Burden Of Influenza Research Articles

Influenza Vaccination, Household Composition, and Race-Based Differences in Influenza Incidence: An Agent-Based Modeling Study.

Objectives. To estimate the effect of influenza vaccination disparities. Methods. We compared symptomatic influenza cases between Black and White races in 2 scenarios: (1) race- and age-specific vaccination coverage and (2) equal vaccination coverage. We also compared differences in household composition between races. We used the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics, an agent-based model that assigns US Census‒based age, race, households, and geographic location to agents (individual people), in US counties of varying racial and age composition. Results. Influenza cases were highest in counties with higher proportions of children. Cases were up to 30% higher in Black agents with both race-based and race-equal vaccination coverage. Compared with corresponding categories of White households, cases in Black households without children were lower and with children were higher. Conclusions. Racial disparities in influenza cases persisted after equalizing vaccination coverage. The proportion of children in the population contributed to the number of influenza cases regardless of race. Differences in household composition may provide insight into racial differences and offer an opportunity to improve vaccination coverage to reduce influenza burden for both races. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print November 14, 2024:e1-e8. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307878).

Preventing Influenza Virus Infection and Severe Influenza Among Pregnant People and Infants.

The landscape of research on the benefits of influenza vaccines and antivirals to protect pregnant persons and infants has increased in recent years, while influenza vaccination rates and antiviral usage have declined. Pregnant people and infants <6 months of age are at increased risk of hospitalization with influenza, making protection of this population essential. Maternal influenza vaccination at any time during pregnancy is the best way to reduce the risk of influenza and severe influenza in both pregnant people and their infants <6 months of age. Influenza antiviral medications for pregnant people and infants are also recommended as early as possible if influenza is confirmed or suspected. This report will update on the current research on the benefits of influenza vaccination during pregnancy and influenza antiviral medication for the pregnant person and infant, current Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations for influenza vaccination in pregnancy and vaccination coverage rates, current influenza antiviral medication guidance and usage rates in pregnancy and among infants, and future directions for influenza pregnancy research. With over half a century of maternal influenza vaccination in the United States, we have improved protection for pregnant persons and infants against influenza, but we still have room for improvement and optimization with new challenges to overcome following the COVID-19 pandemic. By continuing to fill research gaps and increase vaccination coverage and antiviral usage, there is potential for significant reductions in the domestic and global burden of influenza in pregnant persons and infants.

Systematic Review on Influenza Burden in Emerging Markets in 2018–2023—An Evidence Update to Guide Influenza Vaccination Recommendations

Background: Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness responsible for seasonal epidemics and with potential to cause pandemics. The decline in influenza-related studies published since 2018 resulted in data gaps, particularly in emerging markets. Methods: This systematic review searched for studies in six databases and gray literature sources to define the clinical burden of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILIs) and their associated sequelae among humans across emerging markets. Eligible studies were published in English, Spanish, or Chinese between January 2018 and September 2023 and conducted in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Results: In total, 256 articles were included, mostly on lab-confirmed influenza infections (n = 218). Incidences of lab-confirmed influenza cases in Asia (range 540–1279 cases/100,000 persons) and Sub-Saharan Africa (range 34,100–47,800 cases/100,000 persons) were higher compared to Latin America (range 0.7–112 cases/100,000 persons) and the Middle East and North Africa (range 0.1–10 cases/100,000 persons). Proportions of lab-confirmed influenza cases and influenza-associated outcomes (i.e., hospitalization, ICU admission and death) varied widely across regions. Temporal variation in influenza trend was observed before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: In conclusion, influenza causes significant disease burden in emerging markets. Robust large real-world studies using a similar methodology are needed to have more accurate estimates and compare studies within age groups and regions. Continuous monitoring of influenza epidemiology is important to inform vaccine programs in emerging markets with heavy influenza disease burden.

The Burden of Seasonal Influenza and Its Potential Complications Among Older Japanese Adults: A Real-World Database Study.

Seasonal influenza may lead to severe complications, including respiratory and cardiovascular disease, that result in considerable healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and mortality, particularly in older individuals. This real-world study assessed the burden of influenza and its potential complications in older Japanese adults. This retrospective claims database analysis (April 2015 to June 2019) included insured individuals aged ≥ 60 years at the start of four consecutive influenza seasons in Japan (October 1 to April 30). The primary endpoint was the incidence of influenza-related emergency room (ER) and outpatient visits, the incidence of hospitalizations, the probability of 30-day inpatient mortality, and 60-day medical costs of influenza or its potential complications. Of 8,974,708 individuals (43.2% male, mean ± standard deviation age 73.8 ± 8.9 years), 370,430 (4.13%) were diagnosed with influenza. Overall, 17.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.32-18.04) and 3893.53 (3880.87-3906.19) per 100,000 individuals had influenza-related ER and outpatient visits, respectively, and 181.50 (178.71-184.28) per 100,000 individuals were hospitalized for influenza. The incidence of influenza-related ER visits and hospitalizations for influenza or potential complications and the probability of 30-day inpatient mortality increased with age. Seasonal influenza and its potential complications represent a substantial burden that increases with age in Japanese individuals.

Nrf2 Regulates Inflammation by Modulating Dendritic Cell-T Cell Crosstalk during Viral-Bacterial Superinfection.

Every year millions of people are infected with influenza, which can be complicated by secondary bacterial pneumonia. One factor that may contribute to increased susceptibility to secondary bacterial infection is the modulation of inflammatory cytokines. NF erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) has been shown to be a master regulator of the antioxidant response and various inflammatory cytokines. To test the role of Nrf2 during viral-bacterial superinfection, we used a mouse model of influenza-Staphylococcus aureus superinfection with wild-type (WT) or Nrf2-deficient (Nrf2-/-) mice. Loss of Nrf2 reduced influenza burden and increased S. aureus burden during superinfection. Additionally, Nrf2-/- mice had increased abundance of conventional type 1 dendritic cells (DCs). We then tested the interaction between DCs and T cells using an invitro model of bone marrow-derived DCs with OVA and OT-II T cells. In this system, Nrf2-/- DCs promoted a Th2/regulatory T cell response as opposed to a Th1/Th17 response by WT DCs. This was recapitulated invivo with superinfected Nrf2-/- mice having increased regulatory T cell populations. We also observed an increased median survival time of Nrf2-/- superinfected mice, due at least in part to increased IL-10 signaling, as anti-IL-10R Ab treatment reduced median survival time to levels seen in WT mice. Overall, these data suggest that loss of Nrf2 promotes differential T cell skewing mediated by DCs that promote a regulatory phenotype, increasing superinfection survival time, despite increased bacterial burden.

Prospects of universal influenza virus vaccine and the current challenges of new antiviral drugs

The profound impact of influenza viruses on human health persists as a significant burden, given their potent capacity to cause morbidity and mortality. Despite efforts to mitigate the annual burden of influenza, the effectiveness of current seasonal vaccines in providing substantial protection falls short, leaving undesirable pandemic of influenza viruses. The challenges posed by the influenza pandemic lies from the constant changes inherent in the virus itself, as well as the limitations of current immunization approaches in achieving sufficient immunogenicity. Influenza viruses exhibit antigenic drift and shift, undergoing antigenic evolution by altering the surface glycoproteins. These changes contribute to the persistent and dynamic nature of the influenza virus, posing formidable challenges to effective prevention and control strategies. Currently, there is growing recognition of unique viral targets that hold promise development of broad-protective vaccines against influenza. These targets are distinct from traditional vaccine targets and offer the potential for more comprehension protection against diverse strains of the virus. Here, we present a review about the novel drugs and vaccines that target the influenza virus would signify the unique immune correlates of protection that need to be initiated to accelerate the vaccine efficacy.

Out of focus but still relevant? Influenza-related resource utilization and vaccination coverage gaps in adults below 60 years of age with underlying conditions: an analysis of 2016–2024 real-world data in Germany

Background In 2003, the WHO aimed for a 75% or higher influenza vaccination rate among at-risk populations. However, this target was achieved in a few groups during selected seasons in some European countries, and never in Germany. Adults with underlying conditions (UCs) are a critical negleted group for influenza vaccination. This study aimed to identify data gaps in influenza burden and vaccination coverage among adults under 60 with UCs in Germany and bridge these gaps using real-world data. Material and methods We conducted systematic research and analyses using German administrative and claims databases from June 2016 to April 2024. We report on epidemiology, direct care costs, indirect costs from work incapacity, vaccination coverage rates, and describe data gaps. Results Influenza data for high-risk populations are limited. Comprehensive data on influenza epidemiology and vaccination coverage rates (VCR) is available, though with a delay in data availability. Before and after the pandemic, individuals aged 50-59 had the highest rates of influenza-related hospitalization and ICU admission compared to younger age groups. Across all age groups and seasons, individuals with UC experienced higher rates of medically attended influenza cases, hospitalizations, and healthcare costs, with those aged 35–59 being particularly vulnerable. Vaccine coverage was higher in adults aged 35–59 compared to those aged 18–24, and in females compared to males. Limitations Discrepancies of vaccination status, limited data availability, and variations among the extent of UCs. Conclusion In Germany, recent policy measures have mainly targeted those aged 60 and above. While this elderly population experiences the highest disease-related impact, influenza can also lead to substantial healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and costs in younger populations with chronic UCs; Facilitating vaccination access for this group, such as through pharmacies, is essential. Definition of quantifiable vaccination targets and measures to increase vaccination rates based on these targets are required.

Characterizing the seasonal influenza disease burden attributable to climate variability: A nationwide time-series modelling study in Japan, 2000−2019

BackgroundAmbient temperature and humidity are established environmental stressors with regard to influenza infections; however, mapping disease burden is difficult owing to the complexities of the underlying associations and differences in vulnerable population distributions. In this study, we aimed to quantify the burden of influenza attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity in Japan considering geographical differences in vulnerability. MethodsThe exposure−lag−response relationships between influenza incidence, ambient temperature, and absolute humidity in all 47 Japanese prefectures for 2000−2019 were quantified using a distributed lag non-linear model for each prefecture; the estimates from all the prefectures were then pooled using a multivariate mixed-effects meta-regression model to derive nationwide average associations. Association between prefecture-specific indicators and the risk were also examined. Attributable risks were estimated for non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity according to the exposure−lag−response relationships obtained before. ResultsA total of 25,596,525 influenza cases were reported during the study period. Cold and dry conditions significantly increased influenza incidence risk. Compared with the minimum incidence weekly mean ambient temperature (29.8 °C) and the minimum incidence weekly mean absolute humidity (20.2 g/m3), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) of influenza in cold (2.5 °C) and dry (3.6 g/m3) conditions were 2.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.78−4.37) and 3.20 (95% CI: 2.37−4.31), respectively. The higher RRs for cold and dry conditions were associated with geographical and climatic indicators corresponding to the central and northern prefectures; demographic, socioeconomic, and health resources indicators showed no clear trends. Finally, 27.25% (95% empirical CI [eCI]: 5.54−36.35) and 32.35% (95% eCI: 22.39−37.87) of all cases were attributable to non-optimal ambient temperature and absolute humidity (6,976,300 [95% eCI: 1,420,068−9,306,128] and 8,280,981 [95% eCI: 8,280,981−9,693,532] cases), respectively. ConclusionsThese findings could help identify the most vulnerable populations in Japan and design adaptation policies to reduce the attributable burden of influenza due to climate variability.

Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality and Hospitalization in Germany from 1996 to 2018.

Influenza-associated excess mortality and morbidity is commonly estimated using statistical methods. In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) uses the relative mortality distribution method (RMDM) to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality without reporting age-specific values. In order to better differentiate the distribution of the disease burden, a distinction by age is of high relevance. Therefore, we aimed to revise the existing excess mortality model and provide age-specific excess mortality estimates over multiple seasons. We also used the model to determine influenza-associated excess hospitalizations, since the RKI excess hospitalization model is currently based on another approach (i.e., combination of excess physician visits and hospitalized proportion). This study was a retrospective data analysis based on secondary data of the German population from 1996-2018. We adapted the RKI's method of estimating influenza-associated excess mortality with the RMDM and also applied this approach to excess hospitalizations. We calculated the number of excess deaths/hospitalizations using weekly and age-specific data. Data available in Germany are suitable for addressing the restrictions of the RKI's mortality model. In total, we estimated 175,858 (176,482 with age stratification) influenza-associated excess all cause deaths between 1995-1996 and 2017-2018 ranging from 0 (17 with age stratification) in 2005-2006 to 25,599 (25,527 with age stratification) in 2017-2018. Total influenza-associated excess deaths were comparable to RKI's estimates in most seasons. Most excess deaths/hospitalizations occurred in patients aged≥60 years (95.42%/57.49%) followed by those aged 35-59years (3,80%/24,98%). Compared with our model, the RKI hospitalization model implies a substantial underestimation of excess hospitalizations (828,090 vs. 374,200 over all seasons). This is the first study that provides age-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality in Germany. The results clearly show that the main burden of influenza is in the elderly, for whom prevention and control measures should be prioritized.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Hospital Admissions and Deaths in Wales: Descriptive National Time Series Analysis.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing implementation of control measures caused widespread societal disruption. These disruptions may also have affected community transmission and seasonal circulation patterns of endemic respiratory viruses. We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related disruption on influenza-related emergency hospital admissions and deaths in Wales in the first 2 years of the pandemic. A descriptive analysis of influenza activity was conducted using anonymized pathology, hospitalization, and mortality data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The annual incidence of emergency hospitalizations and deaths with influenza-specific diagnosis codes between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, was estimated. Case definitions of emergency hospitalization and death required laboratory confirmation with a polymerase chain reaction test. Trends of admissions and deaths were analyzed monthly and yearly. We conducted 2 sensitivity analyses by extending case definitions to include acute respiratory illnesses with a positive influenza test and by limiting admissions to those with influenza as the primary diagnosis. We also examined yearly influenza testing trends to understand changes in testing behavior during the pandemic. We studied a population of 3,235,883 Welsh residents in 2020 with a median age of 42.5 (IQR 22.9-61.0) years. Influenza testing in Wales increased notably in the last 2 months of 2020, and particularly in 2021 to 39,720 per 100,000 people, compared to the prepandemic levels (1343 in 2019). The percentage of influenza admissions matched to an influenza polymerase chain reaction test increased from 74.8% (1890/2526) in 2019 to 85.2% (98/115) in 2021. However, admissions with a positive test per 100,000 population decreased from 17.0 in 2019 to 2.7 and 0.6 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Similarly, deaths due to influenza with a positive influenza test per 100,000 population decreased from 0.4 in 2019 to 0.0 in 2020 and 2021. Sensitivity analyses showed similar patterns of decreasing influenza admissions and deaths in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 were associated with a substantial reduction in the transmission of the influenza virus, with associated substantial reductions in hospital cases and deaths observed. Beyond the pandemic context, consideration should be given to the role of nonpharmaceutical community-driven interventions to reduce the burden of influenza.

Retrospective Comparison of Influenza and COVID-19-Associated Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS): An Experience From a Tertiary Care Hospital.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on global healthcare systems, often compared to seasonal influenza due to similarities in clinical presentation. This study aims to compare the clinical characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 and those with influenza admitted to a tertiary care hospital in Islamabad, Pakistan. Methods This retrospective cohort study included 120 patients, 60 with confirmed COVID-19 and 60 with confirmed influenza, all of whom required ICU admission and mechanical ventilation between January 1, 2021, and January 1, 2024. Data were collected from electronic medical records, including demographic information, comorbidities, and clinical outcomes. Descriptive statistics were used to compare the two groups. Results The median age of COVID-19 patients was 55 years (range 30-78), while that of influenza patients was 58 years (range 31-80). Both groups had a slight male predominance (COVID-19: 66.7%, Influenza: 63.3%). Comorbidities were common in both groups, with 75.0% of COVID-19 patients and 83.3% of influenza patients having at least one comorbidity. The most common comorbidities included hypertension (COVID-19: 30.0%, Influenza: 33.3%) and diabetes (COVID-19: 20.0%, Influenza: 25.0%). Clinical outcomes revealed a higher mortality rate among influenza patients (43.3%) compared to COVID-19 patients (28.3%). ICU admission rates were identical for both groups at 66.7%, and mechanical ventilation was required for 66.7% of ICU-admitted patients in both groups. The presence of cardiovascular comorbidities significantly impacted patient outcomes, with higher mortality observed in influenza patients with such comorbidities (44.7%) compared to COVID-19 patients (28.9%). Conclusion This study highlights the significant burden of both COVID-19 and influenza on critically ill patients, particularly those with cardiovascular comorbidities. While influenza patients in this cohort exhibited higher mortality rates, both groups demonstrated substantial ICU admission rates and a need for mechanical ventilation.

Evaluation of an influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance system in South Korea, 2017-2023

BackgroundGuided by the data from the surveillance system, public health efforts have contributed to reducing the burden of influenza in many countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many surveillance resources were directed at tracking the severe acute respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus 2. However, most countries have not reported surveillance evaluations during the COVID-19 pandemic. MethodsUsing the U.S. CDC surveillance evaluation method, we evaluated the influenza-like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance performance in South Korea between January 2017 and September 2023. For the timeliness, we measured the mean time lag between the reports from the sentinel sites to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) and surveillance result dissemination from KDCA. For the completeness, we measured the submission rate of complete reports per overall number of reports from each sentinel site to the KDCA. For the sensitivity, we calculated the correlation coefficient between the monthly number of ILI reports and the patients with ILI from the Korea national reimbursement data by either Pearson’s or Spearman’s test. For the representativeness, we compared the age-specific distribution of ILI between the surveillance data and the national reimbursement data using a chi-squared test. ResultsWe found that the surveillance performance of timeliness (less than 2 weeks) and completeness (97 %−98 %) was stable during the study period. However, we found a reduced surveillance sensitivity (correlation coefficient: 0.73 in 2020, and 0.84 in 2021) compared to that of 2017–2019 (0.96–0.99), and it recovered in 2022–2023 (0.93–0.97). We found no statistical difference across the proportion of age groups between the surveillance and reimbursement data during the study period (all P-values > 0.05). ConclusionsOngoing surveillance performance monitoring is necessary to maintain efficient policy decision-making for the control of the influenza epidemic. Additional research is needed to assess the overall influenza surveillance system including laboratory and hospital-based surveillance in the country.

Effectiveness of annual influenza campaigns and vaccination in reducing influenza burden in nursing homes of Canton Vaud in Switzerland

BackgroundInfluenza infections pose significant risks for nursing home (NH) residents. Our aim was to evaluate the impact of the cantonal influenza campaign, and influenza vaccination coverage of residents and healthcare workers (HCWs) on influenza burden in NHs in a context of enhanced infection prevention and control measures (IPC) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.MethodsWe extracted data from epidemic reports provided by our unit to NHs over two consecutive winter seasons (2021-22 and 2022-23) and used linear regression to assess the impact of resident and HCW vaccination coverage, and participation in the campaign, on residents’ cumulative influenza incidence and mortality.ResultsThirty-six NHs reported 155 influenza cases and 21 deaths during the two winter seasons corresponding to 6.2% of infected residents and a case fatality ratio of 13.5%. Median vaccination coverage was 83% for residents, 25.8% for HCWs, while 87% of NHs participated in the campaign. Resident vaccination was significantly associated with a decrease in odds of death (odds ratio (OR) 0.96, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93–0.99). There was no significant effect of HCW vaccination coverage on resident infections and deaths. Campaign participation was associated with decreased odds of infection and death among residents (OR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.06–0.47 and OR: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.02–0.17 respectively).ConclusionOur analysis suggests that in a context of reinforced IPC measures, influenza still represents a significant burden for NH residents. The most effective measures in decreasing resident influenza burden in NHs was participation in the cantonal influenza vaccination campaign and resident vaccination.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in WHO-defined high-risk populations in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh. We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386. The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained. Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

Enhancing cross-protection against influenza by heterologous sequential immunization with mRNA LNP and protein nanoparticle vaccines

Enhancing influenza vaccine cross-protection is imperative to alleviate the significant public health burden of influenza. Heterologous sequential immunization may synergize diverse vaccine formulations and routes to improve vaccine potency and breadth. Here we investigate the effects of immunization strategies on the generation of cross-protective immune responses in female Balb/c mice, utilizing mRNA lipid nanoparticle (LNP) and protein-based PHC nanoparticle vaccines targeting influenza hemagglutinin. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of priming vaccination in shaping Th bias and immunodominance hierarchies. mRNA LNP prime favors Th1-leaning responses, while PHC prime elicits Th2-skewing responses. We demonstrate that cellular and mucosal immune responses are pivotal correlates of cross-protection against influenza. Notably, intranasal PHC immunization outperforms its intramuscular counterpart in inducing mucosal immunity and conferring cross-protection. Sequential mRNA LNP prime and intranasal PHC boost demonstrate optimal cross-protection against antigenically drifted and shifted influenza strains. Our study offers valuable insights into tailoring immunization strategies to optimize influenza vaccine effectiveness.

EE130 Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza in Mainland China from 2011 to 2019

EE130 Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza in Mainland China from 2011 to 2019

The Hospital Burden of Flu in Italy: a retrospective study on administrative data from season 2014–2015 to 2018–2019

BackgroundEvery year in Italy, influenza affects about 4 million people. Almost 5% of them are hospitalised. During peak illness, enormous pressure is placed on healthcare and economic systems. This study aims to quantify the clinical and economic burden of severe influenza during 5 epidemic seasons (2014–2019) from administrative claims data.MethodsPatients hospitalized with a diagnosis of influenza between October 2014, and April 2019, were analyzed. Clinical characteristics and administrative information were retrieved from health-related Administrative Databases (ADs) of 4 Italian Local Health Units (LHUs). The date of first admission was set as the Index Date (ID). A follow-up period of six months after ID was considered to account for complications and re-hospitalizations, while a lookback period (2 years before ID) was set to assess the prevalence of underlying comorbidities.ResultsOut of 2,333 patients with severe influenza, 44.1% were adults ≥ 65, and 25.6% young individuals aged 0–17. 46.8% had comorbidities (i.e., were at risk), mainly cardiovascular and metabolic diseases (45.3%), and chronic conditions (24.7%). The highest hospitalization rates were among the elderly (≥ 75) and the young individuals (0–17), and were 37.6 and 19.5/100,000 inhabitants/year, respectively. The average hospital stay was 8 days (IQR: 14 − 4). It was higher for older individuals (≥ 65 years, 11 days, [17 − 6]) and for those with comorbidities (9 days, [16 − 6]), p-value < 0.001. Similarly, mortality was higher in elderly and those at risk (p-value < 0.001). Respiratory complications occurred in 12.7% of patients, and cardiovascular disorders in 5.9%. Total influenza-related costs were €9.7 million with hospitalization accounting for 95% of them. 47.3% of hospitalization costs were associated with individuals ≥ 65 and 52.9% with patients at risk. The average hospitalisation cost per patient was € 4,007.ConclusionsThis retrospective study showed that during the 2014–2019 influenza seasons in Italy, individuals of extreme ages and those with pre-existing medical conditions, were more likely to be hospitalized with severe influenza. Together with complications and ageing, they worsen patient’s outcome and may lead to a prolonged hospitalization, thus increasing healthcare utilization and costs. Our data generate real-world evidence on the burden of influenza, useful to inform public health decision-making.

How Does the Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Compare to Influenza in Spanish Adults?

ABSTRACTBackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza infections cause significant annual morbidity and mortality worldwide in at‐risk populations. This study is aimed at assessing hospital burden and healthcare resource utilization (HRU) of RSV and influenza in adults in Spain.MethodsData were obtained from the Projected Hospitalisation Database of inpatient episodes (ages: younger adults 18–50 and 51–64 years; older adults 65–74, 75–84, and ≥ 85 years) during 2015, 2017, and 2018 in Spanish public hospitals. Incidence, mean hospitalization, and HRU assessments, including length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit (ICU) usage, and age‐standardized mortality rates, were collected and stratified by age group, with analyses focusing on the adult population (≥ 18 years old).ResultsMean hospitalization rate in the population across all years was lower in individuals with RSV versus influenza (7.2/100,000 vs. 49.7/100,000 individuals). ICU admissions and median LOS were similar by age group for both viruses. Age‐standardized mortality was 6.3/100,000 individuals and 6.1/100,000 individuals in patients with RSV and influenza, respectively, and mortality rates were similar in older adults (≥ 65 years) for both viruses.ConclusionsRSV and influenza infection were associated with considerable HRU. There is a substantial disease burden for RSV infection in older adults ≥ 65 years. While RSV hospitalization rates in adults reported here appeared lower than influenza, RSV is still underdiagnosed in the hospital setting and its incidence might be similar to, or higher than, influenza.

Convolutional LSTM–LSTM model for predicting the daily number of influenza patients in South Korea using satellite images

ObjectivesInfluenza affects a considerable proportion of the global population each year, and meteorological conditions may have a significant impact on its transmission. In this study, we aimed to develop a prediction model for the number of influenza patients at the national level using satellite images and provide a basis for predicting influenza through satellite image data. Study designWe developed an influenza incidence prediction model using satellite images and influenza patient data. MethodsWe collected satellite images and daily influenza patient data from July 2014 to June 2019 and developed a convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM)–LSTM neural network model. The model with the lowest average of mean absolute error (MAE) was selected. ResultsThe final model showed a high correlation between the predicted and actual number of influenza patients, with an average MAE of 5.9010 per million population. The model performed best with a 2-week time sequence. ConclusionsWe developed a national-level prediction model using satellite images to predict influenza incidence. The model offers the advantage of nationwide analysis. These results may reduce the burden of influenza by enabling timely public health interventions.

Global pattern and determinant for interaction of seasonal influenza viruses

BackgroundThe prevalence of different types/subtypes varies across seasons and countries for seasonal influenza viruses, indicating underlying interactions between types/subtypes. The global interaction patterns and determinants for seasonal influenza types/subtypes need to be explored. MethodsInfluenza epidemiological surveillance data, as well as multidimensional data that include population-related, environment-related, and virus-related factors from 55 countries worldwide were used to explore type/subtype interactions based on Spearman correlation coefficient. The machine learning method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and interpretable framework SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) were utilized to quantify contributing factors and their effects on interactions among influenza types/subtypes. Additionally, causal relationships between types/subtypes were also explored based on Convergent Cross-mapping (CCM). ResultsA consistent globally negative correlation exists between influenza A/H3N2 and A/H1N1. Meanwhile, interactions between influenza A (A/H3N2, A/H1N1) and B show significant differences across countries, primarily influenced by population-related factors. Influenza A has a stronger driving force than influenza B, and A/H3N2 has a stronger driving force than A/H1N1. ConclusionThe research elucidated the globally complex and heterogeneous interaction patterns among influenza type/subtypes, identifying key factors shaping their interactions. This sheds light on better seasonal influenza prediction and model construction, informing targeted prevention strategies and ultimately reducing the global burden of seasonal influenza.