Large scale afforestation (i.e., establishment of forests on farmland, grassland and other land not previously forested) is increasingly regarded as a cost-effective option to mitigate climate change by promoting carbon sequestration. However, this strategy can have negative biodiversity impacts, potentially causing the loss and fragmentation of open habitats of conservation value, as well as edge effects that can extend well beyond forest boundaries. Mitigating impacts of afforestation programs thus requires a detailed understanding of the mechanisms whereby they affect biodiversity, particularly where new plantations are established close to areas important for open habitat species. Here, we examined how afforestation with oak, pine or eucalyptus trees, commonly planted in Mediterranean Europe, may have distinct effects on nest predation risk of grassland birds in southern Portugal. We used artificial nests with quail eggs and camera traps to: (i) identify nest predators and estimate predation risk of ground-nesting birds in grasslands adjacent to oak, pine and eucalyptus plantations across a distance gradient (0 m to 300 m) from the plantation edge; and (ii) examine how predation risk was influenced by avian predator abundance, sward height and vegetation clearing for photo-monitoring (nest-site manipulation), and their interactions with plantation type. Carrion crow was by far the main egg predator identified, followed by Montagu’s harrier, raven and magpie. Overall, nest predation risk and predator abundance were higher around eucalyptus plantations, compared to either pine or oak plantations. Predation decreased with increasing sward height, but this effect was less noticeable when vegetation around nests was cleared. In pine and oak plantations, predation risk was slightly higher close to edges, and decreased with distance from the edge. Conversely, in eucalyptus plantations predation was lower close to edges, and increased with distance to edges. Distance effects around eucalyptus plantation were, however, absent in manipulated nests. Overall, results show that afforestation with different tree species has distinct impacts on predation risk of artificial nests in Mediterranean farmland. This is probably a consequence of an increasing structural complexity of the plantations, from oak to eucalyptus, driven by differences in tree growth rates and undergrowth cover. These findings suggest that farmland afforestation should favour agro-forest plantations with slow growing species (oak and pine) to mitigate negative effects on breeding grassland birds in adjacent open habitats.
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