British National Child Development Study Research Articles

Does higher education matter for health in the UK?

Using six sweeps of data from the 1958 British National Child Development Study (NCDS), we employ a quasi-parametric approach of propensity score matching to estimate the impacts of higher education attainment on a wide range of health-related outcomes for cohorts at ages 33, 42, and 50. The non-pecuniary benefits of higher education on health are substantial. Cohorts with higher levels of education are more likely to report better health, maintain a healthy weight, refrain from smoking, exhibit a lower frequency of alcohol consumption, and are less likely to be obese. The effects on self-reported health, body mass index (BMI), drinking alcohol increase with age, but continuously decrease with smoking frequency. When considering gender heterogeneity, higher education has a more significant effect on BMI and the likelihood of obesity for males, while it has a greater impact on self-reported health, drinking alcohol, and smoking frequencies for females. Furthermore, we find no significant evidence that higher education reduces the likelihood of depression. The results of the Rosenbaum bounds sensitivity analysis suggest that, although our overall results demonstrate robustness, there may still be unobserved hidden bias in the relationship between higher education and self-reported health.

An Analysis of the Effect of Streaming on Civic Participation Through a Causal Hidden Markov Model

We examine the effect of streaming based on ability levels on individuals’ civic participation throughout their adult life. The hypothesis we test is that ability grouping influences individuals’ general self-concept and, consequently, their civic participation choices across the life course. We employ data from the British National Child Development Study, which follows all UK citizens born during a certain week in 1958. Six binary variables observed at 33, 42, and 51 years of age are considered to measure civic participation. Our approach defines causal estimands with multiple treatments referring to the evolution of civic engagement over time in terms of potential versions of a sequence of latent variables assumed to follow a Markov chain with initial and transition probabilities depending on posttreatment time-varying covariates. The model also addresses partially or entirely missing data on one or more indicators at a given time occasion and missing posttreatment covariate values using dummy indicators. The model is estimated by maximizing a weighted log-likelihood function with weights corresponding to the inverse probability of the received treatment obtained from a multinomial logit model based on pretreatment covariates. Our results show that ability grouping affects the civic participation of high-ability individuals when they are 33 years old with respect to participation in general elections.

Estimation of Causal Effects with a Binary Treatment Variable: A Unified M-Estimation Framework

Abstract In this paper, we review several estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) that belong to three main groups: regression, weighting and doubly robust methods. We unify the exposition of these estimators within an M-estimation framework and we derive their variance estimators from the sandwich form variance-covariance matrix of the M-Estimator. Additionally, we re-estimate the causal return to higher education on earnings by the reviewed methods using the rich dataset provided by the British National Child Development Study (NCDS) as an empirical illustration.

Large Language Models for Epidemiological Research via Automated Machine Learning: Case Study Using Data From the British National Child Development Study.

Large language models have had a huge impact on natural language processing (NLP) in recent years. However, their application in epidemiological research is still limited to the analysis of electronic health records and social media data. To demonstrate the potential of NLP beyond these domains, we aimed to develop prediction models based on texts collected from an epidemiological cohort and compare their performance to classical regression methods. We used data from the British National Child Development Study, where 10,567 children aged 11 years wrote essays about how they imagined themselves as 25-year-olds. Overall, 15% of the data set was set aside as a test set for performance evaluation. Pretrained language models were fine-tuned using AutoTrain (Hugging Face) to predict current reading comprehension score (range: 0-35) and future BMI and physical activity (active vs inactive) at the age of 33 years. We then compared their predictive performance (accuracy or discrimination) with linear and logistic regression models, including demographic and lifestyle factors of the parents and children from birth to the age of 11 years as predictors. NLP clearly outperformed linear regression when predicting reading comprehension scores (root mean square error: 3.89, 95% CI 3.74-4.05 for NLP vs 4.14, 95% CI 3.98-4.30 and 5.41, 95% CI 5.23-5.58 for regression models with and without general ability score as a predictor, respectively). Predictive performance for physical activity was similarly poor for the 2 methods (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.55, 95% CI 0.52-0.60 for both) but was slightly better than random assignment, whereas linear regression clearly outperformed the NLP approach when predicting BMI (root mean square error: 4.38, 95% CI 4.02-4.74 for NLP vs 3.85, 95% CI 3.54-4.16 for regression). The NLP approach did not perform better than simply assigning the mean BMI from the training set as a predictor. Our study demonstrated the potential of using large language models on text collected from epidemiological studies. The performance of the approach appeared to depend on how directly the topic of the text was related to the outcome. Open-ended questions specifically designed to capture certain health concepts and lived experiences in combination with NLP methods should receive more attention in future epidemiological studies.

Adolescent development and the math gender gap

This paper investigates the determinants of the gap between girls and boys in mathematics performance (the ‘math gap’). We are particularly interested in the role played by pubertal development in explaining the widening of the math gap over adolescence. We estimate rich production function models of math skills, using data from the 1958 British National Child Development Study (NCDS), a longitudinal survey of all British children born in a single week in March 1958 which contains unique information on pubertal development and educational outcomes. Using (cumulative) value-added models, we show that the impact of puberty varies by the age and gender of the child, and that this heterogeneity can explain about two thirds of the math gap that emerges between the ages of 11 and 16. We find also that the widening of the math gap during adolescence is driven by markers of pubertal development which are publicly evident, rather than by markers which are only privately evident; and that the relationship between puberty and math scores is strongly associated with children's self-perceived ability in math. Taken together, these results suggest that the mechanisms underlying the relationship between pubertal development and the math gender gap are socially rather than biologically driven.

Adolescence Development and the Math Gender Gap

Using different production function models, we study the causal association between adolescence development and the increase in the gap in math performance between boys and girls. We use data from the 1958 British National Child Development Study, a longitudinal survey of all British children born in the first week of March 1958, containing unique information on puberty development and educational outcomes from childhood into adolescence. We first document a widening of about 10 percent of a standard deviation in the gender gap in maths from primary to secondary school in the UK, and show that adolescent development contributes to explain almost two thirds of the widening of the math gender gap during the adolescence years. We also explore the mechanisms behind these effects. Our evidence regarding differences in the impact of puberty development by age, subject and self-perceived math ability suggests that both social conditions and biological factors are behind the estimated relationships between adolescent development and the increase in the gender gap in math in secondary school.

Female long-term labour market outcomes: the role of early-life abilities and education

ABSTRACT We study how early-life cognitive skills, non-cognitive abilities, and family characteristics influence educational choices and affect later employment outcomes and wages. The analysis was carried out on a cohort of UK females observed at different life stages by adopting the British National Child Development Study database. Our findings provide evidence of how early-life abilities and family characteristics affect both the educational attainment and later labour market outcomes of female workers. However, we found that educational levels interact with early-life abilities, productive characteristics in general, and other characteristics, giving rise to different employment outcomes and income prospects conditioned on educational attainment. Occupational outcomes and wages of low-educated women are more sensitive to factors that are not strictly linked to productivity.

Adolescence Development and the Math Gender Gap

Using different production function models, we study the causal association between adolescence development and the increase in the gap in math performance between boys and girls. We use data from the 1958 British National Child Development Study, a longitudinal survey of all British children born in the first week of March 1958, containing unique information on puberty development and educational outcomes from childhood into adolescence. We first document a widening of about 10 percent of a standard deviation in the gender gap in maths from primary to secondary school in the UK, and show that adolescent development contributes to explain almost two thirds of the widening of the math gender gap during the adolescence years. We also explore the mechanisms behind these effects. Our evidence regarding differences in the impact of puberty development by age, subject and self-perceived math ability suggests that both social conditions and biological factors are behind the estimated relationships between adolescent development and the increase in the gender gap in math in secondary school.

The politics of the excluded: abjection and reconciliation amongst the British precariat

In this paper, we use a powerful empirical resource to address what the popular politics of disadvantage might entail in contemporary Britain. We take advantage of the unusually rich qualitative data from the British National Child Development Study, a cohort of Britons born in 1 week in 1958, to focus specifically on the accounts of those who are particularly disadvantaged. By concentrating on these a small number of qualitative accounts, which have been rigorously selected from the wider nationally representative sample on the basis of their relatively small amounts of economic and cultural capital, we will explore in detail the accounts and identities of these disadvantaged Britons with a view to explicating their political frameworks, their social identities and more broadly their orientations towards mobilisation.

Association of Early-Life Mental Health With Biomarkers in Midlife and Premature Mortality

Early-life mental health is known to be associated with socioeconomic adversity and psychological distress in adulthood, but less is known about potential associations with biomarkers and mortality. To investigate the association between early-life mental health trajectories with biomarkers in midlife and premature mortality. This study used data from the British National Child Development Study, a population-based birth cohort. The initial sample of 17 415 individuals consisted of all infants born in Great Britain in a single week in 1958. Analysis began Feburary 2017 and ended May 2020. Biomarkers collected at age 44 to 45 years were fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, glycated hemoglobin, high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, forced expiratory volume, blood pressure, and waist-to-hip ratio. Information on all-cause mortality was available up to age 58 years and cause-specific mortality up to age 50 years. Biomarkers were analyzed from 9377 participants (age, 44-45 years, 4712 female [50.3%]) and mortality data from 15 067 participants (age, 58 years; 7379 female [49.0%]). A 4-group longitudinal typology of early-life conduct problems and affective symptoms was identified: (1) stable low, (2) teacher-identified adolescent onset, (3) moderate, and (4) stable high. Compared with the stable-low group, the stable-high (B, 2.308; 95% CI, 0.213-4.404) and teacher-identified adolescent-onset (B, 2.114; 95% CI, 0.725-3.503) groups had less favorable levels of fibrinogen in middle age. Effect modification was observed by sex (P < .005) such that compared with the stable-low group, differences in high-density lipoprotein and abdominal obesity were only observed in female individuals. The stable-high and teacher-identified adolescent-onset groups had elevated risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.501-2.350 and hazard ratio, 1.412; 95% CI, 1.174-1.698). Psychopathology-associated mortality was higher in both groups but unintentional injuries-associated mortality only in the stable-high group. Experiencing affective symptoms and conduct problems in childhood and adolescence is associated with less favorable levels of biomarkers 28 years later and elevated risk of premature mortality. These findings, if causal and generalizable to younger cohorts, may imply that effective interventions on early-life mental health have the potential to shift the distribution of risk and improve population health.

Association of Childhood Psychomotor Coordination With Survival Up to 6 Decades Later

Poorer performance on standard tests of motor coordination in children has emerging links with sedentary behavior, obesity, and functional capacity in later life. These observations are suggestive of an untested association of coordination with health outcomes, including mortality. To examine the association of performance on a series of psychomotor coordination tests in childhood with mortality up to 6 decades later. The British National Child Development Study (1958 Birth Cohort Study) is a prospective cohort study based on a nationally representative sample of births from England, Scotland, and Wales. A total of 17 415 individuals had their gross and fine motor psychomotor coordination assessed using 9 tests at ages 11 and 16 years. Data analysis for the present study was conducted from October 2016 to December 2019. All-cause mortality as ascertained from a vital status registry and survey records. In this birth cohort study of 17 415 individuals who underwent a series of psychomotor coordination tests in childhood, follow up was conducted over several decades. Of the analytical sample of 12 678 individuals, 51% were male, and 72% came from a lower social group. Mortality surveillance between ages 12 and 58 years in an analytical sample of 17 062 men and women yielded 1072 deaths (766 661 person-years at risk). In survival analyses with adjustment for sex, higher scores on 7 of the 9 childhood coordination tests were associated with a lower risk of mortality in a stepwise manner. After controlling for early-life socioeconomic, health, cognitive, and developmental factors, lower mortality was statistically significantly associated with 3 tests: ball catching at age 11 years (0-8 vs 10 catches: hazard ratio [HR], 1.57; 95% CI, 1.19-2.07), match-picking at age 11 years (>50 vs 0-36 seconds: HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.09-1.63), and hopping at age 16 years (very unsteady vs very steady: HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.01-1.63). The results of this cohort study suggest that childhood motor coordination is associated with lower mortality up to middle-age; these findings require replication.

The effect of school sports facilities on physical activity, health and socioeconomic status in adulthood

This paper focuses on the long-term impacts of attending a high school with inadequate sports facilities. We use prospective data from the British National Child Development Study, a continuing panel of a cohort of 17,634 children born in Great Britain during a single week of March 1958. Our empirical approach exploits the educational system they were exposed to: children were sorted by educational ability at age 11, but conditional on educational ability, attended their closest school. This produces quasi-random variation in the quality of the school sports facilities across respondents. We use this variation between cohort members residing within the same local authority area, and focus on outcome measures of physical activity, health, health-related lifestyle activities, and socioeconomic status, collected at ages between 33 and 50 years. We control for any potential links between the inadequacy of sports facilities and inadequacy of other facility types, and test that allocation to school type is random with respect to pre-high school observables. We find that attending a school with inadequate sports facilities led to a statistically significant, modest decrease in the likelihood of physical activity participation during adulthood. In contrast, we find no evidence that inadequate sports facilities worsened adulthood measures of physical and mental health, lifestyle or socioeconomic status.

For richer, for poorer: the relationship between adolescent obesity and future household economic prosperity

Adolescent obesity not only has serious long-term health implications, but also the potential to lead to a socioeconomic trajectory of lower earnings and household income. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of such outcomes across the life course are poorly understood. Using birth cohort data from the British National Child Development Study (1958 to 2008), we examined the relationship between adolescent obesity (at age 16) and future household income, employment, wages, marriage and spousal earnings when individuals were in their 30s, 40s and 50s. We additionally investigated the role of obesity persistence from childhood (age 11) through to adulthood (age 33). After adjusting for a rich set of childhood characteristics, compared to normal weight, obesity at age 16 was associated with significantly lower levels of future household income for women (by approximately 14%), but not men. This household income penalty was greater for women with obesity in both childhood and adulthood. The household income penalty for women appeared to be driven by a lower likelihood of marriage and lower spousal earnings for those who were married, and not by their own wage penalty in the labour market. The spousal earnings penalty occurred even when obesity did not persist into adulthood.

DO BIOMARKERS VARY BY SOCIAL CLASS, EDUCATION AND REGION AND IS MIGRATION IMPORTANT? EVIDENCE FROM A COHORT OF BRITISH ADULTS.

The aim of this study was to test whether Body Mass Index (BMI), waist circumference, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, Forced Expiratory Volume (FEV1) and Peak Expiratory Flow (PEF) vary in relation to social class at birth and adulthood, educational level and region of residence, and also with inter-generational social, educational and regional mobility/migration. The study used 5702 adults (2894 males and 2718 females) from the longitudinal British National Child Development Study (all children born in England, Scotland and Wales during the first week in March 1958 with follow-up throughout childhood and adulthood, most recently at 55 years of age). In both sexes BMI and waist circumference tended to increase from social classes I+II to IV+V and higher social class was associated with higher mean FEV1 and PEF. Better-educated adults tended to have lower BMI and waist circumference, and higher mean FEV1 and PEF. Women from Wales had the highest mean BMI and waist circumference but the lowest mean PEF, while women in Scotland had the highest mean systolic blood pressure and the lowest mean FEV1. For men only, FEV1 and PEF showed regional variation and the lowest mean FEV1 was in Wales and the lowest PEF in Yorkshire &amp; Humberside. Inter-generational social mobility was not found to be associated with any of the biomarkers, while educational mobility was related only to FEV1 and PEF. In both sexes, in unadjusted regression analysis regional migrant cohort members tended to have a lower mean BMI than sedentes. Regional male migrants also tended to have a lower waist circumference and a higher FEV1 and PEF than sedentes.

The role of parental cognitive ageing in the intergenerational mobility of cognitive abilities

This paper studies intergenerational transmission of cognitive abilities from parents to children, highlighting the role of parental cognitive ageing measured during adulthood, net of their cognitive abilities measured in adolescence. We investigate the life-cycle of parental cognitive abilities on offspring’s cognitive abilities within the British National Child Development Study (NCDS). We find that children benefit not only from the stock of cognitive abilities their mothers and fathers hold as adolescents, but also from cognitive evolution their parents achieve as adults. Furthermore, we find that favourable parental cognitive ageing is particularly important for low ability offspring, pointing to a potential role of cognition in delivering more effective mitigation and nurturing. When analysing three subsequent generations, we find that the transmission of late parental cognition is strong in the offspring with high education origins, in particular for the those in the upper tail of the cognitive abilities distribution. We quantify the economic impact of the cognitive ageing transmission, and find that one standard deviation increase in late parental cognition can be approximated to an average of 1.7% increase in offspring earnings.

Housing conditions and birth outcomes: The National Child Development Study

BackgroundDespite their importance to respiratory and other health outcomes, housing conditions have been little-studied with respect to perinatal outcomes. Methods1927 participants in the British National Child Development Study reported on housing conditions and pregnancy outcomes, including presence/severity of mold/dampness; type of heating; and whether remodeling of various sorts had been conducted. Crowding, based on the number of people in the residence and the number of rooms, was also considered. Outcomes assessed were low birthweight (< 2500g), preterm birth (< 37 weeks), and small-for-gestational-age (< 10th percentile for gestational age). Multiple logistic regression with adjustment for maternal, sociodemographic, and housing factors was conducted. ResultsWomen who reported serious problems with mold were more likely to give birth to a low birthweight (adjusted OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.13–3.47) or small-for-gestational-age (2.06, 1.25–3.38) baby; no consistent associations were seen with preterm birth. Crowding was associated only with small-for-gestational-age (1.73, 1.11–2.76). ConclusionsExposure to mold or dampness, and housing conditions generally, is a potentially important but under-investigated aspect of women's lives during pregnancy. Future studies should more thoroughly investigate housing characteristics and their relationship with birth outcomes.

Childhood and adult socioeconomic position interact to predict health in mid life in a cohort of British women.

BackgroundLow childhood socioeconomic position (cSEP) is associated with poorer adult health, even after adult socioeconomic position (aSEP) is adjusted for. However, whether cSEP and aSEP combine additively or non-additively in predicting adult health is less well studied. Some evidence suggests that the combination of low cSEP and low aSEP is associated with worse health than would be predicted from the sum of their individual effects.MethodsUsing data from female members of the British National Child Development Study cohort, we developed continuous quantitative measures of aSEP and cSEP, and used these to predict self-rated health at ages 23, 33, and 42.ResultsLower aSEP predicted poorer heath at all ages. Lower cSEP predicted poorer health at all ages, even after adjustment for aSEP, but the direct effects of cSEP were substantially weaker than those of aSEP. At age 23, the effects of cSEP and aSEP were additive. At ages 33 and 42, cSEP and aSEP interacted, such that the effects of low aSEP on health were more negative if cSEP had also been low.ConclusionsAs women age, aSEP and cSEP may affect their health interactively. High cSEP, by providing a good start in life, may be partially protective against later negative impacts of low aSEP. We relate this to the extended ‘silver spoon’ principle recently documented in a non-human species.

Is mid-life social participation associated with cognitive function at age 50? Results from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS)

BackgroundSome studies have indicated that social engagement is associated with better cognitive outcomes. This study aimed to investigate associations between life-course social engagement (civic participation) and cognitive status at age 50, adjusting for social networks and support, behavioural, health, social and socio-economic characteristics.MethodsThe vehicle for the study was the National Child Development Study (1958 Birth Cohort Study), which is a general population sample in England, Scotland and Wales (9119: 4497 men and 4622 women) participating in nationally representative, prospective birth cohort surveys. The primary outcome variable was cognitive status at age 50, measured by memory test (immediate and delayed word recall test) and executive functioning test (word fluency and letter cancelation tests). The influence of hypothesised predictor variables was analysed using linear multiple regression analysis.ResultsCognitive ability at age 11 (β = 0.19;95% CI = 0.17 to 0.21), participation in civic activities at ages 33 (0.12; 0.02 to 0.22) and 50 (0.13; 0.07 to 0.20), frequent engagement in physical activity (sport) (β from 0.15 to 0.18), achieving higher level qualifications (β from 0.23 to 1.08), and female gender (β = 0.49;95% CI = 0.38 to 0.60) were positively, significantly and independently associated with cognitive status at age 50. Having low socio-economic status at ages 11 (β from -0.22 to -0.27) and 42 (β from -0.28 to -0.38), and manifesting worse mental well-being at age 42 (β = -0.18; 95% CI = -0.33 to -0.02) were inversely associated with cognitive status at age 50. The proportion of explained variance in the multiple regression model (18%), while modest, is impressive given the multi-faceted causal nature of cognitive status.ConclusionsThe results indicate that modest associations between adult social engagement and cognitive function at age 50 persist after adjusting for covariates which included health, socio-economic status and gender, supporting theories of neuroplasticity. In addition to the continuing emphasis on physical activity, the encouragement of civic participation, at least as early as mid-life, should be a targeted policy to potentially promote and protect cognitive function in later mid-life.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40359-016-0164-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Life-course partnership history and midlife health behaviours in a population-based birth cohort

BackgroundMarital and partnership history is strongly associated with health in midlife and later life. However, the role of health behaviours as an explanatory mechanism remains unclear. The aim of this...

Health shocks, disability and work

This paper focuses on the relation between health shocks and the onset of a disability and employment outcomes. We estimate an event-history model using data from the British National Child Development Study (NCDS), where accidents causing a unscheduled hospitalization are the measure for unanticipated health shocks. Our results show that experiencing such a health shock substantially increases the likelihood of the onset of a disability, while it does not have direct effects on employment at later ages. This finding is used to simulate the causal effects of the onset of a disability on later employment outcomes. These simulations show that about two-third of the association between disability and employment can be explained by the causal effect of the onset of a disability on employment. The remaining one-third is selection. For men and lower-educated workers the association is mainly explained by the causal effect, while for women selection is more important.