This study aimed to develop a methodological framework for predicting shoreline dynamics using machine learning techniques, focusing on analyzing generalized data without distinguishing areas with higher or lower retreat rates. Three sites along the southwestern Kara Sea coast were selected for this investigation. The study analyzed key coastal features, including lithology, permafrost, and geomorphology, using a combination of field studies and remote sensing data. Essential datasets were compiled and formatted for computer-based analysis. These datasets included information on permafrost and the geomorphological characteristics of the coastal zone, climatic factors influencing the shoreline, and measurements of bluff top positions and retreat rates over defined time periods. The positions of the bluff tops were determined through a combination of imagery with varying resolutions and field measurements. A novel aspect of the study involved employing geostatistical methods to analyze erosion rates, providing new insights into the shoreline dynamics. The data analysis allowed us to identify coastal areas experiencing the most significant changes. By continually refining neural network models with these datasets, we can improve our understanding of the complex interactions between natural factors and shoreline evolution, ultimately aiding in developing effective coastal management strategies.
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