Budapest Stock Exchange Research Articles

Financial resilience and adaptation: Analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses rated successful

AbstractThe aim of our research is to fill the research gap on how successful businesses have been affected by the challenges posed by COVID-19 regarding the resilience and adaptability of firms. Since 2016, the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE), with the collaboration of EY, selects a number of unlisted companies (BSE50) per year that have Hungarian roots and are considered successful based on their operations and ability to increase sales. We examined the impact of COVID-19 on profitability, liquidity, indebtedness and change in turnover or EBITDA based on four years (2018–2021) of financial data from 252 non-financial, unlisted companies. In addition to the descriptive statistics, a two-sample asymptotic z-test was used to compare the periods before and during COVID-19. We divided the BSE50 companies into Dynamics and Laggards based on the change in turnover between 2019 and 2020. The Dynamics of the pandemic have emerged from the challenging period of COVID-19 as real champions, taking advantage of their low level of indebtedness by making efficient use of loan possibilities. Even the Laggards were able to rebalance and consolidate their financial position by the second year of the pandemic. Our study is novel because we used data on Hungarian, non-financial, unlisted companies with successful management to examine the impact of COVID-19 on hard-hit firms as well as on firms in the winning branch.

Market Timing Investment Methods on the Budapest Stock Exchange

Market Timing Investment Methods on the Budapest Stock Exchange

Comparative Causality Analysis for Corporate Governance and Financial Performance of Hungary and Indonesia

This study compares Corporate Governance (CG) between Hungary and Indonesia and analyzes the causality between CG and financial performance in both countries. CG proxy is the ownership structure. In the monitoring function, CG will improve the company's performance. The company's performance, on the other hand, can affect the ownership structure as one of the markets for corporate control in the CG mechanism. The causality test will inform whether the monitoring or market for corporate control is implemented as a CG mechanism. This study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the bi-causality between CG and financial performance. The sample consists of companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSX) and the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The results showed that only two pairs of bi-causality relationships (out of six pairs) occurred in the BSE sample companies, and there were three pairs of bi-causality relationships (out of nine pairs) in the IDX sample companies. This research contributes to the relationship between ownership and firm performance based on agency problems from the perspective of the monitoring function and the market for firm control.

Održivo finansiranje - stvarno mađarsko zakonodavstvo u okviru EU

In this paper, after a systematic presentation of the theoretical background of the European Union regulation, we examine the Hungarian regulation and legal practice (using the websites of five listed Hungarian companies and the Budapest Stock Exchange Corporate Governance Recommendations) in connection with the identification of shareholders by the company, the verifiability of the exercise of shareholder's rights, the remuneration policy and reporting of the public company limited by shares and the approval of legal transactions concluded with related party. We also focus on financial governance and certain viewpoints of product governance, with special attention to product approval process and the issue of greenwashing. We chose to emphasize these issues since one cannot find verbatim, translations of legal acts of European Union on these fields with respect to Hungarian legislation. The other reason is that there are available practical experiences in connection with them, therefore we reflect on different anomalies. Our aim is to highlight the need to transpose and implement a legal instrument with such wide-ranging implications as sustainable finance into a thoughtful and coherent set of rules that permeate the legal system.

Diversification Perspectives of a Single Equity Market: Analysis on the Example of Selected CEE Countries

The study addresses the benefits of a unified stock market in terms of diversification risk for the eight CEE stock markets. For this purpose, each stock market was treated as a separate portfolio based on the companies listed during 2018–2019. Portfolio diversification techniques were used to identify risk linked with the eight Central Eastern European stock markets. The results show that the stock market with the lowest diversification risk was the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, followed by the Prague Stock Exchange, the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, and at the end stands the Zagreb Stock Exchange. The portfolio constructed from the Zagreb Stock Exchange carries the highest portfolio risk, but it also offers the highest weekly weighted average returns. Stock markets that benefit in terms of portfolio risk from unification are the Bratislava Stock Exchange, the Budapest Stock Exchange, the Bucharest Stock Exchange, the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and the Zagreb Stock Exchange. The indexes where the portfolio risk increases at the time of unification are the Bulgarian Stock Exchange, the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, and the Prague Stock Exchange. From a managerial perspective, financial investors get a novel outlook on the diversification possibilities offered within a hypothetical unified CEE stock market.

Granger Causality between Stock and Gold Returns – Evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic

Theoretical background: The safety of capital investments is one of the criteria in the decision-making process. Under conditions of uncertainty in financial market, investors’ interest in gold – as an alternative form of capital investment – is growing, especially in comparison with stocks perceived as more risky assets. Fluctuations in the prices of these assets make investors transfer their funds from gold markets to more profiable markets, or return to gold markets. From this point of view, it is important to analyse the causal relationships between returns on these assets. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between the rates of return on investment in gold and stocks in selected countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic). We assume that the rates of return on the gold market constitute a Granger cause of the rates of return on the analysed stock markets. Research methods: To investigate the impact of the gold market on the stock market and vice versa , including the type and direction of Granger causality of the rates of returns, the VAR models were estimated and served as the basis for performing a Granger non causality linear test. The analysis of stationarity (ADF test) and cointegration (the Johansen test) of variables was carried out to select the final form of VAR/VECM model. The empirical data covered the period between December 1996 and December 2020. The analysis was carried out for the entire period and two sub-periods: the first one before the 2007 financial crisis and the second one, covering this crisis and the beginning of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stock indices included in this research are composed of the most liquid stocks, so-called blue chip shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange – WIG20, the Budapest Stock Exchange – BUX index, the Prague Stock Exchange – PX index. The gold prices are expressed in domestic currencies (PLN, HUF, CZK, respectively). Monthly logarithmic returns on investment on the analysed markets constituted the variables of models reflecting the interrelations in the considered countries. Main findings: We show that, apart from two instances of unilateral causality running from gold to stock returns, no causal relationships were found in any of the directions (independence) for the entire sample. We prove that in the case of Hungary and the Czech Republic (significant at α = 5%), the rate of return on the gold market determined the rates of return on the stock market, whereas in Poland, no such causality was identified. To some extent, the research hypothesis was positively verified. The results also confim that changes in the stock market prices in all considered countries did not affect the change in the price of gold. After dividing the sample into two sub periods, no causal relationships were found between the analysed markets in the fist sub-period, whereas in the second sub-period, we indicate that the rates of return on gold determine the rates of return on stocks in two countries, namely Poland and Hungary. In this respect, the research hypothesis of one-way causality occurring in the analysed sub-periods is positively verified. Only in Hungary is the impact of gold on the stock market observed both in the entire period and in the second sub-period.

A Snapshot of the Ownership Network of the Budapest Stock Exchange

In this study, I use the toolkit of network research to explore the network of ownership relations of entities present on the Budapest Stock Exchange as issuers in 2020, applying static methods and exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) analysis. In the snapshot typology and simulation-based capture of the network, not only the network of relations between issuers present on the stock market is analysed, but also the ownership relations of companies connected to the network but not listed on the stock market; thus, the study addresses the ownership network associated with the stock exchange as a whole. The research results provide us with an accurate answer about the morphological characteristics of the network, the network factors determining centrality, the hierarchy of the network, and the evolution of the network with the help of simulations. The study may allow us to obtain a clearer picture of the interlinkages and clusters of companies listed on the stock market, which can be used as a basis for subsequent longitudinal analyses.

Investors’ Reactions to Extreme Events in the Hungarian Stock Market

This paper examines investors’ reactions to extreme events in the Hungarian stock market. We seek to answer the research question whether following extreme events any overreaction of investors can be observed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. With a view to answering the research question, we identify extreme events based on extreme returns on the market portfolio and then – using an event study – we examine abnormal returns on winner and loser equities. After examining investors’ reactions, we inspect the performance of the contrarian strategy in the created event windows. The main result of our research is the presentation that – based on the analysis of the differences between the average cumulative abnormal returns after extreme events – investor overreactions can be observed in the Hungarian stock market. The loser portfolios relating to extreme events significantly outperform winner portfolios connected to the event. The excess return of the contrarian strategy cannot be attributed to differences in the market risk of winner and loser portfolios. The excess return of the strategy can be shown only under tighter extreme value thresholds. The clustering of the event windows with short-term reversal, high market volatility and extreme events is beneficial to the performance of the contrarian strategy. In addition, our research also shows that the purchase of loser portfolios or the development of a contrarian strategy after extreme events may generate profit for investors, since after extreme events the loser portfolios usually beat the market on a horizon of 21 days.

Time-Varying Beta—The Case Study of the Largest Companies from the Polish, Czech, and Hungarian Stock Exchange

ABSTRACT The main goal of this article is to investigate empirically the Kalman approach to estimate the time-varying beta parameter as a systematic investment risk market in Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary. In our research, we investigate the assessments of beta on the basis of seven specifications of time-varying beta for the 12 largest companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (Poland), 7 on Prague Stock Exchange (Czech Republic), and 11 on Budapest Stock Exchange (Hungary). The obtained results are compared with the estimates received on the basis of Sharpe’s linear model. Estimations are made using the maximum likelihood method for monthly data in the period 2005–2017. We are presenting the ranking of the used specifications according to three criteria of goodness of fit and the matrix of correlation coefficients between the results of these specifications. The results show that the Kalman filter estimators outperform the others.

The Impact of Trade Liquidity on the Rates of Return from Emerging Market Shares Based on the Example of Poland, Austria and Hungary

In relation to assets, liquidity generally relates to the ease by which an asset can be sold immediately after purchase without incurring losses of any kind. These losses could be due to price changes or various transaction costs. This can be seen with respect to various instruments (such as stocks or futures contracts), market segments, or even entire exchanges. The importance of liquidity has been acknowledged a long time ago. A considerable number of studies have investigated stock liquidity, providing evidence that more illiquid stocks have higher returns, which may be deemed an “illiquidity premium”. This paper examines various factors which have an effect on liquidity by presenting the results of research concerning relations between liquidity and stock returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), the Budapest Stock Exchange (BSE) and the Vienna Stock Exchange (VSE). The main objective of the study is to determine whether there is a statistically significant relationship between the trading liquidity of the shares and the evolution of the rate of return on these shares. The applied research methodology is similar to that described by Datar, Naik and Radcliffe in their work “Liquidity and Stock Returns: An Alternative Test”.

Interdependence and Risk Comparison of Slovak, Hungarian and Polish Stock Markets: Policy and Managerial Implications*

Risk captured through the volatility of stock markets stands as the essential concern for financial investors. The financial crisis of 2008 demonstrated that stock markets are highly integrated. Slovakia, Hungary and Poland went through identical centralist economic arrangement, but nowadays operate under diverse stock markets, monetary system and tax structure. The study aims to measure the risk level of the Slovak Stock Market (SAX index), Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX index) and Poland Stock Market (WIG20 index) based on the portfolio diversification model. Results of the study provide information on the diversification benefits generated when SAX, BUX and WIG20 join their stock markets. The study considers that each stock index represents an independent portfolio. Portfolios are built to stand on the available companies that are listed on each stock index from 2007 till 2017. The results of the study show that BUX generates the lowest risk and highest weighted average return. In contrast, SAX is the riskiest portfolio but generates the lowest weighted average return. The results find that the stock prices of BUX have larger positive correlation than the stock prices of SAX. Moreover, the highest diversification benefits are realized when Portfolio SAX joins Portfolio BUX and the lowest diversification benefits are achieved when SAX joins WIG20.

A hálózatelemzés módszerének alkalmazása a pénzügyi piacokon a korrelációs együttható és a kölcsönös információ felhasználásával

THE AIMS OF THE PAPER The aim of the study to demonstrate the application of the network analysis on the financial markets through a domestic example, and to present the usage of the mutual information. METHODOLOGY The study compares networks based on the correlation coefficient and the mutual information, using the log returns of stock prices of the Budapest Stock Exchange between January 2006 and June 2018. MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS Small-world and scale-free properties are more recognizable on networks based on the mutual information, which underpins the results of the previous studies. Another interesting issue is the strong correlation betwen small-world and scale-free properties. RECOMMENDATIONS It would be interesting to study the differences between the correlation coefficient and the mutual information, and examine other possibilities of applications of the mutual information.

Research on the accounting quality of public listed companies at the Budapest Stock Exchange

The operation of a financial reporting system is very expensive. In all areas where costs arise, it is important to examine whether the benefits exceed the costs or not. The objectives of financial reporting in Hungary are specified by Act C of 2000 on Accounting (HLA). In this paper, we will show these objectives and the defined accounting principles, as well. With the help of previous research, we have reviewed how accounting quality is measured. The aim of this research is to examine the difference in accounting quality between the publicly listed and private companies in Hungary and develop an evaluation process that takes due account of the complexity of the topic. To this end, we studied the separate (non-consolidated) financial statements of 63 Hungarian com- panies during the period of 1998-2016. Forty-seven percent of the statements were disclosed by public companies and fifty-three percent were disclosed by private companies. The examined financial statements were prepared in accordance with the HLA. To evaluate the data, we examined accruals, timely loss recognition, the vola- tility of earnings, cash flow and earnings management towards target. To summarize the results, we developed an evaluation model which is based on the basic accounting principles and the above-mentioned methods. We found that publicly listed companies have higher accounting quality compared to private companies.

Importance of Financial Ratios for Predicting Stock Price Trends: Evidence from the Visegrad Group

This study examines the effect of primary microeconomic factors on the stock prices of select financial and energy industry companies listed and traded on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). Microeconomic factors are based on the financial situations at various companies. Financial ratios, gained from the financial statements of the individual companies, are used for the analysis. In general, the paper confirmed that profitability and debt ratios are the most important business factors from the perspective of the impact on stock prices. The existence of the relationship between stock prices and financial ratios is tested with the generalised method of moments (GMM) during the period of 2006 to 2016.

The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005–2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative im­pact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

Random Walk, Ergodicity versus Predictability – The Case of the Budapest Stock Exchange

In financial markets, the term 'random walk' is frequently used in relation to price movement over a period of time. This highly expressive term simply means that prices do not follow a predictable trend, and so previous movements are unsuitable as a basis for speculation regarding future price changes. There exists, however, another model which is based on the ergodic theorem, and this says that past and present probability distribution define the probability distribution which will dictate future market prices. Clearly, the 'random walk' hypothesis and the ergodic theorem are polar opposites, and, whilst the concept of uncertainty is closely linked to the former, the latter suggests that forecasting is, in fact, possible. This paper examines how the theory of efficient markets and the efficiency of the market itself provide the means to resolve this contradiction. We provide empirical proof concerning the 'random walk' theory, for both the recession and post-recession periods in the case of the stock index of the Hungarian stock market.

Do Black Sea maize prices influence maize futures price discovery in Hungary? An analysis of the relationship between Hungarian and Black Sea maize prices

As the Black Sea Region (BSR) has recently emerged as a major world grain exporter region, this study assesses the possible influence of BSR maize prices on maize futures prices in Hungary. To measure the linear relationship between these prices the Pearson’s correlation was used, and to estimate their cointegration the Johansen test was performed for the period April 2011 to December 2013. Prices of Paris (MATIF) and Chicago (CBOT) maize futures were also included in the analysis for comparison. The results suggest that BSR maize prices had little or no influence on futures price discovery in Hungary during the period investigated. From this it can be concluded that (a) BSR supply and demand conditions bore negligible importance for market participants, and (b) Budapest Stock Exchange maize futures may not be efficient tools for hedging price risks associated with Hungarian maize exports to third countries where prices are derived from quotes at BSR seaports. On the other hand, MATIF maize futures prices had a measurable impact on the pricing of maize futures in Hungary, although this connection disappeared for the period April-December 2013. The same was true for CBOT maize futures prices which Hungarian maize futures prices were also cointegrated with in a revised 2012/2013 crop year (April-March). Some possible causes of the dis-association of these markets observed recently are discussed.

Emerging capital market efficiency: a comparative analysis of weak-form efficiency in Romania and Hungary in the context of the global financial crisis

This paper examines in a comparative manner the weak-form efficiency in the case of two emerging capital markets, the Bucharest Stock Exchange and the Budapest Stock Exchange, in the context of the global financial crisis. The study includes both a theoretical part and a section of original research. Efficient market hypothesis has been an important and widely accepted issue of classical finance for a long period of time. An emerging capital market, like the Bucharest Stock Exchange or the Budapest Stock Exchange, is characterized by deep functional, structural and institutional dysfunctions. The analysis on which this article is built is based on the daily price of Bucharest Stock Exchange indices: BET and BET-C, as well as on daily price of Budapest Stock Exchange indices: BUX and BUMIX during the period of January 2007 to November 2011.

Venture capital and private equity industry in Hungary

Hungary represents the second most developed venture capital and private equity (VC&PE) market in Central and Eastern Europe. This article is based on a detailed survey of the entire VC industry between 1989–2010. It demonstrates that while there was a relatively strong correlation between the allocation of capital to VC&PE funds and the capital flow into the Budapest Stock Exchange, the changes in investment activities were closely related to election years. Investments had been hampered primarily not by the shortage of capital, but by a lack of demand and attractive business plans. The article illustrates the different roles and approaches of global, regional and country VC&PE funds in Hungary. It points out that VC investments hardly satisfied their principal function or mission, namely to support innovative start-up and small businesses. Government interventions in the VC market proved to be ineffective as well. Similarly to the whole region, the Hungarian market profited from a transitory situation in the case of high-value PE transactions between 2007 and 2008, at the beginning of the crisis, when the investment problems in Western Europe had yet not extended to the CEE region. From 2009 onward, however, the crisis has resulted in a drop in investments despite the significant amount of uninvested capital accumulated in recent years. As to the prospects for 2013, the early-stage VC segment in Hungary is expected to flourish owing to the Jeremie funds, while the high-value buyout segment of the market will suffer from both the euro zone debt crisis and the loss of transparency in economic policy.

Hungarian Accounting Standardization Effects

Nowadays, especially during the current global financial crisis, companies in Hungary are striving desperately to remain competitive and achieve sustainable levels of economic development. The highly competitive environment requires companies to create a clear business strategy, and accounting has to be part of this strategy since it helps individual enterprises to achieve their strategic objectives. International accounting standards are new global methods for business information systems and they are able to harmonize financial regimes both in Hungary and world-wide. The increased globalization of markets, the complexity of commercial trading and the concentration of business in global competition have led to a still greater need for international accounting harmonization. It is expected that a unified, standardized accounting information system will lead to new types of analysis and data – with the possible integration of new indicators used in the business practice of certain countries as an additional benefit.The purpose of this study was to measure the differences between national (Hungarian)l rules and the international standards, evaluating and analyzing their effects on the business environment. The financial data are taken from accounts published on the Budapest Stock Exchange and in the Hungarian Business Information database. The results show that those businesses which have adopted international standards achieved higher and statistically significant positive coefficients than those following local accounting rules. We found that larger firms (those with more leverage, higher market capitalization and substantial foreign sales) were more likely to have adopted international accounting standards.