Bundles Of Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Investigating Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies: The Need for Correlations and Driving Factors in the Upper Fen River Basin of Shanxi Province, China

This research provides an overview of the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services (ESs) within the upper Fen River Basin (uFRB) that are crucial for informed land management and regional ecological protection. We utilized methodologies, including the dynamic equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation analysis, to track ES and driving factors from 1990 to 2020. This study revealed a 13.27% increase in overall ES value, with notable growth in forest land and water areas. Initially, synergies were dominant, but trade-offs became evident over time, particularly with food production. This study identified road proximity and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as primary drivers of ES values, with their impact evolving annually. The analysis also highlighted the importance of considering the temporal dynamics in ES relationships and the influence of driving factors on these services. We propose incorporating socio-ecological factors and ES bundles into spatial planning. This is crucial as it will allow us to optimize multi-ES objectives, thus balancing trade-offs and enhancing synergies for sustainable land use.

Spatiotemporal changes and management measure to enhance ecosystem services in the Mongolian Plateau

The eco-environment in many underdeveloped areas is vulnerable. Elucidating the changes and relationships in ecosystem services (ESs) is a fundamental basis for achieving sustainable development in these regions. Utilizing multiple data sources and models, we quantified water provision (WP), habitat quality (HQ), carbon fixation (CF), soil conservation (SC), and wind erosion prevention (WEP) on the Mongolian plateau during 1992-2018. We then analyzed the spatial-temporal changes, trade-offs/synergies, and bundles relationship of these ESs. The results indicated there was high spatial variability in five ESs across the plateau, with overall higher ESs in forested areas, and grassland and cropland areas had higher WEP values. The annual mean values of WP, HQ, CF, SC, and WEP in the plateau during 1992-2018 were 27.15 mm, 0.57, 176.17 gC·m2, 48.83 t·hm2, and 58.31 t·hm2, respectively. Due to fluctuations in precipitation, vegetation cover and land use, the five ESs decreased from 1992 to 2000s, but increased from 2000s to 2018, Notably, the HQ changed most significantly (p<0.01), while the WP changed insignificantly (p>0.05). The different ESs on the plateau overall exhibited synergistic effects, trade-offs between several pairs of ESs related to HQ, were observed in cropland areas. We further identified five distinct categories of ES bundles and proposed targeted recommendations for spatial planning and management of these ESs, tailored to their characteristics. The findings offer a valuable reference for high-quality environmental management, as well as the restoration and enhancement of ESs in arid inland areas in a warming climate.

Spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service bundles and the driving factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Defining a multi-service spatial pattern and ecosystem packages is the key to ensuring regional ecological security and sustainable development. Ecosystem service bundles can effectively discern the interactions among multiple services and regionalize ecological functional zones. Aiming at a range of environmental and ecological challenges in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, such as water scarcity, soil erosion, land degradation, poor forest and grassland quality, and shrinking agricultural land, the spatial pattern and driving forces of eight crux ecosystem services, including product supply, soil conservation, water conservation, carbon storage, sand fixation, environment purification, biological diversity and recreation culture, were analyzed by combining multiple model algorithms. Additionally, spatial system clustering was employed to identify ecosystem services bundles and optimize the ecological functional zoning. The results revealed significant spatial heterogeneity of the eight ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. High product supply concentrated in plain regions, while the rest seven ecosystem services were dominant in in mountainous areas. The region can be classified into four service bundles: ecological conservation service (ECS), ecological restoration service (ERS), product supply service (PSS) and ecological fragile service (EFS). ECS and ERS are dominated by regulating and supporting services, which are primarily driven by climatic factors and NDVI. ERS exhibits relatively low service level and is the crucial area for future ecological restoration. PSS is dominated by food supply, with land use change being the primary driving force. At present, with the rapid urbanization, various ecosystem services provided by EFS is inadequate. In the future, urban ecological construction should be strengthened to enhance regional ecosystem services capabilities.

How Do Changes in Ecosystem Services Multifunctionality Influence Human Wellbeing? Evidence From the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

ABSTRACTA proclaimed goal of landscape management is to improve the multifunctionality of ecosystem services (ESs) to sustain higher levels of human wellbeing (HWB). Although the enhancement of ES multifunctionality is often considered to lead to better HWB, empirical evidence directly supporting this claim remains scarce. This study investigates the relationship between ES multifunctionality and HWB in rapidly urbanizing regions, using the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China as a case study. We quantified ES multifunctionality with the Gini‐Simpson Diversity Index and identified ES multifunctional types using the bundle approach. We also calculated both the HWB mean score and HWB evenness score with the improved radar chart method, examining their relationships with ES multifunctionality through Spearman correlation analysis and the Kruskal–Wallis rank‐sum test. Results showed that (1) ES multifunctionality exhibited varied relationships with HWB indicators, but overall showed significant negative associations with both HWB mean score and HWB evenness score. (2) Each HWB indicator significantly differed across the detected ES bundles, but none of the bundles exhibited the highest values of all HWB indicators. (3) HWB mean score and HWB evenness score were generally higher in the peri‐urban bundle while lower in the agriculture and forest bundles. Our findings suggest that peri‐urban landscapes can provide relatively higher and more balanced levels of HWB in urban agglomerations. This also implies that a “land‐sharing” urban development model, which balances natural and built environments, may be more beneficial for enhancing ES multifunctionality and HWB compared with a “land‐sparing” model, where natural and built areas are separated.

Assessing spatio-temporal heterogeneity and drivers of ecosystem services to support zonal management in mountainous cities

With complex topography and geomorphology, mountainous cities possess abundant natural resources. They are constrained by ecological environment and topographic conditions, leading to a prominent contradiction between urbanization development and ecological protection. As a result, ecosystem services (ESs) are under greater regulatory pressure. The identification of ecosystem services bundles (ESBs) can be the foundation for developing zonal ecological protection planning policies. We took Chongqing as a case study, investigated the impact mechanisms of socio-ecological factors on the level of ES supply in each ESB. The findings reveal that: (1) The quantitative assessment of ESs for 2000, 2010, and 2020 showed that ESs were temporally stable and spatially heterogeneous. Areas with high supplies of food production (FP) and water yield (WY) were predominantly found in the northwestern cropland and urban built-up regions, whereas high supply areas for the other four ESs were primarily located in the northeastern Dabashan Mountains and the southern Wuling Mountains. (2) The quantification of trade-offs and synergies between ESs showed that FP had a trade-off effect with all five other ESs, while most other ES pairs exhibited synergistic effects. It was found that the interrelationships produced changes over time. (3) Then, three types of ESBs were identified. After examining the influence mechanisms of socio-ecological factors across the three ESBs, individual ESs were found to have essentially the same types of main impact factors in three ESBs, but varies in impact. (4) Finally, with reference to changes in ES levels and interrelationships and the driving mechanisms of socio-ecological factors in each zone, this study proposed zonal strategies for managing ecosystem services and optimizing territorial space based on the geographic characteristics and socio-economic development in different ESBs, with the goal of attaining sustainable urban development and improving human welfare.

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs and Synergies with Ecological Sensitivity to Delineate Ecological Functional Zones: A Case Study in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Buffer Area, China

Enhancing regional ecosystem stability and managing land resources effectively requires identifying ecological function zones and understanding the factors that influence them. However, most current studies have primarily focused on ecosystem service bundles, paying less attention to the trade-offs, synergies, and ecological sensitivity, leading to a more uniform approach to functional zoning. This study aimed to analyze and describe the spatial and temporal patterns of four essential ecosystem services, including water yield (WY), net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation (SC), and habitat quality (HQ), in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer area over the period from 2005 to 2019. Spatial overlay analysis was used to assess ecological sensitivity, trade-offs, synergies, and ecosystem service bundles to define ecological functional zones. Geographic detectors were then applied to identify the primary drivers of spatial variation in these zones. The findings showed a progressive improvement in ecosystem service functions within the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer zone. Between 2005 and 2019, NPP, soil conservation, and water yield all demonstrated positive trends, while HQ displayed a declining trend. There was significant spatial heterogeneity and distinct regional patterns in ecosystem service functions, with a general decrease from southwest to northeast, particularly in NPP and HQ. Trade-offs were evident in most ecosystem services, with the most significant between WY and HQ and most in the northeast and east regions. Ecological sensitivity decreased from southwest to northeast. Regions with a higher ecological sensitivity were primarily situated in the southwestern region, and their spatial distribution pattern was comparable to that of high habitat quality. The spatial overlay analysis categorized areas into various types, including human production and settlement zones, ecologically vulnerable zones, ecological transition zones, and ecological conservation zones, accounting for 17.28%, 22.30%, 7.41%, and 53.01% of the total area, respectively. The primary environmental factor affecting ecological function zoning was identified as precipitation, while the main social variables were human activity and population density. This study enhances the understanding of ecological functions and supports sustainable development in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer area, offering important guidance for ecological zoning.

Managing the Supply–Demand Mismatches and Potential Flows of Ecosystem Services in Jilin Province, China, from a Regional Integration Perspective

Regional integration strategically reorganizes spatially heterogeneous resources to maximize the overall benefits. Ecosystem services (ESs) are promising targets for regional integration due to their inherent heterogeneity and mobility, yet research in this area remains limited. This study quantifies crop production (CP), water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), and habitat quality (HQ) for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 using the InVEST model and identifies four ES bundles through a K-means cluster analysis. A conceptual ecosystem service flow (ESF) network at the service cluster scale is constructed based on county-level ESF data. The results reveal the following: (1) there is an upward trend in the ES budget for all services from 2000 to 2020, coupled with spatial mismatches between supply and demand; (2) deficit nodes for CP and CS services are concentrated in densely populated districts, while deficits in WY and HQ services are mainly in western Jilin Province; (3) Bundles I and II act as “sources” of ES, Bundle IV serves as a “sink”, and Bundle III is the only cluster with a CP surplus, balancing CP services across the province. In addition, this study provides ecological perspectives for understanding regional integration by suggesting differentiated integrated management for different ecosystem bundles.

Exploring natural-social impacts on the complex interactions of ecosystem services in ecosystem service bundles

Exploring natural-social impacts on the complex interactions of ecosystem services in ecosystem service bundles

Projecting LUCC dynamics and ecosystem services in an emerging urban agglomeration under SSP-RCP scenarios and their management implications

Improving our knowledge of future dynamics of ecosystem services (ESs) in the face of climate change and human activities provides a crucial foundation to navigate complex environmental challenges, which are essential to attaining sustainable development particularly in urban regions. However, an existing dearth persists in thoroughly forecasting the intricate interplay of trade-offs and synergies, as well as ecosystem services bundling under distinct future scenarios. This study adopts an integrated research framework to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration (CZTUA) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios (i.e., SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Our future scenarios suggest that the core urban area of CZTUA is projected to expand at the cost of forests and croplands by 2050. Furthermore, human-induced urbanization, particularly the high-intensity LUCC along the Xiangjiang river, significantly impacts ESs, resulting in lower ESs values. The trade-off effects between ESs are primarily observed between WY (water yield) and other ESs. Ecosystem service bundles (ESB) previously dominated by WY have significantly transitioned to CS (carbon storage)-HQ (habitat quality) bundle, especially in the urban core of CZTUA, which serves as an early warning of potential challenges related to water resources. Our study utilizes the latest climate and land use change predictions to evaluate ecosystems in urban agglomerations, and adopts a layered zoning strategy based on ESs, which provides decision-makers with reproducible tools to explore ecosystem changes.

Dynamic Evolution of Multi-Scale Ecosystem Services and Their Driving Factors: Rural Planning Analysis and Optimisation

Rural areas provide ecosystem services (ESs) to urban metropolitan regions. These services are threatened by the constant pressure of urbanisation and new interest in rural development. This has heightened the conflict between environmental concerns and developmental needs, thereby presenting significant land management and rural planning challenges. Employing a quantitative measurement and optimisation framework, we investigate six representative ES variables to assess planning strategies that can address this contradiction. We used a suburban rural area around Nanjing, China, as our study area. We collected spatial data from 2005 to 2020 at two scales (village level and 500 m grid) to map ESs, quantify interactions (trade-offs and synergies among ES bundles), and identify the social, ecological, and landscape drivers of rural change. Based on this, rural planning strategies for optimising ESs at different scales have been proposed. Our findings include (1) spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of ESs, (2) the identification of seven synergistic and eight trade-off pairs among ESs, (3) a spatial scale effect in suburban rural areas, and (4) the spatial trade-offs/synergies of ESs exhibiting a ‘Matthew effect’. The identification of key trade-offs and synergistic ES pairs and the categorisation of ES bundles form the basis for a multi-scale hierarchical management approach for ESs in the region. By examining the commonalities and variations in drivers across diverse scales, we established connections and focal points for spatial planning. We use these findings to propose spatial planning and landscape policy recommendations for rural suburban areas on multiple scales. This study aims to provide a comprehensive and detailed spatial optimisation strategy for rural areas that can help contribute to their revitalisation.

The impact of large-scale ecological restoration projects on trade-offs/synergies and clusters of ecosystem services

Understanding the relationships between ecosystem services (ES) and the factors driving their changes over long periods and multiple scales is key for landscape managers in decision-making. However, the widespread implementation of restoration programs has led to significant ES changes, with trade-offs across space and time that have been little explored empirically, making it challenging to provide effective experience for managers. We quantified changes and interactions among five ES across various stages of the Grain-to-Green Program in the eastern Loess Plateau, examining these dynamics at threefold spatial scales. We observed notable increases in soil retention and Net Ecosystem Production but declines in habitat quality and Landscape aesthetics under afforestation. Over time, and with more integrated restoration strategies, synergies between ES pairs weakened, and non-correlations (even trade-offs) increased. To avoid unnecessary trade-offs, we recommend incorporating socio-ecological factors driving ES changes and ES bundles, informed by empirical experience, into proactive spatial planning and environmental management strategies for multi-ES objectives. The temporal lags and spatial trade-offs highlighted by this study offer crucial insights for large-scale restoration programs worldwide.

Construction of regional multi-scenario spatially balanced ecological security pattern based on self-organizing feature map: A case study of Guangzhou, China

Constructing ecological security patterns (ESPs) is the ecological basis for achieving sustainable regional development. This study explored a framework of spatially balanced ESPs suitable for rapidly urbanizing areas to address the issues of overreliance on ecological land and subjective parameter settings in traditional ESP construction methods. Three ecosystem service bundles (product supply, water conservation, and habitat maintenance) were identified in Guangzhou using the self-organizing feature map method. These bundles were then used to identify multifunctional sources. The minimum size of the ecological source was determined to be 10 km2 through the “structure-pattern-function” framework, and a total of 19 ecological sources from three ecological functions were extracted. In these three scenarios, the 102 ecological corridors were classified into five categories based on their connected sources. Ecological node parameters were set based on local planning and dominant species characteristics, enhancing the explanatory power of the circuit theory. The multi-scenario ESP framework proposed in this study achieved a spatially balanced distribution of the entire region at the point, line, and surface levels, as confirmed by the ecological network assessment results. Future planning in Guangzhou should value the ecological functions of non-conventional ecological land, such as cropland and urban green spaces, while considering the impact of human activities on the environment and promptly modifying crucial node areas.

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Supply and Demand Bundles: A Case Study in the Sichuan-Yunnan Ecological Buffer Area, China

Identifying the spatial characteristics of ecosystem service (ES) supply and demand is crucial for effective ecosystem management and restoration. Past related studies have primarily focused on balancing ES supply and demand and supply clustering, with less attention focused on the drivers of demand clustering and their spatial evolution. This study explored the spatiotemporal supply–demand dynamics in four crucial ecosystem services (ESs) in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological buffer area region between 2005 and 2019, namely water yield, net primary production, soil conservation, and habitat quality. Self-organizing maps and geographical detectors were used to classify supply–demand ES bundles as their main drivers, respectively. The main results of the study included: (1) A decline in habitat quality, whereas net primary productivity, water yield, and soil conservation increased. However, there were increasing demands for habitat quality, water yield, and net primary productivity, despite the decrease in demand for soil conservation. (2) Demand for habitat quality was met by supply, whereas there were deficits in soil conservation, water yield, and net primary productivity, which contributed to the demand in the east exceeding that elsewhere. (3) The proportion of ES bundle 2 increased, whereas those of the remaining ES bundles declined. Similarly, the areas of ES demand bundles (ESDBs) 1 and 4 decreased, whereas those of 2 and 3 increased. While the spatial extent of the ESBs remained relatively stable, those of the ESDBs in the northern regions increased. Key factors influencing the spatial distribution of ES supply include human activities, population density, and precipitation, whereas land use, population density, and the human activity index primarily affect demand distribution. The results of this study can act as a reference for comprehensive regional ecosystem management.

Climate and land use changes impact the trajectories of ecosystem service bundles in an urban agglomeration: Intricate interaction trends and driver identification under SSP-RCP scenarios

The delivery of ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations, faces substantial threats from impending future climate change and human activity. Assessing ES bundles (ESBs) is critical to understanding the spatial allocation and interactions between multiple ESs. However, dynamic projections of ESBs under various future scenarios are still lacking, and their underlying driving mechanisms have received insufficient attention. This study examined the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and proposed a framework that integrates patch-generating land use simulation into three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and clustering analysis to assess spatiotemporal variations in seven ESs and ESBs from 1990 to 2050. The spatial trajectories of ESBs were analyzed to identify fluctuating regions susceptible to SSP scenarios. The results indicated that (1) different scenarios exhibited different loss rates of regulating and supporting services, where the mitigation of degradation was most significant under SSP126. The comprehensive ES value was highest under SSP245. (2) Bundles 1 and 2 (dominated by regulating and supporting services) had the largest total proportion under SSP126 (51.92 %). The largest total proportion of Bundles 4 and 5 occurred under SSP585 (48.96 %), with the highest provisioning services. The SSP126 scenario was projected to have the least ESB fluctuation at the grid scale, while the most occurred under SSP585. (3) Notably, synergies between regulating/supporting services were weaker under SSP126 than under either SSP245 or SSP585, while trade-offs between water yield and non-provisioning services were strongest. (4) Forestland and grassland proportions significantly affected carbon sequestration and habitat quality. Climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) acted as the dominant drivers of provisioning services, particularly water yield. Our findings advocate spatial strategies for future regional ES management to address upcoming risks.

Assessing ecosystem service dynamics and drivers for sustainable management in the Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China: A spatiotemporal analysis

To achieve regional ecological management and sustainable socio-economic development, it is essential to comprehend the intricate and interdependent relationships among various ecosystem services. The Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a typical ecologically vulnerable area. There is limited research on managing multiple ecosystem services to maximize supply based on understanding the complex relationships among ecosystem services. This study used the InVEST model to quantify habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY) in the Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China in 2000, 2010, and 2020 at the 5 km grid and county scales. Their trade-off and synergistic effects were explored using Spearman correlation analysis and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. In addition, self-organizing mapping was employed to identify ecosystem service bundles at two scales, whereas the geodetector was employed to determine the primary social-ecological drivers of ES. Finally, management strategies are proposed based on the research results to promote regional ecological sustainability. The results indicate that: (1) The four ESs exhibited an increasing trend during the study period. Except for WY, the other three ES demonstrated a similar spatial distribution while remaining relatively stable over time; (2) there is a synergistic effect between CS, HQ, and SC, whereas WY-related ES show trade-off effects; (3) six ES bundles were identified at the 5 km grid scale, and four ES bundles were identified at the county scale; (4) precipitation is a major driving factor for WY and an important driving factor for CS, HQ, and SC. In summary, natural factors have a greater impact on ES than socio-economic factors. Based on the differences in ecosystem service bundles and drivers at different scales, and in conjunction with China’s existing environmental policies, corresponding ecological management strategies were proposed, potentially providing a reference for sustainable development of the Agro-pastoral ecotone in northern China.

The Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Service Bundles in Anhui Province, China

Identifying ecosystem service bundles and their long-term evolutionary characteristics is essential for the overall enhancement of regional ecosystem services, as well as the division and management of functional areas, providing a basis for decision-making in formulating ecological and environmental protection policies, as well as regional development planning. Based on land use, remote sensing, and meteorological data obtained from Anhui Province, this study assessed six important ecosystem service functions, including food production (FP), water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), and landscape aesthetics (LA), at the township scale in 2000, 2010, and 2020. On this basis, the k-means clustering method was used to identify ecosystem service bundles, analyze the spatio-temporal evolution trajectory of service bundles, and explore the driving factors of the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service bundles using GeoDetector 2015 The results indicate the following: (1) At the spatial level, diverse ecosystem services demonstrate pronounced spatial differentiation. The distribution pattern of HQ, carbon fixation, and SC services is generally lower in the north and higher in the south, with areas of high value predominantly located in the western Dabie Mountains and the mountains of Southern Anhui. Conversely, FP services exhibit the reverse pattern, and WY services display a gradual increase from north to south, while cultural services are more dispersed, with areas of high value primarily located in the western Dabie Mountains, the Yangtze River Basin, and other locations. On the temporal scale, WY, SC, and FP services mainly exhibit an increasing trend, marked by a significant increase, whereas other services tend to present a decreasing trend. (2) Anhui Province can be categorized into four distinct types of service bundles: the grain production bundle (GPB), mountain ecological conservation bundle (MECB), urban living bundle (ULB), and core protection bundle (CPB). Ecosystem service bundles exhibit clear spatial differentiation, and identical service bundles demonstrate substantial clustering in space. Between 2000 and 2020, ecosystem service bundles displayed a marked spatio-temporal evolution, with the prevalence of GPBs diminishing, whereas the share of ULBs progressively increased, and the number of MECBs and CPBs remained largely stable. (3) In the spatio-temporal evolution process, the average annual precipitation, the proportion of forest land, and slope constitute the principal natural factors influencing the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service bundles, while the proportion of construction land represents the primary socio-economic factor, with natural factors exerting a more significant influence than socio-economic factors.

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecosystem service bundle based on multi-scenario simulation in Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, China.

Rapid urbanization is profoundly impacting the ecological environment and landscape patterns, leading to a decline in ecosystem services (ES) and posing threats to both ecological security and human well-being. This study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem service bundles (ESB) in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2030, analyze the trajectory of ESB evolution, and elucidate the drivers behind ESB formation and evolution. We utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to establish baseline (BLS), carbon sequestration priority (CPS), and urbanization priority (UPS) scenarios for simulating land use patterns in 2030. Following the assessment of ecosystem service values (ESV) through the equivalent factor method, we identified the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of ESB using the K-means clustering algorithm. By employing stability mapping and landscape indices, we identified and analyzed various types of ESB evolutionary trajectories. Redundancy analysis (RDA) was employed to pinpoint the drivers of ESB formation and evolution. The results revealed that from 2000 to 2030, land use changes were primarily observed in cropland, forestland, and construction land. Between 2000 and 2020, 92.88% of the region did not experience shifts in ESB types. In UPS, the ESB pattern in the study area underwent significant changes, with only 76.68% of the region exhibiting stabilized trajectories, while the other two scenarios recorded percentages higher than 80%. Key drivers of ESB-type shifts included initial food provision services, elevation, slope, changes in the proportion of construction land, and population change. This multi-scenario simulation of ESB evolution due to land use changes aids in comprehending potential future development directions from diverse perspectives and serves as a valuable reference for formulating and changing ecological management policies and strategies.

Ecological risk assessment and influencing factors in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area based on supply and demand bundles of ecosystem services

In the context of rapid urbanization, metropolitan areas are facing the risk of supply-demand mismatches among ecosystem services. Investigating the patterns, relationships, and driving factors of multiple supply-demand risks is of great significance to support the efficient management of regional ecological risks. We quantified the single/comprehensive supply-demand risk rates of six ecosystem services in Wuhan Metropolitan Area at the township scale in 2000, 2010, and 2020. By applying the self-organizing feature map network and optimal parameter geo-detector, we identified supply-demand risks bundles of ecosystem services and influencing factors of comprehensive risks. The results showed significant spatial variations in the supply-demand risks of typical ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. The supply-demand risk associated with grain production, water yield, carbon sequestration, and green space recreation increased, while soil conservation and water purification risks decreased. The comprehensive ecosystem services supply-demand risk increased from 0.41 to 0.45, indicating a 'core area increase and periphery decrease' trend. Throughout the study period, the area exhibited bundles of comprehensive extremely high-risk bundles (B1), comprehensive high-risk bundles (B2), water purification high-risk bundles (B3), and grain production-soil conservation risk bundles (B4). The transition of risk types from B3 to B2 and from B2 to B1 suggested an increase in the combination and intensity of supply-demand risk. Vegetation cover, nighttime light index, and population density were the main driving factors for spatial variations in comprehensive supply-demand risk. Ecologi-cal risk assessment based on ecosystem services supply-demand bundles could provide an effective and reliable way to regulate multiple regional risk issues.

The next step in suburban rural revitalization: Integrated whole-process landscape management linking ecosystem services and landscape characteristics

Suburban rural ecosystem, especially those adjacent to large cities, constitute a key component of rural and urban sustainability and resilience. However, urbanisation often exerts a negative impact on suburban rural landscapes, leading to ecological degradation. Despite making a significant contribution to multiple ecosystem services (ESs), suburban rural landscapes do not receive commensurate attention compared to urban themes, particularly on a smaller scale. We explored key drivers of land use dynamics in the suburban rural area of Jiangning, Nanjing, China, via a quantitative statistical mapping approach, utilising multi-source geospatial data from 2005 to 2018 and relevant ecological and socio-economic data that would enable the quantification of four key ecosystem services. Landscape functional zones characterised by ESs bundles were also identified, and their association with surrounding landscape attributes was statistically analysed. Our results highlighted urbanisation-induced population growth as the macro-context driving the development of Jiangning. The analysis yielded five distinct landscape functional zones (LFZs) that displayed synergistic relationships between their ESs, namely, carbon storage and soil retention, n-output and water yield. Furthermore, these results linked LFZs to environmental spatial characteristics and created detailed landscape elements for each zone, thereby emphasising the need for more comprehensive landscape planning and designing for ecological transition zones. We were thus able to imply zoning attributes-based rural landscape designs that may optimise ecological benefits. This study provides a systematic method to integrate ESs, landscape functional zones, and environmental spatial characteristics into the whole process management of suburban rural landscape planning. It aims to promote sustainable multifunctionality in suburban rural areas by providing spatial-level management indicators and landscape element-level design strategies for each LFZ, thereby revitalising the countryside from the perspective of landscape architecture.

Integrating historical patterns and future trends for ecological management zone identification and validation: A case study in Beijing, China

Ecological management zones (EMZs) are pivotal in improving the management of ecosystem services (ESs) and promoting sustainable regional development. In this study, we developed a comprehensive framework aimed at identifying EMZs and substantiating their efficacy through the amalgamation of historical evolutionary patterns and future trends. We applied this framework to Beijing, China, and selected five vital ESs for the study area namely, water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC) and water purification (WP). The framework involves two key components. Firstly, the identification of EMZs is based on the historical evolution of five types of ESs and the dynamic assessment of ES bundles. Subsequently, it enables a simulation of various scenarios to predict future alterations in land use and ESs, thereby validating the effectiveness of the identified EMZs. Our findings reveal notable spatial heterogeneity among different ESs, and that CS, HQ, SC, and WP exhibited synergies, while WY and showed trade-offs with the remaining four types of ESs. Based on an analysis of ES bundle evolution trajectories, we identified four types of EMZs: ecological conservation zone, ecological restoration zone, ecological transition zone and sustainable construction zone. Through strategic EMZ planning, it becomes possible to augment the area of forestland and grassland, alleviate the contradiction between arable land and construction land, and enhance the supply of various ESs. The proposed framework not only offers a novel perspective on the scientific management of ESs but also furnishes decision-makers and planners with an intuitive understanding of the tangible benefits associated with EMZ planning.