To improve the precision prevention of gas extraction borehole deformation and collapse, it is an important prerequisite to achieve precise monitoring of boreholes. This work is based on distributed optical fiber monitoring and Brillouin Optical Time Domain Analysis Technique (BOTDA). We carried out simulation and validation experiments of borehole plugging with different particle size ratios, constructed a mathematical model for calculating the plugging rate (denoted by ω) of boreholes, and put forward a new methodology for accurate monitoring and evaluation of gas extraction boreholes. The experimental results show that there is a linear relationship between the strain of optical fiber (denoted by ε), the accumulation mass of the simulated coal samples (denoted by m), and the deformation collapse of the borehole. And a mathematical model for calculating the plugging rate of boreholes with more universality has been built by introducing the ratio, volumetric, and strain correction coefficients (denoted by φ, β, and γ). Based on the verification experiment, it was found that the change in the actual and theoretical plugging rates is consistent. With the increase in the ratio of medium coal (2.0–5.0 cm), the plugging rate error decreases first and then increases. The maximum errors are −18.36 % and 19.04 %, but the plugging rate results are still within the middle boundaries of the collapsed boreholes (29.31 % to 75.07 %) and have a neglected effect on the stage classification. Inevitable errors in model construction and actual accumulation errors are two important factors contributing to errors in mathematical models. Taking ω as 0 %, 27.71+40.05·rord.-2%, 74.50+14.13·rord.-2%, and ε limit value 143.77·φ·γ με as the critical value to distinguish the primary, middle, and late periods of borehole collapse. In this work, a new technology of borehole monitoring and evaluation with plugging rate and strain critical value as evaluation indexes is proposed, which can provide a reference for accurate monitoring of drainage boreholes and gas prevention.