Computation Of Error Probability Research Articles

Complex Gaussian Ratio-Based Bit Error Probability Calculation for PAM-FBMC Systems

Complex Gaussian Ratio-Based Bit Error Probability Calculation for PAM-FBMC Systems

Safety Extension Proposal using IO-Link Wireless

This article descibes an enhancement of IO-LinkWireless with an additional safety and security communication layer employing the black channel principle to fulfill safety requirements with respect to IEC 61784-3:2021. An extended channel model based on uniformly distributed segments (UDS) superimposed with the binary symmetric channel (BSC) is applied to simplify the residual error probability (REP) calculation, to detect additional error patterns, and to consider BSC-preserved cryptographic algorithms. Also, the REP with respect to the underlying security layer as well as the probability of failure per hour are quantified.

A safety supervision tool toward digitalization of maritime HRA applications: the case of MMOHRA.

This study proposed a safety supervision tool to HRA-based monitoring of ship maintenance operations via a digital platform. It is conceptualized to assist safety supervisors in the best proactive measures along with maintenance works onboard ships. The tool refers the marine maintenance and operations human reliability analysis (MMOHRA) concept. Moreover, it facilitates the timely and consistently practice of MMOHRA. Indeed, it accurately identifies critical tasks and associate recovery acts. Fundamentally, a rule-based mechanism supported with relation matrix response to general task type selection, EPCs' assignment, and human error probability (HEP) calculation, respectively. Then, the system automatically calculates, visualizes and manages HEP values of operation steps. Consequently, this study digitalizes maritime HRA investigations particular to maintenance operations. The proposed tool, compliance with the relevant sections of updated inspection regimes such as SIRE 2.0 and DryBms, has very high utility to effectively control human element onboard. This study also enables a further research potential to conduct an extended human reliability database in ship fleet level.

An inter-method comparison of four Human Reliability Assessment models

This paper presents a comparison of four common Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) models through a scoping literature review and sensitivity analysis. The scoping literature review identified 72 relevant studies which formed the basis of the comparison. Studies reported the four selected models have similarities in terms of the sector of origin, applied sectors, output calculation, and a lack of clear guidelines on Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) selection and risk level allocation. The studied models have differences in the number and type of PIF inputs and Human Error Probability (HEP) calculation procedures. The One Factor At a Time (OFAT) and “combined” sensitivity analysis were conducted to examine the HRA models’ responses to systematic risk level changes when each of 8 matching PIFs were systematically set to “high” and then “low” levels individually and simultaneously. The OFAT analysis showed coefficients of variation (CV) in HEP varying from 9% for skills/training up to 94% for work procedure when the PIFs are assigned to a “low” risk level individually. The combined analysis showed the median HEP value close to 97% and 1% when PIFs are assigned to” high” and “low” risk levels respectively. Although the selected HRA models were reported to be validated in high-risk domains there was no study found that validated these models in low-risk domains such as manual order picking, or manual assembly lines. The HRA models examined here are disconnected from specific system design elements which can inhibit design improvement efforts. The study outcome suggests the need for clear guidelines for PIFs selection and risk level allocation. Future research should address both the connection of error assessment to the design of the system and the features of new HRA models that affect its reliability and validity in a variety of industrial contexts.

SLIM based methodology for human error probability calculation of bunker spills in maritime operations

System reliability assessment is among the main acts in the operation and maintenance of every industrial and service sector, which also applies to maritime transportation system. Safety is an important parameter for system reliability assessment and a top priority for maritime transportation sector due to its direct effects on the environment, human life, and goods transported. Because human factor plays a very critical role on improving safety onboard, reliability assessment becomes vital for researchers and decision makers. The human factor also has an important role in bunkering operations. Bunkering is a routine operation on a ship which has been the cause of several accidental oil spills in the past. To prevent environmental damages caused by oil spill, bunkering operation requires careful planning, utmost care and high performance of the ship's crew. In this regard, the prediction of human error probabilities offers an advantage to prevent environmental pollution at sea and also provides a high level of safety in maritime industry. Therefore, the aim of this study is to calculate human error probabilities in bunkering operation by using Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM). This study can also be used as a decision-making tool by ship's crew for improving safety at sea and preventing ship-based oil spill through providing a strategic and effective approach in bunkering operations.

Analytical Models for the Computation of Error Probability of Multi-Level Phase Shift Keying Modulation Scheme

In this paper, analytical models for the computation of error probability (BER) of the Multi-level Phase Shift Keying (MPSK) modulation scheme is presented. Analytical models for computing MPSK bit error probability based on Q function, error function (erf) and complementary error function (erfc) are presented. Also, an analytical model for computing the symbol error rate for MPSK is presented. Furthermore, a generalized analytical expression for BER as a function of modulation order (M) and energy per bit to noise power density ratio (Eb/No) is presented. The BER was computed for various values of M (2 ≤ M ≤ 256) and Eb/No (0 dB ≤ Eb/No ≤ 14 Db). The results showed that at Eb/No =12 dB, a BER of 9.006E-09 is realized for M =2 and M =4 whereas BER of 1.056E-01 is realized for M = 256. Also, for the same M = 2 , the value of BER decreased from 1.2501E-02 at Eb/No = 4 dB to 9.0060E-09at Eb/No =12 dB. Generally, the results showed that for the MPSK modulation scheme, for a given value of Eb/No, the lower modulation order (M) has a lower BER and for a given modulation order, (M) the BER decreases as Eb/No increases.

A method for assessing Human Error Probability through physiological and psychological factors tests based on CREAM and its applications

Current Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods have focused on the impact of environmental conditions or Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) on human errors, while current research has ignored two aspects: one the influence of Human Inherent Factors (HIFs) associated with accidents, the other the Human Error Probability (HEP) calculations, whose results were not based on HIFs tests. The purpose of this study was to examine HEP based on HIFs’ assessments that contained physiological and psychological factor tests, including Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) was chosen as a framework. Additionally, the evaluation of Common Performance Commons (CPCs) was optimized so that assessment of CPCs in objective circumstances could be achieved. This method was applied within a pharmaceutical company to demonstrate its applicability and reliability in order for it to be more widely applied in HEP calculations in other various industries to appraise tasks in relation to status management, and staff personnel management.

Integrated methods for analysing the causal factors in Australian maritime occupational accidents

This study employs the human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART) and its error producing conditions relating to the 4M (man, machine, media, and management) method to analyse the causes of occupational accidents in Australia. It seeks to find the causes of occupational accidents, apply the HEART-4M method to occupational accidents, and redefine generic tasks (GTs) in a maritime work environment. It acquires data from the 2008-2017 Australia Transport Safety Bureau report on merchant ships and analyses 30 occupational accident data reports through HEART-4M. The results consist of the onboard working situation and its relation to a GT, error producing conditions, and human error probability calculations. The most common GT in these accidents was a simple task performed rapidly, routine tasks involving a relatively low level of skill, and complex tasks. Furthermore, most accidents occurred during the loading and unloading of cargo.

Bit Error Probability of MQAM in the Presence of Phase Noise

In Gray coded rectangular and square quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), for each bit, the bit decision boundaries are distributed only along one dimension. Consequently, the exact calculation of bit error probability (BEP) of rectangular and square QAM in the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel results in simple one-dimensional (1-D) error/Q-functions. This is while the symbol decision boundaries involve two dimensions. This paper presents exact and general expressions for the BEP of Gray coded M -ary rectangular and square QAM in the presence of phase noise in the AWGN as well as flat-fading channels. In doing so, we first derive exact expressions for the BEP of MQAM in the presence of a fixed phase error. The expression will be a weighted sum of 1-D complementary error functions for the AWGN channel. For the flat-fading channels, these formulas consist of only single integrals or simple functions. We then integrate the formulas across noise distribution, to derive the average BEP expression of Gray coded MQAM in the presence of random phase error. Moreover, we provide an exact expression for the bit error floor (BEF) of MQAM in the presence of phase noise in the AWGN and fading channels. The exact expressions include numerous terms for higher order MQAM. Considering the most dominant terms of the exact expressions, we also propose simpler expressions. Simulation results validate the accuracy of the proposed exact expressions for arbitrary levels of input SNR. Moreover, the results show very good performance for the approximate expressions.

Generalised expression for the symbol error floor of M ‐ary phase shift keying in the presence of phase noise, I/Q imbalance and DC‐offset

This study, for the first time, presents an exact expression for the symbol error floor (SEF) of M-ary phase shift keying in the presence of phase noise, in-phase/quadrature (I/Q) gain and phase imbalances, and DC-offsets altogether. Accurate calculation of symbol error probability, and also the SEF, in the presence of transmitter and receiver impairments is usually a cumbersome task. In this study, the symbol decision boundaries are moved from the demodulator output to the demodulator input as a means to simplify the SEF calculation. In other words, the effect of the receiver I/Q imbalance and DC-offset is applied on the symbol decision boundaries. Using the decision boundaries at the demodulator input facilitates the exact SEF calculation. The proposed exact expression consists of single integrals. These integrals can be accurately approximated by Gaussian one-dimensional Q-functions assuming a Gaussian distribution for the phase noise. Computer simulations with Gaussian phase noise validate the exactness of the proposed analysis.

Algorithm for Eliminating of the Limiting Disambiguation of Measurement Made by Phase Radio Direction Finders by Sorting Out the Abnormally Large Errors

The aim of the article is to find the upper probability limit of the measurement results to correct disambiguation in case of multi-base phase direction finders, where all bases are ambiguous. Direction finding is done using the maximum likelihood method based on a set of measured phase differences and an algorithm of rejecting (erasing) abnormally large measurement errors. The theoretical background of the article is the maximum likelihood method applied to disambiguate results of the phase measurements in multi-base measuring systems. The physical meaning of the method is that if the disambiguation process is correct, the results of angular measurements for each base are grouped around the true value of bearing. The mathematical background of the article are methods of linear algebra based on the geometric interpretation of disambiguation measurement results. We obtained formulas for calculating upper bounds for the probability correct disambiguation of measurement results, which are applicable to direction finders with linear, planar and conformal antenna arrays. The obtained theoretical relations are exemplified by a numerical calculation of error probability including the upper bounds for a specific three-base direction finder 'bad' measurement results. The calculations proved effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, which depends on the accuracy of phase measurements. The proposed algorithm is applicable not only in case of the direction finders, but also for other multi-base phase measurements. The work may be interesting for designers of direction finders in terms of achievable accuracy of measurement results even if some of the results are rejected.

Investigation for achievable NCG of optical FEC coding with convolutional code using optical XOR gates based on four‐wave mixing in highly non‐linear fibre

This study has given the investigation for achievable net coding gain (NCG) of optical forward error correction (FEC) coding scheme with convolutional code to control the received sensitivity following a required signal-to-noise ratio in the communication channel. The achievable NCG is obtained from the difference between the upper bound NCG and the power penalty of the optical exclusive-OR (XOR) gate, which is based on a four-wave mixing in highly non-linear fibre. The upper bound NCG was analytically derived by calculating error probability of optimal convolutional code, and the power penalty was numerically derived by comparing bit-error rates between with and without the optical FEC coding. To confirm the feasibility for achieving the highest NCG, the optimal operating condition of the optical XOR gate is experimentally evaluated to minimise their power penalty. A 0.5 dB power penalty was obtained at BER = 10 − 9 under the optimised condition with 223−1 pseudo-random binary sequence differential phase-shift keying-modulated return to zero signal at 10 Gbps.

Developing a New Decision Support System to Manage Human Reliability based on HEART Method

Human performance and reliability monitoring have become the main issue for many industries since human error ratios cannot be mitigated to the zero level and many accidents, malfunctions, and quality defects are happening due to the human in production systems. Since the human resources implement a different range of tasks, the calculation of human error probability (HEP) is complicated, and several methods have been proposed to identify and quantify the HEP. This fact expresses the necessity of a Decision Support System (DSS) to calculate the HEP and propose optimal scenarios to increase human reliability and decrease its related cost such as quality defect and rework cost. This study develops a DSS that calculates the HEP based work specifications and proposes optimal scenarios to deal with error occurrence probability. The scenarios are provided using an AHP according to experts' opinions about the cost and time of corrective actions. The proposed DSS has been applied to a real case, and the provided results show that the proposed DSS can provide effective scenarios to deal with human error in production systems.

Treatment of human and organizational factors for multi-unit HRA: Application of SPAR-H method

Human reliability analysis (HRA) refers to a method for evaluating human errors and providing human error probabilities for application in probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). Since the Fukushima accident, HRA has been considered an important issue in multi-unit PSAs. However, existing HRA methods generally focus on the analysis of human errors in single-unit PSAs, while HRA methods for the multi-unit PSA have not been well established. If an accident occurs that influences more than one unit, the human and organizational factors due to the formation of accident management organizations, the use of shared or mobile equipment, and the influence of a severe accident on another unit may have a crucial impact on the plant safety and the result of the PSA. Therefore, issues have been raised regarding the analysis and evaluation of the human and organizational factors in a multi-unit HRA.This study aims to develop an approach to treat the human and organizational factors for a multi-unit HRA on the basis of Standardized Plant Analysis Risk HRA (SPAR-H) method. This approach is applicable to level 1, 2, and 3 PSA. Firstly, six multi-unit task types were considered based on a previous study that identified and categorized human and organizational factors for multi-unit HRA. Secondly, a task analysis considering HRA event tree analysis, suggested by Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), and a timeline analysis were performed for six multi-unit task types. Thirdly, to identify the challenges of the existing SPAR-H method for multi-unit task types, an evaluation of the applicability of the existing SPAR-H method was conducted by qualitative and quantitative analyses. In addition, the dependence assessment approach suggested in the existing SPAR-H was also evaluated in terms of multi-unit situations. Lastly, by treating the multi-unit challenges identified in the previous section, methods to 1) analyze six multi-unit task types and 2) evaluate the dependence between the operator actions were suggested with some examples. The study is expected to contribute to the estimation and calculation of human error probabilities for applications in multi-unit PSAs.

Modelling of Convolutional Structures Focusing on Error Probability Calculation Via Matlab for Safety-Related Applications

Safety-related communication system SRComS uses a safety code for achieving the integrity of messages transferred between safety-related devices. In most cases, it is a block systematic code that uses syndromic decoding technique. The authors discuss the possibilities of using the convolutional structures for safety-related applications requiring creation of safety case based on quantitative assessment in relation to the transmission integrity level. This assessment is based on code analysis focused mainly on the error probability calculation. The results published in the practical part are obtained using a model created in Matlab environment, in which the chosen convolutional structures were tested. These tests were focused on the transmission error probability analysis provided by a binary symmetric channel, and also on optimization of other parameters affecting the residual error in the decoding algorithm. The results are generalized into concept of methodology for the convolutional codes safety assessment in compliance with standards for safety-related applications.

On the average of the product of two Gaussian Q functions over η − μ and κ − μ fading channels using MRC diversity reception

In this study, the authors propose a simple and tighter approximation to an integral representing the average of the product of two Gaussian Q functions over parametric η - μ and κ - μ fading channels. This facilitates the symbol error probability computation of most of the coherent digital modulation techniques over η - μ and κ - μ fading distributions. In order to improve the error performance of these digital modulation schemes, maximal-ratio combining (MRC) diversity reception is also employed. Moreover, since η - μ and κ - μ are generic fading scenarios, the widely used popular fading models like Rayleigh, one-sided Gaussian, Nakagami-m, Nakagami-q and Rician can be unified under one umbrella. This study also gives an insight of the asymptotic approximations of the proposed integrals. In addition, the analytical framework is validated with the help of Monte Carlo simulations, which enables an easy practical implementation of the proposed work.

Evaluating information security core human error causes (IS-CHEC) technique in public sector and comparison with the private sector

BackgroundThe number of reported public sector information security incidents has significantly increased recently including 22% related to the UK health sector. Over two thirds of these incidents pertain to human error, but despite this, there are limited published related works researching human error as it affects information security. MethodThis research conducts an empirical case study into the feasibility and implementation of the Information Security Core Human Error Causes (IS-CHEC) technique which is an information security adaptation of Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART). We analysed 12 months of reported information security incidents for a participating public sector organisation providing healthcare services and mapped them to the IS-CHEC technique. ResultsThe results show that the IS-CHEC technique is applicable to the field of information security but identified that the underpinning HEART human error probability calculations did not align to the recorded incidents. The paper then proposes adaptation of the IS-CHEC technique based on the feedback from users during the implementation. We then compared the results against those of a private sector organisation established using the same approach. ConclusionsThe research concluded that the proportion of human error is far higher than reported in current literature. The most common causes of human error within the participating public sector organisation were lack of time for error detection and correction, no obvious means of reversing an unintended action and people performing repetitious tasks.

Multi-position signal coherent reception error probability in a channel with generalized gamma or K fading and white noise

Introduction:One of the main problems in communication theory is giving definitions to such characteristics of an information transmission system as noise immunity (error probability) and transfer rate. Their knowledge allows you to determine the transmitted information quality and quantity, respectively. The calculation of the error probability for a communications channel (for example, with fading) allows you to estimate the loss or gain in noise immunity with modems of various signal designs.Purpose:Developing a technique for calculating the probability of a bit error with coherent reception of signals in a communication channel with additive white Gaussian noise and general (non-selective in terms of frequency) fading described by gamma distribution orKdistribution (called gamma fading andKfading respectively).Results:The obtained relations allow you to calculate the reception noise immunity in arbitrary twodimensional signaling designs for a communication channel with gamma orKfading and additive white Gaussian noise. Examples are given of bit error probability calculation for phase modulation and quadrature-amplitude modulation signals. The calculation of error probability in a channel with fading for two different distribution laws was reduced to a new special function which is an integral of the product of Tricomi function and an algebraic function. This allowed us to develop a universal mathematical approach valid for both variants of fading. To calculate the new special function introduced in the article and its representation through the known functions, we used both classical hypergeometric functions and a generalized hypergeometric functions of two variables which is Kampé de Fériet function.Practical relevance:When using multi-position signal structures in new telecommunication standards, this technique allows you to obtain an estimate of their potential noise immunity, objectively comparing signal constructions and correctly choosing the best options for new modem developer.

HEART-IS: A novel technique for evaluating human error-related information security incidents

Organisations continue to suffer information security incidents and breaches as a result of human error even though humans are recognised as the weakest link with regard to information security. Despite this level of understanding organisations continue to focus their attention on technical security controls rather than the human factor and have not incorporated methods such as Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) which are used within high reliability sectors such as rail, aviation and energy. The objectives of our research are to define a human error related information security incident and create the novel HEART of Information Security (HEART-IS) technique which is an adaptation of the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART). We conducted a case study within a private sector organisation using HEART-IS to establish if HRA is applicable to information security. The novel HEART-IS technique comprises of a mapping component and an analysis component. In the case study, we applied HEART-IS to map HEART Error Producing Conditions (EPC) to twelve months of reported information security incidents and analysed the volumes of human error and underlying causes. We found that HEART-IS is applicable to the information security field with some minor amendments to the terminology. The mapping of information security incident causes to the HEART Error Producing Conditions (EPC) was successful but the in-built HEART human error probability calculations did not match the actual volumes of reported human error related incidents.

Orbital Angular Momentum With Index Modulation

Orbital angular momentum (OAM)-based mode division multiplexing (MDM) is an emerging physical layer solution for short-distance line-of-sight wireless communications by providing high spectral efficiency with a considerably low detection complexity. Similarly, index modulation (IM) schemes have been extensively studied over the past few years due to their attractive features, such as improved error performance, low complexity, and high energy efficiency. In this paper, we propose the scheme of orbital angular momentum with index modulation (OAM-IM) by using the activated OAM modes themselves to carry additional information through the principle of IM. A general guideline is presented for the construction of optimal OAM-IM schemes along with the formulation of a low-complexity maximum likelihood detector. It is shown via computer simulations as well as theoretical bit error probability calculations that the proposed OAM-IM schemes can achieve considerably better error performance than the reference OAM-MDM schemes, while having the same level of detection complexity.