Buy Recommendations Research Articles

Non-professional versus professional investors’ trust in financial analysts’ recommendations and influences on investments

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate differences in non-professional and professional stock investors’ trust in and tendency to follow financial analysts’ buy and sell recommendations.Design/methodology/approachOnline experiment conducted in Sweden in March 2022 comparing non-professional private investors (n = 80), professional investors (n = 33), and master students in finance (n = 28). Information was presented about four company stocks listed on the New York stock exchange. Two stocks were buy-recommended and two stocks sell-recommended by financial analysts. For one stock of each type, the recommendation was presented to participants. Dependent variables were predictions of the stock price after three months, ratings of confidence in the predictions and choices of holding, buying or selling the stock. Ratings were also made of the importance of presented stock-related information as well as trust in analysts’ skill and integrity.FindingsMore positive return predictions were made of buy-recommended than sell-recommended stocks. Non-professionals and to some degree finance students tended to trust financial analysts more than professional investors did and they were more influenced by the presentation of the buy recommendations. All groups made too optimistic return predictions, but the professionals were less confident in their predictions, more likely to sell the stocks and lost less on their investments.Originality/valueA new finding is that non-professional stock investors are more likely than professional stock investors to trust financial analysts and follow their recommendations. It suggests that financial analysts’ recommendations influence non-professional investors to take unmotivated investment risks. Non-professionals in the stock market should hence be advised to exercise more caution in following analysts’ recommendations.

The Causality between Analysts’ Recommendations and Corporate M&As

Abstract This study examines the role of analysts' recommendations in mergers and acquisitions (M&As), focusing on their impact on payment methods and acquirers' long-term performance. The findings reveal that acquirers with strong buy or buy recommendations are more likely to use 100% stock payment, consistent with the overvaluation hypothesis. Conversely, those with strong sell or sell recommendations tend to prefer cash payment. Notably, acquirers with higher recommendation scores exhibit better long-term market performance. This finding suggests that analysts' recommendations before M&A announcements do not fully incorporate the deal's potential impact on long-term value creation. Moreover, acquirers with buy recommendations experience significantly lower long-term returns, highlighting the disconnect between analysts' recommendations and long-term performance. These findings contribute to understanding the information content and limitations of analysts' recommendations in the M&A context. JEL classification numbers: G34, G24, G14. Keywords: Mergers and acquisitions, Analysts' recommendations, Payment methods, Information quality, Overvaluation hypothesis.

The role of sustainability integration into the corporate strategy – A perspective on analysts’ perceptions and buy recommendations

Sustainability is playing an increasingly important role in analysts' assessments of companies. Companies can address this importance through a sustainability strategy by choosing between a sustainability strategy independent from the corporate strategy (standalone sustainability strategy) or integrating sustainability into their corporate strategy (integrated strategy). For this purpose, we investigate the effects of different stages of sustainability integration into the corporate strategy on analysts' perceptions and buy recommendations. Our results show that analysts favour an integrated strategy over a standalone sustainability strategy. This finding is reflected in higher analysts’ perceptions of an integrated strategy. While a standalone sustainability strategy leads to fewer buy recommendations, an integrated strategy does not affect buy recommendations. We discuss our findings in relation to stakeholder theory and voluntary disclosure theory. Our study contributes to understanding how analysts perceive different stages of integrating sustainability into the corporate strategy. This understanding is relevant as analysts work as intermediaries in the capital market between companies and investors.

Are Analyst “Top Picks” Informative?

Abstract Following the Global Settlement, analysts extensively use a top pick designation allowing for greater granularity of information among buy recommended stocks, but conflicts of interest can potentially influence this designation. Examining a novel sample of top picks, we find that a calendar-time portfolio of top picks generates an abnormal performance of 17.6% per year. Top picks have greater investment value than do buy recommendations and alternative analyst investment strategies. Both institutional and retail investors trade in response to top picks. However, only institutional investors appear to identify top picks that have greater investment value when they are announced.

Do informed REIT market participants respond to property sector mispricing?

ABSTRACT Sector mispricing represents the deviation of current and long-run sector fundamentals indicating either over- or undervaluation. We focus on the response of informed market participants to property sector mispricing in the context of equity REITs. We argue that REIT market participants such as institutional REIT investors and analysts have an informational advantage due to their access to commercial real estate market data. As a result, they are expected to respond to property sector mispricing. Using a sample of 2,637 firm-quarters of pure play equity REITs over the period of 1993 to 2020, we find that sector mispricing indeed impacts the decision-making of informed REIT market participants. The more overvalued (undervalued) a property sector is, the more institutional investors behave as net sellers (buyers) for REITs with the respective property type specialisation in the next quarter. Similarly, property sector overvaluation (undervaluation) results in lower (higher) net buy recommendations by analysts for REITs in the respective sector in the next quarter. However, our results are driven by smaller REITs and REITs with higher growth options. The sensitivity of institutional REIT investors and analysts to property sector mispricing also varies across different states of trading and recommendations respectively.

Market reaction to analyst forecasts by analysts with familyship: Evidence from South Korea

Using the surnames of financial analysts in Korea, this paper examines how investors react to forecasts of analysts with familyship. Since Korea has a strong family-centered culture of sharing the surname, it provides a suitable setting for examining whether investors incorporate analysts’ personal characteristics into their decision-making. This paper finds that stock recommendations by analysts with familyship elicit stronger market reactions. Additionally, the effect is only observed in the cases of upgrade, hold, and buy recommendations. Finally, the effect is observed only when the stock market was not in recession.

Will the reddit rebellion take you to the moon? Evidence from WallStreetBets.

In early 2021, several stocks receiving attention from retail traders known as “meme stocks” soared in value. A primary source of information regarding these stocks is from the social media platform Reddit, specifically from a subreddit known as WallStreetBets (WSB).This paper investigates whether a simple and easily implementable trading strategy following the WallStreetBets (WSB) subreddit can produce alpha. We document no evidence this is the case. Though we do observe a positive relation between WSB submissions and abnormal trading volume, we find that a portfolio that goes long buy recommendations and short sell recommendations each day is not profitable on a risk-adjusted basis. Holding periods from one day to one year fail to produce alpha. These findings are robust to a variety of different portfolio formation strategies. Our results provide an early look at the data following the explosion of interest in social media inspired retail investing.

THE IMPACT OF BUY – SELL RECOMMENDATIONS ON BANKS’ STOCK RETURNS

The aim of this research was to investigate the impact of stock buy-sell recommendations of brokerage houses on the stock returns of banks operating in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). Accordingly, it has been attempted to assess if investors can receive abnormal returns in accordance with the recommendations of brokerage houses using the case study technique. The validity of the semi-strong effective form of investors who made a buying-selling decision based on brokerage house recommendations was investigated. The returns of the banks' stocks were obtained from the data-stream database. The study evaluated buy-sell recommendations for four large brokerage houses and analyzed data from January 2018 through December 2020. The event study method was used, and t-test was performed in order to determine the difference of abnormal returns from zero in the research. As a result of the research, a negative abnormal return was determined on the day of the event and the day after the sell recommendation was given. Besides, a positive abnormal return was determined on the day before the announcement and on the day of the event in the bank stocks on which buy recommendation has been given. In this respect, the average abnormal and cumulative abnormal returns indicated that BIST was not an efficient market in a semi-strong form for the banking sector. When the sell recommendations and their effects are examined within the scope of the research, it is seen that the day before [-1] p=0.016 value was obtained, on the day, [0] p=0.018 value was obtained, the next day and two days later [+1, +2] p=0.077 and 0.046 values were obtained. On the other hand, when the buy recommendations and their effects are examined, it is seen that the day before [-1] p=0.000 and on the day [0] p=0.098 values were obtained. T-test results and p values show that brokerage house recommendations are effective on stock returns in the BIST banking sector, and therefore BIST banking sector is effective in a weak form. The obtained results of the study were crucial for investors who invested in short-term stocks.

Human Versus Machine: A Comparison of Robo-Analyst and Traditional Research Analyst Investment Recommendations

ABSTRACTWe provide the first comprehensive analysis of the properties of investment recommendations generated by “Robo-Analysts,” which are human analyst-assisted computer programs conducting automated research analysis. Our results indicate that Robo-Analyst recommendations differ from those produced by traditional “human” research analysts across several important dimensions. First, Robo-Analysts produce a more balanced distribution of buy, hold, and sell recommendations than do human analysts and are less likely to recommend “glamour” stocks and firms with prospective investment banking business. Second, automation allows Robo-Analysts to revise their recommendations more frequently than human analysts and incorporate information from complex periodic filings. Third, while Robo-Analysts' recommendations exhibit weak short-window return reactions, they have long-term investment value. Specifically, portfolios formed based on the buy recommendations of Robo-Analysts significantly outperform those of human analysts. Overall, our results suggest that automation in the sell-side research industry can benefit investors.JEL Classifications: G14; G24.

An investigation of how volatile financial analyst recommendations may affect managerial behaviour and financial reporting quality

This study investigates how the volatility in analyst buy recommendations in the UK may affect managerial behaviour. It examines whether the adoption of earnings manipulation and other opportunistic behaviours, such as managing the reporting tone of press releases, financial statement complexity and CEO overconfidence, may lead to volatile buy recommendations. This study shows that the use of earnings manipulation, especially when companies' current performance differs from the forecast, is likely to result in volatile buy recommendations. Volatile buy recommendations are linked to greater financial statement complexity and higher tonal disagreement between press releases and media articles. Analysts issue less buy recommendations when financial statements are complex or when overconfident CEO behaviour is reported. Companies with volatile buy recommendations are more likely to experience greater stock price crash risk, especially when accompanied by CEO overconfidence and tonal disagreement.

Yes, Virginia, there are Superstar Money Managers

Berk and Green (2004) argue that, in equilibrium, mutual fund performance is not informative about the skill of the fund managers. Hence, instead of studying mutual fund performance, we study stock recommendations of prominent money managers made at the prestigious Barron’s Roundtable. The 3,472 buy recommendations, from 1968 to 2019 (52 years), on average, earn economically meaningful and statistically significant 4.1% excess returns over the 30 trading days immediately following the Roundtable meetings. To study the skill level across decades, we divide the 52-year-long time-series into four equal 13-year-long periods and find that excess returns are similar for each of the four periods and are statistically significant. Overall, we conclude that money managers are skillful, and that skill has not diminished over the decades.

TV Financial Analyst Predictive Power: The Case of <i>Jim Cramer</i> of Mad Money

In this study, using a unique dataset collected by web-scraping (using Python Programming Language), we assess analyst predictive power and whether analyst experience is associated with predictive power by tracking Jim Cramer’s predictive power for future stock returns over a two-year period. We find that Jim Cramer’s accuracy may be limited to positive and buy recommendations. Additionally, we find that there is improvement in recommendation accuracy with increase in analyst experience. However, the improvements are concentrated in the positive and buy recommendations. Finally, the featured stock segment of Jim Cramer’s show seems to have the highest recommendation accuracy for both positive and negative recommendations.

Sell-side Analysts' Disagreement and Stock Prices

In this paper we test the hypothesis that sell recommendations are costlier than buy recommendations by carrying out cointegration analyses. We find that that analyst recommendations that plainly urge the investor to take action (buy, sell) are consistent with their estimated losses (gains). Importantly, we find that analysts react mildly to higher projected losses, and strongly to higher projected capital gains. Also, we find that higher projected losses are positively related to dispersion in analysts' recommendations. In summary, we find empirical evidence in favor of Womack's (1996) hypothesis that the cost of issuing a sell recommendation is greater than the cost of a buy recommendation.

Do Analysts Cater to Investor Beliefs? Evidence from Market Liberalization in China

We examine whether financial analysts cater to investors’ beliefs, using the market liberalization (Stock Connect) programs in China as a shock to investor beliefs. We find that analysts become less optimistic in their recommendations following the introduction of less optimistic investors through the Stock Connect programs. In addition, catering theory predicts that when investors hold heterogeneous beliefs, analysts tend to segment the market and slant toward extreme positions in order to attract target investors. Consistent with this prediction, we find that analyst dispersion increases in the post period. Moreover, analysts with buy or strong buy (sell or underperform) recommendations of a given firm become more optimistic (pessimistic) in their research report tone. Finally, we show that in updating their earnings forecasts, analysts are more (less) responsive to earnings surprises that are consistent (inconsistent) with their stock recommendations. Overall, this paper presents evidence supporting a catering theory for analyst bias.

Can the BH&J Buy vs. Rent Index Anticipate Housing Price Movements?

This paper investigates whether and to what extent the Beracha, Hardin, and Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index (BH&J Index) is able to anticipate future housing price movements. The BH&J Index is based on a model introduced by Beracha and Johnson (2012) in which a low index value is associated with a buy recommendation and a high index value is associated with a rent recommendation. The results of our analysis reveal a negative relation between the BH&J Index value and future housing price changes at the metropolitan level, which is consistent with the buy or rent recommendation of the index. The negative relation between the BH&J Index value and future housing price changes is statistically significant, economically meaningful, and is particularly relevant for medium-term holding periods.

Can Bitcoin Investors Profit from Buy, Hold, and Sell Recommendations by Crypto Analysts?

Using a hand-collected dataset containing buy, hold, and sell recommendations for Bitcoin published by crypto analysts, we show that hold and sell recommendations are followed by negative abnormal returns whereas buy recommendations are not associated with nonzero abnormal returns. Based on all outstanding recommendations, we compute recommendation changes relative to (i) the latest issued recommendation and (ii) the outstanding consensus recommendation. Downgrades are followed by negative abnormal returns. We conclude that crypto analysts are skilled information intermediaries on the Bitcoin market.

Out of Balance: Do Analysts Issue Sell Recommendations to Manage their Recommendation Distributions?

Using the passage of Global Settlement as an exogenous shock, we show that disclosure requirements about analysts’ recommendation distributions incentivize analysts to manage their recommendation distributions to reduce concerns about perceived objectivity. Following the regulation, analysts frequently issue sell recommendations concurrently with buy recommendations, consistent with recommendation distribution management. Analysts’ propensity to provide concurrent sell recommendations increases as recommendation distributions deviate from historical benchmarks and when public scrutiny and visibility is high. Importantly, we find no evidence of such behavior prior to Global Settlement suggesting unintended consequences associated with the regulation. This behavior has important implications for investors: sell recommendations issued concurrently with buy recommendations provide a weaker investment signal, as they exhibit muted return reactions and are less likely to be supported by downward earnings forecast revisions. Overall, our results highlight the importance of analysts’ distributional incentives in influencing the quality of recommendations.

The effectiveness of technical strategies in Malaysian Sharīʿah vs conventional stocks

PurposeThis study aims to investigate Malaysian stock market efficiency from the view of Sharīʿah-compliant and conventional stocks based on the effectiveness of technical trading strategies.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses unconventional trading strategies that mix buy recommendations of Bursa Malaysia analysts with sell signals generated from 10 selected technical trading strategies (simple moving average, moving average envelopes, Bollinger Bands, momentum, commodity channel index, relative strength index, stochastic, Williams percentage range, moving average convergence divergence oscillator and shooting star) that are detected using ChartNexus. The period from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2015 produces a total sample consisting of 1,265 buy recommendations of 125 Sharīʿah-compliant stocks and 400 buy recommendations of conventional stocks. The study period is extended until 31 March 2016 to provide an ample time for detecting the sell signal especially for buy recommendations that are released towards the end of 2015.FindingsThe resulting Jensen’s alpha show 8 out of 10 strategies are effective in generating abnormal returns in Sharīʿah-compliant samples while only 3 out of 10 strategies are effective in conventional samples. Prominent effectiveness of technical trading strategies in Sharīʿah-compliant stocks implies clear inefficiency in that stock market segment as opposed to those of the conventional stocks.Originality/valueThe results based on unconventional trading strategies provide new insights of Malaysian stock market efficiency especially in Sharīʿah-compliant and conventional stocks. The paper provides more robust findings on market efficiency as firms’ equity level data were focussed together with analysts’ buy recommendations from Bursa Malaysia.

Tea culture and industry: Customer tea buying decision‐making power shaped by social capital in the presence of mutual trust

This study contributes to the literature on tea culture and industry by examining the impact of social capital on customer perception which controls the decision to buy the tea products. Prior research suggests that individual cognition is the most essential element to target to achieve the required tea purchasing decision power. Individuals who socially connect and share views via social media are more likely to share a buy recommendation that psychologically inspires the buying decisions of customers. For present study data were collected through a structured questionnaire from 300 universities students usually use social media to get required information, knowledge and ask from other friends regarding product recommendation which is more trustworthy and easily accessible. The findings of the present study provide new insights into the development of the tea industry and encourage the use of tea products.

Analyst Recommendations and Stock Price Bubbles

ABSTRACTThis paper documents how analyst recommendations are related to periods of bubbles. We find a strong positive relation between the concentration in analyst buy recommendations and bubble continuation in two settings. First, we show a positive association between the concentration in buy recommendations and the tech bubble; the crash was associated with changes in buy recommendation concentration. Second, in an out-of-sample analysis of firms in multiple industries from 1994 to 2009, we show that analyst buy recommendation concentration predicts future return patterns that exhibit characteristics of a rational speculative bubble. While the evidence is not sufficient to conclude that analyst buy recommendations are the causal factor that perpetuates the mispricing, our findings suggest that, at a minimum, analysts do not act proactively to correct this form of mispricing in a timely manner.JEL Classifications: G10; G12; G14; G20.