Bushfire Management Research Articles

Radiocarbon ageing of Indigenous culturally‐significant trees for bushfire management on Minjerribah (North Stradbroke Island), southeast Queensland

SummaryPartnerships between Indigenous People and governments for joint management of ancestral lands, designated as protected conservation areas for biodiversity and cultural heritage, provide an opportunity to leverage accumulated traditional land management knowledge with emerging science. In Australia, veteran or large old trees in natural landscapes are of significant ecological importance, and among the Indigenous communities, they are living monuments to historical cultural practices, but their survival, endurance and long lives are rarely acknowledged to afford them protection. In sub‐tropical Australia, the lack of consistent annual growth rings in stem wood makes it difficult to estimate the age of large trees using methods such as the periodic diameter increment. Ngugi et al., 2020 published radiocarbon (14C) dates using wood core (‘pith‐wood’) samples from 12 Indigenous culturally‐significant trees covering five species on Minjerribah (North Stradbroke Island). Due to the imprecise calendar age results of the single samples used in the original study (Ngugi et al., 2020), subsequent radiocarbon dating of an additional three wood core samples from each tree was undertaken to age the trees more precisely. The revised tree ages ranged from 63 to 531 years and suggest an important role of past Indigenous land management practices into protecting Bugari (Cypress Pine, Callitris columellaris F. Muell.) from deadly crown scorching fires. These results underscore the importance of incorporating Indigenous practices in current fire management strategies and plans. Estimating tree ages based on the periodic diameter increment method overestimated the age relative to that derived from radiocarbon dating. New bias correction factors were developed for adjusting the recorded periodic tree diameter increments.

A fast, physically based model of firebrand transport by bushfire plumes

Spotfires are a major problem in bushfire management, greatly complicate suppression efforts, and contribute to fires breaking control lines. Firebrands are often implicated in structure loss, and in extreme circumstances have been observed to ignite new fires over 30km ahead of the parent fire. Existing prediction techniques do not accommodate the problem of such long-range spotting, and the meteorological and fire conditions that lead to such events are not well understood. We present a computationally inexpensive, physically based model of ember transport within bushfire plumes, with four components: an integral plume model, a model of turbulence within the plume, a probabilistic model of ember transport by the plume, and a model of transport beneath the plume. The predicted ember landing distributions from this model compare satisfactorily to the explicit ember-transport calculations of Thurston et al. (2017) and to observations (Cruz et al., 2012). We examine the sensitivity of the simple model to its input parameters. The 90th percentile of spotting distance increases with increasing fire power and decreases with increasing ember terminal fall velocity and fire radius. Where there is a meteorological inversion or stable layer and the plume updraft is sufficiently strong to carry embers to that height, the stable layer substantially limits the transport distance, with increased height favoring longer-range transport. The effect of wind speed is complex, due to the competing factors of faster horizontal transport but suppressed vertical plume development with stronger winds.

Bushfire Management Strategies: Current Practice, Technological Advancement and Challenges

Bushfires are classified as catastrophic disasters capable of inflicting significant destruction. The key detrimental consequences of bushfires include the loss of human lives, trauma within communities, economic losses and environmental damage. For example, the estimated economic loss from the September 2019 to March 2020 bushfires in New South Wales (Australia) was about AUD 110 billion, including more than 3000 burned houses. There has been a notable increase in both the frequency and intensity of bushfires, as clearly demonstrated by recent bushfire events. Bushfires are an intricate phenomenon that transpires across various spatial and temporal scales. Further, the changing circumstances of landscapes, vegetation patterns, weather conditions and ecosystems account for the complexity. Therefore, continual attention is essential for the development of bushfire management strategies. In this context, this paper undertakes a comprehensive literature review of bushfire management strategies, encompassing aspects such as bushfire prediction, detection, suppression and prevention. Based on the review, a bushfire management framework is proposed that can eliminate or successfully mitigate the consequences of bushfires. Further, the paper delves into the domains of fire weather conditions, the initiation of bushfires and the adverse consequences stemming from these fires. Both terrestrial and aerial remote sensing methods have proven to be effective in predicting and detecting bushfires. Nevertheless, a simple unique solution cannot be proposed for bushfire management. Changing weather conditions, topography and the geographic mix of asset types need to be considered when deciding on bushfire management strategies and their breadth and depth of application.

Bushfire and Biodiversity Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: A Community-Led Values-Based Bushfire Risk Management Project with Multi-Agency Support to Develop Strategies to Protect Biodiversity and Manage Bushfire in Upper Beaconsfield, Victoria, Australia

Introduction:This Australian-first project explored residents’ values about living in one of Australia’s extreme bushfire risk areas. The project team developed the Upper Beaconsfield Bushfire and Biodiversity Tool (UPB&BT) which delivers tailored local information for residents living in the area. Designed to empower residents to make informed decisions, this user-friendly, online tool visualizes a community’s devastating bushfire history, reveals residents’ values about living in this area, and provides evidence-based actions to protect biodiversity and manage bushfire fuels on private property.Method:Structured decision-making methodology informed the survey design to elicit residents’ values about biodiversity protection and bushfire risk reduction, by inviting approximately 3000 residents to complete the survey. This community-led project applied a participatory approach by inviting collaboration between government, agencies, universities, and community representatives.Results:Key results revealed 75% of respondents valued nature and lifestyle. 51% saw bushfire risk as an important factor for managing vegetation on private land, while 65% either mow or slash to manage vegetation. Synthesized data informed the content of the UPB&BT, which sourced evidence-based knowledge or specialists’ expertise to provide tailored content and actions that met residents’ diverse values. This included the consequences of chosen actions, which helps residents understand the impact of their decisions. However, results identified confusion in roles and responsibilities.Conclusion:This ground-breaking community-led, government-funded project joined with government, agencies, universities, and community representatives to develop a new bushfire and biodiversity tool to help residents understand biodiversity protection and bushfire management in their local community. Results aim to empower residents to make their own evidence-based and informed choices about managing their properties, thereby contributing to the community good. They decide what is important and identify available actions and their potential consequences. Other communities could replicate this process to localize their own disaster risk reduction strategies.

Geography: Do we advocate enough for the discipline and profession in terms of public policy?

Geography: Do we advocate enough for the discipline and profession in terms of public policy?

Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Bushfire Management: Challenges and Opportunities

The intensity and frequency of bushfires have increased significantly, destroying property and living species in recent years. Presently, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology advancements are becoming increasingly popular in bushfire management systems because of their fundamental characteristics, such as manoeuvrability, autonomy, ease of deployment, and low cost. UAVs with remote-sensing capabilities are used with artificial intelligence, machine learning, and deep-learning algorithms to detect fire regions, make predictions, make decisions, and optimize fire-monitoring tasks. Moreover, UAVs equipped with various advanced sensors, including LIDAR, visual, infrared (IR), and monocular cameras, have been used to monitor bushfires due to their potential to provide new approaches and research opportunities. This review focuses on the use of UAVs in bushfire management for fire detection, fire prediction, autonomous navigation, obstacle avoidance, and search and rescue to improve the accuracy of fire prediction and minimize their impacts on people and nature. The objective of this paper is to provide valuable information on various UAV-based bushfire management systems and machine-learning approaches to predict and effectively respond to bushfires in inaccessible areas using intelligent autonomous UAVs. This paper aims to assemble information about the use of UAVs in bushfire management and to examine the benefits and limitations of existing techniques of UAVs related to bushfire handling. However, we conclude that, despite the potential benefits of UAVs for bushfire management, there are shortcomings in accuracy, and solutions need to be optimized for effective bushfire management.

Evaluating Skill of the Keetch–Byram Drought Index, Vapour Pressure Deficit and Water Potential for Determining Bushfire Potential in Jamaica

Bushfire management which incorporates fire potential indices is still in its infancy in Jamaica and the Caribbean. In this study three bushfire potential indices—Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) and Water Potential (Ψw)—are calculated for south-central Jamaica where bushfire frequencies are highest. The skills of the indices are evaluated using their representation of the normalised bushfire climatology, monthly and seasonal (December–March/DJFM; April–June/AMJ; July–August/JA and September–November/SON) fire variability for the periods 2013–2017, 2010–2019 and 2001–2019. Fire data are obtained from the MODIS C6 Archive and Jamaica Fire Brigade (JFB). The relationship between the fire indices and large-scale oceanic and atmospheric features are also examined. The results suggest that Ψw exhibits strong correlations with the MODIS and JFB climatologies and represents well the maxima in March and July and the local minima in May–June and October. Ψw and VPDI also show good hit rates for moderate and high-risk categories in south-central Jamaica (though with relatively high false alarm rates). Regression models premised on Ψw and VPD respectively show good skill in representing AMJ (R2 = 57–58%), SON (R2 = 57–58%) and JA (R2 = 57–60%) fire variability. Variability during DJFM is poorly captured by any fire index. Although the KBDI represents the normalised climatology reasonably well its peaks occur one month later, that is, in April and August. KBDI exhibits strong and statistically significant correlations with JFB and MODIS climatologies, but seasonal models premised on KBDI do not perform as well as for the other two indices except in JA. All indices had a statistically significant relationship on both monthly and 1 month lag time scales for NINO3 and TNA-NINO3 large-scale climate indices. The indices, and in particular Ψw, show good prospects for producing seasonal bushfire outlooks for south-central Jamaica and Jamaica in general. These results also suggest the usefulness of monitoring large-scale oceanic patterns as part of the monitoring framework for bushfires in the island.

Broadening academia: an epistemic shift towards relationality

ABSTRACT In this article, we present a critical reflection on the academy’s approach to knowledge production and dissemination in Australian universities and propose a paradigm shift towards an approach that actively promotes Indigenous knowledges within the academic canon and searches for complementarity and shared interests between Indigenous and Western epistemes. We begin this article with discussion of the role of the academy, and Western and Indigenous discourses around knowledge. From there we discuss contemporary issues of bushfire management and the Juukan Gorge destruction as illustrations to make a case for the role of the academy in engaging with knowledges that arise outside Western paradigms; and translating those knowledges to diverse audiences. Finally, we examine obstacles that must be addressed in a robust academic pursuit of epistemological synergy. Issues of knowledge ownership, epistemological and methodological challenges, and neo-colonialism are discussed as critical aspects of all collaboration towards knowledge integration.

Remote Sensing and Meteorological Data Fusion in Predicting Bushfire Severity: A Case Study from Victoria, Australia

The extent and severity of bushfires in a landscape are largely governed by meteorological conditions. An accurate understanding of the interactions of meteorological variables and fire behaviour in the landscape is very complex, yet possible. In exploring such understanding, we used 2693 high-confidence active fire points recorded by a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor for nine different bushfires that occurred in Victoria between 1 January 2009 and 31 March 2009. These fires include the Black Saturday Bushfires of 7 February 2009, one of the worst bushfires in Australian history. For each fire point, 62 different meteorological parameters of bushfire time were extracted from Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resolution Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA) data. These remote sensing and meteorological datasets were fused and further processed in assessing their relative importance using four different tree-based ensemble machine learning models, namely, Random Forest (RF), Fuzzy Forest (FF), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Google Earth Engine (GEE) and Landsat images were used in deriving the response variable–Relative Difference Normalised Burn Ratio (RdNBR), which was selected by comparing its performance against Difference Normalised Burn Ratio (dNBR). Our findings demonstrate that the FF algorithm utilising the Weighted Gene Coexpression Network Analysis (WGCNA) method has the best predictive performance of 96.50%, assessed against 10-fold cross-validation. The result shows that the relative influence of the variables on bushfire severity is in the following order: (1) soil moisture, (2) soil temperature, (3) air pressure, (4) air temperature, (5) vertical wind, and (6) relative humidity. This highlights the importance of soil meteorology in bushfire severity analysis, often excluded in bushfire severity research. Further, this study provides a scientific basis for choosing a subset of meteorological variables for bushfire severity prediction depending on their relative importance. The optimal subset of high-ranked variables is extremely useful in constructing simplified and computationally efficient surrogate models, which can be particularly useful for the rapid assessment of bushfire severity for operational bushfire management and effective mitigation efforts.

Changing bushfire management practices to incorporate diverse values of the public

Practice change is essential if environmental agencies are to incorporate diverse values in decision making, but little is currently known about what constrains or enables such change. Over a 19-month period, we observed how environmental professionals responded to an agency request that they consider a wider range of values in strategic bushfire management planning than had been considered in past practice. Through participant observation, interviews and document analysis, we examined how practices did and did not change and what contributed to these outcomes. Practices for assessing well understood values (e.g. towns and houses, ecological resilience) were refined, while practices for handling less familiar values (e.g. animal welfare, economic values and Indigenous cultural heritage) were either maintained, adapted or transformed, with outcomes varying across values and regions. The findings partly confirm expected biases toward values that can be spatially located and quantified, and point to other conditions supporting change to incorporate new types of values: alignment between policy and planning guidance, alignment between a value and priorities of professionals and agencies involved in planning, collaboration that supported input from cross-agency actors, and scope for experimentation. We discuss the practical implications of these findings for agencies seeking to incorporate values in environmental planning.

Relationships to Bushfire among Residents Who Do Not Typically Participate in Community Engagement in Victoria, Australia

There are calls to consider the views of the diverse public in bushfire policy, planning, and management, yet those who do not typically participate in social research and/or government community engagement activities are generally under-represented. A mixed method research design was used, including a survey, intercept and in-depth interviews to study a diversity of views. Concepts of social values, knowledge and practices were drawn on first to examine participants’ relationship to bushfire and second to discuss bushfire engagement. We identified and analyzed three relationships to bushfire: Irrelevant to me; Terror at my door; A rural concern. Participants’ values were more focused on people, pets, and special things than in earlier research and they generally perceived bushfire as solely a domain for experts. There is an opportunity to find ways to resonate with their values and relationships to bushfire, and to shape bushfire research and practice.

Potentialité des données satellitaires Sentinel-2 pour la cartographie de l’impact des feux de végétation en Afrique tropicale : application au Togo

Le réchauffement climatique est un phénomène d’envergure mondiale qui se répercute sur le système climatique. Une des conséquences du réchauffement climatique est l'extension de la période de sécheresse, favorisant ainsi l’augmentation des fréquences du phénomène des feux de végétation. Les feux incontrôlés perturbent l’écologie et la fonctionnalité des écosystèmes, entraînant parfois leur érosion. La présente étude est une contribution pour la gestion des feux de végétation au Togo et porte sur le suivi spatial pour la saison des feux 2018-2019. Elle explore la potentialité des nouvelles données satellitaires Sentinel-2 (S-2) en accès libre dans la gamme de la télédétection optique pour la détection des surfaces brûlées, la cartographie des feux utilitaires et des feux incontrôlés. Elle teste également la performance de la méthode de cartographie des feux de végétation à partir de l’indice NBR (Normalized Burn Ratio) initialement conçue pour les images Landsat et évalue la biomasse végétale brûlée. Les résultats révèlent que les images S-2 présentent du potentiel dans la restitution des surfaces brûlées. La performance de la méthode de l’indice NBR sur les images S-2 est satisfaisante. La cartographie des feux de végétation montre que les feux utilitaires représentent 21,75 % contre 78,25 % pour les feux incontrôlés. L’ensemble des feux de végétation enregistrés a occasionné l’incendie de 5 878 km2 du couvert végétal, soit 10,39 % du territoire national. Le couvert végétal brûlé est composé majoritairement de savanes (33,12 %), de cultures et jachères (24,48 %), de plantations (14,59 %), de forêts claires (14,43 %) et de forêts riveraines (13,02 %). Les résultats obtenus constituent des éléments tangibles pour le suivi, la sensibilisation, l’élaboration des plans d’aménagement, de prévention et de gestion des feux.

Strengthening sustainability initiatives: a case for repositioning Australian Indigenous communities as dominant stakeholders in managing bushfire risks

ABSTRACT This study examines the role of market orientation, privacy, and stakeholder theory in enhancing the effectiveness of current sustainability efforts for managing bushfire risks by proposing a novel conceptual framework entitled ‘Stakeholder Repositioning Strategy (SRS).’ Adopting a case study approach, we describe the SRS framework as a driving force behind shifting the Australian Indigenous community’s present position from a marginal (minimal effort) to a dominant position (key player) in bushfire mitigation. We build our framework based on the Johnson and Mendelow matrices and advocate for a sustainable solution utilizing Indigenous cultural burning practices to better manage bushfire crises, Australian ecology, communities, and the economy. The paper supports the need for Indigenous communities to proactively consult with government agencies to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into national bushfire management policies.

Implications of artificial intelligence for bushfire management

A country’s history and development can be shaped by its natural environment and the hazards it faces. As a response to the threat of novel and unexpected bushfire disasters, scholars and practitioners have turned to the area of artificial intelligence. This paper explores the underlying principles of artificial intelligence tools and to investigate how these tools have been used to mitigate the risks of catastrophic bushfires. In doing so, this research provides an overview of applications of artificial intelligence tools to enhance effective management of bushfires through preparedness capability, responding capability and recovery capability. The future evolution of tools in artificial intelligence is discussed in the bushfire management context based on emerging trends.

Disaster Risk Reduction in Bushfire Prone Areas: Challenges for an Integrated Land Use Planning Policy Regime

The need for an integrated approach to disaster risk reduction (DRR) is widely promoted across the contemporary disaster literature and policy discourse. In Australia, the importance of integrating bushfire management and land use planning systems is a growing priority as bushfire risk in urbanized areas increases. This paper examines the changing policy landscape towards an integrated DRR regime for land use planning and bushfire management in south-west Western Australia. The research is based on a qualitative analysis of policy documents and in-depth interviews with policy actors associated with this regime. The results identify several challenges of policy integration for an integrated land use planning and bushfire management DRR regime, including incompatible worldviews, sectorial objectives and knowledge sets. A lack of cross-sectoral understanding, different risk tolerances and instrument preferences also constrained integration efforts. Based on our findings, we argue that rule-based mechanisms, which establish a legal framework for integration, are necessary when different policy goals and worldviews prevail between policy sectors. However, we conclude by emphasizing the value of actor-based mechanisms for integrated DRR policy regimes, which enable ongoing cross-sectoral communication and policy learning and facilitate a systems-oriented perspective of disaster resilience in the built environment.

Ageing culturally significant relic trees in southeast Queensland to support bushfire management strategies

SummaryAppropriate fire management strategies are needed to protect forests and large old ecologically and culturally significant trees in natural landscapes. The aim of this study was to determine the age of large old and relic trees of cultural significance that included Cypress Pine (Callitris columellaris F. Muell.), a species that is sensitive to crown scorching fires in a fire‐prone landscape, and to calibrate a tree‐growth‐rate method for estimating tree age. Twelve large trees were dated using radiocarbon (14C) dating. The trees are located on North Stradbroke Island (Indigenous name: Minjerribah), southeast Queensland (Australia) in a fire‐prone landscape where recent wildfires have destroyed many large trees. The median tree ages ranged from 155 to 369 years. These results suggest an important role of past Indigenous land management practices in protecting Cypress Pine from crown scorching fires. The tree‐growth‐rate‐based method for estimating tree age generally overestimated the age derived from radiocarbon dating. Bias correction factors were developed for correcting various measures of periodic growth rates. This study provides evidence that appropriate low‐intensity fire strategies have the potential to contribute to the survival of forests and conserve large old trees.

The development and validation of the bushfire psychological preparedness scale

In Australia and many other bushfire-prone countries, at-risk residents are encouraged to share the responsibility of bushfire management by preparing themselves physically and psychologically for bushfires [1]. However, to date, much of the focus of the research and bushfire community education is on physical preparedness, leaving much confusion about what it means to be psychologically prepared. This is in part due to the lack of a well-accepted operational definition and measure of bushfire psychological preparedness. Currently, there is one measure of psychological preparedness, based on stress inoculation theory, which shows relatively strong psychometric properties. However, findings from our systematic review suggest an alternative theoretical approach to defining psychological preparedness i.e. cognitive appraisal and psychological resources that enable people to manage their emotional responses to stress. To the authors' knowledge, no measure has been developed that operationally defines psychological preparedness using the latter theoretical approach. To fill this gap, and to extend the research on psychological preparedness for natural hazards, we have developed the Bushfire Psychological Preparedness Scale (BPPS). The aim of this study was to provide a preliminary analysis of the psychometric properties of the BPPS. Following rigorous testing, the resulting scale was a 33-item self-report tool, which meets the most important criteria for satisfactory reliability and validity. In its current format, this tool can be used by anyone with psychological knowledge seeking to understand the psychological preparedness of an individual for a bushfire. With adjustments and consultation with fire agencies, a user-friendly version can be developed for public use.

Applying social research: How research knowledge is shaped and changed for use in a bushfire management organisation

Experience in applying research suggests that new knowledge requires development and change before it can be applied in everyday settings, but there has been little examination of how this occurs. Through two case studies of new knowledge about social values being developed for a bushfire agency in Victoria, Australia, we follow how pre-existing social research findings about “valued attributes” are shaped and changed as they were applied in two different organisational activities of planning guidance and community engagement. We form a conceptual framework of reduction and amplification, stretching, re-articulation, and crystallisation to observe how the social research findings were drawn on, modified, and incorporated into the future directions of the organisation. In finding that the social research was stretched and crystallised differently in the two case studies, we consider how organisational context and relationships influence how social research findings are shaped and changed. We consider implications for theory and practice in fostering integration between academic research and real-world application.

Fuzzy boundaries: Simulation and expertise in bushfire prediction.

It is becoming apparent that changes in climatic and demographic distributions are increasing the frequency and social impact of many 'natural hazards', including wildfires (or 'bushfires' in Australia). Across many national contexts, the governmental agencies legally responsible for 'managing' such hazards been called upon to provide greater foresight into the potential consequences, occurrence and behaviour of these dynamic phenomena. These conditions, of growing occurrence and expectation, have given rise to new anticipatory regimes, tools, practitioners and expertise tasked with revealing near and distant fiery futures. Drawing on interviews with Fire Behaviour Analysts from across the fire-prone continent of Australia, this article examines how their expertise has emerged and become institutionalized, exploring how its embedding in bushfire management agencies reveals cultural boundaries and tensions. This article provides important insight into the human and nonhuman infrastructures enrolled in predicting and managing landscape fires, foregrounding the wider social and political implications of these infrastructures and how their 'fuzzy boundaries' are negotiated by practitioners. Such empirical studies of expertise in practice are also, we suggest, necessary to the continued refinement of existing critiques of expertise as an individual capacity, derived from science and serving established social orders.

Communities and responsibility: Narratives of place-identity in Australian bushfire landscapes

This research explores the complex interplay among (a) landscape and social memory, (b) the construction of place-identity, and (c) notions of responsibility sharing in hazard preparedness and response. Our aims are to (a) establish greater clarity about the gap between social responses to technologically driven risk management strategies favoured by governments and agencies within the context of Australian bushfire management policies and practices, and (b) provide insight into the practical implications of policies espousing greater community involvement in readiness for bushfire, and shared responsibility between communities and governments. Case study based ethnographic research involves communities in rural, peri-urban and remote Australia. We find that maintaining a sense of place-identity in the face of economic rationalist government-at-a-distance may be of greater urgency to communities than planning for possible bushfire threat. Community imperatives to retain control over local social and landscape memory and narratives may result in push-back against well-intentioned outsider agency interventions aimed at promoting greater community awareness and preparedness. Within the entanglement of landscape, remembering and everyday social practices – the taskscape – there is fluidity between individual place-identity and the ways social memory is (re)constructed to make sense of emergent events and support imagined community futures. We conclude that a consequence for land and fire management agencies is to recognise the importance of framing community engagement around the ways each community functions within and as part of its landscape, rather than a singular focus on potential bushfire impacts.