Buy-and-hold Abnormal Returns Research Articles

The Rise of Finfluencers: A Digital Transformation in Investment Advice

The primary aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which finfluencers can be considered experts who fulfill the critical role of information intermediaries contributing to the efficiency of financial markets. To assess this, we assembled a manually collected dataset consisting of recommendations made by finfluencers. We conducted an event study to analyze both short-term and long-term effects on stocks. The findings reveal that, on average, all stocks examined during the event window [-10, +10] days exhibit a noteworthy Cumulative Abnormal Announcement Return (CAAR). The outcome suggests that, in the short term, finfluencers may not be deemed as experts. In contrast, the long-term Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) were positive and also statistically significant. Considering these results and the frequent absence of financial licenses among finfluencers, along with their tendency to endorse risky investments, we endorse SEBI's action in issuing a consultation paper (dated 25th August 2023) to regulate unregistered finfluencers. These measures are aimed at safeguarding inexperienced investors from taking undue risks and ensuring the integrity of financial markets.

Investor attention and IPO returns: evidence from Indian markets

PurposeThe regulatory design of Indian stock market provides us with the opportunity to disaggregate initial returns into two categories, i.e. voluntary premarket underpricing and post market mispricing. This study explores the impact of investor attention on the disaggregated short-run returns and long-run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs).Design/methodology/approachThe study employs regression techniques on the sample of IPOs listed from 2005 to 2019. It measures investor attention with the help of the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) extracted from Google Trends. Along with GSVI, the subscription rate is used as a proxy to measure investor attention.FindingsThe empirical results suggest a positive and significant relationship between initial returns and investor attention, thus validating the attention theory for Indian IPOs. Furthermore, when the returns are analysed for a more extended period using buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs), it was found that price reversal holds in the long run.Research limitations/implicationsThis study highlights the importance of information diffusion in the market. It emphasizes the behavioural tendency of the investors in the pre-market, which reduces the market efficiency. Hence, along with fundamentals, investor attention also plays an essential role in deciding the returns for an IPO.Originality/valueAccording to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies that has attempted to explore the influence of investor attention and its interplay with underpricing and long-run performance for IPOs of Indian markets.

Does consumer privacy act influence firm performance in the retail industry? Evidence from a US state-level law change

In recent years, US states have introduced or passed consumer privacy laws. We explore the passage (June 28, 2018) and enforcement (January 1, 2020) of the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) to ask whether such laws influence firm valuation. Based on organizational complexity and intangibility frameworks in the marketing literature, the law’s passage on June28,2018 did not have a meaningful stock market reaction in a sample of retail firms. Firms with higher intangibility or those with higher complexity and intangibility realized positive cumulative abnormal returns and Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR). The findings are consistent after controlling for the text-based measures of privacy agreements, alternative measures of intangibility, and other robustness checks. Using the January 1, 2020, enforcement date, there were no meaningful changes in bounce rates and traffic from desktops or mobiles. The findings carry implications for policy makers, practitioners, and consumers.

Can the market identify prosperous activist engagements? Evidence from announcement and long-term buy-and-hold returns

We document a discrepancy between abnormal announcement returns (CAARs) and two-year buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs) of activist engagements. Activist targets that earn the highest two-year BHARs yield, on average, only marginally higher CAARs than the other targets. This indicates that financial markets have difficulties to consistently distinguish between long-term top-performing engagements and other engagements at the announcement of an engagement. Even the best activists frequently suffer low or negative two-year BHARs. Long-term top-performing targets have significantly different firm characteristics than the other targets, which may help to increase the probability of selecting future top performing engagements. However, activists do not solely engage in such targets. We conclude that the long-term performance of target firms seems to be driven by a combination of target firm characteristics, investor skills, and potentially some luck, but provides only limited follow-on investment strategies for outside investors.

Reassessing the Long-Run Abnormal Performance of Jordanian IPOs: An Event Study Approach

Abstract This paper examines and reviews the fundamental challenges that academicians face when using the event study methodology to assess the long-term consequences of financial events on the economy and to describe market reactions. Numerous studies have demonstrated that businesses can experience abnormal returns from 1 to 5 years after major financial events. Also, this paper investigates the long-run price performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) in Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). The sample period expands from 2018 to 2022. Various findings are obtained by employing several analytical methods. First, long-run price performance of IPOs is negative, and a strong evidence shows that the long-run performance is sensitive to the benchmark employed. To assess the long-term performance of IPOs, I used both cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) as aggregated models. I explained the methodology which is adopted in this study in detail for the event–time approach. However, I used the crucial values for the skewness-adjusted t-statistic to infer statistical tests. Even though BHAR provided weaker results, all methods indicated negative long-run abnormal returns for IPOs. Yet this performance varied when comparing the performance utilizing ASEI, Fama–French three-factor (FF3F), and matching firm (MF) as benchmarks.

Statistical Analysis Dow Jones Stock Index—Cumulative Return Gap and Finite Difference Method

This study was motivated by the poor performance of the current models used in stock return forecasting and aimed to improve the accuracy of the existing models in forecasting future stock returns. The current literature largely assumes that the residual term used in the existing model is white noise and, as such, has no valuable information. We exploit the valuable information contained in the residuals of the models in the context of cumulative return and construct a new cumulative return gap (CRG) model to overcome the weaknesses of the traditional cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) models. To deal with the residual items of the prediction model and improving the prediction accuracy, we also lead the finite difference (FD) method into the autoregressive (AR) model and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The empirical results of the study show that the cumulative return (CR) model is better than the simple return model for stock return prediction. We found that the CRG model can improve prediction accuracy, the term of the residuals from the autoregressive analysis is very important in stock return prediction, and the FD model can improve prediction accuracy.

Emerging Stock Markets and Performance of IPOs: An Application to the Regional Stock Exchange (RSES)

The goal is to assess the short-term profitability of IPOs as well as the middle/long-term evolution of this profitability. As a result, we evaluated short-term performance using both raw and adjusted beginning returns. Cumulative abnormal returns and buy and-hold abnormal returns were used to calculate long-term performance, with abnormal returns adjusted for the market index and market model. We came to two primary findings by applying those methodologies to the eleven (11) IPOs that took place on the RSES between September 16th, 1998 and December 31st, 2011. To begin, our data demonstrate that RSES IPOs had a large initial undervaluation throughout this time time, and that the modification of early market index returns had a negative influence on them. Then, in the medium/long run, holding these companies results in underperformance relative to the market portfolio. However, the long-term performance with buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs) is less deteriorated than the one with cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Those results imply that, buying IPOs at the offer price is profitable to investors in the short run and the holding of those stocks in the middle and long run must be done through the buy-and-hold investment strategy.

Emerging Stock Markets and Performance of IPOs: An Application to the Regional Stock Exchange (RSES)

The aim is to determine the short-term profitability of IPOs and to surrounding the evolution of this profitability on the middle/long run. Therefore, we used the raw initial returns and the adjusted initial returns methods to assess the short-term performance. We determined the long-term performance through the cumulative abnormal returns and the buy-and-hold abnormal returns, abnormal returns being adjusted to the market index and to the market model. By applying those methods to the eleven (11) IPOs’ made on the RSES from September 16th 1998 to December 31st 2011, we drawn two main conclusions. First of all, our results reveal that RSES’s IPOs present a great initial underpricing during this period and that, the adjustment of initial returns to market index negatively affected them. Then, the holding of these stocks on the middle/long run lead to their underperformance compared to the market portfolio. However, the long-term performance with buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs) is less deteriorated than the one with cumulative abnormal returns (CARs). Those results imply that, buying IPOs at the offer price is profitable to investors in the short run and the holding of those stocks in the middle and long run must be done through the buy-and-hold investment strategy.

Fresh look or false advertising: Modeling of investor attention based on corporate name changes

Using the renaming of companies in the Chinese market, where managers are more likely to take advantage of cosmetic effects in an attempt to influence investors, we find that, during the announcement period, the stock price and trading activities both react positively to renaming, especially when it is for image improvement reasons. However, in the long run, renaming has negative BHARs (buy and hold abnormal returns). Over time, the market and investors overreact less to renaming. Companies with problematic financial performance and negative media coverage are more inclined to change their name. We offer new and more detailed evidence to support the rational pricing hypothesis, rather than the investor mania hypothesis.

Limits of arbitrage and mispricing: evidence from mergers and acquisitions

PurposeThis paper examines the extent to which noise demand and limits of arbitrage affect the pricing of acquirer stocks both at the announcement period and over the longer horizon.Design/methodology/approachAn event study approach was adopted to measure announcement-period cumulative abnormal returns. Long-horizon returns are measured using buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs), calendar time portfolios (CTPRs), and subsequent earnings announcement period abnormal returns. Main methodologies include ordinary least squared (OLS) regressions, Logit regressions, and portfolio analysis.Findings(1) Acquirer stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility (the proxy for the security level characteristic most directly associated with limits to arbitrage) earn higher announcement-period abnormal returns. (2) The return pattern reverses over the subsequent longer horizon, resembling news-driven transitory mispricing. (3) The mispricing is greater when deal and firm characteristics exacerbate the limits of arbitrage, and it weakens over time. (4) Transactions by higher idiosyncratic volatility acquirers are more likely to fail.Originality/valueLimits of arbitrage theory have been tested mostly in information-free circumstances. The findings in this paper extend the supporting evidence for limits of arbitrage explaining mispricing beyond the boundaries of information-free circumstances.

IPO Intra Industry Effects on Peer Firm's Earnings, Composition and Stock Returns

The present study is conducted to see how an IPO event affects the existing firm's performance within the same industry. For this purpose, 88 IPO firms were examined from Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from 1998-2016. IPO is examined from three major perspectives IPO proceeds, initial returns and time Lag between IPO listing date and IPO subscription. The study uses Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) to calculate competitor's abnormal returns. To calculate the operating performance of competitors, the Wilcoxon significance test was applied. IPO intra-industry effects are significant in the long run, whereas insignificant results are shown in the short run. In addition, IPO proceeds and abnormal returns are significant but negatively related to competitors' stock returns (long term). Moreover, Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI) finds IPO improves competitiveness in the industry environment. This present study is an important one from an emerging economy perspective.

Spatial tale of G-7 and BRICS stock markets during COVID-19: An event study

The unprecedented outbreak of COVID-19 has affected every aspect of the human life, be it health, social, or economic dimensions. The anxiety and uncertainty wobbled the economies of affected countries worldwide. This study attempts to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the performance of major stock markets of G-7 nations vis-à-vis BRICS nations. An event study methodology is employed to capture the effect of the systematic event in the form of Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) and Average Buy and Hold Abnormal Returns (ABHAR). The study considers a 90-day observation window, consisting of six sub-event windows after the COVID-19 news up-doves the world, and 120 days prior to the selected event date to estimate average expected returns. BHAR values in the four event windows are statistically significant, covering stock markets from panic and nosedive to their correction and recovery. ABHAR values reported are significantly negative in the event window ranging from –0.15% to –38.43% for G-7 and –0.06% to –37.12% for BRICS nations. Despite similar ABHAR trends, the BHAR values and correlation matrix exhibit a diverse reaction in BRICS nations compared to the highly synchronized reaction in the G-7 group of nations in the COVID period.

Impact of information on winners' curse and long run performance of initial public offerings

AbstractThe current research focuses on the short run and long run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) during 2005–2012. The study evaluates the impact of informational variables (both internal and external) on the first day returns. The performances have been measured through market adjusted excess return (MAER) and buy and hold abnormal returns (BHAR). A structural equation model (SEM) has been designed to identify how information affects the short run performance of IPOs. The results reveal that new issues are underpriced thereby proving winners' curse hypothesis. The study highlights that the informational variables have a significant effect on first day returns. The results also indicate that the average long run returns are negative. The results of this study will assist global investors in decision making and will facilitate active participation of these investors in IPOs in emerging markets like India.

Institutional investors and post-ICO performance: an empirical analysis of investor returns in initial coin offerings (ICOs)

We examine the role of institutional investors in initial coin offerings (ICOs). Taking a financial investor's perspective, we assess the determinants of post-ICO performance via buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR) in a sample of 565 ICO ventures. Conceptually, we argue that institutional investors' superior screening (selection effect) and coaching abilities (treatment effect) enable them to partly overcome the information asymmetry of the ICO context and extract informational rents from their ICO investments. We find that institutional investor backing is indeed associated with higher post-ICO performance. Disentangling selection and treatment effects econometrically, we find that both of these effects explain the positive impact institutional investors have on post-ICO performance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of institutional investors in the ICO context.

Impact of mergers and acquisitions on shareholders' wealth: a study of Telecom sector of Pakistan

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the impact of mergers and acquisitions related events on the shareholders\' wealth in Telecom sector of Pakistan. Statistical analysis: Event study methodology has been used to achieve this objective, in which, the short term and long term performance of firms are measured. For short term performance, Abnormal Returns (AR) and Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) are measured while to determine long term performance, Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR) are measured. Findings: The results revealed that the occurrence of these events has negatively affected the shareholders\' wealth and the financial market did not respond to these events in the telecom sector of Pakistan. Application: The study suggests that the telecom sector should choose different strategies to gain market share, to increase revenues, to gain a competitive edge and to diversify risk. Keywords: Mergers; acquisitions; event study; abnormal returns; cumulative abnormal returns; buy-and-hold abnormal returns

Statutory corporate tax change and the stock market returns: the global experience

ABSTRACT This study offers a global perspective on the relationship between statutory corporate tax changes and country equity index returns for 54 countries for 2002–2017. Using fixed-effect models for country-effect to account for possible omitted country characteristics, we report higher world-adjusted buy and hold abnormal returns (BHARs) for the country-years with higher corporate tax cuts. Noticeably, we document this outcome for not only the year before the actual tax change but also the year afterwards, indicating that investors might not fully or quickly integrate tax change information. The results hold after excluding the 2008 global financial crisis. Dividing the sample based on market development, we report similar results for emerging and frontier markets, but the tax cut effect becomes insignificant for the one-year window after the tax change in developed markets, indicating a lesser degree of market underreaction.

A post-merger performance of acquiring firms: evidence from French stock market

This paper investigates the impact of takeovers on the short- and long-run stock market performance of a sample of 87 mergers and acquisitions transactions undertaken between 2008–2012 by French financial and real estate industry. For the short horizon event studies, document short-run non-significant abnormal returns of acquiring companies. Furthermore, we test the financial performance by computing the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), the buy and hold abnormal returns (BHAR) and the Jensen measure (alpha) to study long horizon of up to 60 months, as part of the calendar analysis, and 36 months in the event approach. The results show negative and significant long-term abnormal returns on acquiring companies either on event time or in calendar analysis for different horizons.

The Relationship between Technology Life Cycle and Korean Stock Market Performance

Through the three industrial revolutions, technology has enabled rapid changes in society. In a capitalist society, capital is invested where there is utility, for example, economic benefit. We intend to determine that the stock price of a company that uses a particular technology will change with the life cycle of the technology in question. Specifically, we filtered companies that mainly deal with augmented reality and are listed in Korea’s KOSDAQ market. We grouped these companies based on detailed technologies that constitute augmented reality. We used the event study method to calculate the stock returns against a benchmark. As a result, in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” stage, the portfolios of all companies using augmented reality generally show higher returns than the benchmark. However, it is difficult to ascertain whether a return generated based on one of the detailed technologies that make up augmented reality is higher or lower than that of the benchmark. During the “Trough of Disillusionment” phase, there was neither a consistent trend of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) nor buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHAR). However, during this stage, there was a positive correlation of average BHAR and average abnormal returns between the entire sample’s portfolio and each detailed technology firm’s portfolio.

Hedge fund variables and short-run SEO returns

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine if hedge fund variables (HFVs) are associated with short-run daily buy and hold abnormal returns (BHARs) for a 30-day window around announcement dates for seasoned equity offerings (SEOs).Design/methodology/approachThis paper utilizes the event study metric that computes BHARs. These BHARs are used in a regression model as dependent variables with HFVs and nonhedge fund variables (NFVs) as independent variables. For regression tests, standard errors are clustered at the month level.FindingsThis paper offers three new findings. First, HFVs are significantly associated with SEO BHARs. Second, HFVs are capable being associated with stronger statistical significance compared to NFVs. Third, not using HFVs can produce an omitted-variable bias.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper does not have information on which individual hedge funds use a strategy during the month of the offering but only the proportion of hedge funds that do. A research implication is the proportion can be associated with SEO BHARs in a fashion predicted based on a long or short position.Practical implicationsHedge funds can use trading strategies to capitalize on established patterns of price behavior.Social implicationsHedge funds enjoy a trading advantage over smaller investors.Originality/valueThis paper is the first study to document the association between hedge fund stratagems and stock returns around a major corporate event. It shows researchers should consider institutional trading strategies when studying the market response to a major corporate event.

Market Performance of Sponsor-Backed Initial Public Offerings: An Empirical Analysis of the German Market

<p><em>This paper investigates the overall market performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in Germany, by analyzing the short and long run performance of IPOs, utilizing the data from 2000-2013. Furthermore the study aims to distinguish and compare the performance of sponsor backed IPOs to non-sponsor backed IPOs, by placing a special focus on the value creating abilities of financial sponsors. The examined data set consists of 286 IPOs out of which 46 can be considered as IPOs which were backed by financial sponsor. The study suggests that, on average, IPOs significantly underperform their benchmarks. Furthermore, the evidence implies significant differences across the IPO groups with regard to performance and operational indicators. The multivariate regression shows that in the long run, private equity firms outperform their counterparts, signified by greater buy-and hold abnormal returns respectively recorded within the three-year period after the IPO. </em></p>