Abstract Despite numerous efforts worldwide to reduce the harmful effects of alcohol, its impact on health remains significant, contributing significantly to the loss of healthy life years. In Belgium, alcohol use is still a major public health concern, ranking among the highest in alcohol consumption across Europe. This study aims to use available nationally representative data to estimate and evaluate the time trends of alcohol use patterns in Belgium from 2013 to 2018. We used repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS), which includes self-reported alcohol use and sociodemographic data, to create a time series of annual consumption from 2013 to 2018. This included current and former drinkers, and lifetime abstainers by year, sex, region, and age groups. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model, using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation to create the time series and forecast trends for 2020. In Belgium, the prevalence of current drinking remained at a similar level of 80% from 2013 to 2020, with similar rates observed in the Flemish (FL) and Walloon (WA) regions. However, the Brussels-Capital region (BR) had a slightly lower prevalence of 70%. Trends remained relatively stable across all regions during this period. The national level of former drinkers increased from 5% in 2013 to 8% in 2020, with BR and FL showing similar increases, while WA experienced a decline. Abstainer rates rose from 15% in 2013 to 19% in 2020 nationally, with varying increases in each region. Specifically, abstainer rates in FL increased from 13% to 17% and in WA from 14% to 20%, while BR saw an increase from 19% to 22%. Overall, declining trends were evident, with men exhibiting higher prevalence rates across all categories. Time trends from the BHIS reveal consistent and high use of alcohol in Belgium over 7 years, emphasizing the ongoing public health challenge. Urgent policy interventions are needed to reduce the impact of alcohol on health Key messages • Alcohol use in Belgium is still a pressing public health issue, with high prevalence rates of current drinking in the population. Different patterns of alcohol use can be seen between regions. • Understanding the role of alcohol on population health as an attributable burden can improve health monitoring.
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