and gradually expands towards the middle; Near Kaiser point, the number of location points and corresponding energy are both in a sharp increase state, and this trend is in good agreement with the changes in the ringing count-time and energy-time curves. (5) The damage time mainly starts at the end of the calm period, and the pattern of change in the damage curve coincides with the localization point and energy evolution. The results of the research can be used as a referential basis for the development of the excavation, protection and other construction plans for the Lingbei TBM section of the Hanjiang-To-Weihe River Qinling tunnel or similar surrounding rock tunnels, as well as for further conducting triaxial unloading tests on diorite.

The Effects of External Debt on the Economic Growth of India during Various Crisis Periods: A Markov- Switching GARCH Model Approach

This article seeks to investigate the impact of the volatility of the external debt burden on the economic growth of India. The MS (Markov - Switching) - GARCH model is the cornerstone in studying the effects of external debt on the economic growth that is simulated herein. This article applies a MS - GARCH model that allows not only unobserved variables within an observed model but also uses a robust algorithm to reach strong optimization (convergence) through iteration in a dynamic system in the estimation procedure. This article considers the period from Q2 2004 to Q4 2022 with 74 sample observations. Considering various crises like the global financial crisis, the Euro crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic that occurred during the study period, the results identify two regimes based on conditional volatility. One is the global financial recession period (regime-1) and another is the post-global financial recession period (regime-2). The findings show that the conditional volatility as well as the variance in the volatility of economic growth due to the external debt of India is much stronger in the global financial recession period (regime-1) than in the post-global financial recession period (regime-2). It implies that the Euro crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic are having less impact on external debts in India. The transition matrix indicates the greater probability of the economic growth rate settling down in regime 2 when it is already in regime 2, as it is considered to be a much calmer period. Finally, the results of the stable probabilities suggest that the economic growth rate of India is much more stable in regime 2 than in regime 1. This article puts forward relevant policy implications for coming out from the debt overhang scenario in India.